ch03-财货市场均衡-凯因斯课件.ppt

1、CHAPTER 3The Goods MarketCHAPTER 3Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoThe Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier BlanchardCHAPTER 3The Goods MarketCHAPTER 3Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoThe Goods MarketCopy

2、right 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard頭腦體操？為什麼會有失業？造成的原因是什麼？為什麼會有失業？造成的原因是什麼？19301930年代經濟大恐慌，為何有普遍失業的現象年代經濟大恐慌，為何有普遍失業的現象? ?失業產生究竟是因為企業生產萎縮失業產生究竟是因為企業生產萎縮( (供給不足供給不足) )所致，還是商品賣不出去所致，還是商品賣不出去( (需求需求不足不足) )所致所致? ?近一二年，全球及台灣普遍高失業率的現象，是供給面還是需

3、求面所引起？近一二年，全球及台灣普遍高失業率的現象，是供給面還是需求面所引起？台灣經濟不好，是那裡出了問題？中央要拼經濟，救台灣，如何拼法呢？台灣經濟不好，是那裡出了問題？中央要拼經濟，救台灣，如何拼法呢？過去台灣經濟不好時，政府總會提出振興投資方案、擴大內需政策過去台灣經濟不好時，政府總會提出振興投資方案、擴大內需政策-等，建等，建立在什麼觀點上？你認為成效又如何？立在什麼觀點上？你認為成效又如何？增加一元的投資支出或政府支出，可創造比一元還多的產出或所得，可能嗎？增加一元的投資支出或政府支出，可創造比一元還多的產出或所得，可能嗎？為何？為何？決定家計消費支出的因素為何？決定企業投資的關鍵又

4、如何？決定家計消費支出的因素為何？決定企業投資的關鍵又如何？節儉是美德嗎？一經濟社會人們想增加儲蓄，是否整個經濟社會儲蓄水準節儉是美德嗎？一經濟社會人們想增加儲蓄，是否整個經濟社會儲蓄水準就會增加？就會增加？政府財政政策，如何能達到經濟穩定的目的？利用何種財政工具？政府財政政策，如何能達到經濟穩定的目的？利用何種財政工具？國外經濟不景氣，台灣經濟跟著不好，如何說明這種現象？國外經濟不景氣，台灣經濟跟著不好，如何說明這種現象？Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prenti

5、ce Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard3 of 32簡單凱因斯模型-理論基礎依據：凱因斯依據：凱因斯19361936年就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論，年就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論，19301930年代經濟大恐慌年代經濟大恐慌提出。提出。是需要面經濟學，主要說明失業為何產生及如何解決失業問題。是需要面經濟學，主要說明失業為何產生及如何解決失業問題。當時勞動未充分就業，工資又無法向下調整，使企業缺乏增加勞動雇用的誘因。當時勞動未充分就業，工資又無法向下調整，使企業缺乏增加勞動雇用的誘因。解決失業問題之法在提高總需求，貨暢其流，東西有銷路，生產增加，勞

6、動需解決失業問題之法在提高總需求，貨暢其流，東西有銷路，生產增加，勞動需求自然增加。求自然增加。古典經濟學：是供給面經濟學，經由自由市場的價格機能，經濟常處於充分就古典經濟學：是供給面經濟學，經由自由市場的價格機能，經濟常處於充分就業狀態，資本、技術、勞動供給量等生產能量決定總供給，總需求只影響業狀態，資本、技術、勞動供給量等生產能量決定總供給，總需求只影響物價水準而已。物價水準而已。模式：依總合供需圖而言模式：依總合供需圖而言 凱因斯學派凱因斯學派ASAS水平，產出與就業決定於總需求。水平，產出與就業決定於總需求。 古典學派古典學派ASAS垂直，產出與就業決定於總供給，總需求只影響物價水準。

7、垂直，產出與就業決定於總供給，總需求只影響物價水準。 中間區中間區ASAS正斜率，總需求與總供給共同決定產出、就業與物價。正斜率，總需求與總供給共同決定產出、就業與物價。假定：物價不變，不計利率或金融假定：物價不變，不計利率或金融( (貨幣貨幣) )面的作用面的作用( (本章本章) )主旨：民間消費、企業投資、政府支出、對外貿易如何影響一國所得主旨：民間消費、企業投資、政府支出、對外貿易如何影響一國所得Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Mac

8、roeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard4 of 323-1 The Composition of GDPTable 3-1The Composition of U.S. GDP, 2006Billions of dollars Percent of GDPGDP (Y)13,246100.01 Consumption (C) 9,26970.02 Investment (I)2,16316.3Nonresidential 1,39610.5Residential7675.83 Government spending (G)2,52819.04 Net export

9、s7635.8 Exports (X)1,46611.0 Imports (IM)2,22916.85 Inventory investment490Source: Survey of Current Business, April 2007, Table 1-1-5.Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard5 of 323-1 The Composition of GDPC

10、onsumption (C) refers to the goods and services purchased by consumers.Investment (I), sometimes called fixed investment, is the purchase of capital goods. It is the sum of nonresidential investment and residential investment.Government Spending (G) refers to the purchases of goods and services by t

11、he federal, state, and local governments. It does not include government transfers, nor interest payments on the government debt.Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard6 of 323-1 The Composition of GDPImports

12、 (IM) are the purchases of foreign goods and services by consumers, business firms, and the U.S. government.Exports (X) are the purchases of U.S. goods and services by foreigners.Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier

13、 Blanchard7 of 323-1 The Composition of GDPInventory investment is the difference between production and sales.Net exports (X IM) is the difference between exports and imports, also called the trade balance.Exports imports trade surplusExports G, the government is running a budget surpluspublic savi

14、ng is positive.If T G, the government is running a budget deficitpublic saving is negative.Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard35 of 32The equation above states that equilibrium in the goods market require

15、s that investment equals savingthe sum of private plus public saving.This equilibrium condition for the goods market is called the IS relation. What firms want to invest must be equal to what people and the government want to save.ISTG()3-4 Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way 3-4 Investment

16、 Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibriumof Thinking about Goods-Market EquilibriumChapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard36 of 32Consumption and saving decisions are one a

17、nd the same.SYTC01()SYTcc YTSccYT 011 ()()The term (1 c1) is called the propensity to save.01111YcIGcTcIccYTTG 011 ()()()Investment Equals Saving: An AlternativeInvestment Equals Saving: An AlternativeWay of Thinking about Goods-Market EquilibriumWay of Thinking about Goods-Market EquilibriumChapter

18、 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard37 of 32求解均衡所得求解均衡所得Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard38 of 32The Paradox of Sa

19、vingThe paradox of saving (or the paradox of thrift) is that as people attempt to save more, the result is both a decline in output and unchanged saving.Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard39 of 32均衡所得變動政府

20、部門主旨：主旨： 政府支出及租稅政府支出及租稅( (均視為外生決定或自發性均視為外生決定或自發性) )等財政政策的等財政政策的對對( (均衡均衡) )所得的作用所得的作用均衡：均衡所得基本上為自發支出均衡：均衡所得基本上為自發支出 乘數乘數 Y Y1/(11/(1c c1 1) ) (Co(CoIoIoGoGoc c1 1To)To)乘數：乘數： 政府支出乘數政府支出乘數Y/GY/G1/(11/(1c c1 1) ) 租稅乘數租稅乘數Y/TY/Tc c1 1/(1/(1c c1 1) ) 平衡預算乘數平衡預算乘數1 1，在政府支出與租稅同額同向調整以保，在政府支出與租稅同額同向調整以保持預算平

21、衡下，所得等額變動。持預算平衡下，所得等額變動。Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard40 of 32穩定或權宜性的財政政策穩定財政政策穩定財政政策(stabilization fiscal policy)(stabilization fiscal policy)或權宜性的財政或權宜性的財政政策政策(discretionary fiscal policy)(discreti

22、onary fiscal policy)景氣過熱，則採緊縮性財政政策景氣過熱，則採緊縮性財政政策，降低政府支出或提高租稅降低政府支出或提高租稅景氣衰退，則採擴張性財政政策景氣衰退，則採擴張性財政政策，增加政府支出或降低租稅增加政府支出或降低租稅緊縮缺口緊縮缺口(deflationary or recessionary gap )(deflationary or recessionary gap )： 均衡所得低於充分就業之所得時，自發支出低於充分就業之均衡所得低於充分就業之所得時，自發支出低於充分就業之支出水準，稱之支出水準，稱之。此時，採增加政府支出或降低租稅此時，採增加政府支出或降低租稅(

23、 (擴張性擴張性財政政策財政政策) )可解決。可解決。 膨脹缺口膨脹缺口(inflationary gap)(inflationary gap)： 均衡所得高於充分就業之所得時，自發支出超過充分就業之均衡所得高於充分就業之所得時，自發支出超過充分就業之支出水準，稱之。此時，採降低政府支出或提高租稅支出水準，稱之。此時，採降低政府支出或提高租稅( (緊縮性緊縮性財政政策財政政策) )可解決可解決( (免除物價膨脹壓力免除物價膨脹壓力) )。Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as

24、 Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard41 of 32自動安定機能(built-in stabilizer)指數財政制度中，具有可緩和景氣波動或波幅的自指數財政制度中，具有可緩和景氣波動或波幅的自我調節功能。我調節功能。誘發性租稅：如誘發性租稅：如( (累進累進) )所得稅，當景氣轉壞，可使所得稅，當景氣轉壞，可使消費不致於下降太多，轉好時可免過熱。消費不致於下降太多，轉好時可免過熱。 也可降低外生變數變動對景氣影響程度，設也可降低外生變數變動對景氣影響程度，設T TToTotYtY時，自發支出乘數由時，自發支出乘數由1/(11

25、/(1c c1 1) )縮小為縮小為1/(11/(1 c c1 1 c c1 1t) t) 失業保險制：不景氣時，失業家庭可獲救濟金，使失業保險制：不景氣時，失業家庭可獲救濟金，使失業家庭消費不致於快速下降。失業家庭消費不致於快速下降。Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard42 of 323-5 Is the Government Omnipotent?A WarningC

26、hanging government spending or taxes is not always easy.The responses of consumption, investment, imports, etc, are hard to assess with much certainty.Anticipations are likely to matter.Achieving a given level of output can come with unpleasant side effects.Budget deficits and public debt may have a

27、dverse implications in the long run.Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard43 of 32均衡所得決定與變動國外部門主主 旨：考慮進出口貿易對旨：考慮進出口貿易對( (均衡均衡) )所得的作用所得的作用出口擴張：出口擴張： 國外景氣好轉、國外物價上升、國外進口障礙降低、國外景氣好轉、國外物價上升、國外進口障礙降低、 本國物價下降、本國貨幣

28、貶值、出口鼓勵措施本國物價下降、本國貨幣貶值、出口鼓勵措施-。進口增加：進口增加： 本國所得提高、物價上漲、本國貨幣升值、本國所得提高、物價上漲、本國貨幣升值、 進口品價格下跌、降低關稅及進口管制進口品價格下跌、降低關稅及進口管制-。函函 數：出口是外生數：出口是外生EXEXEXoEXo，進口是所得函數，進口是所得函數 IMIMIMoIMomYmY，m m是邊際進口傾向。是邊際進口傾向。均衡所得：均衡所得：Y Y1/(11/(1c c1 1m)m) (Co(CoIoIoGoGoEXoEXoIMoIMoc c1 1To)To)， 此時此時I IG GEXEXS ST TIMIM乘乘 數：數：(

29、(出口出口) )自發支出乘數自發支出乘數1/(11/(1 c c1 1m)m)， 自發進口乘數自發進口乘數1/(11/(1 c c1 1m) m) Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard44 of 32z z總支出函數與均衡所得總支出函數與均衡所得 單位：億元單位：億元YCIoGoEXoIMNXAE30024060906030304204003106090604020480

30、500380609060501054060045060906060060070052060906070-1066080059060906080-20720Chapter 3: The Goods MarketCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics, 5/e Olivier Blanchard45 of 32Key TermsConsumption (C)Investment (I)Fixed investmentNonresidential investmentResid

31、ential investmentGovernment spending (G)Government transfersImports (IM)Exports (X)Net exports (X-IM)Trade balanceTrade surplusTrade deficitInventory investmentIdentityDisposable income (YD)Consumption functionBehavioral equationLinear relationParameterPropensity to consume (c1)Endogenous variablesE

32、xogenous variablesFiscal policyEquilibriumEquilibrium in the goods marketEquilibrium conditionAutonomous spendingBalanced budgetMultiplierGeometric seriesEconometricsDynamicsForecast errorConsumer confidence indexPrivate saving (S)Public saving (T-G)Budget surplusBudget deficitSavingIS relationPropensity to saveParadox of saving