战略咨询入门—市场容量估算-业务课件.ppt

1、 Career Venture|0Before classBefore classOur objective and methodologyOur objective and methodologyObjective:-Understand what Guesstimation is-How to get the answer-How to present the answer-Be a masterOur method:-Conversation-Question lead-We do it together Career Venture|1IntroductionIntroductionW

2、hat is Guesstimation?What is Guesstimation?Guesstimation is more than market sizingGuesstimation is to get a general quantitative idea of a target with common sense Career Venture|2Real work Market sizing to drive business decisions Career Venture|3IntroductionIntroductionHow to get the answer in re

3、al work?How to get the answer in real work?Highest level:check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufacturers-Distributors/Retailers-End CustomersIn real work without dataCold call or in-depth interviewsLit research Career Venture|4IntroductionIntroductionWhat is the role of Guesstimation in ca

4、se interview?What is the role of Guesstimation in case interview?Back of the envelope questionNo data,no internet,no questions Will be given as:A single case or part of a caseBrain teaser questions Career Venture|5IntroductionIntroductionWhy do Guesstimation in the case interview?Why do Guesstimatio

5、n in the case interview?To test:Common senseBusiness senseAnalytical capability CalculationCommunication to describe and summarize Comfort in real work Career Venture|6How to get the answerHow to get the answerThe methodology The methodology Have a try How many passengers is Pudong airport handling

6、each day?Career Venture|7How to get the answerHow to get the answerThe methodology The methodology Clarify the question Landing/departing Domestic/international Laying out the structure#of passengers=#of planes landing per day x#of passengers per planeDeep dive on each element#of planes landing per

7、day=#of runways x#of planes landing on each runway per day#of planes landing on each runway per day=#of hours airport operates for landing per day/time taken for a plane to landProbe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense zero defect calculation Sanity check Review assumptions

8、 for sensitivity check How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?Career Venture|8How to get the answerHow to get the answerTips Tips 1.Ask for 30 seconds to 1 minute upfront to gather your thoughts2.Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers3.When making assumptions,use calcula

9、tion-friendly numbers/percentages(e.g.age groups 0-20 etc.)4.Clearly label units5.Avoid numerical ranges as they complicate the solution6.Use a“sniff test”or“sanity-check”the validity of each calculation7.Its ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer8.Interpret interviewer body lang

10、uage9.Communicate each step clearly and concisely,and your thinking process10.Dont overcomplicate the solution simple is super11.Try to offer multiple appraoches Career Venture|9How to get the answerHow to get the answerCase in groupCase in groupOn average,how much does each cigarette smoked by a he

11、avy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy?Career Venture|10How to get the answerHow to get the answerCase in groupCase in groupHow many liters of house paint are sold in the UK annually?Career Venture|11How to get the answerHow to get the answerCase in groupCase in groupHow many gas stations are

12、 there in Shanghai?Career Venture|12How to get the answerHow to get the answerIs there any pattern in such questions?Is there any pattern in such questions?Top down/bottom upCommon segmentation dimensions Age,gender,income,season,penetration,utilizationYou can always further breakdown by thinking ab

13、out Process,value chain,highly correlated variables Career Venture|13How to present the answerHow to present the answerFace to face caseFace to face caseEstimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?Career Venture|14How to present the answerHow to present the answerFace to face caseFace to

14、face caseHow many rounds of golf are played annually in the U.S.?Career Venture|15How to present the answerHow to present the answerFace to face caseFace to face caseHow many bottles of cokes are sold in China annually?Career Venture|16How to present the answerHow to present the answerFace to face c

15、aseFace to face caseAges#of people(million)penetration ratebottles per month#of monthsbottles per year(m)0-5750%01206-107540%21272011-2015050%312270021-4030050%312540041-6030030%112108061-8030010%0.512180Total12001.89.5-10080 Career Venture|17How to present the answerHow to present the answerFace to face caseFace to face caseHow many taxis are there in Shanghai?Career Venture|18Thank you!谢谢！