1、Chapter 9Chapter 9Fundamental AnalysisFundamental Analysis The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence.Do you know why traders carry a fundamenta
2、l analysis?SUPPLY AND DEMANDnAnything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices,and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices.Price0Price and SupplyssEEQDPrice 0Price and DemandDDSEEQAs price goes up,consumption drops,and vice versa.MARKET REPORTS The U.S.Department of Agricultu
3、re(USDA)provides a number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily,weekly,and monthly price movements.SEASONALITY If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to-month basis,we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top,whereas duri
4、ng other months price tends to bottom.Monthly seasonal price tendency for cornWeekly Corn Prices charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal.Seasonal Tendencies in Futures
5、PricesCYCLIC PRICE CHANGES The cyclic method of analysis and forecasting has its roots in the work of Edward R.Dewey,founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.Upside ReversalDown side ReversalTiming Signals,Upside and Downside Reversals Low-High Close High-Low CloseTiming Signals “W”BOTTOM“M
6、”TOPTiming Signals on Closing Basis ChartsSECULAR TRENDS 长期趋势 Less predictable than seasonal and cycles but significant nevertheless as an influence on prices are price trends resulting from long-term changes in supply and demand.The government is an ever-present but often fickle influence on commod
7、ity prices.Government Price Support ProgramsPolitical Influences Political decisions anywhere in the world may affect commodity prices significantly.Monthly Futures Copper Prices OTHER FORCES AND FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES News of war can lead to hoarding as well as to a greater demand for r
8、aw materials for defense and stockpiling.When the economy is healthy,un employment is low,the experts are predicting prosperous times ahead,and business is expanding,demand tends to be high for commodities.General Business Conditions The Consumer Price Index(CPI),Producer Price Index(PPI),the Farm P
9、rice Index(FPI),the Dow Jones Averages,the Futures Price Indexes,the Reuters Spot Index.PRICE ANALYSISThe Consumer Price Index(CPI)If these costs are rising,at the consumer level,it might indicate a rise in the inflation rate.The CPI is also called the cost-of-living index.nWhat is the seasonal pric
10、e pattern?nWhat is the long-term price trend?nWhat about government price supports?nExpert subsidies?nWhat are the figures on current production and carryover stocks?PRICE ANALYSISn Even the most sophisticated of systems will not be perfect.nThere will always be unexpected variables that the analysis failed to consider.nI have always maintained that the markets work perfectly as they respond to the multiplicity of forces that act upon them.Conclusion:
