1、全球贸易政策的数量分析 GTAP模型的原理及应用林海林海中国农业大学经济管理学院中国农业大学经济管理学院概要一、 GTAP简介二、学习的基础和教材三、GTAPAgg6的使用四、RunGTAP的使用五、GTAP模型结构一、GTAP简介nGTAP模型简介qGTAP=Global Trade Analysis Project，全球贸易分析项目。设立于1993年，是一个多区域、多部门CGE模型（可计算一般均衡，Computable General Equilibrium)。q应用领域：贸易、农业、能源环境，等等。q静态GTAP、动态GTAP。一、课程简介（续）q美国普度大学的全球贸易分析中心是GTAP
2、模型的研究、运用和推广的事务局。目前，GTAP模型作为分析贸易投资自由化等经济效果的工具，在世界各国得到广泛的运用，成为全球性标准。q此外，由学界、主要的国际机构（WTO、UNCTAD、OECD、世界银行等）以及美国、欧洲、澳大利亚、日本等国政府和研究机构的代表所组成的理事会，对研究活动给予了大力支持。它已经成为拥有众多国际机构会员的世界性组织。Dr. Hertelpurdue university一、GTAP简介（续）qGTAP模型的原理（数据结构、理论结构）qGTAP模型的操作技术q掌握GTAP的基本结构和运用、为今后的深入研究和使用打下基础。一、GTAP简介（续）nGTAP模型的使用程序
3、q确立问题、部门数和国家或地区qAggregation Scheme file、data base （GTAPAgg.exe）q建立模型 （RunGTAP.exe）q模型的闭合、设计冲击、选择解法q检查和分析结果。二、学习的基础和教材n理论基础q新古典经济学（微宏观经济学）。q国际贸易、或农业经济、或环境经济学，等等。n教材qThomas W.H., 1997, Global Trade Analysis: modeling and applications, New York: Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. qTechnical papers,
4、working papers in GTAP web.qHands-on by Ken Pearson.qGEMPACK user manual二、学习的基础和教材（续）n参考资料qJ. F. Francois and K. A. Reinert (eds.), 1997, Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis: A handbook, Cambridge: Cambridge U.Press.qDervis,Kemal,Jaime De Melo and Sherman Robinson,1982,General Equilibrium mode
5、l for development policy, New York: Cambridge U. Press.二、学习的基础和教材（续）n参考资料qDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division（United Nations），Handbook of input-output table compilation and analysis，New York : United Nations, 1999.qJ.B.Shoven & J.Whaley,1992,Appling General Equilibrium, Ca
6、mbridge University Press, England.qGrahan Pyatt & Jeffery I. Round, 1985, Social Accounting Matrices: A Basis for Planning, A world Bank Symposium, Copyright 1985 by the internationl Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank.二、学习的基础和教材（续）n参考资料qIFPRI (International Food Policy Research
7、Institute )的入门资料http:/www.ifpri.org/nExercises in General Equilibrium Modeling Using GAMS by Hans Lofgren ；nA Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS by Hans Lofgren, Rebecca Lee Harris, and Sherman RobinsonqORANI模型http:/www.monash.edu.au/policy/oranig.htmG: General?n对经济主体（家庭、企业、
8、政府、贸易、投资者等）的行为有确切描述。n各部分（行业、家庭、投资者、净出口商等）之间相互联系相互作用，构成整个经济体。（家庭效用最大化、企业利润最大化和成本最小化；其中，强调价格对家庭消费决策和企业生产决策的影响）E: Equilibrium?n市场均衡假定（通过价格的调整使得商品和要素的需求等于总供给）。 XD=XSn价格内生。 DX(PX,PX,PX,Y)=XS(PX,PX,PX,T)(WALRAS定理、机会成本体现了资源的有限)C: Computable?nNumerical Solution（CGE模型提供数值解）。nAnalytical vs Numerical Solution
9、nCGE模型的数据基础 投入产出表（IO table)、各种弹性值、社会核算矩阵（SAM）CGE=AGEnAGE=Applied General EquilibriumnCGE强调数据库、计算结果的阐述nAGE体现了为特定的国家或地区的经济政策提供数量的分析三、GTAPAgg7的使用nGTAP Database version 7.1q112 regions57 commodities(sectors) 5 factorsnGTAP Sectoral Classification (GSC) n113 regionsnAggregation Scheme file的制作四、RunGTAP的使用
10、n读入加总数据n模拟方案n模型闭合n政策冲击n模拟求解n结果分析五、GTAP模型结构n1、GTAP的sets简介n2、需求n3、生产（要素投入、中间投入、税/补贴）n4、国际贸易（出口税/补贴、国际运输成本、进口关 税）Overview of the GTAP.TAB Structuren Preliminaries: FILES SETS READ statements of Base Data Common VARIABLES Common COEFFICIENTS Modules: 1. Government Consumption 2. Private Consumption 3. F
11、irms 4. Investment, Global Bank, and Savings 5. International Trade 6. International Transport Services 7. Regional Household 8. Equilibrium Conditions Appendices: A. Summary Indices B. Equivalent Variation C. Welfare Decomposition D. Terms of Trade Decomposition1、GTAP的setsnViewHAR软件：阅读和编辑har形式的数据（H
12、eader Array or HAR files）。nBaseView.harThe dimension limits for Header Arrays are:qFor real numbers: up to and including 7 dimensionsqFor integer numbers: up to and including 2 dimensionsqFor character strings: only one dimensional arrays are allowed, each string being of the same length1、GTAP的sets
13、nGTAP数据: 一维 四维。 文字：GTAP data release identifier，SETS的定义文件。qBaseData.har、BaseRate.har、BaseView.har、Sets.har，等等。nGTAP的sets：见Sets.har文件。 Aide-Memoire for Sets |-| | DEMD_COMM | |-| | ENDW_COMM | TRAD_COMM | CGDS_COMM | |-| | NSAV_COMM | |-| | PROD_COMM | |-|集合集合TRAD_COMM和和PROD_COMMnTRAD_COMM Crops, Oth
14、erA, Mining,FoodP,LightM,HeavyM, Machinery,Utility,Construction,ServicesnPROD_COMMCrops,OtherA,Mining,FoodP,LightM,HeavyM, Machinery,Utility,Construction,Services, CGDS (Capital Goods)nSet REG # regions in the model # maximum size 10 read elements from file GTAPSETS header H1;Set TRAD_COMM # traded
15、commodities # maximum size 10 read elements from file GTAPSETS header H2;Set MARG_COMM # margin commodities # maximum size 10 read elements from file GTAPSETS header MARG;Subset MARG_COMM is subset of TRAD_COMM;Set NMRG_COMM # non-margin commodities # = TRAD_COMM - MARG_COMM;Set CGDS_COMM # capital
16、goods commodities # maximum size 1 read elements from file GTAPSETS header H9;Set ENDW_COMM # endowment commodities # maximum size 5 read elements from file GTAPSETS header H6;Set PROD_COMM # produced commodities # = TRAD_COMM union CGDS_COMM;Set DEMD_COMM # demanded commodities # = ENDW_COMM union
17、TRAD_COMM;Set NSAV_COMM # non-savings commodities # = DEMD_COMM union CGDS_COMM;Subset PROD_COMM is subset of NSAV_COMM; For Endowments |-| | ENDW_COMM | |-| | ENDWM_COMM | ENDWS_COMM | |-|nCoefficient (integer,parameter) (all,i,ENDW_COMM) SLUG(i) # sluggish primary factor endowments #;Read SLUG fro
18、m file GTAPPARM header SLUG;Set ENDWS_COMM # sluggish endowment commodities # = (all,i,ENDW_COMM: SLUG(i)0);Set ENDWM_COMM # mobile endowment commodities # = ENDW_COMM - ENDWS_COMM;Set ENDWC_COMM # capital endowment commodity # (capital);!Subset ENDWC_COMM is subset of ENDW_COMM;1、GTAP的setsn阅读GTAP数据
19、的基础q经济循环的过程；投入产出表的基本知识 q主要经济主体：qfirms (producers), qprivate household, and qgovernment are represented as economic agents. qPrivate household supply productive factors (labor and capital) to producers and obtain factor income in return. qGovernment revenues come from household income taxes, producer
20、s taxes, and taxes on international transactions (minus subsidies if exits). 1、GTAP的setsn投入产出表的基本知识q中间投入、原始投入、最终使用q等量关系。（横向、纵向、附加价值、GDP）nGTAP的Framework（图、Figure2.2）n变量关系实例：qVFM: Value of Firms purchases at Market pricesqVFM(i,j,r) = pm(i,r) * qfe(i,j,r); npm(i,r) # market price of commodity i in reg
21、ion r #;qEVFA: Endowments - Firms Purchases at Agents PricesqEVFA(i,j,r) = pfe(i,j,r) * qfe(i,j,r);npfe(i,j,r) firms price for endowment commodity i in ind. j, region r;qETAX(i,j,r) = VFA(i,j,r) - VFM(i,j,r); VFA(i,j,r) = EVFA(i,j,r) qETAX(i,j,r) tax on use of endowment good i by industry j in regio
22、n r ;全球模型的价格传导过程全球模型的价格传导过程2、需求、需求n国内供给的destinations?qPrivate householdsqGovernmentqfirms (Intermediates+investment)2、需求、需求nRegional household(h.h.) Expenditure = Incomen _/|_n _/ | _n _/ | _n _/ | _n _/ | _n Private h.h. | Government h.h.n ( PRIVEXP ) | ( GOVEXP )n _/_ | _/_n _/ _ | _/ _ n / | / nD
23、omestic Imported Savings Domestic Importedn Goods Goods ( SAVE ) Goods Goodsn( VDPA ) ( VIPA ) ( VDGA ) ( VIGA )n Note: The coefficients at the ends of branches aren Base Data, e.g., VDPA, SAVE.区域消费需求n私人家庭需求qVariable (all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,s,REG) ppm(i,s) # price of imports of i by private households
24、 in s #;qVariable (orig_level=1.0)(all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG)q pim(i,r) # market price of composite import i in region r #;Variable (orig_level=VIPM)(all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,s,REG) qpm(i,s) # private hhld demand for imports of i in region s #;Coefficient (ge 0)(all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VIPA(i,r) #
25、private consumption expenditure on imported i in r #;Private Households - Imports at Market Prices Update (all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VIPA(i,r) = ppm(i,r) * qpm(i,r);Coefficient (ge 0)(all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VIPM(i,r) # private consumption expenditure on i in r #;Private Households - Imports a
26、t Market Prices Update (all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VIPM(i,r)= pim(i,r) * qpm(i,r); pim(i,r) # market price of composite import i in region r #;VDPA(i,r) # private consumption expenditure on domestic i in r #;VDPM(i,r) # private consumption expenditure on domestic i in r #;n政府需求政府需求（VDGA、VDGM、 VIGA、
27、VIGM ）ngovernment的购买 VDGM(TRAD_COMM，REG) VDGA(TRAD_COMM，REG) VDGA-VDGM=?n企业需求企业需求nFirms的投资购买 VDFM(TRAD_COMM, CGDS, REG) VDFA(TRAD_COMM， CGDS, REG) VDFA-VDFM=?nFirms的中间使用 VDFM(TRAD_COMM, PROD_COMM, REG) PROD_COMMCGDS VDFA(TRAD_COMM, PROD_COMM, REG) PROD_COMMCGDS VDFA-VDFM=?3、生产n Production structuren
28、 qo(j,r) ao(j,r) / / / | / - CES / | / / | / / | / Land Labor Capital Domestic Foreign qfe(i,j,r) qfd(i,j,r) qfm(i,j,r) afe(i,j,r)nqva(j,r) # value added in industry j of region r #;nqf(i,j,r) # demand for commodity i for use by j in region r #;3、生产(原始投入)nEVFA-VFM=? 税/补贴n某国某一行业的增加值（ Agents Prices ）=
29、？nVOA(i,r) # value of commodity i output in region r at agents prices #;nEVOA(ENDW_COMM, REG)= ? Endowments - Output at Agents PricesnVariable (all,i,NSAV_COMM)(all,r,REG) ps(i,r) # supply price of commodity i in region r #;Variable (orig_level=VOM)(all,i,NSAV_COMM)(all,r,REG) qo(i,r) # industry out
30、put of commodity i in region r #;Coefficient (ge 0)(all,i,ENDW_COMM)(all,r,REG) EVOA(i,r) # value of commodity i output in region r #;Update (all,i,ENDW_COMM)(all,r,REG) EVOA(i,r) = ps(i,r) * qo(i,r);3、生产（中间投入）nVIFA：Intermediates - Firms Imports at Agents PricesqVIFA（TRAD_COMM， PROD_COMM，REG）qVIFA(i
31、,j,r) # purchases of imported i for use by j in region r #;qVIFM(i,j,r) # purchases of imports i for use by j in region r #;qVIFA-VIFM=?nVDFA : Intermediates - Firms Domestic Purchases at Agents PricesqVDFA（TRAD_COMM， PROD_COMM，REG）qVDFM(i,j,r) # purchases of domestic i for use by j in region r #;qV
32、DFA(i,j,r) # purchases of domestic i for use by j in region r #;qVDFA-VDFM=? IFTAX(i,r,s) # tax on use of imported intermediate good i by j in r #;DFTAX(i,j,r) # tax on use of domestic intermediate good i by j in r;2、生产（总产出）nVOA：Value of Output at Agents Prices VOA (TRAD_COMM， REG)=? VOA+PTAX=VOMnVO
33、M (TRAD_COMM， REG): Value of Output at Market Pricesn如何计算VOA和VOM？n为生产为生产j而使用的而使用的i的开支的开支:Coefficient (all,i,DEMD_COMM)(all,j,PROD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VFA(i,j,r) # producer expenditure on i by j in r valued at agents prices #;Formula (all,i,ENDW_COMM)(all,j,PROD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VFA(i,j,r) = EVFA(i,j,r)
34、;Formula (all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,j,PROD_COMM)(all,s,REG) VFA(i,j,s) = VDFA(i,j,s) + VIFA(i,j,s);Coefficient (all,i,NSAV_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOA(i,r) # value of commodity i output in region r at agents prices #;Formula (all,i,ENDW_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOA(i,r) = EVOA(i,r);为生产为生产i而使用的、所有的而使用的、所有的j的开支合成的开支合成i的产
35、值的产值:Formula (all,i,PROD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOA(i,r) = sum(j,DEMD_COMM, VFA(j,i,r);nCoefficient (all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VDM(i,r) # domestic sales of i in r at mkt prices (tradeables only) #;Formula (all,i,TRAD_COMM)(all,r,REG) VDM(i,r) = VDPM(i,r) + VDGM(i,r) + sum(j,PROD_COMM, VDFM(i,j,r);Coeffi
36、cient (all,i,NSAV_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOM(i,r) # value of commodity i output in region r at market prices #;Formula (all,i,ENDW_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOM(i,r) = sum(j,PROD_COMM, VFM(i,j,r);Formula (all,m,MARG_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOM(m,r) = VDM(m,r) + sum(s,REG, VXMD(m,r,s) + VST(m,r);Formula (all,i,NMRG_COMM)(
37、all,r,REG) VOM(i,r) = VDM(i,r) + sum(s,REG, VXMD(i,r,s);Formula (all,h,CGDS_COMM)(all,r,REG) VOM(h,r) = VOA(h,r);VDM国内销售部分、国内销售部分、VXMD出口出口FOB部分、部分、VST出口运出口运费部分费部分(贸易品不一定都有贸易品不一定都有)4、国际贸易（进口关 税、出口税/补贴、国际运输成本）n进口 VIWS(TRAD_COMM, REG, REG) Bilateral Imports at World Prices VIMS(TRAD_COMM, REG, REG) Bil
38、ateral Imports at Market Prices VIMS- VIWS=关税和非关税贸易壁垒MTAX(i,r,s) = VIMS(i,r,s) - VIWS(i,r,s);# change in ratio of import tax payments to regional income #(all,r,REG) 100.0 * INCOME(r) * del_taxrimp(r) + TIM(r) * y(r) = sum(i,TRAD_COMM, sum(s,REG, VIMS(i,s,r) * tm(i,r) + tms(i,s,r) + MTAX(i,s,r) * pc
39、if(i,s,r) + qxs(i,s,r);4、国际贸易n出口（国际贸易矩阵）出口（国际贸易矩阵）qVXMD(TRAD_COMM , REG, REG) Bilateral Exports at Market PricesqVXWD(TRAD_COMM, REG, REG) Bilateral Exports at World PricesqVIWS(TRAD_COMM, REG, REG) Bilateral Imports at World PricesqVXWD-VXMD=出口关税/补贴qVIWS-VXWD=运输成本（损耗，等等）4、国际贸易n国际运输特殊的出口 VST(MARG_CO
40、MM , REG) Exports for International Transportation, Market PricesnSUM(MARG_COMM , REG, VST(*, *) ) = n SUM(TRAD_COMM, REG, REG, VIWS (*, *, *) -VXWD (*, *, *) )q其中的MARG_COMM =(otp,wtp,atp)notp Transport nec (Services)nwtp Sea transport (Services)natp Air transport (Services)复习：（总产出）nVOA：Value of Output at Agents Prices VOA (TRAD_COMM， REG)=? VOA+PTAX=VOMnVOM ：Value of Output at Market Pricesn如何计算VOA和VOM？同学请注意nUNCOMTRADE数据下载方法及其在GTAP模型分析中的应用nSTATA使用方法简介
