国际金融全册完整教学课件1.ppt

1、国际金融全册完整教学课件1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-1 International Finance Lecturer: Fu Bo Email: Tel: 13560090601 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-2 International Finance Book for Use: In

2、ternational Financial Management Author: Choel S. Sun 6th Edition Press: China Machine Press For supplemented material of the book, please access to: http:/ INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Second Edition 1 1 Globalization and International Finance (Chapter 1) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyr

3、ight 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-4 Essential Readings P4-19 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-5 Whats Special about “ International Finance”? lForeign Exchange risk and political Risk lMarket Imperfections lE

4、xpanded Opportunity McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-6 Whats Special about “International” Finance? lForeign Exchange Risk nThe risk that foreign currency profits may evaporate in your home currency due to unanticipated unfavorable exchange r

5、ate movements. lPolitical Risk nSovereign governments have the right to regulate the movement of goods, capital, and people across their borders. These laws sometimes change in unexpected ways. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-7 lMarket Imper

6、fections nLegal restrictions on free movement of goods, people, and money nTransactions costs nShipping costs nTax arbitrage Whats Special about “International” Finance? McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-8 lExpanded Opportunity Set nFirms can

7、locate their production in any country or region of the world to maximize their profits. nFirms can also raise funds in any capital market where the cost of capital is the lowest. Whats Special about “International” Finance? McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rig

8、hts reserved. 1-9 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-10 lDeregulation of Financial Markets coupled with lAdvances in Technology have greatly reduced information and transactions costs, which has led to: lFinancial Innovations, such as nCurrency

9、 futures and options nMulti-currency bonds nCross-border stock listings nInternational mutual funds Reasons for Rapid Globalization INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Second Edition 2 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-12 Essentia

10、l Readings P29-49 P53-57 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-13 International Monetary System lInternational monetary system can be defined as the institutional framework in which international payments are made, movements of capital are accommo

11、dated , and exchange rates among currencies are determined. lIt is a complex whole of arrangements, rules, institutions, mechanisms, and policies regarding exchange rates, international payments, and the flow of capital. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights

12、reserved. 2-14 Main Contents lEvolution of the International Monetary System lRelated Theories: Trilemma and Optimum Currency Areas. lThe Asian Currency Crisis McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-15 Evolution of the International Monetary System

13、 lBimetallism: Before 1875 lClassical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 lInterwar Period: 1915-1944 lBreton Woods System: 1945-1972 lThe Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973- Present McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-16 Bimetallism: Before 1875 lA “doub

14、le standard” in the sense that both gold and silver were used as money. lBoth gold and silver were used as international means of payment and the exchange rates among currencies were determined by either their gold or silver contents. lGrashamlaw phenomenon has only made the less valuable metal to c

15、irculate. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-17 Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 lDuring this period in most major countries: nGold alone was assured of unrestricted coinage nThere was two-way convertibility between gold and national currenci

16、es at a stable ratio. nGold could be freely exported or imported. lThe exchange rate between two countrys currencies would be determined by their relative gold contents. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-18 Classic Gold Standard lFor Example:

17、lIf 1 ounce gold=12Francs l 1 ounce gold=6pounds lThen 1pound=2Francs McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-19 Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 lAdvantages of the Gold Standard: lHighly stable exchange rates under the classical gold standard pro

18、vided an environment that was conducive to international trade and investment. lMisalignment of exchange rates and international imbalances of payment were automatically corrected by the price-specie-flow mechanism. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reser

19、ved. 2-20 Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 lThere are shortcomings: nThe supply of newly minted gold is so restricted that the growth of world trade and investment can be hampered for the lack of sufficient monetary reserves. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All

20、rights reserved. 2-21 Interwar Period: 1915-1944 lExchange rates fluctuated as countries widely used “predatory” depreciations of their currencies as a means of gaining advantage in the world export market. lAttempts were made to restore the gold standard, but participants lacked the political will

21、to “follow the rules of the game”. lThe result for international trade and investment was profoundly detrimental. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-22 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 lNamed for a 1944 meeting of 44 nations at Bretton Woods, Ne

22、w Hampshire. lThe purpose was to design a postwar international monetary system. lThe goal was exchange rate stability without the gold standard. lThe result was the creation of the IMF and the World Bank. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-23

23、Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 lBritish Pound German Mark French Franc l USD l Pegged at $35/oz l Gold McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-24 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 lUnder the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at

24、 $35 per ounce and other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar. lEach country was responsible for maintaining its exchange rate within 1% to 2.25% of the adopted par value by buying or selling foreign reserves as necessary. lThe Bretton Woods system was a dollar-based gold exchange standard. McG

25、raw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-25 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 lCollapse of the System nTriffin Paradox nThe rapid development of Germany, France and Japan McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reser

26、ved. 2-26 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 lThe process of the collapse of the system nThe first Dollar crisis:1960 lThe creation of the Swap Agreement ,and the Gold Pool nThe second Dollar crisis:1968 lThe two-tier gold price system , and The creation of SDR nThe third Dollar crisis:1971 lThe creati

27、on of the Smithsonnian Agreement McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-27 The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973-Present. lThe flexible exchange rate regime was ratified after the settlement of the Jamaica Agreement in 1976. nFlexible exchange ra

28、te were declared to IMF members, and central banks were allowed to intervene in the exchange market. nGold was officially abandoned as an international reserve. nNon-oil-exporting countries and less developed countries were given great access to IMF funds. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McG

29、raw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-28 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-29 The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973-Present. lPlaza Accord : In Sept.1985, the so-called G5 countries reached Plaza Accord. They agreed that it would b

30、e desirable for the dollar to depreciate against most major currencies to solve the US trade deficit. lLouvre Accord: To address the problem of exchange rate volatility , the G-7 countries signed the Louvre Accord.This marked the inception of the managed-float system . McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 20

31、01 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-30 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements lThe Fixed lThe floating nFree floating nManaged floating lThe Pegged System nCurrency Board nPegged within crawling bands nPegged within horizontal bands n. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McG

32、raw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-31 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements lFixed nExchange rates are either held constant or allowed to fluctuate within very narrow boundaries. Examples are Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,

33、 Inc. All rights reserved. 2-32 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements lThe Floating nFree Float :The exchange rate is market determined, with any foreign exchange intervention aimed at moderating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the exchange rate rather than at establishing a lev

34、el for it. Examples include the US, the UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Korea, and Mexico. nManaged Float :The monetary authority influences the movements of the exchange rate through active intervention in the foreign exchange market without specifying a preanounced path for the exchange

35、 rate. Examples are China, Singapore, Russia, Thailand, India .etc. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-33 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements lThe Currency board arrangement: A monetary regime based on an explicit legislative commitment to excha

36、nge domestic currency for a specified foreign currency at a fixed exchange rate, combined with restrictions on the issuing authority to ensure the fulfillment of its legal obligation. Examples are China-Hong Kong SAR fixed to the USD; and Estonia fixed to Euro. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by Th

37、e McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-34 Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes lArguments in favor of fixed exchange rate system: nLess foreign exchange risk, helpful to foreign trade and investment. Arguments AGAIST fixed exchange rate system nexposure to currency crisis neasy

38、transmission of inflation nLoss of monetary policy autonomy McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-35 Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes lArguments in favor of flexible exchange rates: nEasier external adjustments. nNational policy autonom

39、y. nSpeculation avoidance lArguments against flexible exchange rates: nExchange rate uncertainty may hamper international trade. nNo safeguards to prevent crises. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-36 Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes

40、 lThe disadvantage of the pegging system: nThe countrys economy is highly influenced by the pegged country. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-37 Question lQustion 1 lThe Hong Kong Dollars value is pegged to the U.S. Dollar. Explain how the fol

41、lowing patterns would be affected by appreciation in the Japanese Yen against U.S. dollar: l(a) Hong Kong exports to Japan l(b) Hong Kong exports to the United States. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-38 What a monetary system should a countr

42、y adopt？ lThe Trilemma by Mundell: nWhen money can move freely across borders, policy markers must choose between exchange-rate stability and an independent monetary policy. They cant have both. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-39 Current Exc

43、hange Rate Arrangements l Liquidity l Confidence Adjustment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-40 The Theory of the Optimum Currency Areas lThe theory founded by Professor Robert Mundell holds that the relevant criterion for identifying and des

44、igning a common currency is the degree of factor( capital and labor)mobility within the zone; a high degree of factor mobility would provide an adjustment mechanism, providing an alternative to country-specific monetary adjustment. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

45、All rights reserved. 2-41 41 The Map of Europe 41 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-42 The Process of European Monetary Union lThe Werner Report: 1969 nThe Snake floating System: nThe establishment of the European Unit of Account lThe European

46、 Monetary System set up in 1979 nEuropean currency unit nEuropean monetary fund lThe Maastricht Treaty signed in 1991 nIntroduce a common currency nThe European central bank, to be located in Frankfurt, Germany will conduct monetary policy in the European Union. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by T

47、he McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-43 The Benefits of European Monetary Union lSaving Transaction costs lElimination of forex uncertainty lPromoting corporate restructuring via merger and acquisitions. lCreating conditions conducive to continental capital markets lPolitical cooper

48、ation and peace in Europe. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-44 The Cost Of International Monetary Umion lLoss of national monetary policy independence. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

49、-45 The Asian Currency Crisis lThe three currency crisis in the 1990th nThe ERM currency crisis in 1992 nThe Mexico Peso crisis in 1994 nThe Asian currency crisis in 1997 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-46 The Asian Currency Crisis lThe Asian currency crisis turned out to be far more serious than the Mexican peso crisis in terms of the extent of the contagion and the severity of the resultant economic and social costs. lMany firms with foreign currency bonds were forced into bankruptcy. lThe region experienced a deep, widespread reces