02决策支持系统模型与支持解析课件.ppt

1、 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-1Chapter 2Decision-Making Systems,Models,and SupportTurban,Aronson,and Liang Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,Seventh Edition 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Int

2、elligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-2Learning Objectives Learn the basic concepts of decision making.Understand systems approach.Learn Simons four phases of decision making.Understand the concepts of rationality and bounded rationality.Differentiate betwixt making a choice and est

3、ablishing a principle of choice.Learn which factors affect decision making.Learn how DSS supports decision making in practice.2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-3Standard Motor Products Shifts Gears Into Team-Based Decision-Makin

4、g Vignette Team-based decision making Increased information sharing Daily feedback Self-empowerment Shifting responsibility towards teams Elimination of middle management 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-4Decision Making Proces

5、s of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals.The four phases of the decision process are:Intelligence Design Choice implementation 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-5Systems St

6、ructure Inputs Processes Outputs Feedback from output to decision maker Separated from environment by boundary Surrounded by environmentInputProcessesOutputboundaryEnvironment 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-6 2005 Prentice Ha

7、ll,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-7System Types Closed system Independent Takes no inputs Delivers no outputs to the environment Black Box Open system Accepts inputs Delivers outputs to environment 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems an

8、d Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-8Models Used for DSS Iconic Small physical replication of system Analog Behavioral representation of system May not look like system Quantitative(mathematical)Demonstrates relationships between systems 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Sy

9、stems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-9 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-10 Phases of Decision-Making Simons original three phases:Intelligence Design Choice He added fourth phase later:Implementat

10、ion Book adds fifth stage:Monitoring 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-11Decision-Making Intelligence Phase Scan the environment Analyze organizational goals Collect data Identify problem Categorize problem Programmed and non-pr

11、ogrammed Decomposed into smaller parts Assess ownership and responsibility for problem resolution 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-12Decision-Making Design Phase Develop alternative courses of action Analyze potential solutions

12、 Create model Test for feasibility Validate results Select a principle of choice Establish objectives Incorporate into models Risk assessment and acceptance Criteria and constraints 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-13Decision-M

13、aking Choice Phase Principle of choice Describes acceptability of a solution approach Normative Models Optimization Effect of each alternative Rationalization More of good things,less of bad things Courses of action are known quantity Options ranked from best to worse Suboptimization Decisions made

14、in separate parts of organization without consideration of whole 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-14Descriptive Models Describe how things are believed to be Typically,mathematically based Applies single set of alternatives Exa

15、mples:Simulations What-if scenarios Cognitive map Narratives 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-15Developing Alternatives Generation of alternatives May be automatic or manual May be legion,leading to information overload Scenari

16、os Evaluate with heuristics Outcome measured by goal attainment 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-16Problems Satisficing is the willingness to settle for less than ideal.Form of suboptimization Bounded rationality Limited human

17、capacity Limited by individual differences and biases Too many choices 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-17Decision-Making Choice Phase Decision making with commitment to act Determine courses of action Analytical techniques Alg

18、orithms Heuristics Blind searches Analyze for robustness 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-18Decision-Making Implementation Phase Putting solution to work Vague boundaries which include:Dealing with resistance to change User tra

19、ining Upper management support 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-19Source:Based on Sprague,R.H.,Jr.,“A Framework for the Development of DSS.”MIS Quarterly,Dec.1980,Fig.5,p.13.2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intel

20、ligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-20Decision Support Systems Intelligence Phase Automatic Data Mining Expert systems,CRM,neural networks Manual OLAP KMS Reporting Routine and ad hoc 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and

21、Liang2-21Decision Support Systems Design Phase Financial and forecasting models Generation of alternatives by expert system Relationship identification through OLAP and data mining Recognition through KMS Business process models from CRM,RMS,ERP,and SCM 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems an

22、d Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-22Decision Support Systems Choice Phase Identification of best alternative Identification of good enough alternative What-if analysis Goal-seeking analysis May use KMS,GSS,CRM,ERP,and SCM systems 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems

23、and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-23Decision Support Systems Implementation Phase Improved communications Collaboration Training Supported by KMS,expert systems,GSS 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-2

24、4Decision-Making In Humans Temperament Hippocrates personality types Myers-Briggs Type Indicator Kiersey and Bates Types and Motivations Birkmans True Colours Gender 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-25Decision-Making In Humans Cognitive styles What is perceived?How is it organized?Subjective Decision styles How do people think?How do they react?Heuristic,analytical,autocratic,democratic,consultative 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-26