普氏Platts能源资讯亚洲区编辑总监VandanaHari课件.pptx

1、Global Oil Markets OutlookVandana Hari,Asia Editorial Director 28 May 2019,Shanghai2Enabling the markets to perform with greater Transparency&EfficiencySincePlatts An introductionNew YorkDenverWashingtonHoustonBuenos AiresLondonMoscowDubaiBeijingTokyoShanghaiHong KongSingaporeEvergreenBostonHightsto

2、wnPittsburghSo PauloLausannePlatts An introductionCape TownHoustonARA(Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp)SingaporePlatts An Introduction Key global crude and oil products benchmarks,including Brent and Dubai Intelligence on oil,petrochemicals,metals,gas&power,agricultural marketsEditorial and market assess

3、ments are conductedwith complete Independence&ImpartialityAgenda5Oil prices End to volatility?-What fundamentals and geopolitics tell us US shale boom-The impact on global oil flowsso far and going forward Redefining refining-Sector in a major flux globally Global Oil Markets:Stable On The Surface6S

4、ource:Platts Dated Brent assessmentsDemand Stabilization Anchoring Crude7Source:Platts analysis of quarterly historic and forecast demand from OPECs Monthly Oil Market Report(January 2019)and IEAs Oil Market Report(January 2019)Global Crude Markets Finely Balanced8Source:Platts Dated Brent assessmen

5、tsAnnual Demand Growth=1 million b/dNew Crude Supplies From US,Iraq,Africa US Crude Export PolicyMarginal Cost Of Tight OilOPEC Coordination?Easing Iran SanctionsOil Markets Find Stable Evolutionary CurveThe mood at Platts 7th Global Crude Oil Summit May 13-149China In An Oil Recession10 Economy los

6、ing steam;inventories piling up;major stimulus measures seen unlikely Growth becoming less oil-intensive Oil demand between Oct 2019-Mar 2019 declined 1%Gasoil,naphtha consumption shrinking,more than offsets rise in gasoline demandDownside Risks To Global Demand Growth11Source:IEADemand:IEA projects

7、 1.3 mil b/d growth for 2019 Too optimistic?CHINA:Oil demand growth slowing down faster than GDP INDIA:Annual growth in consumption cools to 1%RUSSIA:Ukraine tensions and sanctions dampen economic outlookOutages Dont Rattle Markets Any More Libyan output slumped to around 200,000 b/d(versus 1.6 mil

8、b/d capacity)Unrest,attacks on infrastructure curb crude production in Nigeria,Iraq,Libya,Sudan12NigeriaNearly 4 mil b/d of production reduced or under constant threatBut OPEC output remains mostly below 30 mil b/d“ceiling”since last Sep;Saudi pulls back from 10 mil b/d peakPlenty Of New Supply,Led

9、by N.AmericaON THE OPEC FRONT:Iran could raise output by 1 mil b/d within 6 months if sanctions lifted;aims for 5 mil b/d output by 2018 Iraq production is on a strong ascent 3.4 mil b/d in Feb,highest since 1979 Will OPEC be able to respond if there is a supply glut?13Non-OPEC supply growing at its

10、 strongest in decadesSource:IEAUS Shale Bonanza The Impact On Global Oil Flows So Far And Going ForwardUS Tight Oil Boom Light,Sweet Surplus 15 9.6 mil b/d 2020:Nearly half the output will be tight oil Most tight oil is light/ultra light sweet crude/condensate Nearly 2 mil b/d of excess light sweet

11、crude foreseen 2019US Produces More Crude Than It Imports16Source:EIA3.55.57.59.511.52005Million B/DProductionImportsAverage Daily US Imports By Supplier17Source:EIACanada,Colombia Boost Exports To US18CanadaColombia Imports from Africa light,sweet grades from Nigeria,Algeria,Angola down 90%from 2 m

12、il b/d in 2019 to 170,000 b/d in Jan-Apr 2019 Imports of Canadian crude jumped 70%from 2019 to average 2.7 mil b/d this year Imports of Colombian crude doubled from 2019 to 300,000 b/d this year US TO ALLOW CRUDE EXPORTS?UNLIKELY！Surplus To Find Its Way Out As Products19New condensate splitters comi

13、ng on stream Nearly 475,000 b/d new capacity over the next 2 years(source:Platts Bentek)New ethane crackers being built Around 12 mil mt/year of new ethylene capacity planned to come on stream by 2020Nearly 50%capacity growth in bothUnprecedented boom in US oil,gas infrastructureUS Oil Product Expor

14、ts Vault Over 3 Mil B/D20GASOILGASOLINELPG,NAPHTHA0123452008200920102011201220132014Mil B/DFinished Petroleum ProductsNGLsBiofuels and blending componentsPLANT CONDENSATERedefining Refining Sector In Major Flux GloballyOil Markets In Three Very Different Worlds22Crude:InsularityProducts:Export expan

15、sionCrude:ContractionProducts:Import expansionCrude and productsMore supply/More demandRefining Sector Tilts To Overcapacity23JapanAustraliaEurope(?)ChinaMiddle EastIndiaUSAfrica,Latin America(?)Japan Contracts,But Major“Sinks”in SE Asia Japan 20%reduction in capacity from 2019 peak of 4.9 mil b/d;m

16、ore cuts likely by 2019 Major product“sinks”in Southeast Asia:-Indonesia About 500-600,000 b/d;could double by 2020-Australia About 375,000 b/d;seen rising to 700,000 b/d by 2019-Vietnam About 180,000 b/d;could vanish around 2020 if refining capacity rises24China Refining Overcapacity Downstream add

17、itions surpass demand growth Some 4 mil b/d excess capacity seen by 2019 Capacity utilization rates on a slippery slope Product exports rising,imports declining“If China does not rein in excess capacity,refinery utilization rates could drop to 67%by 2020,lower than the 72-75%in the steel industry no

18、w”Sinopec Chairman Fu Chengyu(March 14)25Mideast In Unprecedented Refinery Boom 2626Yanbu,400 kb/d,2019(e)Jizan,400 kb/d,after 2019(e)Duqm,230 kb/d,2020(e)Fujairah,200 kb/d,2020(e)Ruwais expansion,+417 kb/d,2019(e)Ras Laffan II,146 kb/d condensate splitter,2019 Jubail,400 kb/d,2019(started)Al Zour,6

19、15 kb/d,by 2021(e)Iraq,various,total 700 kb/d 2019 onwards(e)Sohar expansion,+86 kb/d,2019(e)European Refining Sector On Life-Support Europe oil demand remains on a slippery slope Around 2.5 mil b/d products demand lost between 2019-2019 Refiners opt to reduce rates rather than shut down Average ref

20、inery utilization rates languish around 75%“1 mil b/d immediate capacity is needed to shut down along with a further 1.5-2.0 mil b/d by the end of 2019 to restore healthy utilization”Marcus Lippold,VP,MOL(April 14)27Golden Age For US Gulf Coast Refiners28-8-327121722May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14$/BUS Gulf Coast(LLS)ARA(Brent)Italy(Urals)Singapore(Dubai)Cracking Margins Over The Past YearSource:Platts and Turner,Mason&Co.Thank You!Questions?Vandana.hariplatts