1、The Dynamic Environment of International Trade国际贸易的动态环境Topic # 5Chapter # 2The Twentieth to the Twenty First Century20世纪到世纪到21世纪世纪 The first half of The Twentieth Century was marred by two major global conflicts, and The Great Depression.20世纪的前半叶两次世界大战和经济大萧条损毁世纪的前半叶两次世界大战和经济大萧条损毁 World War 1 1914 to
2、 1918第一次世界大战第一次世界大战1914-1918 The Great Depression 1929 to 1939大萧条时期大萧条时期1929-1939 World War 2 1939 to 1945第二次世界大战第二次世界大战1939-1945The Marshall Plan马歇尔计划马歇尔计划 The Marshall plan; Was a plan aimed at the rebuilding of Europe and Japan after their destruction during the Second World War.马歇尔计划马歇尔计划:计划的目的是
3、重建在二战中摧毁的欧洲和日本计划的目的是重建在二战中摧毁的欧洲和日本 Agency of International Development; was an organization created after WW2 where member countries could invest funds to help foster economic development in underdeveloped countries in order to create a stronger world economy.国际开发总署国际开发总署:二二战后成立的组织战后成立的组织,为了更强大的全球经济
4、为了更强大的全球经济,成员国可以在不发成员国可以在不发达国家投资促进经济发展达国家投资促进经济发展 The benefits flowed both ways, since for every dollar developed countries invested in underdeveloped countries, they received hundreds of dollars in return on invested capital in the form of manufactured goods, agricultural goods, etc. Since the Nort
5、h American economies and infrastructures had not been ravaged by the war, they were the main benefactors of the post war economic resurgence. The United States and Canada became rich countries!利益有两方面利益有两方面,发达国家的每一美元投资发达国家的每一美元投资都投入到不发达国家都投入到不发达国家,以工业品以工业品,农产品为形式作为投入资本农产品为形式作为投入资本的回报的回报.因为北美国家的经济和基础设
6、施没在战争中破坏因为北美国家的经济和基础设施没在战争中破坏,他他们是战后经济复苏的主要资助者们是战后经济复苏的主要资助者,美国和加拿大聚敛财富美国和加拿大聚敛财富GATT关税和贸易总协定关税和贸易总协定 GATT (General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade); In 1947 GATT was ratified by 23 member nations. Their goal was to limit trade barriers and increase global trade among nations.关税关税和贸易总协定和贸易总协定:1947年年2
7、3个国家批准了个国家批准了GATT,他们的目标是降低贸他们的目标是降低贸易壁垒和增加全球贸易易壁垒和增加全球贸易 During the world wars trade amongst warring nations had all but stopped, and in the period between the wars there was an atmosphere of protectionism. This lead to tariffs as high as 60% on many products to limit trade, and is one of the causes
8、 of The Great Depression! After the wars world leaders sought cooperation and trade!战争期间战争期间,交战国的贸易停止了交战国的贸易停止了,贸易保贸易保护主义盛行护主义盛行,许多产品的关税高达许多产品的关税高达60%,这限制了贸易这限制了贸易,这也是导致这也是导致经济大萧条的原因之一经济大萧条的原因之一,战后世界的领导者寻求合作和贸易战后世界的领导者寻求合作和贸易 Trade Investment Measures (TRIMS); Established the basic principle that in
9、vestment restrictions can be major trade barriers. 贸易投资措施贸易投资措施:建立的投资限制的建立的投资限制的基本原则可能会成为主要的贸易壁垒基本原则可能会成为主要的贸易壁垒The World Trade Organization世界贸易组织世界贸易组织 The World Trade Organization (WTO); Was created in 1994 as an institution to deal with, and eliminate trade disputes amongst the 132 member countri
10、es.世贸世贸:1994成立的机构旨在处理和消除成立的机构旨在处理和消除132个成员国之间的贸易争个成员国之间的贸易争端端 The Uruguay Round; GATT became part of WTO and the number of nations seeking global barrier free trade increased to 117 nations.乌拉圭会谈乌拉圭会谈:关税和贸易总关税和贸易总协定成为世贸的一部分协定成为世贸的一部分,更多的国家寻求全球的自由贸易更多的国家寻求全球的自由贸易,成员国成员国增至增至117个个Skirting the Spirit of
11、 GATT and WTO回避回避关贸协定和世贸精神关贸协定和世贸精神 The WTO has been trying to set health and safety standards and work place rights across all member nations. They also try to enforce patent and trademark protection, however many developing nations are slow to comply.世贸努力在成员国中建立安全的标准世贸努力在成员国中建立安全的标准,他们也实施专他们也实施专利和
12、商标保护利和商标保护,然而许多发展中国家推行的很慢然而许多发展中国家推行的很慢 There is also different levels of institutionalised corruption and influence within different member nations that create problems for businesses and countries involved in trade.不同成员国的不同程度的制度化不同成员国的不同程度的制度化的腐败和影响使商业和国家的贸易产生了问题的腐败和影响使商业和国家的贸易产生了问题The Internation
13、al Monetary Fund国际货国际货币基金组织币基金组织 The International Monetary Fund (IMF); Was formed after WW2 to stabilise foreign exchange rates and the establishment of freely convertible currencies to facilitate the expansion and balanced growth of international trade. (181 member countries)国际货币基金组织国际货币基金组织:二战后成立
14、二战后成立,致力于稳定货币汇率致力于稳定货币汇率和建立自由兑换货币促进扩张和建立自由兑换货币促进扩张,平衡国际贸易的增长（平衡国际贸易的增长（181个成员个成员国国）The World Bank世界银行世界银行 The World Bank; Is an institution that has as its goal the reduction of poverty and the improvement of living standards by promoting sustainable growth and investment in people.世界银行世界银行:这一机构的目标在
15、于这一机构的目标在于减少贫困减少贫困,提高生活质量提高生活质量,促进可持续增长和投资促进可持续增长和投资 There are five institutions within The World Bank providing service for poor and developing countries.世界银行中有五个体系为贫穷和发展中国家提供服务世界银行中有五个体系为贫穷和发展中国家提供服务Services Provided by The World Bank世世界银行提供的服务界银行提供的服务 1. Lending money to the economies of developi
16、ng countries to finance development projects in education, health, and infrastructure.为发展中国家提供贷款支持教为发展中国家提供贷款支持教育育,医疗医疗,基础设施的建设基础设施的建设 2. Providing assistance to governments for developmental projects to the poorest developing countries, (per capita income of $925).为最贫穷国家的为最贫穷国家的政府的发展项目提供援助政府的发展项目提供
17、援助(平均每人每年平均每人每年925美元美元) 3. lending directly to the private sector to help strengthen private business sector in developing economies.在发展中国家直接对私营部门投资增强私营企在发展中国家直接对私营部门投资增强私营企业业 4. Providing investors with investment guarantees against non commercial risk factors.为投资者提供投资为投资者提供投资保证防止商业风险保证防止商业风险 5. in
18、crease investment flow by providing conciliation and arbitration services to sort disputes between governments and investors.通过提供调解和仲通过提供调解和仲裁政府与投资者之间的争端的服务来增加投资裁政府与投资者之间的争端的服务来增加投资Protests Against Global Institutions反对反对全球化体系全球化体系 Anti-Globalists; They rebel against the implications of its existenc
19、e and vehemently challenge the view that it is inevitable and naturally occurring.反对全球反对全球化者化者:他们对抗存在的影响，激烈的挑战不可避免的和必然他们对抗存在的影响，激烈的挑战不可避免的和必然发生的观点发生的观点 Every time world leaders get together to discuss the world economy and international trade there are protests. Some can become very violent!每次世界每次世界
20、领导者聚在一起讨论世界经济和国际贸易都会有反对者领导者聚在一起讨论世界经济和国际贸易都会有反对者,有有的会变得很激烈的会变得很激烈International Trade Theories国际贸易理论国际贸易理论 Adam Smith and Absolute Advantage亚当亚当斯密和绝对斯密和绝对优势优势 David Ricardo and Comparative Advantage大卫大卫李嘉图李嘉图和相对优势和相对优势 Heckscher Ohlin and Factor Endowments赫克舍赫克舍奥奥林和具备的生产要素林和具备的生产要素 Country Similarity
21、 Theory国家相似理论国家相似理论 Product Life Cycle Theory产品周期理论产品周期理论Adam Smith and Absolute Advantage亚亚当当斯密和绝对优势斯密和绝对优势 Absolute advantage; The advantage that exists when a country has a monopoly on producing a specific product or is able to produce it more efficiently than all other countries. 绝对优势绝对优势:一个国家在一
22、个国家在特定商品上垄断或比其他国家生产效率更高的优势特定商品上垄断或比其他国家生产效率更高的优势David Ricardo and Comparative Advantage大卫大卫李嘉图和相对优势李嘉图和相对优势 Comparative Advantage; The theory that states that a country should sell to other countries those products it produces most effectively and efficiently, and buy from other countries those prod
23、ucts it cannot produce as effectively or efficiently. 相对优势相对优势:这个理论表明一个国家应向其他国家销售其能高效生产的商品这个理论表明一个国家应向其他国家销售其能高效生产的商品,购买其不能高效生产的商品购买其不能高效生产的商品Heckscher Ohlin and Factor Endowments赫克舍赫克舍奥林和具备的生产要素奥林和具备的生产要素 Follow along the line of Comparative Advantage, Heckscher and Ohlin suggest that some countrie
24、s have natural advantages, known as factors.依照相对优依照相对优势理论势理论,赫克舍赫克舍奥林提出国家应该有自然优势如各种要素奥林提出国家应该有自然优势如各种要素 Thus; A country will have a Comparative Advantage in products that require resources that are abundant in that country.因此因此,一个国家要在充足的自然资一个国家要在充足的自然资源生产的产品上有相对优势源生产的产品上有相对优势Country Similarity Theor
25、y国家相似理论国家相似理论 Economist, Steffen Linder, in 1960, suggested that trade between countries for manufactured goods depended on the similarities in consumer preferences, production conditions, and economic development stage. Economic and social similarity increases level of trade between countries.经济学家史
26、经济学家史蒂芬琳达蒂芬琳达1960年提出国家间商品的交换依靠相似的消费者选择年提出国家间商品的交换依靠相似的消费者选择,生产环境生产环境,经济发展阶段经济发展阶段,经济和社会的相似能提升国家间贸易的经济和社会的相似能提升国家间贸易的阶段阶段Product Life Cycle Theory产品周期理论产品周期理论 Raymond Vernon, Is very similar to The Product Life Cycle Theory, but includes the factors of global competition and trade. He says that withi
27、n the PLC there are three stages of international product growth. They are;雷蒙德雷蒙德弗农提出与产品周期理论相似的理论弗农提出与产品周期理论相似的理论,但包括但包括全球竞争和贸易的因素全球竞争和贸易的因素,他说在产品周期理论内国际产品增长有他说在产品周期理论内国际产品增长有三个阶段三个阶段 1. New Product Stage; Entrepreneurs launch a new product in their home market, where they understand the environment
28、.新产品阶段新产品阶段:企业家在国内市场推行新产品企业家在国内市场推行新产品,他们了解市场环境他们了解市场环境 2. Mature Product Stage; Demand for the product expands faster then supply as customers alter their choices and adopt new styling. As demand moves offshore so does production!成熟产品阶段成熟产品阶段:对产品的需求对产品的需求迅速增长迅速增长,然后供给满足消费者的不同选择和采用新款式然后供给满足消费者的不同选择和
29、采用新款式,产品的产品的需求和生产到达国外需求和生产到达国外 3. Standardized Product Stage; Demand for the product stabilizes. The innovative features of the product no longer exist. Production moves to the lowest cost locations as demand drops.标准化产品阶段标准化产品阶段:产品的需求稳定产品的需求稳定,产品创新的特点不再存在产品创新的特点不再存在,随着需求下降随着需求下降,生产转生产转移到低成本地区移到低成本地
30、区New ProductStageStandardizedProduct StageMature ProductStageDomesticMarketInternationalMarketTrade and Investment Patterns贸易和投资模式贸易和投资模式 The level of global trade is increasing and has been for a number of years. As countries continue to work together on global issues such as population, resource l
31、imitations, global warming, and poverty, cooperation and trade are ever more important. Trade creates healthy economies for all those involved, and as poor countries develop, and developing countries become rich, the global market place will continue to grow.全球全球贸易的增长已持续了很多年贸易的增长已持续了很多年,随着全球的国家一起解决人
32、口增长随着全球的国家一起解决人口增长,资源限制资源限制,全球变暖和贫困的问题全球变暖和贫困的问题,合作和贸易更加重要合作和贸易更加重要,贸易使参贸易使参与者产生健康的经济与者产生健康的经济,随着贫穷的国家发展随着贫穷的国家发展,发展中国家变得富有发展中国家变得富有,全球市场会继续发展全球市场会继续发展BRIC; Developing Countries To Watch!金砖四国金砖四国:受注视的发展中国家受注视的发展中国家 Brazil; 200 million巴西巴西2亿人口亿人口 Russia; 200 million俄罗斯俄罗斯2亿人口亿人口 India; 1.2 billion pe
33、ople印度印度12亿人口亿人口 China; 1.3 billion people中国中国13亿人口亿人口Developing Countries To Watch!受注视的发展中国家受注视的发展中国家Balance of Payments收支平衡收支平衡 Balance of Payments; The system of accounts that records a nations international financial transactions.收支平衡收支平衡:记录一个国家的国际金融处理的账目记录一个国家的国际金融处理的账目系统系统 Current Account; A r
34、ecord of all merchandise exports, imports, and services plus unilateral transfers of funds.现在的账目现在的账目:对所有对所有商品的进出口商品的进出口,服务和单边资金转移的记录服务和单边资金转移的记录 Capital Account; A record of direct investment, portfolio investment, and short term capital movements to and from countries.资本账目资本账目:对直接投资对直接投资,证券投资组合和国家
35、短期投资的证券投资组合和国家短期投资的进出的记录进出的记录 Reserve Account; A record of imports and exports of gold, increases or decreases in foreign exchange, and increases or decreases in liabilities to foreign central banks.储备金账目储备金账目:对黄金对黄金的进出口的进出口,外汇的增减外汇的增减,外国中央银行负债的增减的记录外国中央银行负债的增减的记录 Trade Balance; Is a reflection of t
36、he difference between total exports and total imports.贸易平衡贸易平衡:是总出口和总进口差异的反是总出口和总进口差异的反映映 Current Account Balance; Is a more complete picture of the financial flows into and from a local economy.现在账目平衡现在账目平衡:是一是一个更完整的一个区域经济财政的流量的进出的反映个更完整的一个区域经济财政的流量的进出的反映 Trade Surplus; A favourable balance of trad
37、e; occurs when the value of a countrys exports exceeds that of its imports.贸易顺差贸易顺差:有利的贸易平衡有利的贸易平衡,一国出口的贸易额超一国出口的贸易额超过进口过进口 Trade Deficit; An unfavourable balance of trade; occurs when the value of a countrys imports exceeds that of its exports.贸易逆差贸易逆差:不利的贸易平衡不利的贸易平衡,一国一国进口的贸易额超过出口进口的贸易额超过出口Balance
38、 of Payments and Foreign Exchange收支平衡和外汇收支平衡和外汇 Exchange Rate; Refers to the value of a currency in relation to the values of other currencies.汇率汇率:本国货本国货币价值与其他货币价值的关系币价值与其他货币价值的关系 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP); The value of a countries currency and the cost of living in that country, compared to th
39、e value of another currency in another country and the cost of living in that country.购买力同等购买力同等:一国货币的价值与生活成本与另一国相比一国货币的价值与生活成本与另一国相比较较Factors Affecting The Exchange Rate影响影响汇率的因素汇率的因素 Floating Exchange Rate; The value of currency is set by the laws of supply and demand for currency on the internati
40、onal exchange markets.变动的汇率在国际变动的汇率在国际交换市场上货币的价值由对货币的需求决定交换市场上货币的价值由对货币的需求决定 Currency values change daily and are effected by many factors such as perceived economic health or a countrys economy in comparison to that of other countries, and international events.货币价值每日一变货币价值每日一变,受经济安全感知或本国经济与它国比较和国际事
41、件因素的受经济安全感知或本国经济与它国比较和国际事件因素的影响影响Protectionism贸易保护主义贸易保护主义 Protectionism; The use of government regulations to limit the import of goods and services.贸易保护主义贸易保护主义政府条例的使用限制商品和服务的进口政府条例的使用限制商品和服务的进口 Trade Barriers; Are barriers put in place by governments to restrict or prevent international trade.贸易壁
42、垒贸易壁垒:政府设置壁垒限制或阻止国际贸易政府设置壁垒限制或阻止国际贸易Trade Barriers贸易壁垒贸易壁垒 Tariff; A tax imposed on imports.关税强加到进口上的税关税强加到进口上的税 Quota; Is a specific unit or dollar limit applied to a particular type of good.限额限额:对特定商品限制交易量和交易额对特定商品限制交易量和交易额 Voluntary Export Restrictions; (VER) or Orderly Market Agreements; (OMA);
43、are agreements between importing and exporting countries for a restriction on the volume of exports.自愿出口限制或有序市场协议自愿出口限制或有序市场协议:是进口和出口国对大量出口限制是进口和出口国对大量出口限制的协议的协议 Boycott; Is an absolute restriction against the purchase and importation of certain goods from other countries.联合抵制联合抵制:是对从其它是对从其它国家进口特国家进
44、口特定商品定商品的的绝对的限绝对的限制制 Embargo; Is a refusal to sell to a specific country.禁止禁止或限制贸或限制贸易易:拒绝和特定国家贸易拒绝和特定国家贸易 Monetary Barrier; Restrictions on money exchange.货币壁垒货币壁垒:对货币兑换的限制对货币兑换的限制 Standard; Standards on product safety and quality and business rules.标准标准:产品安全和质量的标准和商业准则产品安全和质量的标准和商业准则 Antidumping P
45、enalties; Limits on imports based on predatory pricing, to prevent dumping. 反倾销处罚反倾销处罚:对对掠夺性定价商品的限制掠夺性定价商品的限制,目的是防止倾销目的是防止倾销Protection Logic and Illogic保护主义的逻辑性和非逻辑性保护主义的逻辑性和非逻辑性 There are countless reasons why governments try to restrict trade by the use of protectionist measures. Some of these arg
46、uments are based on the following;有有无数的原因来说明为什么政府要使用贸易保护主义者的方法来限无数的原因来说明为什么政府要使用贸易保护主义者的方法来限制贸易以下的制贸易以下的,内容是一部分论证内容是一部分论证: 1. Protection of an infant industry.对早期工业的保护对早期工业的保护 2. Protection of the home market.对国内市场的保护对国内市场的保护 3. The need to keep money at home.把钱留在国内把钱留在国内 4. Encouragement of capital
47、 accumulation.资本积累的资本积累的激激励励 5. Maintenance of the standard of living and real wages.生活标准的维持和工资生活标准的维持和工资 6. Conservation of natural resources.自然资源的保护自然资源的保护 7. Industrialization of a low wage nation.低劳动成本低劳动成本国家的工业化国家的工业化 8. Maintenance of employment and reduction of unemployment.就业率的维持和失业率的减少就业率的维
48、持和失业率的减少 9. National defence.国家安全国家安全 10. Increase of business size.商业规模的扩大商业规模的扩大 11. Retaliation and bargaining.报复和讨价还价报复和讨价还价 Although there may be cases when domestic markets need protection, when protective measures become long term it contributes to industrial inefficiency while detracting fro
49、m a nations realistic adjustment to the world situation.尽管有些情况下国内市场需要保护尽管有些情况下国内市场需要保护,但是当保护方法长期使用时但是当保护方法长期使用时,会会导导致工业效率低下致工业效率低下,因此需要调整国家现实的情况来适应世界因此需要调整国家现实的情况来适应世界形式形式 Rarely does protectionism lead to renewed growth in declining industries. And the jobs that are saved are at a very high cost pe
50、r job!在衰退的工业中使用贸在衰退的工业中使用贸易保护主义不能带来新一轮的增长易保护主义不能带来新一轮的增长,保留的工作也会花费高成本保留的工作也会花费高成本EXAMPLE!案例案例 A study of 21 protected industries in the USA concluded;对对美国美国21个受保护的的行业的研究得出结论个受保护的的行业的研究得出结论 - Research showed within these industries consumers paid $70 billion in higher prices for these goods per year,
