国际金融全册配套最完整精品课件（英文版）.ppt

1、国际金融全册配套最国际金融全册配套最完整精品课件完整精品课件（英文版）（英文版）INTERNATIONALFINANCIALMANAGEMENTEUN / RESNICKSecond Edition1 1 Globalization and International Finance (Chapter 1)McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-2Essential Readings P4-19 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2

2、001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-3Whats Special about “ International Finance”? lForeign Exchange risk and political RisklMarket ImperfectionslExpanded OpportunityMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-4Whats Special ab

3、out “International” Finance?lForeign Exchange RisknThe risk that foreign currency profits may evaporate in your home currency due to unanticipated unfavorable exchange rate movements.lPolitical RisknSovereign governments have the right to regulate the movement of goods, capital, and people across th

4、eir borders. These laws sometimes change in unexpected ways.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-5lMarket ImperfectionsnLegal restrictions on free movement of goods, people, and moneynTransactions costsnShipping costsnTax arbitrageWhats Special a

5、bout “International” Finance?McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-6lExpanded Opportunity SetnFirms can locate their production in any country or region of the world to maximize their profits.nFirms can also raise funds in any capital market where

6、 the cost of capital is the lowest.Whats Special about “International” Finance?McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-7McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-8lDeregulation of Financial Markets co

7、upled withlAdvances in Technology have greatly reduced information and transactions costs, which has led to:lFinancial Innovations, such asnCurrency futures and optionsnMulti-currency bondsnCross-border stock listingsnInternational mutual fundsReasons for Rapid GlobalizationINTERNATIONALFINANCIALMAN

8、AGEMENTEUN / RESNICKSecond Edition2McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-10Essential Readings P29-49 P53-57McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-11International Monetary SystemlInternational mon

9、etary system can be defined as the institutional framework in which international payments are made, movements of capital are accommodated , and exchange rates among currencies are determined.lIt is a complex whole of arrangements, rules, institutions, mechanisms, and policies regarding exchange rat

10、es, international payments, and the flow of capital.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-12Main ContentslEvolution of the International Monetary SystemlRelated Theories: Trilemma and Optimum Currency Areas.lThe Asian Currency CrisisMcGraw-Hill/Ir

11、win Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-13Evolution of the International Monetary SystemlBimetallism: Before 1875lClassical Gold Standard: 1875-1914lInterwar Period: 1915-1944lBreton Woods System: 1945-1972lThe Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973-PresentMcGraw-Hi

12、ll/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-14Bimetallism: Before 1875lA “double standard” in the sense that both gold and silver were used as money.lBoth gold and silver were used as international means of payment and the exchange rates among currencies were de

13、termined by either their gold or silver contents.lGrashamlaw phenomenon has only made the less valuable metal to circulate.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-15Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914lDuring this period in most major countries:nGold

14、alone was assured of unrestricted coinagenThere was two-way convertibility between gold and national currencies at a stable ratio.nGold could be freely exported or imported.lThe exchange rate between two countrys currencies would be determined by their relative gold contents.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyri

15、ght 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-16Classic Gold StandardlFor Example:lIf 1 ounce gold=12Francsl 1 ounce gold=6poundslThen 1pound=2FrancsMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-17Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914lAd

16、vantages of the Gold Standard:lHighly stable exchange rates under the classical gold standard provided an environment that was conducive to international trade and investment.lMisalignment of exchange rates and international imbalances of payment were automatically corrected by the price-specie-flow

17、 mechanism.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-18Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914lThere are shortcomings:nThe supply of newly minted gold is so restricted that the growth of world trade and investment can be hampered for the lack of sufficient

18、 monetary reserves.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-19Interwar Period: 1915-1944lExchange rates fluctuated as countries widely used “predatory” depreciations of their currencies as a means of gaining advantage in the world export market.lAtte

19、mpts were made to restore the gold standard, but participants lacked the political will to “follow the rules of the game”.lThe result for international trade and investment was profoundly detrimental.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-20Bretton

20、 Woods System: 1945-1972lNamed for a 1944 meeting of 44 nations at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.lThe purpose was to design a postwar international monetary system.lThe goal was exchange rate stability without the gold standard.lThe result was the creation of the IMF and the World Bank.McGraw-Hill/Ir

21、win Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-21Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972lBritish Pound German Mark French Francl USDl Pegged at $35/ozl GoldMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-22Bretton Woods System: 1945-19

22、72lUnder the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce and other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar.lEach country was responsible for maintaining its exchange rate within 1% to 2.25% of the adopted par value by buying or selling foreign reserves as necessary.lT

23、he Bretton Woods system was a dollar-based gold exchange standard.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-23Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972lCollapse of the SystemnTriffin ParadoxnThe rapid development of Germany, France and JapanMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Co

24、pyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-24Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972lThe process of the collapse of the systemnThe first Dollar crisis:1960lThe creation of the Swap Agreement ,and the Gold PoolnThe second Dollar crisis:1968lThe two-tier gold price system , and The

25、 creation of SDRnThe third Dollar crisis:1971lThe creation of the Smithsonnian AgreementMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-25The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973-Present.lThe flexible exchange rate regime was ratified after the settlement of

26、 the Jamaica Agreement in 1976.nFlexible exchange rate were declared to IMF members, and central banks were allowed to intervene in the exchange market.nGold was officially abandoned as an international reserve.nNon-oil-exporting countries and less developed countries were given great access to IMF

27、funds.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-26McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-27The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973-Present.lPlaza Accord : In Sept.1985, the so-called G5 countries rea

28、ched Plaza Accord. They agreed that it would be desirable for the dollar to depreciate against most major currencies to solve the US trade deficit.lLouvre Accord: To address the problem of exchange rate volatility , the G-7 countries signed the Louvre Accord.This marked the inception of the managed-

29、float system .McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-28Current Exchange Rate ArrangementslThe Fixed lThe floatingnFree floatingnManaged floatinglThe Pegged SystemnCurrency BoardnPegged within crawling bandsnPegged within horizontal bandsn.McGraw-Hi

30、ll/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-29Current Exchange Rate ArrangementslFixednExchange rates are either held constant or allowed to fluctuate within very narrow boundaries. Examples are Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001

31、 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-30Current Exchange Rate ArrangementslThe FloatingnFree Float :The exchange rate is market determined, with any foreign exchange intervention aimed at moderating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the exchange rate rather

32、 than at establishing a level for it. Examples include the US, the UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Korea, and Mexico.nManaged Float :The monetary authority influences the movements of the exchange rate through active intervention in the foreign exchange market without specifying a preanou

33、nced path for the exchange rate. Examples are China, Singapore, Russia, Thailand, India .etc. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-31Current Exchange Rate ArrangementslThe Currency board arrangement: A monetary regime based on an explicit legisla

34、tive commitment to exchange domestic currency for a specified foreign currency at a fixed exchange rate, combined with restrictions on the issuing authority to ensure the fulfillment of its legal obligation. Examples are China-Hong Kong SAR fixed to the USD; and Estonia fixed to Euro. McGraw-Hill/Ir

35、win Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-32Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate RegimeslArguments in favor of fixed exchange rate system:nLess foreign exchange risk, helpful to foreign trade and investment.Arguments AGAIST fixed exchange rate systemnexposure to cur

36、rency crisisneasy transmission of inflationnLoss of monetary policy autonomyMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-33Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate RegimeslArguments in favor of flexible exchange rates:nEasier external adjustments.nNational po

37、licy autonomy.nSpeculation avoidancelArguments against flexible exchange rates:nExchange rate uncertainty may hamper international trade.nNo safeguards to prevent crises.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-34Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate R

38、egimeslThe disadvantage of the pegging system:nThe countrys economy is highly influenced by the pegged country.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-35QuestionlQustion 1lThe Hong Kong Dollars value is pegged to the U.S. Dollar. Explain how the fol

39、lowing patterns would be affected by appreciation in the Japanese Yen against U.S. dollar:l(a) Hong Kong exports to Japan l(b) Hong Kong exports to the United States.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-36What a monetary system should a country a

40、dopt？lThe Trilemma by Mundell:nWhen money can move freely across borders, policy markers must choose between exchange-rate stability and an independent monetary policy. They cant have both.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-37Current Exchange R

41、ate Arrangementsl Liquidityl Confidence AdjustmentMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-38The Theory of the Optimum Currency AreaslThe theory founded by Professor Robert Mundell holds that the relevant criterion for identifying and designing a com

42、mon currency is the degree of factor( capital and labor)mobility within the zone; a high degree of factor mobility would provide an adjustment mechanism, providing an alternative to country-specific monetary adjustment.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights re

43、served. 2-3939The Map of Europe39McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-40The Process of European Monetary UnionlThe Werner Report: 1969nThe Snake floating System:nThe establishment of the European Unit of AccountlThe European Monetary System set u

44、p in 1979nEuropean currency unitnEuropean monetary fundlThe Maastricht Treaty signed in 1991nIntroduce a common currencynThe European central bank, to be located in Frankfurt, Germany will conduct monetary policy in the European Union.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, In

45、c. All rights reserved. 2-41The Benefits of European Monetary UnionlSaving Transaction costslElimination of forex uncertaintylPromoting corporate restructuring via merger and acquisitions.lCreating conditions conducive to continental capital markets lPolitical cooperation and peace in Europe.McGraw-

46、Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-42The Cost Of International Monetary UmionlLoss of national monetary policy independence. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-43The Asian Currency CrisislThe thr

47、ee currency crisis in the 1990thnThe ERM currency crisis in 1992nThe Mexico Peso crisis in 1994nThe Asian currency crisis in 1997McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-44The Asian Currency CrisislThe Asian currency crisis turned out to be far more

48、serious than the Mexican peso crisis in terms of the extent of the contagion and the severity of the resultant economic and social costs.lMany firms with foreign currency bonds were forced into bankruptcy.lThe region experienced a deep, widespread recession.McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The Mc

49、Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-45McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-46McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-47Currency Crisis ExplanationslIn theory, a currencys value mirro

50、rs the fundamental strength of its underlying economy, relative to other economies. In the long run.lIn the short run, currency traders expectations play a much more important role.lIn todays environment, traders and lenders, using the most modern communications, act by fight-or-flight instincts. Fo