区域经济增长的影响因素课件.ppt

1、6 Regional Economic Growth and development theory6.1区域经济增长的影响因素6.2 Demand based theory The factor of Regional Economic Growth区域经济增长的主要影响因素分解内因外因需求供给区内需求区外需求区内供给区外供给区域产业结构、区域布局结构、区域生产要素流动（资本、技术、人力资本等）消费、储蓄与投资生产要素投入、相关生产技术、生产组织管理、经济规模性等因素分析：供给拉动机制需求拉动机制6.2Demand based throry(需求拉动的区域经济增长理论）Export-base

2、theory(North）进口替代理论投入产出理论自产自销理论等 Export-base theory(需求拉动的区域经济增长理论）1.Export-base theory(North)2.Tiebouts response 3.economic base theory：乘数理论4.Compared to Jane Jacobs“supply region”1.Context:战后关心工业化和增长战后关心工业化和增长经济增长经济增长阶段论阶段论 1.1 Hoover and Fisher,1949,“Research in Regional Economic Growth,”l The sel

3、f sufficient subsistence economy With improvement in transport:trade and local specialization Agricultural crops from extensive grazing to intensive cultivation Industrialition Specialization in tertiary industries producing for export 运输成本的作用（Walter Isard,1951)Historically we find that reduced tran

4、sport rates have tended:(1)to transform a scattered,ubiquitous pattern of production into an increasingly concentrated one.(2)to effect progressive differentiation and selection between sites with superior and inferior resources and trade routes.1.2 Rostow,W W.The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-com

5、munist Manifesto,1960.Traditional society stage 为起飞创造前提条件阶段:家庭手工业/商业，savings/capital,entrepreneurs/investment3.起飞阶段(take off)conditions:1)生产性投资提高生产性投资提高 2）有工业部门担）有工业部门担任的主导产业高速发展任的主导产业高速发展3）有利于现代产业扩张的政治，社会）有利于现代产业扩张的政治，社会和制度结构和制度结构 4.成熟阶段5.高额消费阶段6.追求生活质量阶段Douglas North(1955):“Location theory and reg

6、ional economic growth”1)批判区位理论和区域增长理论:关于区位的模型和关于增长的描述都有问题a.建立区域发展的阶段论(stage theory)，但他们的阶段序列和经济史却是断裂的 -建立在欧洲封建/自给自足型经济的假设，但是，在美国从未如此：从一开始，区域的从一开始，区域的经济活动（采集资源，生产，贸易）就是直经济活动（采集资源，生产，贸易）就是直接联系世界市场的。接联系世界市场的。b.并没有解释区域增长的动力。-工业化的假设误导了对区域发展的分析 2)区域发展必须放在资本主义制度框架（假定条件：profit maximizing opportunities，mobil

7、e production factor ）以美国大西北出口历史为例:-麦/面粉 加州的gold rush(1840)（the first found market)1868开始到英国/1857到日本/亚洲/澳洲 19世纪：一半以上出口-伐木业（Douglas fir）联系加州的gold rush 1860-1920,flour and lumber accounted for 40-60%of the value of the regions manufacturing不是线性地从不是线性地从subsistence-集中集中 3)定义export base:collectively expor

8、table commodities of a region.Regional development was dependent on its success in producing exportable commodities.In the US,many regions started from 1 or 2 exportable commodities -No evolution from subsistence economyExport-base often widened after transport costs had been reducedDevelopment of a

9、n exportable commodityComparative advantage -reducing transfer cost(infrastructure development)-external economies(specialied marketing.improved credit.a trained laboe force)-technological development -capital reinforce existing export baseThe role of export base in shaping the regional economyDeter

10、mining the level of per capita income of a region -direct -indirect (in relation to residentiary industrydiversity and income fluctuation4)增长的机制增长一定要工业化？The case of Oregon：农业带动的出口也能带动增长1950,24%labor force in manufacturingcompared to the national figure of 25.9%)农业带动的出口也能带动增长5)So,a region is defined

11、by its development around a common export base.This makes it economically unified and ties the regions fortunes together.6)What will influence the decline of a region?-changing demands of the outside world -exhaustion of natural resource -increasing costs of land and labor-Transportation(interregion

12、al competition)-Technology-Government出路：To broaden export base,to diversify economic base.2.Tiebouts response:1956 1)export base 对小区域比对大区域有用 Norths analysis is an oversimplification for a large region-How to define a region?Not by export base.-Size matters.The larger a region is,the more the interna

13、l dynamic forces causing income changes.E.g.export only accounts for a very small portion of US economy 2)short-term v.s.long-runother sources of regional growth:(of income and employment)-business investment-government spending-residential construction-non-economic migration3)factor endowment:E.g.N

14、ew Jerseys coal有煤不见得就有出口，还要看成本4)stage theory counts E.g.America as a colony5)export base is better to be applied to satellite cities in the suburban fringe6)a region must divide its energies between residentiary and export activities l North:Reply 1)long run 2)a regions significance lies in its bein

15、g a specialized part of the wholeso,export base is useful to define a region *长江三角洲，珠江三角洲是区域吗？有export base 可用来定义吗？3)residentiary 的发展仍需外力，即出口。（是吗？）l Tiebout:再回应再回应1)强调other endogenous variables2)强调某种程度的closed economy no causal mechanism between regional development and exporting capacity.Not all expo

16、rt economy produces diversity North is misleading 3.economic base theory 经济基础理论经济基础理论-basic sector:export;engine of the local economy.E.g.Boeing-non-basic(local)sector:e.g.grocery,dry-cleaning,local government etc.-base multiplier基础乘数:Total/Basic(employment)e.g.B 20,000 NB 40,000 T 60,000Base ratio(

17、B/NB)=1:2Base multiplier(T/B)=3 参考http:/garnet.acns.fsu.edu/tchapin/urp5261/topics/econbase.htm-policy implication改良出口所需的条件，包括运输，生产技术并降低劳动成本（压低工资）这个快乐的故事是这样的：政府投资增长过程产业多元化收入增加地方储蓄增加投资增加劳力移入形成新的出口产业-critique1)理论上不完整;任何外来投资，即使是指向内需市场，仍可以带动区域的乘数效果。2)到底如何区分基础产业和非基础产业？服务业就是非基础产业吗？3)对增加的就业只看就业量，但每一种就业的质不一

18、样，有些工作附加价值高，有些低。4)区域外的需求如何形成？（动力？）5)对供给持无限弹性的看法，可以完全对需求做出反应。-是这样吗？实际上故事不一定如此美好，增加的收入不一定在本地消费，有时会漏到外地去。（新竹科学园区的到台北消费）而关联性也不保证在本地发生，要视新投资的特性而定（台塑六轻，雇用外地工人）。4.Compared to Jane Jacobs“Supply Region”A regions fate is decided by a distant city market乌拉圭(Uruguay)的例子1911-1950 meat,wool,leather for European

19、marketwelfare state:Switzerland of South America1953things began to go wrongFrance:protectionismCompetition from Australia and New ZealandImport substitution:cost too much,import parts and materialsexhausted foreign reserves buy things on creditsunable to pay loan interestsbankrupt why:the capital c

20、ity,Montevideo lacked the ranges of skills,the networks of producers goods and services,the practice at improvising and adapting necessary to make import-replacing a practical economic endeavor inflationunemployment,poverty,social political chaosmilitary dictatorship-peace and order of an economic g

21、raveyard 1980,the average purchasing power of consumers only half of it had been in 1968,which was half of that in 1950.l So,a region could be rich but still lack development-Fragile,helplessl Need to create a productive city for themselves,generate a complex and many-sided city regionl No good to be too specialized:controlled by distant marketl Decline of a supply region:-depletion-new substitutes for old products-political arrangement(EU)l compared to colonial economiesCuba?l 最重要的观点：要发展city region(似乎更适合描述长江三角洲，珠江三角洲？而北京又是什么样的区域？)