1、可口可乐公司可口可乐公司 财务报表分析财务报表分析 王冠男王冠男 -The Framework公司简介(Introduction)战略分析(Strategy Analysis)账目分析(Account Analysis)信用分析(Credit Analysis)财务分析(Financial Analysis)前景分析(Prospective Analysis)-Introduction可口可乐公司介绍可口可乐的诞生与发展可口可乐的市场现况根据一项20世纪的调查，全世界最流行的三个词分别是：上帝、她、可口可乐-Coca-Colas Products-销售收入销售收入 (Sales)-第四回合第四
2、回合第三回合第三回合第二回合第二回合第一回合第一回合 股市表现旗鼓相当股市表现旗鼓相当 各选择麦当劳与肯德基作为各选择麦当劳与肯德基作为战略合战略合 作作伙伴伙伴 百百事与可口可乐的广告大战事与可口可乐的广告大战 百事根本不是可口可乐的对手百事根本不是可口可乐的对手 With Its Competitor-PepsiCo-市场份额市场份额 (Market Share)-软饮料制造业软饮料制造业(Soft Drink Industry)酒精含量低于0.5(质量比)的天然的或人工配制的饮料，又称清凉饮料、无醇饮料溶解香精、香料、色素等溶剂或乳酸饮料生产过程的副产物-波特五力模型波特五力模型Port
3、ers Five Forces Model-行业分析行业分析 (Industrial Analysis)行业利润率行业利润率潜在竞争者进入的能力潜在竞争者进入的能力(Threat of new entrants)行业内竞争者现在行业内竞争者现在的竞争能力的竞争能力(Rivalry among existing firms)替代品的替代能力替代品的替代能力(Threat of substitute products)供应商的议价能力供应商的议价能力(Bargaining power of suppliers)购买者的议价能力购买者的议价能力(Bargaining power of buyers)
4、-态势分析法态势分析法 SWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis-StrengthsWeaknessesThreatsOpportunities汇汇率风率风险险水质和水水质和水量量消费者喜好正在改消费者喜好正在改变变行业领先地位行业领先地位健全的销售网络健全的销售网络造成造成肥胖不利肥胖不利健康健康产产品召回事品召回事件件(12/2009)积极进军发展中的市场积极进军发展中的市场收购北美收购北美CCE着重销量和价格的结合着重销量和价格的结合-账目分析账目分析 -Beneish ModelRatioMeaning201020092008DSRIIndicate revenue inf
5、lation.1.04021.25360.8415GMIAssess the gross margin sustainability.1.00571.00270.9937AQIImply capitalization of cost1.34990.87490.8905SGISuggest the companys growth character.1.13320.97011.1070DEPIShow the possibility of change of depreciation rate.1.21441.00410.9835SGAIHint the abnormal deferred co
6、st.1.05680.99231.0007LVGIEvaluate the change of risk.1.15680.99151.0204TATAPositively related to the likelihood of manipulation.-0.0237-0.2039-0.0354-M-Score201020092008M-Score-2.3271-3.2719-2.7523Normsdist(M)1.00%0.05%0.30%M=-4.840+0.920 x DSRI+0.528 x GMI+0.404 x AQI+0.892 x SGI+0.115 x DEPI-0.172
7、 x SAI-0.327 x LVGI+4.679 x TATA-信用分析信用分析 -Altman Z-score ModelCoefficientRatios(KO)Score(KO)Ratios(PEP)Score(PEP)(X1)NWC/assets1.20.0420.0510.0250.030(X2)Retained earnings/Total assets1.40.2750.3850.2430.340(X3)EBIT/Total assets3.30.1160.3820.1430.473(X4)MV of equity/BV of total liability0.63.5972.
8、1582.1801.308(X5)Sales/Total assets10.4820.4820.8490.849Z-Score3.4583.000Z=1.2(X1)+1.4(X2)+3.3(X3)+0.6(X4)+1.0(X5)-财务分析的两个工具财务分析的两个工具(Financial Analysis)比率分析比率分析(Ratio Analysis)现金流分析现金流分析(Cash Flow Analysis)主要分主要分析损益表析损益表(income statement)与资产负债表与资产负债表(Balance Sheet)主主要分析现金流量表要分析现金流量表(Cash Flow State
9、ment)净利润率净利润率ROE资产资产周转率周转率杠杆效应杠杆效应可持续可持续增长率增长率-分解分解ROE ROE decompositionKOKOKOPEPPEPPEP Year201020092008201020092008Net Profit Margin(ROS)(%)33.6322.0218.1810.9313.7511.89*Asset turnover0.580.690.761.071.141.22=Return on assets(ROA)(%)19.4315.3013.8611.7015.6814.56*Financial leverage2.181.971.982.85
10、2.632.41=Return on equity(%)42.3330.1527.5133.3641.2535.15-ROE 第一个驱动因素净利润率(Net Profit Margin)Profitability RatiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Gross profit margin(%)63.86 64.22 64.39 54.74 53.51 52.95 EBITDA margin(%)28.17 30.55 30.28 20.92 22.39 19.60 NOPAT margin(%)24.06 26.56 26.44 1
11、6.90 18.61 16.03 Net profit margin(%)33.63 22.02 18.18 10.93 13.75 11.89-ROE 第二个驱动因素资产周转率(Asset Turnover)Assets Management RatiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Operating WC/Sales0.12 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 Net non-current assets/Sales0.42 0.31 0.26 0.33 0.29 0.27 Operating WC turnover8
12、.36 8.00 25.15 82.27 86.29 92.22 Net non-current assets turnover2.89 3.47 3.80 3.65 3.55 3.78 Trade Receivables turnover8.58 9.05 9.97 10.57 9.29 9.54 Days receivables42.55 40.33 36.70 34.45 39.18 38.17 Inventories turnover5.07 4.88 5.16 8.74 7.82 8.46 Days inventories71.95 74.74 70.91 41.64 46.54 4
13、3.03 Trade payables turnover1.67 1.75 1.73 2.83 2.46 2.59 Days payables218.01 208.56 211.71 128.73 147.80 140.37 Asset turnover0.580.690.761.071.141.22-ROE 第三个驱动因素杠杆效应(Financial Leverage)Liquidity ratiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Current ratio1.17 1.28 0.94 1.11 1.44 1.23 Quick ratio
14、0.85 0.95 0.62 0.80 1.00 0.79 Cash ratio0.61 0.67 0.38 0.40 0.47 0.26 Operating cash flow ratio0.52 0.60 0.58 0.53 0.78 0.80 Financial leverage2.181.971.982.852.632.41-ROE 第三个驱动因素杠杆效应(Financial Leverage)Debt and coverage ratiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Liabilities-to-equity1.330.920
15、.942.171.281.97Debt-to-equity(%)74.7746.7944.65115.9345.0967.96Net debt-to-equity(%)38.5710.4420.7886.2721.3849.15Debt-to-capital(%)42.7831.8730.8753.6931.0840.46Net debt-to-net capital(%)23.708.7816.5435.9216.3124.53Interest coverage(earning based)20.3625.9717.9810.1021.2722.34Interest coverage(cas
16、h flow based)17.2629.8122.0112.4523.4127.98-可持续增长率(Sustainable Growth Rate)Sustainable growth rateKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008ROE(%)42.3330.1527.5133.3641.2535.15Dividend payout ratio(%)34.4055.6160.6347.9146.5550.35Sustainable growth rate(%)27.7713.3810.8317.3822.0517.45-现金流分析(Cash F
17、low Analysis)Cash flow analysisKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Cash From Operations953281867571844867966999Cash From Investing Activities-4405-4149-2363-7668-2401-2667Cash from Financing Activities-3631-1717-46001220-2516-3178Net Changes in Cash14962320608200018791154Opening Cash&Cash Equ
18、ivalents70214701409339432064910Total Cash Flow851770214701594339432064-Common size Income Statement200820092010 averageRevenuesales100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%Cost&Expensecost of sales35.61%35.78%36.14%35.84%general&administration expense34.85%34.42%36.42%35.23%Research&Development0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0
19、0%Depreciation3.11%3.24%3.38%3.24%Operating Income26.44%26.56%24.06%25.69%InterestInterest expense1.37%1.15%2.09%1.53%Foreign Exchange Losses(Gains)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%Net Non-Operating Losses(Gains)1.78%-3.45%-18.59%-6.75%Income before tax23.29%28.87%40.56%30.90%Income tax5.11%6.58%6.79%6.16%Net in
20、come18.18%22.28%33.77%24.74%common share7.24%7.43%6.53%7.07%Earnings per share0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%Dividends paid11.02%12.26%11.58%11.62%Retained earnings7.16%10.02%22.18%13.12%-Common Size Balance Sheet200820092010 Averagecash&cash equivalents15.59%29.73%32.28%25.87%account receivable9.67%12.13%12.6
21、1%11.47%inventories6.85%7.60%7.55%7.33%total current assets38.12%56.63%61.45%52.07%fixed assetsnet fixed assets25.78%30.85%41.93%32.86%Good will12.61%13.63%33.22%19.82%intangible assets22.82%23.35%27.31%24.49%other assets61.21%67.83%102.46%77.17%total long-term assets88.73%100.42%146.19%111.78%total
22、 assets126.84%157.05%207.64%163.85%accounts payable19.42%21.48%25.23%22.04%current debt20.45%21.94%26.70%23.03%total current liabilities40.66%44.28%52.70%45.88%long-term debt8.71%16.32%39.98%21.67%other long-term liabilities12.19%14.67%25.78%17.55%total long-term liabilities20.90%30.99%65.76%39.22%t
23、otal liabilities61.56%75.27%118.47%85.10%common stock&additional paid in capital27.69%30.39%31.14%29.74%retained earnings36.39%49.64%57.14%47.72%total shareholders equity65.29%81.79%89.17%78.75%total liabilities&shareholders equity126.84%157.05%207.64%163.85%-共同比共同比财务报表财务报表分析分析对CCE 的兼并 为$12.3b($3.4b
24、 in equity&$8.8b in debt)可口可乐通过增加留存收益来减小公司杠杆，偿还收购所产生的长期债务收购所产生的溢价被记录在商誉中导致公司长期资产的增长非经营收入=兼并所带来的债权收入+公司将挪威和瑞典的包装生产基地销售给CCE所得收入($0.8b)可口可乐公司通过增长长期债务的方式募集资金收购-公司经营财务预测假设AssumptionsClick to add Title每年的年销售额增长率保持过去5年的均值公司会调整其资本结构到收购前水平假设报表中的数据都与年销售额有较稳定的关系公司在预测年限内稳定持续经营预测的数据均根据与销售额比值的平均水平-Forecasted Inco
25、me StatementForecasted Income Statement201120122013Revenuesales38704.03542655.03947009.371Cost&Expensecost of sales13872.5815288.72816849.439G&A Expense13634.02415025.81916559.692Research&Development000Depreciation1255.85961384.06091525.3492Operating Income9941.570310956.43112074.89InterestInterest
26、expense593.9611654.59412721.41672FX Losses(Gains)000Net Non-Operating Losses(Gains)-2613.408-2880.191-3174.208Income before tax11961.01713182.02814527.682Income tax2384.1762627.55862895.7863Net income9576.841410554.46911631.896common share2734.50163013.64633321.2868EPS4.16353464.58855855.05697Divide
27、nds paid4498.4294957.63985463.728-Forecasted Results-Forecasted Balance SheetForecasted Balance Sheet201120122013cash&cash equivalents10011.09111033.04812159.329account receivable4439.85924893.0915392.5899inventories2836.76423126.34813445.4935total current assets20151.44622208.55624475.66fixed asset
28、snet fixed assets12716.73614014.89215445.567Good will7670.95128454.02099317.0284intangible assets9479.956610447.69411514.221other assets29867.64432916.60736276.816total long-term assets43263.547679.94552547.233total assets63414.94669888.50177022.893accounts payable8531.84039402.791810362.652current
29、debt8912.96069822.817810825.555total current liabilities17756.77219569.42721567.123long-term debt8387.38219243.586910187.195other long-term liabilities6791.65487484.96388249.0475total long-term liabilities15179.03716728.55118436.243total liabilities32935.80836297.97840003.365common stock&additional
30、paid in capital11510.85312685.9113980.919retained earnings18470.52920356.04722434.042total shareholders equity30479.13733590.52337019.527total liabilities&shareholders equity63414.94669888.50177022.893-Forecasted Results-敏感性分析(Sensitivity Analysis)201120122013Difference in Revenue1404.76 3090.47 509
31、9.84 Difference in Net Income347.59 764.70 1261.89 Difference in Assets2301.64 5063.61 8355.88 Difference in Liabilities1195.40 2629.89 4339.79 Difference in Equity1106.24 2433.72 4016.09 Difference in Free Cash Flow382.35 841.17 1388.08 当销售增长率分别为当销售增长率分别为8%和和12%的情况下各项的差值的情况下各项的差值-正常销售增长率前提下，3年后可口可乐
32、股权价值最少会增加18%敏感性分析与预测结果(Sensitivity Analysis)在销售增长率不同情况下，估计项中各项数据最大差额小于对应项目初始值的5%在正常销售增长率前提下，3年后可口可乐总资产会在目前资产价值基础上增长5%正常销售增长率前提下，3年后可口可乐年销售额会增加33%-通过财务报表和公司战略的分析，可口可乐能在行通过财务报表和公司战略的分析，可口可乐能在行业继续保持其行业地位和竞争力业继续保持其行业地位和竞争力总结总结 (Conclusion)公司经营战略的调整有助于公司的长期发展公司经营战略的调整有助于公司的长期发展可口可乐公司的财务政策长期以来都很稳定可口可乐公司的财务政策长期以来都很稳定财务状况的短期浮动来自投资活动所产生的资金变动财务状况的短期浮动来自投资活动所产生的资金变动通过市场状况的估计，可口可乐公司未来期间内通过市场状况的估计，可口可乐公司未来期间内股价可能会有较大波动，但长期发展趋势良好股价可能会有较大波动，但长期发展趋势良好-Q&A-
