MIGA的外部挑战和机课件.ppt

1、MIGA的外部挑战和机遇的外部挑战和机遇 The political risk investment insurance industry has been growing rapidly at the rate of 20-40 percent a year.However,the industry growth is susceptible to volatility due to the cyclical nature of the insurance business and/or potential occurrence of major claims and losses by i

2、nsurers.这种潜在的波动对MIGA来说提出了两类挑战：发挥反经济周期的催化能力（to play a counter-cyclical catalytic capacity）；确保有足够的再保险能力的可用性以促进MIGA的未来增长。业务快速增长中潜在的波动性业务快速增长中潜在的波动性 政治风险保险行业一直以惊人的速度高速增长，政治风险保险行业一直以惊人的速度高速增长，但潜在的波动依然存在。但潜在的波动依然存在。The global market for political risk insurance for investment currently enjoys a significan

3、tly rapid growth of 20-30 percent annually in terms of premium income(Exhibit 1).The market size is estimated to be as large as US$25-30 billion in annual gross coverage.Premium income by Berne Union members,mostly composed of public insurers including MIGA,has grown at 17 percent per year between 1

4、992 and 1997.Exhibit 1:Growth of Premium Income私营保险公司的增长私营保险公司的增长 政治风险保险市场增长的动力之一是私营政治风险保险市场增长的动力之一是私营保险公司日益增长的满足投资者和贷款人保险公司日益增长的满足投资者和贷款人保险需求的能力。当今，大约保险需求的能力。当今，大约50%-60%50%-60%的的保险市场是由私营保险公司所提供服务的，保险市场是由私营保险公司所提供服务的，而而MIGAMIGA在开发私营保险市场方面发挥了有在开发私营保险市场方面发挥了有益的作用。正如汉城公约所规定的，益的作用。正如汉城公约所规定的，MIGAMIGA相信

5、其有必要加强与私营保险公司的合作相信其有必要加强与私营保险公司的合作关系，并且确保其为私营保险公司的业务关系，并且确保其为私营保险公司的业务活动互为补充。活动互为补充。近年来，私营保险公司的业务活动有举足轻重的增长，其业务量每年以30-40%的比率增长，占市场份额的50%-60%。(Exhibit 16).(a)主要的保险机构包括劳埃德船舶保险公司Lloyds of London、美国国际保险集团公司AIG、Zurich US,Chubb&Son,and Sovereign Risk Insurance.If the current industry growth continues,the

6、premium share of private insurers could be as large as 60-70 percent by the end of the next five-year period.与公营保险机构更广泛的合作机会与公营保险机构更广泛的合作机会 A wide range of opportunities are available for MIGA to collaborate with other public agencies.In particular,export credit agencies in Category Two countries an

7、d multilateral development banks are increasingly interested in investment insurance.Diverse Investor Needs and Unmet Needs Investor needs for political risk insurance are significantly diverse,and this is reflected in their differentiated use of private and public insurers.Some investors have sophi

8、sticated risk management needs with a demand for large capacity,while others have relatively simple needs.Sizable unmet needs for political risk insurance still exist among investors,in terms of both the degree of risk mitigation and capacity availability for certain country markets.Linkage to Capit

9、al Markets A linkage between political risk insurance and capital markets as a potential means of transferring risks has emerged in recent years.Despite uncertainties in the pace of development in political risk insurance,this is an area where MIGA believes it can make a pioneering contribution to t

10、he entire political risk insurance industry through insurance of bond issuance in the short term and,potentially,portfolio“securitization”in the long term.Diversity of Investment Promotion Intermediaries The majority of developing countries,including transition economies,have established investment

11、promotion intermediaries.However,their capabilities,resources,and commitment vary significantly.The investment environmentbusiness,legal and regulatoryalso affects the effectiveness of these intermediaries.MIGAs service will continue to take this diversity into consideration,mindful of MIGAs limited

12、 resources.Increasing Importance of the Internet in Investment Promotion The advent of the World Wide Web has brought about profound changes in the world business environment,particularly in the ways in which organizations market themselves and employ information in their operations.The increased us

13、e of Internet-based communication channels in international business has significant implications for organizations involved in attracting foreign investment to their country,region or municipality.Unexplored Opportunities During MIGAs 12 years of operations,the political risk insurance industry has

14、 undergone a significant evolution.In this new industry environment,it would be worthwhile for MIGA to examine some unexplored areas of activity.Under MIGAs Convention and Operational Regulations,there are unexplored areas that MIGA can pursue in the long term(possibly in partnership with the privat

15、e sector)for which positive developmental impact could be expected.Some examples may include insurance for non-commercial risks other than political risk,reinsurance for private insurers,and research and knowledge dissemination.Exhibit 1:Comments on the Industrys Rapid GrowthThe political risk insur

16、ance industry is growing today at a very rapid rate:20-30 percent a year.“the private sector political risk insurance capacity is growing at a pace of 20-30%a year.”(Project Finance,March 1999)“Premium income quadrupled in the last 9 months(including trade credit insurance).”-insurer“Between this ye

17、ar and next year,our premium income is growing at about 40 percent.”-insurer“Premium income doubled in two years,tripled over the last 3 years”(indicating an annual growth of over 40 percent.)”-insurer“The global political risk insurance industry is growing at an annual rate of 25-30 percent.”-broke

18、rSource:Project Finance(March 1999);Private insurer interviews From the demand side,investor concerns about political risk have generally increased over the last five years.(a)About half of investors surveyed plan to increase their spending on political risk insurance for investment.Of these investo

19、rs,43 percent plan to increase their spending by more than 20 percent in the next two years.(b)Another driving force is the growth of complex infrastructure projects along with the continuing trend of privatization.(c)Moreover,banks have become more comfortable than in the past about buying politica

20、l risk insurance,especially from the private sector.From the supply side,the“soft”market or excess capacity supply in general commercial insurance in recent years works strongly in favor of the growth of the private political risk insurance sector,as much insurance capacity has been pursuing the gro

21、wth and profitability of political risk insurance(Exhibit 2).(a)The commercial(property and casualty)insurance industry is more than US$120 billion in premiums,with flat to negative growth and negative underwriting profitability.(b)The political risk insurance for investment is less than US$1 billio

22、n in market size measured by premiums,with a 20-30 percent growth and high underwriting profitability due to the relative absence of claims in recent years.Exhibit 2:Commercial Insurance and Political Risk Insurance投资者需求的多样性以及未满足的投资者需求的多样性以及未满足的需求需求 投资者对政治风险的需求大相径庭，表现投资者对政治风险的需求大相径庭，表现在选择不同的私营保险公司和官

23、方保险公在选择不同的私营保险公司和官方保险公司投保。司投保。有些投资者具有复杂的风险管理需求，要有些投资者具有复杂的风险管理需求，要求有很强的担保实力的保险机构承保政治求有很强的担保实力的保险机构承保政治风险；风险；有些则相对需求简单。有些则相对需求简单。MIGA has tried to play a unique role in its endeavors to promote foreign direct investment to developing member countries by enhancing the comparative advantages(or public

24、value)of its services to its clients.(a)This orientation is rooted in the historical vision of MIGA.The founders of MIGA envisioned the establishment of an independent legal entity within the World Bank Group whose sole objective was to promote productive investment in developing countries.(b)This h

25、as been particularly important and necessary for MIGA in light of the fact that this mandate can be fulfilled by other multilateral and bilateral agencies.(c)In the years to come,MIGAs services should be driven by those comparative advantages that it has established over time.In addition,such advant

26、ages will be enhanced,refined,or newly acquired if necessary,to better meet emerging client needs.MIGAMIGA的优势和长处的优势和长处 多边投资担保机构已确定了以下五个方面多边投资担保机构已确定了以下五个方面的比较优势：的比较优势：承保严格承保严格Underwriting rigor 投资者和私营保险公司或承保人都认可投资者和私营保险公司或承保人都认可MIGA承保业务的承保业务的高质量。高质量。Political risks are thoroughly analyzed,leveraging

27、 the network within the rest of the World Bank Group,and environmental,labor and other concerns are addressed beforehand.(a)For private insurers,it is reassuring that they can have access to high quality transactions through MIGA and this,therefore,is one of the important motivations for them to coo

28、perate with MIGA.Through the interviews,five insurers/brokers recognized this as MIGAs strengths(Exhibit 28).(b)MIGA always obtains a host country approval for a condition for the issuance of the guarantee,as stipulated by Article 15 of the Convention.(c)MIGAs unique role requires rigorous underwrit

29、ing,which takes time and other resourcesand this contrasts with the quick response time of private insurers.However:The Business Process Review that was introduced in fiscal 2000 is expected to improve MIGAs efficiency and effectiveness of the underwriting process;and For investors using MIGA,fast p

30、rocessing is less important than other purchasing factors such as types of risks covered,capacity per project,and track record and reputation,according to the investor survey.(d)Maintaining and strengthening MIGAs underwriting expertise will be critical in order to underwrite highly developmental,bu

31、t highly complex investment projects.Underwriting rigor is also important from the standpoint of preemptive front-end loss management through detailed analysis of risks and appropriate pricing of them.预防和解决问题的能力预防和解决问题的能力 Problem Prevention and Resolution CapabilityMIGA解决问题的能力得到同行保险公司（解决问题的能力得到同行保险公

32、司（peer insurers）和投资者）和投资者高度关注和尊重。高度关注和尊重。(a)大多数私营保险公司认为在这点上是与大多数私营保险公司认为在这点上是与MIGA的主要不同之处。的主要不同之处。Through the interviews,six insurers/brokers recognized this as MIGAs strengths(Exhibit 29).(b)Investors surveyed generally gave MIGA high ratings(higher than 7.5 on a 1-10 scale)on political clout and r

33、elationships with host country governments.(c)Problem prevention and resolution will be increasingly important in order for MIGA to be able to serve frontier countries or highly complex projects.This capability is also a major incentive to mobilize capital of private insurers into highly development

34、al projects in which they would otherwise not underwrite without joining forces with MIGA.MIGA预防和解决问题的能力预防和解决问题的能力Exhibit 29“MIGAs value-added includes the deterrent(umbrella)effect.Deterrent effect is obvious,with the backing of the World Bank group.”-insurer“MIGAs value is the deterrence effect.”-

35、insurer“MIGAs value added included the loss recovery capability,name value,access to best client base,and host country relationship.”-insurer“MIGAs unique advantage is its ability of problem resolution.With its World Bank network,MIGA can quickly muster expertise and experts and deal with the proble

36、m.”-insurer“MIGAs legal dispute resolution capability,based on its talent pool and expertise,is real and should be mobilized more actively in future.”-insurer“The key added value of MIGA,or being part of the WBG,is the deterrence”-broker主要投资者的高认可度主要投资者的高认可度Investors have a very high unaided awarenes

37、s of MIGA as a political risk insurance provider.This is comparable with national insurers such as OPIC,but much higher than most private insurers.The next challenge is to increase MIGAs visibility among investors in Category Two countries and in some Category One countries where national investment

38、 insurance schemes are less developed.(a)Over 70 percent of investors surveyed in the United States and in Europe showed unaided awareness of MIGA,two to three times higher than the awareness of well-known private insurers such as AIG and Lloyds of London(Exhibit 30).(“Unaided”awareness means the fi

39、rst few names that an investor mentions without being given choices.)(b)Among those investors who use mostly public insurers and who use both private and public insurers,85 percent and 81 percent,respectively,know MIGA,while investors whose needs can be met by private insurers showed an unaided awar

40、eness of 21 percent.(c)同时，在美国受调查的非同时，在美国受调查的非MIGA客户的客户的80%At the same time,80 percent of MIGAs non-clients surveyed in the United States and 90 percent of non-clients in Europe knows MIGA.(d)However,MIGAs recognition is not as high among companies in developing countries(and some Category One countr

41、ies)as in the United States or some European countries.Increased and targeted efforts are necessary to strengthen communications in this area,especially in view of promoting investments between Category Two countries.(e)High visibility is important for MIGAs strategy so that,whenever investors have

42、insurance needs that only MIGA could satisfy,they will inquire about MIGAs service.Exhibit 30:Investors Awareness of Political Risk InsurersPractical Applicability in Investment PromotionMIGAs comparative advantage lies in its ability to provide practical solutions to client organizations through it

43、s network to investors.Investment promotion intermediaries clearly recognize this strength of MIGA relative to other technical assistance providers.(a)MIGA has been developing the necessary comparative advantages in capacity building,for the last two years since the implementation of the 1998 reorie

44、ntation.To date,MIGA received one of the highest ratings in client satisfaction with the service(Exhibit 31).In particular,MIGA received the highest ratings among other technical assistance providers on the ability to deliver practical solutions and investor networking.MIGA also receives high rating

45、s from clients on its knowledge and expertise(See Exhibit 26).Exhibit 31:客户满意率客户满意率Client Satisfaction Rating(Average:Scale 1-10)(b)In a relatively short period of time,MIGA has built these areas of competence through staffing and product development.MIGA has started to recruit staff with front line

46、 experience in investment promotion and agency management,or in consulting to private sector investors.MIGA recently developed new tools that have enabled it to accurately assess and define the needs of the client,so that a solution geared to addressing these needs can be developed.(c)Continued deve

47、lopment and improvement of these advantages will be especially important for three reasons:First,the potential expectations of MIGA by investment promotion intermediaries are high,as demonstrated in strong interest by non-users of MIGA services.Second,most of these intermediaries,especially those th

48、at are relatively new and inexperienced,still do not clearly recognize which organization is the best provider of technical assistance for their particular needs.Third,MIGA should continue to differentiate its services from those provided by other agencies such as FIAS and UN organizations,so that t

49、hey can be complementary to the benefit of the clients.Expertise in the Use of the Internet for Investment PromotionWith the launch of IPAnet in 1995,MIGA was one of the first development agencies to offer an Internet-based information service targeted to its core constituency,and has maintained cut

50、ting-edge capability since then.(a)MIGAs strengths in the use of the Internet for investment promotion in developing countries are clearly recognized outside the World Bank Group.IPAnet was selected as a finalist by the Financial Times for its Business Web Site of the Year Award in 1998.Subsequently