自然地理学04-转PDF课件-40.pptx

1、(1)几个事实，几个疑问(2)历史上的气候变化(3)气候变化中的人类影响(4)气候变化的生态学效应(5)有关气候变化的争议NIPCCMPCLS.Fred SingerNIPCC vs.IPCCw NIPCCH8CK ACS THET?IPCCWHO THEAddressing the Di$farity between Climate Models and Observations:Testing the Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Globa!WarmingWerWn Soerce UpdatePresented M Majorana Qy/erencc in 8

2、y August 2011IPCC|NTE加*BdNAL FNEL ON CUAAATB CHANfi=S3)QUAUR INDEPSD旳 Sa&WSTSt PUBLISH IM4 PGfNHIPCC“NJT THE I pa35 reop伐，R*W BYTKE ftjssii.n/a_ ihjousnty n.SAY WHArEVe.TWe-Y THlNfc MU C，VS&D0U8TM IMACPONCDg任 CHArN4 IS CAUS&D BY US AN)DWILL 3&AD钮心佶WAN平IS A 醇 Mtn+.J OOH Zzot/A 部JUIN./Green TeamRed Te

3、amI CCMIUSUTIOR IQ IMWTM ASMSMMNT MWT 09 TWWfUMYURMUtTM FANU ON CUMAJt OUPhysical ScienceADDENDUM:Global Climate Change Impacts in the United StatesGlobal Climate Change Impacts in the United States整餐77液*.F A-ipccFAJIU on climaie changeCenter for the Study of Public Science and Public Policy Cato In

4、stituteCraig D.Idso Robert M.Carter S.Fred SingerangeThe Report of the NongovernmentalInternational Panel on Climate ChangeaMTfH TMf STUOT Of CAR8OM 010X10(AMOClOaM OUMGSCKNCC AMD FNVIRONMtMTM FOUCYHiajECT气候变化再审视非政府国际气候变化研究组报告Climate Change ReconsideredThe Report of the Nongovernmental International

5、 Panel on Climate Change美C.D.伊狄梭澳R.M.用美S.F.辛格 主编 张志强曲建升段晓男等译CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL CHANGESCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY PROJECTSCtNCf A2 wxmcwui roucv*JECTADDENDUM:Global Climate Change Impacts in the United StatesR F O R T O FT K t NONGOVERNMKNTAL INTKBNATIONAL PANEL O

6、X CLIMATE CHANGEGlobal Climate Change Impacts in the United StatesNature-Not Human Activity-Rules the ClimateCraig D.Idso Robert M.Carter S.Fred SingerForeword by Marita Noonre.3fx Klimaeqd 岫Summary for PolicymakerIfbesliitningstak0ipccclimaie chanec可。响|晦嘅 ClimatejhangeIINIPCCNOHGOVIRNMENIM INTERMAJ

7、KNM PANEL OHarnAH CMAMGfCMateOmeRec爾岫时5ENCECENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CARBON DIOXIDE KUMAREAUSTENE SQENCE AND ENVIRONMENTALANO GLOBAL CHANGE POLICY PROJECTNIPCC气候变化再审视气候变化再审视 非政府国际气候变化研究组报告Climate Change ReconsideredThe Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change美C.D.伊狄梭澳R.M,卡特美

8、S.F.辛格 主编张志强曲建升段晓男等译a 现代气候变暖在多大程度上是由人类活动引起的 现代变暖是自然原因造成的 气候模式不可信 未来海平面上升不可能加速 人类活动产生的温室气体使海洋变暖了吗 我们对大气中C02 了解多少 人类排放CO2的影响是温和的 中等程度变暖对经济影响可能是正面的CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CARBON DIOXIDEAND GLOBAL CHANGE暨琳璋！k嵐洋SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY PROJECT气候门事件irjcrirrnnE.the Decline1400Proxy(tree rings)Qte如t

9、emperature dataCnmateGate3Phil Jones quotesrnscrupulous maiBnrve just complete the last 20 yeaM一 Actively preventing genuine,scientific debate I cant see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report.Kevin and I will keep them out somehow-even if we have to redefine what the peer-review liter

10、ature is!(04)气候门事件中的那封电子邮件CheersPhilProf.Phil JonesClimatic Research Unit Telephone+44(0)xxxxx School of Environmental Sciences Fax+44(0)xxxx University of East AngliaNorwich Email p.jonesxxxx.xxxNR4 7TJUKFrom:Phil JonesTo:ray bradley,mannxxxxx.xxx,mhughesxxxx.xxxSubject:Diagram for WMO StatementDat

11、e:Tue,16 Nov 1999 13:31:15+0000Cc:k.briffaxxx.xx.xx,t.osbornxxxx.xxxDear Ray,Mike and Malcolm,Once Tims got a diagram here well send that either later today or first thing tomorrow._Ive just completed(likes Nature triclof adding in the real temps to each series forjhe last 20 years(ie from 1981 onwa

12、rds)amd from 1961 for Keith!shide the deciJn Mikes series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N.The latter two are real for 1999,while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is+0.44C wrt 61-90.The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct i

13、s+0.35C cf.0.57 for 1998.Thanks for the comments,Ray.12月4日，25位美国科学家发表公 开信，称这些邮件的内容无法动摇 全球变暖的现有结论。“喜马拉雅门”或“冰川门”“亚马逊门”300002500020000150001000050000Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon,1988-200835000Jcpd pgssaloaip Ex bs曲棍球棒模型0.020204061400150016001700180。19002000Nature.1 July 2010.AN EROSION OF TRUS

14、T?A music video parodied the hockey-stick temperature graph.不同的CO 2曲线490-r4704504304103903703503303102902702901915 1 920 1925 1 930 1935 1 940 1945 1950 1 955 1960 1 965YearCO2 1920-1961,Northern hemisphere,chemicalTemperature IPCCCarbon Dioxide Concentration400u 380o 360SL栓S.3403201960 1970 1980 19

15、90 2000 2010Yearredlt:NOAA/Scripps Institution of Oceanography(E Ed dd d)O OJ J。Figure 13:The northern hemisphere 1942 CO,maximum,delineated by historical chemical analysis.Inclusive ice core data by Neftel et al,33 and IPCC temperature for orientation.Climate Change and the Integrity of ScienceWE A

16、RE DEEPLY DISTURBED BY THE RECENT ESCALATION OF POLITICAL ASSAULTS ON SCIENTISTS in general and on climate scientists in particular.All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts.There is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions;science never absolutely proves anyth

17、ing.When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action,it is the same as saying society should never take action.For a problem as potentially catastrophic as climate change,taking no action poses a dangerous risk for our planet.Scientific conc

18、lusions derive from an understanding of basic laws supported by laboratory experiments,observations of nature,and mathematical and computer modeling.Like all human beings,scientists make mistakes,but the scientific process is designed to find and correct them.This process is inherently adversarial一s

19、cientists build reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom,but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better explanation.Thafs what Galileo,Pasteur,Darwin,and Einstein did.But when some conclusions have been thoroug

20、hly and deeply tested,questioned,and examined,they gain the status of well-established the-ories,and are often spoken of as facts.For i n s t a n c e,t h e r e i s compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5 billion years old(the theory of the origin of Earth),that our universe was b

21、om from a single event about 14 billion years ago(the Big Bang theory),and that todays organisms evolved from ones living in the past(the theory of evolution).Even as these are overwhelmingly科学杂志照片造假195019601970200020101980 1990ifear6 6 4 4.2 2O O.2 2O O.O O.O O.Q Q-O O.(l)066TI96I 柘而A-QEOUq1W7 1M8

22、1m 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20M 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.2 0.418801900192019401960198020002020201880190019201940I96019802000aGlobal LandOcean Temperature Index8o6 4 2 0 o o o(E寿 ulouvOJm 當官31Global Mean Surface Temperature(January-June)(0 00 0)A A-c cu ul lu uo ou uv v a ai in n 布 d dl lu u(D DJ J_ _0 00 02 20 00 0aeY00oI I8 88 8I I9 96 60 0o9 94 40 00 0I I 9 9oI I9 92 2I I9 98 80 0将气候变化回归为科学问题