国际贸易与金融II(双语)课程国际经济学16课件.ppt

1、1International Economics 国际经济学International EconomicsBy Robert J.Carbaugh9th EditionChapter 16:Exchange-Rate SystemsIntroductionnExchange-rate practices after world war IInNature and operation of actual exchange-rate systemsnEconomic factors that influence the choice of alternative exchange-rate sys

2、temsExchange-Rate PracticesnFloating or Fixed?nIMF principles for member nations:nExchange rate should not be manipulated to prevent effective balance-of-payments adjustments or to gain unfair competitive gains nMembers should act to counter short-term exchange market disorders nWhen members interve

3、ne in markets,they should take into account the interests of other members.nExchange-rate practices of IMF members(Table 15.1)nChoosing an exchange-rate system(Table 15.2)Exchange rate systemsBackLegal tender:法定货币Pegged exchange rates within horizontal bands:水平带内盯住汇率制度Exchange rates within crawling

4、bands:带内爬行盯住汇率制度BackA nation may choose different exchange rate system at different time.Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemnGeneral practice until the 1970s(1946-1973)nPrimarily used by small,developing nations nCurrencies are anchored(pegged)to a key currencynKey currency is used to as a means of internati

5、onal settlementnDeveloping nations can stabilize the domestic-currency prices of their imports and exportsnTo Exert restraint on domestic policies and reduce inflationnMajor key currencies of the world(Table 15.3)Exchange rate systemsBackFixed Exchange-Rate SystemnAnchoring(Pegging)to a single curre

6、ncynDeveloping nations with a single industrial-country partnernAnchoring to a group or basket of currenciesnDeveloping nations with more than one major trading partnernHelps to average out fluctuations nAnchoring to the special drawing right(SDR)nBasket of four currencies(Table 15.4)nIncreased stab

7、ilityContinuedExchange rate systemsBackThe Special Drawing Right(SDR)is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement existing foreign exchange reservesIt serves as a unit of account for the IMFThe basket is to include,in proportional amounts,the currencies of the members having th

8、e largest exporter of goods and services during the previous five years.It is the weighted average value of currencies of 4 IMF members:dollar,pound,euro,¥Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemnPar value（平价）and official exchange rate（官方汇率）nGovernments assign their currencies a par value in terms of gold or o

9、ther key currenciesnDetermining official exchange rate by comparing the par values of two currenciesContinuedExchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemnExample 1:n1ounce gold=$35 1ounce gold=12.50nThe official exchange rate between dollar and pound is$2.80=1nExample 2:nBolivian central bank fix

10、 their peso at 20peso=US$1nEcuadors sucre is set at 10 sucres(苏克雷）=US$1nThe official exchange rate between the peso and sucre is 1peso=0.5 sucreContinuedExchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemnExchange-rate stabilization nSet up an exchange-stabilization fund（外汇稳定基金）to defend the official ra

11、tenPurchases and sales of foreign currencies to iron out short-term fluctuations(Figure 15.2)nFundamental disequilibriumnOver the long run,the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate move apart ContinuedExchange rate systemsBackFixed Exchange-Rate SystemnDevaluation（法定贬值）nHome currencys

12、exchange value depreciates,counteracting a payments deficitnRevaluation（法定升值）nHome currencys exchange value appreciates,counteracting a payments surplusnExpenditure-switching instrumentsnWork on relative prices to divert domestic and foreign expenditures between domestic and foreign goodsContinuedEx

13、change rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemnDecisions to be made before implementationnIf an adjustment in the official exchange rate is necessary to correct a payments disequilibriumnWhen the adjustment will occurnHow large the adjustment should beContinuedExchange rate system alternativesDevalua

14、tion and RevaluationnThe terms devaluation and revaluation refer to a legal redefinition of a currencys par value under a system of fixed exchange rate.nThe terms depreciation and appreciation refer to the actual impact on the market exchange rate caused devaluation and revaluation or to changes in

15、an exchange rate stemming from changes in the supply of or demand for foreign exchanges.Devaluation and revaluationDevaluation/revaluation:legal and economic impactnIn the legal sense,a devaluation or revaluation occurs when the home country redefines its currency price of the official numerairenThe

16、 economic effect of the par values redefinition is the impact on the market rate of exchange.Devaluation/revaluation:legal and economic impactDevaluation and revaluationDevaluation/revaluation:legal and economic impactDevaluation and revaluationnA devaluation in the legal sense does not necessarily

17、ensure a devaluation in the economic sense.nIt occurs only if other nations do not retaliate by initiating offsetting devaluations of their own.nCurrency devaluations do have foreign repercussions similar to those of domestic policies.Devaluation/revaluation:legal and economic impactDevaluation and

18、revaluationBretton woods systemBretton Woods System of Fixed Exchange RatesnAdjustable pegged rates(1946-1973)nThe value of the dollar was pegged to gold and the dollar was convertible to gold at the mint parity rate.(1ounce=35$)nOther nations peg the value of their currencies to the dollar and free

19、ly convert their currencies for the dollar at the pegged value.Double Hook SystemBretton woods systemBretton Woods System of Fixed Exchange RatesnAdjustable pegged rates(1946-1973)nMarket exchange rates are kept within a band of 1 percent on either side of parity.In 1971,the margin were widen to 2.2

20、5.nWhen fundamental disequilibrium occurs,member nations can repeg its exchange rate.n up to 10 percent without permission from IMF and by greater then 10 percent with the IMFs permission Adjustable pegged ratesBretton woods systemBretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesnShortcomingsnAdjustments

21、in prices and incomes often conflicted with domestic-stabilization objectives.nDevaluation seemed to indicate a failure of domestic policies and a loss of international prestige.nIt is difficulty to estimating the new equilibrium rate.nOnce the market exchange rate reached the margin of the permissi

22、ble band around parity,it in effect became a rigid rate.Bretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesnThe defects in the Bretton Woods systemnThe Triffin dilemma/特里芬两难nThe inherent conflict of the U.S.Dollar being both a national currency and an international currency.nDilemma of liquidity(清偿力)and con

23、fidenceBretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesnThe defects in the Bretton Woods systemn1960年，美国耶鲁大学教授特里芬在其著作黄金与美元危机中指出：布雷顿森林制度以一国货币作为主要国际储备货币，在黄金生产停滞的情况下，国际储备的供应完全取决于美国的国际收支状况：美国的国际收支保持顺差，国际储备资产不敷国际贸易发展的需要；美国的国际收支保持逆差，国际储备资产过剩，美元发生危机，危及国际货币制度。这种难以解决的内在矛盾，国际经济学界称之为“特里芬难题”，它决定了布雷顿森林体系的不稳定性。liquidi

24、tyconfidenceDollar shortage 1944-1958;dollar glut 1959-1971Bretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesDollar value per ounce of gold1944 1971 1973 353842.22Bretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarizationnA currency board is a monet

25、ary authority that issues notes and coins convertible into a foreign anchor currency at a fixed exchange ratenThe rate is usually set in law,and the board must have foreign exchange reserves large enough to cover the domestic currency in circulationnPut another way,the domestic money supply is limit

26、ed by the amount of foreign reserves on handnA currency board exists when a countrys central bank commits to back its monetary base its money supply entirely with foreign reserves at all times.nThis means that a unit of domestic currency cannot be introduced into the economy without an additional un

27、it of foreign exchange reserves being obtained first.nCurrency boards do not make loans or finance government deficitsStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarizationStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarizationnThe major benefits of the currency-

28、board system are:nMaking a nations currency and exchange-rate regimes more rule-bound and predictablenPlacing an upper bound on the nations base money supplynArresting any tendencies in an economy toward inflationnForcing the government to restrict its borrowing to what foreign and domestic lenders

29、are willing to lend it at market interest ratesnEngendering confidence in the soundness of the nations moneynCreating confidence and promoting trade investment,and economic growthStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)nConcerns about currency boards:nIt preve

30、nts a country from pursuing a discretionary monetary policy and reduces its economic independence.nIt lacks a lender of last resort.nIt creates a colonial relationship with the anchor currency.19831983年年1010月月1515日，港英政府对港币发行和汇率日，港英政府对港币发行和汇率制度作出的安排：要求发钞银行（汇丰银行和制度作出的安排：要求发钞银行（汇丰银行和渣达银行，渣达银行，19931993年

31、中国银行香港分行也成为发年中国银行香港分行也成为发钞银行）在增发港元纸币时，必须按钞银行）在增发港元纸币时，必须按1 1美元兑美元兑7.87.8港元的比价向外汇基金缴纳等值美元，以港元的比价向外汇基金缴纳等值美元，以换取港元的负债证明书，作为发钞的法定准备换取港元的负债证明书，作为发钞的法定准备金，这一安排标志着香港联系汇率制的诞生。金，这一安排标志着香港联系汇率制的诞生。因此，香港的联系汇率制实质上是美元汇兑本因此，香港的联系汇率制实质上是美元汇兑本位制。位制。Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollar

32、ization(contd)当港元现钞从流通中回笼后，发钞行可以用同当港元现钞从流通中回笼后，发钞行可以用同样的比价向外汇基金换回美元，同时赎回负债样的比价向外汇基金换回美元，同时赎回负债证明书；发钞行以同样的方式为其他银行提供证明书；发钞行以同样的方式为其他银行提供和收回港元现钞；和收回港元现钞；1 1美元兑换美元兑换7.87.8港元的固定比港元的固定比价只适用于发钞行和外汇基金之间，发钞行和价只适用于发钞行和外汇基金之间，发钞行和其他银行之间以及银行同业、银行与客户之间其他银行之间以及银行同业、银行与客户之间的港元交易全部按市场汇率进行。的港元交易全部按市场汇率进行。Stabilizing

33、 developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)香港的联系汇率制香港的联系汇率制以美元为锚货币；官方汇率以美元为锚货币；官方汇率 1 1美元：美元：7.87.8港元港元商业银行发行港元，商业银行发行港元，100%100%美元发行准备美元发行准备发行汇率与市场汇率并存发行汇率与市场汇率并存 一般一般银行银行发行银行发行银行（汇丰、渣打、中银（汇丰、渣打、中银）外汇基金外汇基金管理局管理局负债证明书负债证明书1:7.8000上缴上缴US$1:7.8000US$HK$Currency boards vs.dol

34、larization(contd)Stabilizing developing country currencies当港元被抛售或资本流出导致美元减少时，当港元被抛售或资本流出导致美元减少时，由于美元减少，发钞银行不仅不能增发港币，由于美元减少，发钞银行不仅不能增发港币，还须向外汇基金交回负债证明书赎回美元，导还须向外汇基金交回负债证明书赎回美元，导致基础货币减少。由于货币的乘数效应，货币致基础货币减少。由于货币的乘数效应，货币供应量将成倍数减少，而这又将导致利率上升，供应量将成倍数减少，而这又将导致利率上升，物价趋于下降，最终使港元趋于稳定。物价趋于下降，最终使港元趋于稳定。Stabiliz

35、ing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)香港联系汇率制的两个内在的自我调节机制：1.国际收支的自动调节机制 2.套利机制国际收支国际收支发行准备发行准备货币供应量货币供应量物价、利率物价、利率美元升值美元升值美元贬值美元贬值退美元买港元退美元买港元退港元买美元退港元买美元美元供给增加美元供给增加美元供给减少美元供给减少美元贬值美元贬值美元升值美元升值联系汇率制的最大优点联系汇率制的最大优点有利于香港金融的稳定，而市场汇率围绕联有利于香港金融的稳定，而市场汇率围绕联系汇率窄幅波动的运行也有助于

36、香港国际金系汇率窄幅波动的运行也有助于香港国际金融中心，国际贸易中心和国际航运中心地位融中心，国际贸易中心和国际航运中心地位的巩固和加强，增强市场信心。的巩固和加强，增强市场信心。金管局从体制上提供了维护联系汇率制的金管局从体制上提供了维护联系汇率制的保障保障。Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)联系汇率使香港的经济行为以及利率货币供应联系汇率使香港的经济行为以及利率货币供应量等指标过分依赖和受制于美国，从而严重削量等指标过分依赖和受制于美国，从而严重削弱了运用利率和货币

37、供应量杠杆调节本地区经弱了运用利率和货币供应量杠杆调节本地区经济的能力。同时，联系汇率也使通过汇率调节济的能力。同时，联系汇率也使通过汇率调节国际收支的功能无从发挥。国际收支的功能无从发挥。Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)nDollarization:residents of a country use the

38、 U.S.dollar alongside or instead of their local currencynUnofficial dollarization(partial dollarization):residents hold assets and bank accounts denominated in dollars nOfficial dollarization:U.S.dollar replaces local currency;occurred in U.S.Virgin Islands,the Marshall islands,Ecuador etc.Stabilizi

39、ng developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)nThe reasons why dollarize:nCountries use dollarization to reduce risks for investors and avoid problems with domestic inflation and devaluationsnDecrease in transaction costs nGreater openness results from a system where exchang

40、e controls are unnecessary and BOP crises are minimized.nEffects of Dollarization EcuadornAccepting the monetary policy of the Federal ReservenRisk that business cycles might not coincidenFederal Reserve is not their lender of last resortnLoss of seignioragenFreedom to decide how to spend its tax do

41、llarsnEcuador could establish its own tariffs,subsidies,and trade policiesnConstraint:No recourse to printing local currencyCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)Stabilizing developing country currenciesStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs.dollarization(contd)nImplications of

42、 Dollarization for the U.S.nFor each dollar sent abroad,Americans enjoy a one-time increase in the amount of goods and services they are able to consumenThe USA gets an interest-free loan from other countriesnUse of U.S.currency abroad might hinder the formulation and execution of monetary policy nM

43、ore pressure on the Federal Reserve to conduct policy according to the interests of EcuadorFloating Exchange RatesnCurrency prices established in the foreign-exchange marketnWithout restrictions imposed by government policiesnEquilibrium exchange rate equates the demand for and supply of the home cu

44、rrencyExchange rate system alternativesFloating Exchange RatesnAchieving market equilibriumnExample:Foreign-exchange market in Swiss francs in the United States(Figure 15.3)nMarket equilibrium will be established at a point where the quantities of foreign exchange supplied and demanded are equalCont

45、inuedExchange rate system alternativesBackFloating Exchange RatesnTrade restrictions,jobs,and floating exchange ratesnImport restrictions will gradually shift jobs from other industries to the protected industrynNo significant impact on aggregate employmentnShort-run employment gains in the protecte

46、d industry will be offset by long-run employment losses in other industriesContinuedExchange rate system alternativesArguments For and Against Floating RatesnAdvantagesnSimplicity nContinuous adjustment in the balance of paymentsnAdverse effects of prolonged disequilibriums are minimizednPartially i

47、nsulates the home economy from external forcesnFreedom to pursue policies that promote domestic balancenDisadvantagesnUnregulated market leads to wide fluctuations in currency valuesnProhibitively high cost of hedgingnFlexibility to set independent policies leading to inflationary bias（通货膨胀偏差）nSumma

48、rized in Table 15.5Exchange rate system alternativesBackManaged Floating RatesnInformal guidelines established by IMF(1973)nBased on two concernsnNations intervening in exchange markets nClean float and dirty floatnDisorderly markets with erratic fluctuationsnUnder managed floating,a nation:nCan alt

49、er the degree of intervention nCan intervene to reduce short-term fluctuations:Leaning against the wind（逆势干预）nShould not act aggressively with respect to their currency exchange ratesnCan choose target rates and intervene to support themExchange rate system alternativesManaged Floating Rates in the

50、Short Run and Long RunnUnder a managed floatnMarket intervention is used to stabilize exchange rates in the short runnIn the long run,a managed float allows market forces to determine exchange ratesnExample:Theory of a managed float in a two-country framework(Figure 15.4)Exchange rate system alterna