1、Topics covered Microeconomics and Macroeconomics Introduction to balance of payments The macro meaning of the current account balanceMicroeconomics and MacroeconomicsMicroeconomics It studies the effective use of scarce resources from the perspective of individual firms and consumers.微观经济学研究的是经济社会中经
2、济个体的经济行为，这里的经济个体包括消费者、生产者微观经济学研究的是经济社会中经济个体的经济行为，这里的经济个体包括消费者、生产者(企业企业)和要素所有者等。这些经济个体或经济单位又通过市场产生相互联系、相互影响和相互和要素所有者等。这些经济个体或经济单位又通过市场产生相互联系、相互影响和相互作用作用. 。微观经济学阐述经济社会中的经济个体根据什么和怎样做出经济决策，例。微观经济学阐述经济社会中的经济个体根据什么和怎样做出经济决策，例如：消费者怎样作出购买产品和劳务的决策；企业针对消费者需求与收益和成本如：消费者怎样作出购买产品和劳务的决策；企业针对消费者需求与收益和成本的比较关系怎样作出生产
3、的决策；工人怎样决定劳动流向与劳动流量等等。的比较关系怎样作出生产的决策；工人怎样决定劳动流向与劳动流量等等。 Macroeconomics It studies how economies overall levels of employment, production, and growth are determined.宏观经济学以整个国民经济作为研究对象，研究经济总量的决定及其变化规律。宏观经济学以整个国民经济作为研究对象，研究经济总量的决定及其变化规律。具体来说，就是研究国民收入决定和变动；长期的经济增长和短期的经济波动；具体来说，就是研究国民收入决定和变动；长期的经济增长和短期的经
4、济波动；以及相关的通货膨胀、失业和国际收支等问题。宏观经济学通过经济总量的分析以及相关的通货膨胀、失业和国际收支等问题。宏观经济学通过经济总量的分析以期为政府制定宏观经济政策提供理论依据。以期为政府制定宏观经济政策提供理论依据。 It emphasizes four aspects of economic life: Unemployment Saving Trade imbalances Money and the price levelMicroeconomics and Macroeconomics The national income accounts and the balance
5、 of payments accounts are essential tools for studying the macroeconomics of open, interdependent economies. National income accounting Records all the expenditures that contribute to a countrys income and output Balance of payments accounting Helps us keep track of both changes in a countrys indebt
6、edness to foreigners and the fortunes of its export- and import-competing industrieswhy do we need to study “International finance”With few remaining barriers to international trade and financial flows, and with important financial events impacting immediately around the globe, all finance is “inter
7、national”. Domestic financial markets are closely linked and internationally integrated.国际金融学是研究国际间货币运动和资本流动的方国际金融学是研究国际间货币运动和资本流动的方式、规律及其影响的学科式、规律及其影响的学科.随着全球经济一体化趋随着全球经济一体化趋势的不断发展，我国经济将在更广和更深的领域势的不断发展，我国经济将在更广和更深的领域和范围内融入到世界经济当中，国际金融学必将和范围内融入到世界经济当中，国际金融学必将在我国经济的未来发展中发挥越来越大的作用。在我国经济的未来发展中发挥越来越大的作用
8、。 A knowledge of international finance helps in two very important ways. First, it helps the financial manager decide how international events will affect a firm and which steps can be taken to exploit positive developments and insulate the firm from harmful ones. Second, it helps the manager to ant
9、icipate events and to make profitable decisions before the events occur. Among the events that affect the firm and that the manager must anticipate are changes in exchange rates, as well as in interest rates, inflation rates, and asset values.Balance of payments The balance of payments (BOP) is the
10、method countries use to monitor all international monetary transactions at a specific period of time. Usually, the BOP is calculated every quarter and every calendar year. All trades conducted by both the private and public sectors are accounted for in the BOP in order to determine how much money is
11、 going in and out of a country. 指一个国家或地区与世界上其他国家或地区之间发指一个国家或地区与世界上其他国家或地区之间发生的跨国资金转移而引起的国际间资金收支行为生的跨国资金转移而引起的国际间资金收支行为 A countrys balance of payments is a systematic account of all the exchanges of value between residents of that country and the rest of the world. Balance of Payments Accounting国际收支平
12、衡表国际收支平衡表 A complete tabulation of the total market value of goods, services, and financial assets that domestic residents, firms, and governments exchange with residents of other nations during a given period.国际收支平衡表示在给定时期内，国内居民、企业和国际收支平衡表示在给定时期内，国内居民、企业和政府与外国居民（企业、政府部门）进行货物、服务政府与外国居民（企业、政府部门）进行货物、
13、服务和金融资产交易的市场总值的完整汇总表。和金融资产交易的市场总值的完整汇总表。Definition国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡表 按照一定的编制原则和格式，排列组合特按照一定的编制原则和格式，排列组合特定时期内一国经济主体与他国经济主体之定时期内一国经济主体与他国经济主体之间的各项经济交易间的各项经济交易 是全面系统地记录和总结一国国际收支状是全面系统地记录和总结一国国际收支状况的统计报表况的统计报表 是反映一国对外经济发展、偿债能力等的是反映一国对外经济发展、偿债能力等的重要文件，也是各国制定开放经济宏观经重要文件，也是各国制定开放经济宏观经济政策的重要依据济政策的重要依据Balance o
14、f payments Two flows occur in any exchange: credit (+) and debit (-). If a country has received money, this is known as a credit (+), and, if a country has paid or given money, the transaction is counted as a debit (-). Theoretically, the BOP should be zero, meaning that assets (credits) and liabili
15、ties (debits) should balance. But in practice this is rarely the case and, thus, the BOP can tell the observer if a country has a deficit or a surplus and from which part of the economy the discrepancies are stemming. The BOP is divided into two main categories: the current account and capital (fina
16、ncial) account. Within these two categories are sub-divisions, each of which accounts for a different type of international monetary transaction. 一、经常项目（一、经常项目（Current AccountCurrent Account） 1 1商品商品(Goods) (Goods) 2 2服务服务(Service)(Service) 3 3收入和支付收入和支付 (Income Receipts and Payments)(Income Receipt
17、s and Payments) 4 4单方面转移单方面转移(Unilateral Transfers)(Unilateral Transfers) 二、资本和金融项目二、资本和金融项目(Capital and Financial Account)(Capital and Financial Account) 1. 1. 资本项目资本项目(Capital Account)(Capital Account) 2 2金融项目金融项目(Financial Account)(Financial Account) 直接投资（直接投资（Direct Investment)Direct Investment)
18、 证券投资证券投资(Portfolio Investment)(Portfolio Investment) 其它投资其它投资(Other Investment)(Other Investment) 储备资产储备资产(Reserve Assets)(Reserve Assets) 三三. . 错误与遗漏错误与遗漏(Errors and Omissions Account)(Errors and Omissions Account)Balance of Payments Accounting 国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡表正确理解正确理解BOP和和BOPs 强调居民与非居民的交易而不是资金收付强调居
19、民与非居民的交易而不是资金收付 国际收支国际收支 外汇收支外汇收支 考察流量而不是存量，记录发生额而不是考察流量而不是存量，记录发生额而不是持有额持有额 国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡表 国家资产负债表国家资产负债表正确理解正确理解BOP和和BOPs（续）（续） 理论上全球国际收支差额可以彼此抵消，理论上全球国际收支差额可以彼此抵消，但事实并不如此但事实并不如此 存在巨大的全球贸易逆差存在巨大的全球贸易逆差 国际收支经常不平衡，但国际收支平衡表国际收支经常不平衡，但国际收支平衡表永远账面平衡永远账面平衡 设置设置“储备资产变动储备资产变动”和和“错误与遗漏错误与遗漏”项目项目Balance of
20、payments - current account The Current Account is used to mark the inflow and outflow of goods and services into a country. Earnings on investments, both public and private, are also put into the current account. Within the current account are credits and debits on the trade of merchandise, which in
21、cludes goods such as raw materials and manufactured goods that are bought, sold or given away (possibly in the form of aid). 货物货物/商品：有形贸易，记录商品的进出口。包含商品：有形贸易，记录商品的进出口。包含五种：一般商品、用于加工的货物、货物修理、五种：一般商品、用于加工的货物、货物修理、各种运输工具在港口购买的货物、非货币黄金。各种运输工具在港口购买的货物、非货币黄金。 Services refer to receipts from tourism, transp
22、ortation (like the levy that must be paid in Egypt when a ship passes through the Suez Canal), engineering, business service fees (from lawyers or management consulting, for example), and royalties from patents and copyrights. 服务：无形贸易，记录服务的输出入。包括运输、服务：无形贸易，记录服务的输出入。包括运输、旅游、通讯服务、建筑服务、保险服务、金融服务、旅游、通讯服
23、务、建筑服务、保险服务、金融服务、计算机和信息服务、专有权利使用费和特许费、咨计算机和信息服务、专有权利使用费和特许费、咨询、广告宣传、电影、音像，其他商业服务、别处询、广告宣传、电影、音像，其他商业服务、别处未提及的政府服务。未提及的政府服务。Income Receipts and Payments 收入和支付（1）Income ReceiptsThe income category tabulates interest and dividend payments to foreign residents and governments who hold domestic financial
24、 assets. It also includes payments received by domestic residents and governments who hold financial assets abroad.收入：指居民与非居民之间有关金融资产与负债的收入：指居民与非居民之间有关金融资产与负债的收入与支出，包括有关直接投资、证券投资和其它收入与支出，包括有关直接投资、证券投资和其它投资所得收入与支出投资所得收入与支出 。职工报酬：包括个人在非居民经济体为该经济体职工报酬：包括个人在非居民经济体为该经济体居民工作而得到的现金或实物形式的工资、薪居民工作而得到的现金或实物形式
25、的工资、薪水和福利水和福利 。（2） PaymentsRewards, salary, etc, paid between residents and non-residents.Unilateral Transfers: measures international transfers, or gifts, among individuals or governments. 单方面转移：记录了个人和政府间的国际转移或赠送。Includes items such as:Government grants abroad （政府国际赠送）Private remittances （私人汇款） Pri
26、vate grants abroad例如：中国对某个刚刚遭遇自然灾害的国家提供价值500，000美元的大米作为人道主义援助。经常项目经常项目(current account) 货物货物 记录有形货物的进出口数量。包含五种：一般商品、记录有形货物的进出口数量。包含五种：一般商品、用于加工的货物、货物修理、各种运输工具在港口购用于加工的货物、货物修理、各种运输工具在港口购买的货物、非货币黄金。买的货物、非货币黄金。 服务服务 记录服务、观光旅游和军需交易的进出口数量记录服务、观光旅游和军需交易的进出口数量 收入收入 记录涉外的职工报酬和投资收入记录涉外的职工报酬和投资收入 单方面转移单方面转移 记
27、录个人或政府间的国际转移或赠与记录个人或政府间的国际转移或赠与CASE 1 以某同学出国为例以某同学出国为例某同学出国旅游某同学出国旅游乘坐国外航班乘坐国外航班（运输服务）（运输服务）在国外购买人身意在国外购买人身意外险（保险服务）外险（保险服务）在国外给家人打在国外给家人打电话（通讯服务）电话（通讯服务）在国外银行使用旅在国外银行使用旅游支票（金融服务）游支票（金融服务）在国外上网查找旅在国外上网查找旅游景点（计算机和游景点（计算机和信息服务）信息服务）到某咨询公司咨询到某咨询公司咨询出国留学事宜（咨出国留学事宜（咨询服务）询服务）CASE 2 讨论以下涉及什么服务讨论以下涉及什么服务赤壁在
28、日本上映赤壁在日本上映在日本全国性的报纸朝日、读卖、每日新闻等彩页进行连载。在电在日本全国性的报纸朝日、读卖、每日新闻等彩页进行连载。在电视上加大宣传力度。该剧组在东京电影节的风光亮相更扩大了影片视上加大宣传力度。该剧组在东京电影节的风光亮相更扩大了影片在大众中的影响。在大众中的影响。2009年年2月月5日，在东京六本木新城日，在东京六本木新城TOHO影城召影城召开的电影试映会上，参演开的电影试映会上，参演赤壁赤壁2的演员林志玲、金城武，以及导的演员林志玲、金城武，以及导演吴宇森站上了舞台。演吴宇森站上了舞台。赤壁赤壁如此压倒性宣传的费用有传言约在如此压倒性宣传的费用有传言约在12亿日元左右。
29、亿日元左右。直至直至11月月30日为止，入场欣赏的观众已累积达日为止，入场欣赏的观众已累积达305万万4千多人次，票千多人次，票房高达房高达37亿亿4千万日元（逾千万日元（逾3亿港元）。日本媒体估计，该片在日本亿港元）。日本媒体估计，该片在日本的最终票房将超过的最终票房将超过英雄英雄，突破，突破50亿日元。亿日元。赤壁赤壁The balance of payments-capital account The capital account is where all international capital transfers are recorded. It is a record of a
30、ll international transactions for assets including bonds, treasury bills, bank deposits, stocks, currency, real estate, etc. Also included are government-owned assets such as foreign reserves, gold, special drawing rights (SDRs) held with the International Monetary Fund, private assets held abroad,
31、and direct foreign investment. Assets owned by foreigners, private and official, are also recorded in the financial account.资本和金融项目资本和金融项目(capital & financil account) 资本项目资本项目 资本转移资本转移 非生产、非金融资产的收买非生产、非金融资产的收买/放弃放弃 金融项目金融项目 直接投资直接投资 证券投资证券投资 其他投资其他投资 储备资产变动储备资产变动储备资产变动储备资产变动 记录中央银行或财政部门等官方政府机构记录中央银行
32、或财政部门等官方政府机构的国际交易活动的国际交易活动 官方储备资产包括货币性黄金、特别提款官方储备资产包括货币性黄金、特别提款权、在国际货币基金的储备头寸、外汇储权、在国际货币基金的储备头寸、外汇储备等备等 往往是出于对冲私人部门国际交易影响的往往是出于对冲私人部门国际交易影响的目的而发生，也被称作平衡项目，制表时目的而发生，也被称作平衡项目，制表时单独列示单独列示错误与遗漏项目错误与遗漏项目(errors & omissions) 国际收支平衡表专门设置的平衡项目国际收支平衡表专门设置的平衡项目 设置原因设置原因 隐瞒交易导致原始资料失真隐瞒交易导致原始资料失真 技术困难造成交易记录不完全技
33、术困难造成交易记录不完全 各子项目分别统计，口径难以一致各子项目分别统计，口径难以一致 功能功能 使国际收支平衡表的借贷双方实现平衡使国际收支平衡表的借贷双方实现平衡 根据前三个项目的汇总结果，以相同数字记入根据前三个项目的汇总结果，以相同数字记入会计账户的相反方向会计账户的相反方向Summary(I) Current Account Exports Merchandise (tangible goods) Services (invisible trade, e.g. legal, consulting, royalties, patents etc.) Factor Income (int
34、erest, dividend or any other foreign investment income)Imports Merchandise Services Factor income Unilateral Transfers (one way unrequited payments, e.g.: foreign aid, grants, gifts etc.) (II) Capital Account Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Portfolio Investment Equity Securities Debt Securities Othe
35、r Investment (transactions in currency, bank deposits, trade credits etc.) Statistical discrepancies (III) Foreign Reserves Official Reserve account, includes gold, foreign exchanges, SDRs, reserves in IMF The formula: current account = capital account + foreign reservesSummary Money coming in (Cred
36、it+), or leaving (Debit):+ Exports Imports Increase of owned assets abroad + Increase of foreign-owned assets in the country An account may show a surplus or a deficit. For example, a trade surplus implies that a countrys exports are higher than its imports and hence there is a net flow of money int
37、o the country. A trade deficit, on the other hand, implies that the countrys imports exceed its exports and hence there is a net flow of money out of the country.For a country to have a zero balance of payments, a current account deficit must be balanced by a capital account surplus. The US have bee
38、n running a negative current account for a long while, which is financed through a positive financial account. The only way to buy more than you sell is to borrow money.A country will have a negative balance of payments (i.e., there is to be a net flow of money out of the country) if the net of the
39、current account and the capital account is a deficit. Similarly, there will be a positive balance of payments (i.e., a net flow of money into a country) if the net of the current and the capital account results in a surplus.U.S. Balance of payments account, 2019credit debit1.Exports of goods and ser
40、vices and income received$1,282Merchandise exports 719Service exports (travel, business service, etc.) 279Income receipts from foreigners 2845.Imports of goods and services and income paid-1,626Merchandise imports-1,146Services imports (travel, business service, etc.) -210Income payments to foreigne
41、rs -2699.Unilateral transfers, net -49U.S. government transfers to foreigners -17Private remittances and other transfers -3212.Changes in U.s. holdings of foreign assets -366U.S. direct investment abroad -128Other U.S. investments abroad -23815.Changes in foreign holdings of U.S. assets (excluding o
42、fficial international reserves), net 748Foreign direct investments in the U.S. 131U.S. holdings of official reserve assets 61718. Changes in holdings of official international reserves, net 0Foreign official holdings of U.S. assets 5U.S. holdings of official reserve assets -521.Statistical discrepan
43、cy 1122.Net balance of credits minus debits 0Six Key BalancesMerchandise trade balance (lines 2 and 6) -427Goods and services balance (lines 2, 3, 6, and 7) -358Goods, services and income balance (lines 1 and 5) -344Current account balance (lines 1, 5 and 9) -393Net private capital flows and statist
44、ical discrepancy 3932.Overall balance (lines 26 and 27, or the negative of line 18) 0Questions and ProblemsWhich of the following transactions would contribute to a U.S. current account surplus?Boeing barters a $100 million plane to Mexico in exchange for $100 million worth of hotel services on the
45、Mexican coast.The United States borrows $100 million long term from Saudi Arabia to buy $100 million of Saudi oil this year.The US sells a $100 million jet to Turkey for $100 million in bank deposits.The US government makes a gift of $100 million to the government of Greece, in the form of New York
46、bank deposits, to pay for injuries caused by Turkish jet attacks.1.The British central bank buys $100 million in US-dollar bank deposits from a New York bank, paying by providing pound bank deposits to the New York bank.Reference answers Only transaction 3 contributes to a surplus in the current acc
47、ount because it is an export of merchandise that is paid for through an item in the capital account. Transaction 1 leaves the current account unchanged because it is both an export and an import. Transaction 2 contributes to a deficit in the current account because it is an import. Transaction 4 als
48、o contributes to a current account deficit because of the outflow as a unilateral transfer. Transaction 5 affects no items in the current account.Questions and ProblemsWhat are the effects of each of the following on the US international investment position?Foreign central banks increase their offic
49、ial holdings of US government securities.US residents increase their holdings of stocks issued by Japanese companies.a. A British pension fund sells some of its holdings of the stocks of US companies in order to buy US corporate bonds.Reference answersThe US international investment position decline
50、s an increase in foreign investments in the US (an increase in what the US owes to foreigners)The US international investment position rises an increase in private US investment abroad (an increase in US claims on foreigners)The US international investment position is unchanged. The composition of f
