凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件.ppt

1、lHow does the stock market affect business investment?There are three direct effects.l股票市場如何影響商業投資?主要有三方面。lOne is that the market has traditionally served as a general barometer of the expectations of the business-minded community as a whole.l首先，股市一向為重要指標重要指標，能大略觀察大略觀察出投資人投資人的投資型態。lbarometer 氣壓計,晴雨表

2、;指標lWe say“business-minded”rather than“business”because the demand for,and supply for,securities mainly comes from securities dealers,stockbrokers,and the investing public,rather than from non-financial business enterprises themselves.l我們用投資人而不是商業界，因為證券交易的供需證券交易的供需並非來自企業本身，而是證券商、股票交易員證券商、股票交易員與投資大眾投

3、資大眾。lsecurities dealer 證券交易商lstockbroker 股票交易員lWhen the market is buoyant,it has been a signal to business that the“business climate”is favorable,and the effect on what Keynes called the“animal spirits”of executives has been to encourage them to go ahead with expansion plans.l當市場走向樂觀，代表景氣看好代表景氣看好，而那

4、些被凱恩斯形容為野心勃勃野心勃勃的主管、經理們，也將更勇於放手一搏、拓展企業。放手一搏、拓展企業。lbuoyant 上漲的;能浮起的lWhen the market is falling,on the other hand,spirits tend to be dampened,and executives may think twice before embarking on an expansion program in the face of general pessimism.l但另一方面，假如市場趨弱、投資人信心受打擊，主管們也不得不屈就現實、再三屈就現實、再三評估。評估。ldamp

5、en 使消沉;抑制lThis traditional relationship is,however,greatly lessened by the growing power of government to influence the trend of economic events.l然而，隨著政府對經濟走向的影響力日益日益增大增大，前述的傳統關係影響也日趨衰弱日趨衰弱。l lessen 削弱,減弱lBusiness once looked to the market as the key signal for the future.Today it looks to Washingto

6、n.l商界曾經將股市視為未來走向的一大指標指標，但今天這個地位被政府政府取代了。lHence,during the past decade when the stock market has shown wide swings,business investment in plant and equipment has remained basically steady.l因此，不管過去幾十年來股市是如何的大大起大落起大落，商界在工廠及設備的投資上還是保持穩定。lThis reflects the feelings of corporate managers that government p

7、olicy will keep the economy growing,whatever“the market”may think of events.l這也反映出企業管理者對政府的看法，他們認為無論股市的表現如何，政策都足以讓經濟穩定成長。lA second direct effect of the stock market on investment has to do with the ease of issuing new securities.l股市對投資的另一直接影響是，使債券發行輕而易舉輕而易舉。lOne of the ways in which investment is fi

8、nanced is through the issuance of new stocks or bonds whose proceeds will purchase plant and equipment.l在投資購買新工廠和設備時，可以發行新股票或債券來籌措資金籌措資金。l issuance 發行,發佈lWhen the market is rising,it is much easier to float a new issue than when prices are falling.l當市場景氣好時，上市上市新的股票會比在景氣差時來的容易。lThis is particularly t

9、rue for certain businesspublic utilities,for examplethat depend heavily on stock issues for new capital rather than on retained earnings.l這對部分的產業而言，為了新資金的挹入，它倚重倚重股票收益的程度大於保留盈餘，公用事業尤是如此。lretained earnings (會計)保留盈餘l Finally,when the market is very low,companies with large retained earnings may be temp

10、ted to buy up other companies,rather than use their funds for capital expenditure.l 最後，當市況低迷時，擁有大筆利潤的公司可能會收購其他家公司，而非當資本支出使用。l capital expenditure【會計】資本支出;基本建設費用 lFinancial investment,in other words,may take the place of real investment.l換句話說，金融投資可能會取代實質投資。lThis helps successful companies grow,but do

11、es not directly provide growth for the economy as a whole.l這會促進大企業的發展，但並不直接帶動帶動整體經濟的提升。Background Information凱恩斯的凱恩斯的”animal spirits”animal spirits”理論理論l Even apart from the instability due to speculation,there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of o

12、ur positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations,whether moral or hedonistic or economic.Most,probably,of our decisions to do something positive,the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come,can only be taken as the result of anima

13、l spirits-a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction,and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.l股市極易為大量無知的群眾心理所影股市極易為大量無知的群眾心理所影響，而產生劇烈波動，而一些投資大戶響，而產生劇烈波動，而一些投資大戶的神經、鬱悶，甚至他們的消化情形和的神經、鬱悶，甚至他們的消化情形和對天氣的反應都會造成股市的震盪，而對天氣的反應都會造成股市的震盪，而這樣劇烈的波動是無法以數學模型加以這樣劇烈的波動是無法以數學模型加以評估的，投資股市儘可依過去經驗加以評估的，投資股市儘可依過去經驗加以計算，但股市裡還是憑幻念、運氣行事計算，但股市裡還是憑幻念、運氣行事者居多。者居多。l股市長期而言須審慎評估l短期而言非理性居多l例子：l去年十月北韓試爆核彈，韓股重創，散戶狂拋，殊料隨後韓股大漲，使得出脫股票者扼腕不已；二千年秋政府停建核四，股價大跌，許多人認為撿便宜的時候到了，結果股市在兩個月內由七千一百點跌至四千八百點