人力资源专业国际贸易全册配套完整课件.pptx

1、Slides prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.人力资源专业国际贸易人力资源专业国际贸易全册配套完整课件全册配套完整课件International Trade: Theory and Policy1-2Slides prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Chapter 1Introduction1-4Preview What is i

2、nternational economics about? What is international trade about? Why do we study international trade? How do we study international trade? International finance topics International trade vs. international finance 1-5I. What Is International Economics About? Nations are more closely linked through t

3、rade in goods and services, through flows of money, and through investment than ever before.（随着国际商品和服务贸易的发展、国际间资金的流动，以及跨国投资的发展，各个国家之间的经济联系变得更加紧密。） International economics is about how nations interact through trade in goods and services, through flows of money and through investment.国际经济学研究的是国际商品和服务

4、贸易的发展、国际间资金的流动，以及跨国投资的发展对各个国家的经济影响。国际经济学的一般理论包括国际贸易理论和政策、国际金融理论和国际投资理论等。1-6What Is International Economics About? (cont.) International trade as a fraction of the national economy has tripled(番了3倍) for the U.S. in the past 40 years. While both imports and exports have increased, imports have grown m

5、ore, leading to a large excess of imports over exports which is called as trade deficit (贸易逆差). Question: How is the United States able to pay for all those trade deficit? Compared to the U.S., other countries are even more tied to international trade.1-7Fig. 1-1: Exports and Imports as a Percentage

6、 of U.S. National IncomeSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisFrom 1960s to 1980, both exports and imports rose steadily as shares of U.S. income.Since 1980, imports have continued to rise,while exports have fluctuated sharply.1-8Fig. 1-2: Exports and Imports as Percentage of National Income in 20

7、05Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentInternational trade iseven more importantto most other countriesthan it is to the United States.1-9II. What Is International Trade About? International trade is the international exchange(国际交换) of goods and services between countries. Th

8、is type of trade gives rise to a world economy, in which prices, or supply and demand, affect and are affected by global events. There are some types of international trade: Import trade, export trade, transit trade(过境贸易/转口贸易) Visible trade(有形贸易), invisible trade inter-industry trade(产业间贸易) , intra-

9、industry trade(产业内贸易)1. What is International Trade1-10Basis for Trade(Why Trade Occurs?) The Mercantilists Views(重商主义) on Trade Trade Based on Absolute Advantage(绝对优势): the Adam Smith Model Trade Based on Comparative Advantage(比较优势): the David Ricardo Model Resource Endowments(资源禀赋) and Internation

10、al Trade: the Heckscher-Ohlin Theory Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition, and International Trade2. The Theory of International Trade1-11Patterns of Trade(Who sells what to whom?) That is, what commodities are traded and which commodities are exported and imported by each nation? Differences i

11、n climate and resources can explain why Brazil exports coffee and Australia exports iron ore. But why does Japan export automobiles, while the U.S. exports aircraft? Differences in labor productivity(劳动生产率) may explain why some countries export certain products. How relative supplies of capital, lab

12、or and land are used in the production of different goods and services may also explain why some countries export certain products.1-12Gains from Trade(贸易利得/收益)Several ideas underlie the gains from tradea. When a buyer and a seller engage in a voluntary transaction(自愿参与交易), both receive something th

13、at they want and both can be made better off.（国与国之间相互销售自己的产品和劳务通常总对双方都有利）Norwegian consumers could buy oranges through international trade that they otherwise would have a difficult time producing.The producer of the oranges receives income that it can use to buy the things that it desires.1-13Gains

14、 from Trade (cont.)b. Trade is predicted to benefit a country by making it more efficient when it exports goods which intensively use abundant resources and imports goods which intensively use scarce resources.（如果一个国家出口密集使用其丰富资源的商品，进口密集使用其稀缺资源的商品，那么该国会从这种贸易模式中受益。）c. When countries specialize, they m

15、ay also be more efficient due to large scale production.（当某些国家实现专业化生产时，他们可以从规模化生产中获得收益。）1-14Gains from Trade (cont.) d. Trade is predicted to benefit countries as a whole in several ways, but trade may harm particular groups (特定集团)within a country. International trade can adversely affect the owners

16、 of resources that are used intensively in industries that compete with imports.（与进口产品相竞争的产业密集使用的要素的所有者会因为贸易而受损）Trade may therefore have effects on the distribution of income within a country, such as workers and the owners of capital, skilled workers and unskilled workers.1-15Free Trade vs. Protect

17、ionism(How Much Trade?) The main idea of free trade(自由贸易) is that supply and demand factors, operating on a global scale, will ensure that production happens efficiently. Therefore, nothing needs to protect or promote trade and growth because market forces will do so automatically. In contrast, prot

18、ectionism(贸易保护主义) holds that regulation of international trade is important to ensure that markets function properly. Advocates of this theory believe that market inefficiencies may hamper the benefits of international trade and they aim to guide the market accordingly. 1-163. The Effects of Governm

19、ent Policies on Trade Policy makers affect the amount of trade through Tariffs(关税): a tax on imports or exports, Quotas(配额) :a quantity restriction on imports or exports, export subsidies(出口补贴): a payment to producers that export, or through other regulations (ex., product specifications) that exclu

20、de foreign products from the market, but still allow domestic products. What are the costs and benefits of these policies?1-17III. Why Do We Study International Trade? International trade makes life more beautiful 一个牛肉与土豆的例子。如果世界上只有两个人：养牛的一个牛肉与土豆的例子。如果世界上只有两个人：养牛的人和种土豆的人。如果两个人人和种土豆的人。如果两个人“老死不相往来老死不

21、相往来”，那么，那么，在吃了几个月烤牛肉、煮牛肉、炸牛肉和烧牛肉之后，养在吃了几个月烤牛肉、煮牛肉、炸牛肉和烧牛肉之后，养牛人肯定觉得自己并不怎么惬意；同样，一直吃土豆泥、牛人肯定觉得自己并不怎么惬意；同样，一直吃土豆泥、炸土豆、烤土豆和用贝壳烘土豆的农民肯定也有同感。如炸土豆、烤土豆和用贝壳烘土豆的农民肯定也有同感。如果牛肉和土豆之间展开贸易，这时每个人就都可以有汉堡果牛肉和土豆之间展开贸易，这时每个人就都可以有汉堡包和炸薯条了。包和炸薯条了。1-18Why Do We Study InternationalTrade? (cont.) Knowledge on International

22、trade helps consumers consume rationally. 我们的日常生活被大量国外的消费品所占据，宝洁、沃尔我们的日常生活被大量国外的消费品所占据，宝洁、沃尔玛、苹果、三星、索尼、微软、戴尔、奔驰、福特等等世玛、苹果、三星、索尼、微软、戴尔、奔驰、福特等等世界知名品牌产品已经成为我们生活中不可缺少的部分，国界知名品牌产品已经成为我们生活中不可缺少的部分，国际贸易学相关知识的学习有助于我们正确认识、购买和消际贸易学相关知识的学习有助于我们正确认识、购买和消费国外产品。费国外产品。1-19Why Do We Study InternationalTrade? (cont.

23、) Knowledge on International trade helps producers organize production effectively. 中国作为世界市场的重要组成部分，承担着世界分工的重中国作为世界市场的重要组成部分，承担着世界分工的重要角色。在这样的背景之下，生产者在生产决策、销售市要角色。在这样的背景之下，生产者在生产决策、销售市场、资金运用上都必须考虑世界政治、经济因素，尤其是场、资金运用上都必须考虑世界政治、经济因素，尤其是出口部门的生产者更需要掌握国际贸易学的相关知识和理出口部门的生产者更需要掌握国际贸易学的相关知识和理论。论。1-20Why Do W

24、e Study InternationalTrade? (cont.) Knowledge on International trade help us to better understand and analyze the economic problems in China and world. 为什么我国的许多产业，屡屡遭受以美国为首的西方大国的为什么我国的许多产业，屡屡遭受以美国为首的西方大国的反倾销？反倾销？ 为什么政府面对我国近几年不断扩大的贸易顺差情况不喜反为什么政府面对我国近几年不断扩大的贸易顺差情况不喜反忧？忧？ 为什么一方面中国与日本在历史问题上不断产生摩擦，而另为什么一

25、方面中国与日本在历史问题上不断产生摩擦，而另一方面中日之间又不断加深彼此间的经贸合作？一方面中日之间又不断加深彼此间的经贸合作？ 为什么为什么2008年从美国开始的金融危机可以牵连到欧盟、日本、年从美国开始的金融危机可以牵连到欧盟、日本、韩国、中国等一系列国家和地区，最终引发一场规模巨大的韩国、中国等一系列国家和地区，最终引发一场规模巨大的国际金融危机？国际金融危机？1-21IV. How Do We Study International Trade? Read classic books and literatures on international trade, understand

26、the main idea of the Great Economists in this field. Mater the analysis methods and tools of international trade. Attach importance to foreign language learning and the relevant professional courses. Pay attention to domestic and world economic dynamics.1. Some Requirements2. The Great Economists in

27、 the field of International Trade 亚当亚当斯密斯密（Adam Smith，1723-1790）：Absolute Advantage Theory。1776年出版的“An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”国民财富的性质和原因研究，简称国富论提出了绝对优势学说。 大卫大卫李嘉图李嘉图（David Ricardo ，1772-1823）：Comparative Advantage Theory。1817年出版政治经济学及赋税原理（Principles of Political

28、Economy and Taxation）一书提出了比较优势学说。1-22 赫克歇尔赫克歇尔（E.F.Heckscher，1879-1952 ）和俄林俄林（B. Ohlin，1899-1979）1933年共同提出了要素禀赋理论（H-O 贸易模型）。他们的代表作是：外贸对收入分配的影响，区间贸易和国际贸易论。俄林1977年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。 P.A.萨缪尔森萨缪尔森（Paul Anthony Samuelson，1915- ）：用数学方法证明了要素价格均等化定理、与斯托尔珀一起提出了Stolper-Samuelson 定理，1970年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。 W.里昂惕夫里昂惕夫（WLeontie

29、f，1906-1999）：建立了投入产出分析模型，提出了里昂惕夫悖论，大大地推动了国际贸易理论的发展，1973年获诺奖。 P.克鲁格曼克鲁格曼（P. Krugman，1953-）国际贸易新理论的主要倡导者，2008年获诺奖。1-233. Analysis Tools in Theory and Policy of International Trade Production Possibilities Curve/Frontier Supply Curve and Excess Supply Curve Demand Curve and Excess Demand Curve Producer

30、 Surplus, Consumer Surplus, and Gains from Trade Economies of Scale, Diseconomies of Scale, Constant Returns to Scale Indifference Curve1-244. Analysis Methods in International Trade General Equilibrium Analysis and Partial Equilibrium Analysis(一般均衡分析和局部均衡分析) Economic Analysis of Politics(政治经济学分析)1-

31、251-26V. International Finance Topics Balance of Payments(国际收支) Exchange Rate Determination (汇率的决定) International Policy Coordination (国际政策协调) The International Capital Market (国际资本市场)1-27VI. International Trade vs. International Finance International trade focuses on transactions of goods and servi

32、ces(商品和服务交易) across nations. These transactions usually involve a physical movement of goods or a commitment of intangible resources like labor services. International finance focuses on financial or monetary transactions(金融或货币交易) across nations. For example, purchases of U.S. dollars or financial a

33、ssets by Europeans. In the real world there is no simple dividing line between trade and money. For example, many monetary events have important consequences for trade.1-28Textbook and ReferencesPaul R. Krugman, Maurice Obsfeld. International Economics: Theory and Policy, eighth edition, 清华大学出版社.Dom

34、inick Salvatore. International Economics, eighth edition, 清华大学出版社。Robert C. Feenstra, Alan M. Taylor. International Trade, first edition, 中国人民大学出版社。余淼杰：国际贸易学：理论、政策与实证，北京大学出版社，2013年12月第2次印刷版。 海闻、P林德特、王新奎：国际贸易，上海人民出版社，2003年第1版。1-29Some Related Websites中华人民共和国商务部中华人民共和国商务部 中国国际贸易促进委员会中国国际贸易促进委员会 www.cc

35、pit.org世界贸易组织世界贸易组织 www.wto.org联合国商品贸易数据库联合国商品贸易数据库 http:/comtrade.un.org/db/dqQuickQuery.aspx世界银行世界银行 www.worldbank.org经合发展组织经合发展组织 www.oecd.org人大经济论坛人大经济论坛http:/bbs.pinggu.org中国经济学教育科研网中国经济学教育科研网http:/1-30Course Evaluation Class attendance 10% Class performance and homework 40% Final test 50%Slide

36、s prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Chapter 2World Trade: An Overview2-32Preview The largest trading partners of the U.S. Gravity model（引力模型）: influence of an economys size on trade distance and other factors that influent trade Borders and trade agr

37、eements(边界和贸易协定) Globalization(全球化): then and now Changing composition of trade(正在演变的贸易模式) Service outsourcing(服务外包)2-33Who Trades with Whom(谁和谁贸易)? The largest trading partners of the U.S. The 5 largest trading partners with the U.S. in 2006 were Canada, China, Mexico, Japan and Germany. The total

38、value imports from and exports to Canada in 2006 was about $500 billion dollars. The largest(top) 10 trading partners with the U.S. accounted for 68% of the value of U.S. trade in 2006.2-34Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006Source: U.S. Department of CommerceU.S. trademeasured as th

39、e sum of imports and exportsis mostly with 10 major partners. These 10 economies(top 10 trading partners) accounted for 68 percent of the value of U.S. trade in 2006.2-35Size Matters: The Gravity Model(规模问题：引力模型) The top 3 trading partners with the U.S. are Canada, China, Mexico. 3 of the top 10 tra

40、ding partners with the U.S. in 2006 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, UK, and France. Why does the U.S. trade most with these European countries and not other European countries? These countries have the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe(they are the three largest Eur

41、opean Economies).2-36Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United StatesSource: U.S. Department of Commerce,European CommissionThe scatter of points clusteredaround the dotted 45-degreeline, which means that, eachcountrys share of U.S. trade with Europe was

42、roughlyequal to that countrysshare of European GDP.That is, the value of tradebetween any two countriesis proportional to the twocountries GDPs.分布在45度线周围的散点表明，美国与欧洲某一国家之间的贸易规模与两国的经济规模成正比。2-37Size Matters: The Gravity Model (cont.) In fact, the size of an economy is directly related to the volume of

43、imports and exports. (贸易规模与经济规模直接相关) The trade between any two economies is larger, the larger is either economy. Larger economies produce more goods and services, so they have more to sell in the export market. Larger economies generate more income from the goods and services sold, so people are ab

44、le to buy more imports.2-38The Gravity Model In its basic form, the gravity model assumes that only size and distance(经济规模和距离) are important for trade in the following way:Tij = A x Yi x Yj /DijWhere Tij is the value of trade between country i and country j，A is a constant，Yi the GDP of country i，Yj

45、 is the GDP ofcountry j，Dij is the distance between country i and country j. The value of trade between any two countries is proportional to the two countries GDPs, and diminishes with the distance between the two countries. 两国之间的贸易规模与经济规模成正比，与两国之间的距离成反比。2-39The Gravity Model (cont.) In a slightly m

46、ore general form, the gravity model that is commonly estimated is Tij = A x Yia x Yjb /Dijcwhere a, b, and c are allowed to differ from 1. This equation says that the three things determine the volume of trade between two countries are the size of the two countries GDPs and the distance between the

47、countries, without specifically as assuming that（放松了假设） trade is proportional to the two GDPs and inversely proportional to distance.2-40The Gravity Model (cont.)u Distance(距离) between markets increases costs of transportation and services, and therefore the cost of imports and exports. There is a s

48、trong negative effect of distance on international trade. Distance may also influence personal contact and communication, which may influence trade. Ex. The United States North American neighbors trade so much with U.S. than its European partners.2-41The Gravity Model (cont.)Other things besides siz

49、e of economy and distance matter for trade: 1. Cultural affinity(文化相似度): if two countries have cultural ties, it is likely that they also have strong economic ties.uBecause of cultural affinity, Ireland trade considerably more with the U.S. than a gravity model predicted.2. Geography(地理位置): ocean ha

50、rbors and a lack of mountain barriers make transportation and trade easier.uRotterdam in Netherlands, Antwerp in Belgium are the famous ports in Europe).2-42The Gravity Model (cont.)3. Borders(边界): crossing borders involves formalities (手续) that take time and perhaps monetary costs like tariffs. 4.