宏观经济理论和政策课件.ppt

1、宏观经济理论和政策：L5开放经济 国际商品和资本流动 名义汇率 真实汇率 蒙代尔弗莱明模型：固定汇率与资本完全流动 资本完全流动与可变汇率 开放经济 贸易联系 资本联系 为什么有国际贸易？谁受益？国际商品流动 贸易 贸易盈余NX0 贸易赤字NXC+I+G SI 外国资产？收入小于支出呢 1980年以前，比较平衡 1980年代主要因为储蓄减少，主要是政府赤字增加 1990年代，高科技投资带动的投资增加 2000年以后，小布什的赤字又增加了中国的资本流出图图2 2：中国国际收支年度顺差（2001 2007），单位：亿美元数据来源数据来源：国家外汇管理局网页 其中，2007年数据为估算，根据国家统计

2、局公布的2007年上半年的相应数值乘以2而得。01000200030004000500060002001年2002年2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年国际收支总顺差经常项目顺差资本与金融项目顺差报表项目报表项目 Items2007.08 2007.08 2007.09 2007.09 2007.10 2007.10 2007.11 2007.11 2007.12 2007.12 国外资产 Foreign Assets111215.90 115860.33 117752.33 122170.97 124825.18 外汇 Foreign Exchange108793.39 111

3、776.31 111841.27 115031.21 115168.71 货币黄金 Monetary Gold337.24 337.24 337.24 337.24 337.24 其他国外资产 Other Foreign Assets2085.27 3746.78 5573.82 6802.52 9319.23 对政府债权 Claims on Government8819.66 8825.32 8825.32 8825.32 16317.71 其中：中央政府 Of which:Central Government8819.66 8825.32 8825.32 8825.32 16317.71

4、对其他存款性公司债权 Claims on Other Depository Corporations 6611.83 6612.39 6581.30 6310.42 7862.80 对其他金融性公司债权 Claims on Other Financial Corporations16056.81 16023.29 16005.70 15950.40 12972.34 对非金融性公司债权 Claims on Non-financial Corporations63.68 63.68 63.68 63.68 63.59 其他资产 Other Assets11841.11 11975.88 1197

5、4.05 11979.20 7098.18 总资产总资产 Total Assets154608.99 159360.89 161202.38 165299.99 169139.80 储备货币 Reserve Money83639.33 88212.33 88615.90 92433.16#货币发行 Currency Issue30153.82 31804.81 30692.10 31389.64 32971.58 金融性公司存款 Deposits of Financial Corporations53215.72 56133.42 57661.01 60775.81 68415.86 其他存款

6、性公司 Other Depository Corporations53045.25 55979.20 57477.91 60569.24 68094.84 其他金融性公司 Other Financial Corporations170.47 154.22 183.10 206.57 321.02 非金融性公司存款 Deposits of Non-financial Corporations269.79 274.10 262.79 267.71 157.96 活期存款 Demand Deposits269.79 274.10 262.79 267.71 157.96 发行债券 Bond Issu

7、e40675.39 38945.73 37109.51 35667.62 34469.13 国外负债 Foreign Liabilities927.51 931.68 931.55 933.08 947.28 政府存款 Deposits of Government 20392.34 20496.85 22727.45 23159.58 17121.10 自有资金 Own Capital219.75 219.75 219.75 219.75 219.75 其他负债 Other Liabilities 8754.67 10554.55 11598.22 12886.80 14837.14 总负债总

8、负债 Total Liabilities#项项 目目行次行次差额差额贷贷 方方借借 方方一一.经常项目经常项目1 1249,865,995249,865,9951,144,498,9351,144,498,935894,632,940894,632,940 A.A.货物和服务货物和服务2 2208,912,147208,912,1471,061,681,5441,061,681,544852,769,397852,769,397 a.a.货物货物3 3217,746,060217,746,060969,682,307969,682,307751,936,247751,936,247 b.b.服

9、务服务4 4-8,833,913-8,833,91391,999,23791,999,237100,833,150100,833,150 1.运输5 5-13,353,74121,015,28534,369,026 2.旅游6 69,627,29633,949,00024,321,704 3.通讯服务7 7-26,202737,871764,073 4.建筑服务8 8702,9182,752,6392,049,721 5.保险服务9 9-8,282,919548,1768,831,094 6.金融服务1010-746,042145,425891,467 7.计算机和信息服务11111,218,

10、8602,957,7111,738,851 8.专有权利使用费和特许费1212-6,429,577204,5046,634,081 9.咨询1313-555,0667,834,1428,389,208 10.广告、宣传1414490,0731,445,032954,960 11.电影、音像151515,954137,433121,480 12.其它商业服务16168,432,22719,693,33411,261,106 13.别处未提及的政府服务171772,306578,685506,379千美元 B.B.收益收益181811,754,60711,754,60751,239,76151,2

11、39,76139,485,15339,485,153 1.职工报酬19191,989,5004,319,4932,329,993 2.投资收益20209,765,10846,920,26837,155,160 C.C.经常经常转移转移212129,199,24129,199,24131,577,63031,577,6302,378,3902,378,390 1.各级政府2222-146,54164,714211,255 2.其它部门232329,345,78231,512,9162,167,135二二.资本和金融项资本和金融项目目242410,036,76510,036,765653,276,

12、252653,276,252643,239,487643,239,487 A.A.资本项目资本项目25254,020,1154,020,1154,102,4774,102,47782,36282,362 B.B.金融项目金融项目26266,016,6506,016,650649,173,775649,173,775643,157,125643,157,125 1.1.直接投资直接投资272760,265,01160,265,01187,285,17987,285,17927,020,16827,020,168 1.1 我国在外直接投资2828-17,829,655717,77118,547,4

13、26 1.2 外国在华直接投资292978,094,66686,567,4088,472,742 2.2.证券投资证券投资3030-67,557,571-67,557,57145,601,57945,601,579113,159,150113,159,150 2.1 资产3131-110,418,7712,740,379113,159,150 2.1.1 股本证券3232-1,454,000224,0001,678,000 2.1.2 债务证券3333-108,964,7712,516,379111,481,150 2.1.2.1(中)长期债券3434-106,736,7712,516,379

14、109,253,150 2.1.2.2 货币市场工具3535-2,228,00002,228,000 2.2 负债363642,861,20042,861,2000 2.2.1 股本证券373742,861,20042,861,2000 2.2.2 债务证券3838000 2.2.2.1(中)长期债券3939000 2.2.2.2 货币市场工具4040000三三.储备储备资产资产5252-247,025,415-247,025,415446,585446,585247,472,000247,472,000 3.1 货币黄金5353000 3.2 特别提款权5454135,744135,7440

15、 3.3 在基金组织的储备头寸5555310,841310,8410 3.4 外汇5656-247,472,0000247,472,000 3.5 其它债权5757000四四.净净 误误 差差 与与 遗遗 漏漏5858-12,877,344-12,877,3440 012,877,34412,877,344名义汇率 名义汇率 1美元=7RMB 贬值 升值 法定贬值 法定升值真实汇率 例子 中国汉堡10RMB 美国汉堡2$美国的汉堡价格用rmb表示2$7RMB/$=14RMB 14RMB/10RMB=1.4 什么意思？美国的价格额是中国的1.4倍 真实汇率=名义汇率外国价格本国价格 真实汇率=名

16、义汇率外国价格本国价格购买力平价 一价定律 一个相同的商品必须卖相同的价格 刚才的例子里，你可以做什么来牟利？真实汇率=1=EP*P1P*1美元在美国的购买力EP1美元可以兑换成E元RMB，E元RMB的购买力等于E/P这二者应该相等，为什么？5050757510010012512515015019701970197519751980198019851985199019901995199520002000I ndex January 1982=100I ndex January 1982=100Exchange rateExchange rateC onsum er pri ces i n D

17、enm ark rel ati ve to C onsum er pri ces i n D enm ark rel ati ve to consum er pri ces i n G erm anyconsum er pri ces i n G erm any货币，价格，和汇率：德国超级通胀期间 10,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000100,0001.00001.00000000011921192219231924Exchange rateMoney supplyPrice level1925指数指数(Jan.1921 5 100)图图3 3：中国外汇储备（2

18、004.12007.9），单位：亿美元数据来源数据来源：国家外汇管理局网页关于汇率的短期理论 可贷资金市场均衡数量均衡利率可贷资金供给，来自国内储蓄可贷资金需求，用于国内投资和净出口 外汇市场真实汇率用于兑换美元的人民币数量人民币需求，用于净出口人民币供给，来自资本净流出 美国作为债务帝国 2004年5000亿美元 美国增长很快4%你怎么看美国的前途？资本外逃 短短10年前，资本外逃是中国关注的问题。现在没人关心了 资本会逃离美国吗？汇率制度 定义：以一种通货表示的另外一种通货的价格 表示方法：7.3RMB/$固定汇率 中央银行的干预 浮动汇率 清洁浮动与肮脏浮动 1995年，一个愚蠢的众议员

19、说，要让美国历史上第一次拖欠债务。后果是美国政府债券利率上升了0.1个百分点，汇率下降。美国还敢试吗？KRUGMAN说，外国信任美国，是基于美国的领袖不会干蠢事。如果美国不负责任的财政赤字持续的话，投资者最终会得出结论，美国中最要变成第三世界国家，并开始像那些国家一样威胁投资者。这对美国的经济后果并不妙。图图4：人民币对美元月度汇率（2005.12007.12）数据来源：数据来源：国家外汇管理局网页商品贸易与贸易均衡 本国居民的支出=A=C+I+G 对国内商品的支出=A+NX=C+I+G+NX=A+NX 回忆A=A(Y,i)净出口 NX=X(Yf,R)-Q(Y,R)=NX(Y,Yf,R)边际进

20、口倾向 IS曲线：Y=A(Y,i)+NX(Y,Yf,R)例子，美国收入降低 国内支出增加对收入和净出口的影响？国外收入增加对收入和净出口的影响 实际贬值呢？资本的流动性 资本逐利 我们先分析资本完全流动的情况 国际收支与资本流动 BP=NX(Y,Yf,R)+CF(i-if)内部平衡与外部平衡蒙代尔弗莱明模型 在固定汇率下，和资本完全流动，一国无法采取独立的货币政策 利率无法背离世界市场上通行的利率水平。实施独立的货币政策会导致资本流动，并且需要干预，直至利率回到与世界市场的利率水平一致为止 紧缩货币 提高利率 资本流入，国际收支盈余 货币升值的压力 通过卖出本国货币，买进外币来干预 干预扩张了

21、货币，降低了利率 回到原先的利率和货币存量和国际收支水平 固定汇率使得货币存量外生化资本的完全流动与可变汇率 在完全可变汇率下，没有干预意味着国际收支余额为0.任何经常项目赤字，必须由私人资本流入来加以解决，经常项目盈余由资本流出来平衡。汇率的调整保证经常项目与资本项目之和为0 i=if 贬值，IS曲线右移，？货币存量的调整 非常有效 贬值政策输出失业 竞争性贬值The Mundell-Fleming model Key assumption:Small open economy with perfect capital mobility.r =r*Goods market equilibri

22、um the IS*curve:()()()*YC YTI rGNX ewhere e=nominal exchange rate=foreign currency per unit domestic currencyThe IS*curve:Goods market eqmThe IS*curve is drawn for a given value of r*.Intuition for the slope:Y eIS*()()()*YC YTI rGNX eeNXY The LM*curve:Money market eqmThe LM*curve is drawn for a give

23、n value of r*.is vertical because:given r*,there is only one value of Y that equates money demand with supply,regardless of e.Y eLM*(,)*M PL rYEquilibrium in the Mundell-Fleming modelY eLM*(,)*M PL rYIS*()()()*YC YTI rGNX eequilibriumexchangerateequilibriumlevel ofincomeFloating&fixed exchange rates

24、 In a system of floating exchange rates,e is allowed to fluctuate in response to changing economic conditions.In contrast,under fixed exchange rates,the central bank trades domestic for foreign currency at a predetermined price.Next,policy analysis first,in a floating exchange rate system then,in a

25、fixed exchange rate systemFiscal policy under floating exchange ratesY e(,)*M PL rY()()()*YC YTI rGNX eY1 e1 1*LM1*IS2*ISe2 At any given value of e,a fiscal expansion increases Y,shifting IS*to the right.Results:e 0,Y=0Lessons about fiscal policy In a small open economy with perfect capital mobility

26、,fiscal policy cannot affect real GDP.“Crowding out”closed economy:Fiscal policy crowds out investment by causing the interest rate to rise.small open economy:Fiscal policy crowds out net exports by causing the exchange rate to appreciate.Monetary policy under floating exchange ratesY ee1 Y1 1*LM1*I

27、SY2 2*LMe2 An increase in M shifts LM*right because Y must rise to restore eqm in the money market.Results:e 0(,)*M PL rY()()()*YC YTI rGNX eLessons about monetary policy Monetary policy affects output by affecting the components of aggregate demand:closed economy:M r I Ysmall open economy:M e NX Y

28、Expansionary mon.policy does not raise world agg.demand,it merely shifts demand from foreign to domestic products.So,the increases in domestic income and employment are at the expense of losses abroad.Trade policy under floating exchange ratesY ee1 Y1 1*LM1*IS2*ISe2 At any given value of e,a tariff

29、or quota reduces imports,increases NX,and shifts IS*to the right.Results:e 0,Y=0(,)*M PL rY()()()*YC YTI rGNX eLessons about trade policy Import restrictions cannot reduce a trade deficit.Even though NX is unchanged,there is less trade:the trade restriction reduces imports.the exchange rate apprecia

30、tion reduces exports.Less trade means fewer“gains from trade.”Lessons about trade policy,cont.Import restrictions on specific products save jobs in the domestic industries that produce those products,but destroy jobs in export-producing sectors.Hence,import restrictions fail to increase total employ

31、ment.Also,import restrictions create“sectoral shifts,”which cause frictional unemployment.Fixed exchange rates Under fixed exchange rates,the central bank stands ready to buy or sell the domestic currency for foreign currency at a predetermined rate.In the Mundell-Fleming model,the central bank shif

32、ts the LM*curve as required to keep e at its preannounced rate.This system fixes the nominal exchange rate.In the long run,when prices are flexible,the real exchange rate can move even if the nominal rate is fixed.Fiscal policy under fixed exchange ratesY eY1 e1 1*LM1*IS2*ISUnder floating rates,a fi

33、scal expansion would raise e.Results:e=0,Y 0Y2 2*LMTo keep e from rising,the central bank must sell domestic currency,which increases M and shifts LM*right.Under floating rates,fiscal policy is ineffective at changing output.Under fixed rates,fiscal policy is very effective at changing output.Moneta

34、ry policy under fixed exchange rates2*LMAn increase in M would shift LM*right and reduce e.Y eY1 1*LM1*ISe1 To prevent the fall in e,the central bank must buy domestic currency,which reduces M and shifts LM*back left.Results:e=0,Y =0Under floating rates,monetary policy is very effective at changing

35、output.Under fixed rates,monetary policy cannot be used to affect output.2*LMTrade policy under fixed exchange ratesY eY1 e1 1*LM1*IS2*ISA restriction on imports puts upward pressure on e.Results:e=0,Y 0Y2 2*LMTo keep e from rising,the central bank must sell domestic currency,which increases M and s

36、hifts LM*right.Under floating rates,import restrictions do not affect Y or NX.Under fixed rates,import restrictions increase Y and NX.But,these gains come at the expense of other countries:the policy merely shifts demand from foreign to domestic goods.Summary of policy effects in the Mundell-Fleming

37、 modeltype of exchange rate regime:floatingfixedimpact on:PolicyYeNXYeNXfiscal expansion000mon.expansion000import restriction000Interest-rate differentialsTwo reasons why r may differ from r*country risk:The risk that the countrys borrowers will default on their loan repayments because of political

38、or economic turmoil.Lenders require a higher interest rate to compensate them for this risk.expected exchange rate changes:If a countrys exchange rate is expected to fall,then its borrowers must pay a higher interest rate to compensate lenders for the expected currency depreciation.Differentials in

39、the M-F modelwhere (Greek letter“theta”)is a risk premium,assumed exogenous.Substitute the expression for r into the IS*and LM*equations:(,)*M PL rY()()()*YC YTI rGNX e*rr The effects of an increase in 2*LMIS*shifts left,because r IY eY1 e11*LM1*ISLM*shifts right,because r (M/P)d,so Y must rise to r

40、estore money market eqm.Results:e 02*ISe2Y2 The fall in e is intuitive:An increase in country risk or an expected depreciation makes holding the countrys currency less attractive.Note:an expected depreciation is a self-fulfilling prophecy.The increase in Y occurs because the boost in NX(from the dep

41、reciation)is greater than the fall in I (from the rise in r).The effects of an increase in Why income might not rise The central bank may try to prevent the depreciation by reducing the money supply.The depreciation might boost the price of imports enough to increase the price level(which would redu

42、ce the real money supply).Consumers might respond to the increased risk by holding more money.Each of the above would shift LM*leftward.CASE STUDY:The Mexican peso crisis1015202530357/10/948/29/9410/18/9412/7/941/26/953/17/955/6/95U.S.Cents per Mexican Peso1015202530357/10/948/29/9410/18/9412/7/941/

43、26/953/17/955/6/95U.S.Cents per Mexican PesoCASE STUDY:The Mexican peso crisisThe Peso crisis didnt just hurt Mexico U.S.goods more expensive to Mexicans U.S.firms lost revenue Hundreds of bankruptcies along U.S.-Mexican border Mexican assets worth less in dollars Reduced wealth of millions of U.S.c

44、itizensUnderstanding the crisis In the early 1990s,Mexico was an attractive place for foreign investment.During 1994,political developments caused an increase in Mexicos risk premium():peasant uprising in Chiapas assassination of leading presidential candidate Another factor:The Federal Reserve rais

45、ed U.S.interest rates several times during 1994 to prevent U.S.inflation.(r*0)Understanding the crisis These events put downward pressure on the peso.Mexicos central bank had repeatedly promised foreign investors that it would not allow the pesos value to fall,so it bought pesos and sold dollars to“

46、prop up”the peso exchange rate.Doing this requires that Mexicos central bank have adequate reserves of dollars.Did it?Dollar reserves of Mexicos central bankDecember 1993$28 billionAugust 17,1994$17 billionDecember 1,1994$9 billionDecember 15,1994$7 billionDuring 1994,Mexicos central bank hid the fa

47、ct that its reserves were being depleted.the disaster Dec.20:Mexico devalues the peso by 13%(fixes e at 25 cents instead of 29 cents)Investors are they had no idea Mexico was running out of reserves.,investors dump their Mexican assets and pull their capital out of Mexico.Dec.22:central banks reserv

48、es nearly gone.It abandons the fixed rate and lets e float.In a week,e falls another 30%.The rescue package 1995:U.S.&IMF set up$50b line of credit to provide loan guarantees to Mexicos govt.This helped restore confidence in Mexico,reduced the risk premium.After a hard recession in 1995,Mexico began

49、 a strong recovery from the crisis.CASE STUDY:The Southeast Asian crisis 1997-98 Problems in the banking system eroded international confidence in SE Asian economies.Risk premiums and interest rates rose.Stock prices fell as foreign investors sold assets and pulled their capital out.Falling stock pr

50、ices reduced the value of collateral used for bank loans,increasing default rates,which exacerbated the crisis.Capital outflows depressed exchange rates.Data on the SE Asian crisisexchange rate%change from 7/97 to 1/98stock market%change from 7/97 to 1/98nominal GDP%change 1997-98Indonesia-59.4%-32.