投资学：Chap021.ppt

1、INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin CHAPTER 21 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-2 A firms value comes from its earnings prospects, which are determined by: The global econom

2、ic environment Economic factors affecting the firms industry The position of the firm within its industry Fundamental Analysis INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-3 Stock markets around the world responded in unison to the financial crisis of 2008. Performance in countries and regions can be highly

3、 variable. It is harder for businesses to succeed in a contracting economy than in an expanding one. The Global Economy INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-4 Political risk: The global environment may present much greater risks than normally found in U.S.-based investments. Exchange rate risk: Chan

4、ges the prices of imports and exports. The Global Economy INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-5 Table 21.1 Economic Performance INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-6 The Domestic Macroeconomy Stock prices rise with earnings. P/E ratios are normally in the range of 12- 25. The first step in forecas

5、ting the performance of the broad market is to assess the status of the economy as a whole. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-7 Figure 21.2 S&P 500 Index versus Earnings Per Share INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-8 Gross domestic product Unemployment rates Inflation Interest rates Budget defi

6、cit Consumer sentiment The Domestic Macroeconomy: Key Variables INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-9 Demand and Supply Shocks Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economy Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs INVESTMENT

7、S | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-10 Demand-side Policy Fiscal policy the governments spending and taxing actions Monetary policy manipulation of the money supply INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-11 Fiscal Policy Most direct way to stimulate or slow the economy Formulation of fiscal policy is often a s

8、low, cumbersome political process INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-12 Fiscal Policy To summarize the net effect of fiscal policy, look at the budget surplus or deficit. Deficit stimulates the economy because: it increases the demand for goods (via spending) by more than it reduces the demand for

9、 goods (via taxes) INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-13 Monetary Policy Manipulation of the money supply to influence economic activity. Increasing the money supply lowers interest rates and stimulates the economy. Less immediate effect than fiscal policy Tools of monetary policy include open mar

10、ket operations, discount rate, reserve requirements. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-14 Supply-Side Policies Goal: To create an environment in which workers and owners of capital have the maximum incentive and ability to produce and develop goods. Supply-siders focus on how tax policy can be us

11、ed to improve incentives to work and invest. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-15 Business Cycles The transition points across cycles are called peaks and troughs. A peak is the transition from the end of an expansion to the start of a contraction. A trough occurs at the bottom of a recession jus

12、t as the economy enters a recovery. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-16 The Business Cycle Cyclical Industries Above-average sensitivity to the state of the economy. Examples include producers of consumer durables (e.g. autos) and capital goods (i.e. goods used by other firms to produce their ow

13、n products.) High betas Defensive Industries Little sensitivity to the business cycle Examples include food producers and processors, pharmaceutical firms, and public utilities Low betas INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-17 Leading indicators tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy. Coinc

14、ident indicators move with the market. Lagging indicators change subsequent to market movements. Economic Indicators INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-18 Figure 21.4 Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-19 Table 21.4 Useful Economic Indicator

15、s INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-20 Economic Calendar Many sources, such as The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Finance, publish the public announcement dates of various economic statistics. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-21 Figure 21.5 Economic Calendar at Yahoo! INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KAN

16、E, MARCUS 21-22 Industry Analysis It is unusual for a firm in a troubled industry to perform well. Economic performance can vary widely across industries. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-23 Figure 21.6 Return on Equity, 2009 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-24 Figure 21.7 Industry Stock Pri

17、ce Performance, 2009 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-25 Defining an Industry North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS codes Firms with the same four-digit NAICS codes are commonly taken to be in the same industry. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-26 Table 21.5 Examples of NAI

18、CS Industry Codes INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-27 Sensitivity to the Business Cycle 1. Sensitivity of sales: Necessities vs. discretionary goods Items that are not sensitive to income levels (such as tobacco and movies) vs. items that are, (such as machine tools, steel, autos) Three factors

19、determine how sensitive a firms earnings are to the business cycle. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-28 Figure 21.9 Industry Cyclicality INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-29 Sensitivity to the Business Cycle Firms with low operating leverage (less fixed assets) are less sensitive to business

20、conditions. Firms with high operating leverage (more fixed assets) are more sensitive to the business cycle. 2. Operating leverage : the split between fixed and variable costs INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-30 Table 21.6 Operating Leverage of Firms A and B Throughout the Business Cycle INVESTM

21、ENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-31 Sensitivity to the Business Cycle Interest is a fixed cost that increases the sensitivity of profits to the business cycle. 3. Financial leverage: the use of borrowing INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-32 Figure 21.10 A Stylized Depiction of the Business Cycle INV

22、ESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-33 Sector Rotation Portfolio is shifted into industries or sectors that should outperform, according to the stage of the business cycle. Peaks natural resource extraction firms Contraction defensive industries such as pharmaceuticals and food INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KA

23、NE, MARCUS 21-34 Sector Rotation Trough capital goods industries Expansion cyclical industries such as consumer durables INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-35 Figure 21.11 Sector Rotation INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-36 Industry Life Cycles Stage Start-up Consolidation Maturity Relative De

24、cline Sales Growth Rapid and increasing Stable Slowing Minimal or negative INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-37 Figure 21.12 The Industry Life Cycle INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-38 Which Life Cycle Stage is Most Attractive? Quote from Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street: Many people pref

25、er to invest in a high-growth industry, where theres a lot of sound and fury. Not me. I prefer to invest in a low- growth industry. . . . INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-39 Which Life Cycle Stage is Most Attractive? In a low-growth industry, especially one thats boring and upsets people such as

26、 funeral homes or the oil-drum retrieval business, theres no problem with competition. You dont have to protect your flanks from potential rivals . . . and this gives you the leeway to continue to grow.” Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 21-40 Industry Structure and Performance: Five Determinants of Competition 1. Threat of entry 2. Rivalry between existing competitors 3. Pressure from substitute products 4. Bargaining power of buyers 5. Bargaining power of suppliers