1、1Prof.Dr.h.c.Roland BergerHonorary Chairman,ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTSThe world economy and the successof the German economic modelTsinghua Seminar,March 29,20191 P r o f.D r.h.c.R o l a n d B e r g e r H2110329_Tsinghua_final_02.pptxWorld economic outlook Stabilization after crisis and reco
2、veryA2 1 1 0 3 2 9 _ T s i n g h u a _ f i n a l _ 0 2.p p t x35.0 4.4-0.62.8-4.10.52.23.6-4.71.8 1.7 1.02.8 3.0-2.60.03.7 4.5-7.95.2World2019China9.6 9.2 10.3 9.62019 2019USA2019 2019EU2019 2019Germany2019 2019Russia2019 201920191.1After strong bounce back in 2019,global GDPgrowth in2019 is slightl
3、y decliningAnnual GDP growth%Source:IMF BRIC countries remain the growth drivers of the world economy 2019:Brazil+4.5%,Russia+4.5%,India+8.4%,China+9.6%3 5.0 4.4-0.6 2.8-4.1 0.5 2.2 3.6-431.631.531.713.421.213.412.222.2At the end of 2019exportvalues areagain above thepre-crisislevelof December 2019W
4、orld EU27 Germany USA Japan China India Russia BrazilSource:WTO Freetrade was an important driver in overcoming the crisis1.2Worldwide trade recovered strongly over the past yearMerchandise exports Average quarterly growth,2019 yoy,%35.14 3 1.6 3 1.5 3 1.7 1 3.4 2 1.2 1 3.4 1 2.2 259.15.64.85.16.95.
5、17.59.29.39.89.79.49.28.68.47.39.88.32019p 2019p201920092019201920195.54.54.63.8Source:EIU Flexibility of German labor market paid offStrongest challenges for PIIGS countries like Spain,Ireland and Greece20099.320199.77.57.36.66.55.16.35.16.15.06.54.86.48.47.56.86.2USAGermanyJapanChinaRussiaEU-279.2
6、9.89.49.12019p 2019p9.2 8.61.3Especially in US and EU,labor markets were significantlyaffected by the crisis,slow recovery is predictedUnemployment rate%USAGermanyEU-27Japan5.84.04.64.17.37.25 9.1 5.6 5.1 6.9 5.1 7.5 9.2 9.8 9.4 8.61601401201008060Source:Bloomberg Mid-term prospects depend on the re
7、covery of JapanDAXShanghai CompositeDow JonesEuroStoxxNikkei2009201920191.4Global stock markets have gone up Development on the current edge due to JapanInternational stock markets January 1,2009=1001806 1 6 0 S o u r c e:B l o o mb e r g D A X 2 0 0 9 2 07The positive developmentis especially stron
8、g inNorthAmerica.Increase ofthe Ifo Economic ClimateIndex from Q4 2019 to Q12019 index points:NorthAmerica:+21.8 Asia:+9.7 WesternEurope:+8.0Source:Ifo Institute Peoples mood precedes real economic developmentLowest valueQ1 200950.7Highest valueQ3 201991.4110.4114.9107.7Q12019 Q12019 Q12019 Q12009 Q
9、1201999.5Q12019106.81.5The current global business climate is on its highest levelsince the end of 2019,but not yet on pre-crisis levelIfo World Economic Climate index value,2019=1007 T h e p o s i t i v e d e v e l o p me n t I n d e x81234567Financial systemGovernment debtMacroeconomic imbalancesG
10、lobal monetary expansionEuro crisisCurrency warsExternal shocks:MENAand Japan2But old and new risks endanger the recovery 7 disturbing factors for the world economy8 1 F i n a n c i a l s y s t e m29Crisis related bank writedowns USD bn German bank exposure*to.EUR bn2.1.1Confidence in the financial
11、sector has not been fullyrestored Euro crisis may lead to new writedowns9451,4002,2002,700 2,800Apr08 Oct08Jan09Apr09 Oct09 Apr10 Oct10 thereofreportedSource:EIU IWF,Bloomberg,Bundesbank(2019),BIS1,650Spain Ireland Portugal Greece*as of December 20192,300 2,200 Banks always have to fight for the tru
12、st of their customersStructural problems in Spain,Ireland,US+federal statebanks in Germany216.6=EUR 512,7bn186.444.365.49 C r i s i s r e l a t e d b a n k w r i t e d o w n10Increasein core capital requirementsNew authorities Verythin line between stabilising financial marketsand overregulationSust
13、ainable solution requires joint effortsof politics and financial industryESMA:European Securities andMarketsAuthorityEBA:European BankingAuthorityEIOPA:European Insurance andOccupational Pensions AuthoritybeforeBaselIII4.5CoreTier1 capitalSource:BIS7%2.5BaselIII1)Conversationbuffer0-2,5%Countercycli
14、calbufferrangeCoreTier1 capital1)Transition period 5 upto10 years2%2.02.1.2Basel III and new European financial supervision authoritiesare steps in the right direction1 0 I n c r e a s e i n c o r e c a p i t a l r e q u11012080402001602019p2019200920192019National debt%of GDP240Source:EIU High nati
15、onal debt puts the brake on growth for debtor countries3.73.03.41.730 30-60 60-90 90National debt%of GDPChange in GDPDepending on national debt%2.2Government debt:Anew dimension to the crisis And a threat to growthJAPANUSAEU 27DeutschlandBrazilIndiaChinaRussia1 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 2 0 1 9 p 2 0 1 9 2 0
16、0 9 2 0 1 9 2 0 1 912-7502500-250-500-636 USA-1,0001990 1992 1994 2019 2019 2000 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019Source:IMF,EIU Alesson learned from the crisis but not yet fully implemented is thatcountrieswith strong deficits have to solve their structural problems2.3The current trade structure causes
17、 macroeconomicimbalance Aglobal problemCurrentaccount deficits and surpluses USD bn500368 China235192116-54-120BRICJapanGermanyEU-27PIIGS1 2-7 5 02 5 0-6 3 6 U S A-1,0 0 0 2.31318016014012010080Source:MorganStanley Massive monetaryexpansion could lead to new bubbles/inflation1)Growthin volumeof mone
18、y(M1)in relation tonominaldomesticproduct 2)USA,Eurozone,Japan,UK,CanadaBRICSTATESG5 STATES2)1988201920002019June2019=1002.4.1Global monetary expansion Western central banks in-creased the circulating cash by huge amounts after the crisisSurplus liquidity%of GDP 1)2001 3 1 8 0 S o u r c e:Mo r g a n
19、 S t a n l e y 1)G r14Arise in the inflation rate to4 percent is absolutelypossible in the next two tothree yearsThomasMayer,GDPPotentialoutputOutputgap2.6002.5002.4002.3002.2002.1000-2-42ChiefEconomist of Deutsche Bank4201920192019Source:Kiel Economics Germanysboom requires new economic policy agen
20、da2.4.2Example Germany:Output gap may boost inflation rateGDP,Potential output EUR m,Output gap%1 4 A r i s e i n t h e i n f l a t i o n r a t e151)Real(adjusted forinflation)Source:Bloomberg Prices for raw materials are going up also outside the crisis regionHigher prices pose risks for sustainabl
21、e economic growth worldwide2122222427283040454881114116CottonNickel AluminumCocoaCopperGoldSugarSweetcrudeoilSoyWheatBrentcrudeoilCornSilverCoffee2.4.3The prices for key raw materials have gone up considerablyover the past 12 monthsPrice increase for certain raw materials since March 1,20191)%1411 5
22、 1)R e a l (a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o162.5.1Euro crisis:Credit spreads reached new heights EUR depreciates against CHF and CNY01/0802/0902/1002/1185807570659590Exchangerate EUR/*110105100CNYCHF03/114206Spreadsabove German GB-10y%10Griechenland8IrlandPortugalSpanienItalien02/0802/0902/100
23、3/11Quelle:Bloomberg ThomsonFinancial*01.01.2019=100 Yields on Portugals 10-year bonds pushed to a new record last Friday1 6 2.5.1 0 1/0 8 0 2/0 9 0 2/1 0 0 2/1 1 8 5 917European Leaders agreed to establish a new permanentbailout fund that will come into effect in 2019Results of the European Council
24、,March 24/25(1/3)Stability Mechanism will replace effectivelendingcapacityof EUR 500bn totalsubscribedcapital of EUR 700bn(in orderto securetriple-Arating)EUR80bnpaid-in capital(will be paidfrom 2019overfive years)EUR620bncommittedcallable capitalandguarantees countrieswill contributecapitalon the b
25、asis of theECB paid-incapital key will provideloansunderstrict conditionsto eurozonestates will cooperateclosely with theIMF As of 2019 the ESM transformsthe EU officially into a transfer union2.5.21 7 E u r o p e a n L e a d e r s a g r e e d t o e18Euro Plus Pact as watered-down version of an econ
26、omicgovernment fostering competitiveness and employmentResults of the European Council,March 24/25(2/3)Plus Pact partial mainobjectives:fostercompetitivenessandemployment contributefurtherto thesustainabilityof public finances countrieswill agreeto commontargetseach year targetsmust be implementedth
27、roughstructuralreforms at thenationallevel progresswill be monitored in additionto euro zonecountries,Poland,Bulgaria,Denmarkand Romaniawantto be part of thepact This pact is little more than a vague promiseMerkels original pact for the euro was diluted beyond recognition2.5.31 8 E u r o P l u s P a
28、 c t a s w a t e r e d-19Stricter debt rules should ensure the stability of the euroResults of the European Council,March 24/25(3/3)rules countrieshaveexpendituretargets fiscal policies for2019shouldbringdeficits back below3%of GDPthe health of the banking highlevel memberstateswill preparestrategie
29、sfor therestructuringof vulnerableinstitutions Effectiveness of these vague rules is more than doubtful2.5.41 9 S t r i c t e r d e b t r u l e s s h o u l d e20There is clearly the ideabeginning to circulate thatcurrencies can be used as apolitical weapon.Any suchapproachwould have anegative and ve
30、ry damaginglonger-run impact.DominiqueStrauss-KahnManagingDirectorIMFOctober2019 Inherent dangers for global free tradeand free movement of capital deglobalization is becoming a real possibility with all of the ramifications!-28.2-15.5-11.6-10.4-10.1-9.0-4.0 CNY-4.5CHFEURJPYBRLGBPRUBINRSource:Bloomb
31、erg,as of Mar18,20192.6Currency war(IMF)and devaluation race are impendingthreats and tools for protectionismFall in the value of the USD since June 1,2019%2 0 T h e r e i s c l e a r l y t h e i d e a Ma21 Oil price worldwide trade migration inflation/stagflation?World GDP growth stock exchanges an
32、d capital markets?Tunisia,Egypt,Libya Japan:Earthquake,tsunami,Fukushima 2.7External shocks:Revolutions in MENAand catastrophes inJapan Effects to the world economy?2 1 O i l p r i c e w o r l d w i d e t r a d22T1T2T3T4T5DemographyGlobalization/riseof emergingmarketsScarcity of resourcesClimate cha
33、ngeTechnologyand innovationMEGATRENDS3Aworld economic outlook needs a long-term perspective:Megatrends shape the future of our world2 2 T 1 D e mo g r a p h y 3728,501 434623Source:United Nations World Population Prospects Database Challenges for labor market,welfare systemsand economic structures0E
34、UROPE5040383020104702000 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050MedianageyearsPopulation000740,000730,000720,000710,000700,000690,000680,000670,00047664,183355,265,895403805,400,0005,200,0005,000,0004,800,0004,600,0004,400,0004,200,0004,000,0003,800,0002000 2019 2020 2030 2040 20500ASIA45403530 2625201510532293,70
35、4,838403.1T1 Strong population growth is followed by aging and adecrease in population Especially in developed countriesDemographic evolution7 2 8,5 0 1 4 3 4 6 2 3 S o u r c e:U n i24GDP 2000-2030 2000=100Shareof global GDP%In 2030,China will be by far the biggest economic power!3862425843574555505
36、0554560401970 1980 1990 2000 2019 2020 2030EmergingcountriesDevelopedcountries1)1)USA;Canada,Japan,Western Europe,New Zealand,Australia2000Source:EIU201920202030CHINA x 8.1INDIA x 7.5RUSSIA x 3.1BRAZIL x 3.1USA x 2.0GERMANY x 1.5JAPAN x 1.33.2T2 Over a span of 30 years,Chinas economic power willhave
37、 grown by a factor of 82 4 G D P 2 0 0 0-2 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 =1 0 0 S h25Global reservesof waterGlobal reservesof fresh water97.5%99.7%SeawaterSource:United Nations Only 0.0075%of global reserves of water are accessible for humans2.5%Fresh water0.3%accessible3.3T3 Scarcity of resources Water2 5 G l o b
38、a l r e s e r v e s o f w a t e r G l o b a263.4.1T4 Climate change With fatal effects on our environmentSource:IPCC,UNSW Climate Change Research Centre Climate change is an issue that requires a fast and sustainable globalsolution by all stakeholders in business and politics1)1 part of CO2 per 1 m
39、parts of air2)Against 1800 to19003)InSeptember(minimum)CO2concentrationin the atmosphereConcentrationppm1)250350325300275375500 1000 1500 Today385TemperatureincreaseDegreeCelsius2)0.85500 1000 1500 Today-0.40.60.40.2-0-0.20.8Area ofArcticSea icesqmm3)19001950Today4876595.1Increase ofsea levelcm19701
40、990Today-420-246.02 6 3.4.1 S o u r c e:I P C C,U N S W C l i m2714%8%7%Number of employees 000Environmental technology%of GDPSource:DMU,Zukunftsinstitut,Siemens Energy Environmental technologies are worldwide growing futuremarketsAutomotive20192020766698454170500 RenewableenergiesChemicals380201920
41、192020+6%pts.+1%pt.2019 2019449 433250 308745 7343.4.2T4 To fight against climate change is a great opportunity forenvironmental technology Example Germany2 7 1 4%8%7%N u mb e r o f e mp l o y e e s 67.756.728Source:Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,HWWA,Times Tenbeing a major driver for innovation
42、s and new business modelsCOMMUNICATION COSTS3)IT COSTS4)1)Average tariff GATT/WTO3)Cost of a 3-minute telephone call from New York to London2)Avg.transport costs for 1t ocean freight ()and air freight(4)Cost of 1 gigabyte of RAMTRADING COSTS1)100.075.062.557.537.525.016.09.519474951566267791993LOGIS
43、TICS COSTS2)100.0 105.044.145.035.545.029.540.014.735.011.848.316.219304050607080902019100.077.121.818.812.92.01.40.119304050607080902019100.00.80.060.0081977869820193.5T5 Technology has been and will continue to be the globalengine of productivity,growth,employment and prosperityIndicators for the
44、technological progress6 7.7 5 6.7 2 8S o u r c e:R o l a n d B e r g29110329_Tsinghua_final_02.pptxThe German economic model From sick man to championB2 9 1 1 0 3 2 9 _ T s i n g h u a _ f i n a l _ 0 2.p p t3099.9III0.7II2.2I0.6IV0.3III0.70.5I-3.494.7IV-2.2III-0.5II-0.7I1.4-2-498962II1021000IV0.41.
45、1Germany has caught up strongly The+3.6%growth in2019 is the strongest seen since reunificationGDP growth in Germany%vs.previous quarter,GDP Q4 2019=100Source:Federal Statistical Office (2019)GermanGDP will reach pre-crisis level before the end of 2019!2019101.420092019Quarter-on-quarter changeCalen
46、dar,season and price-adjusted GDP3 0 9 9.9 I I I 0.7 I I 2.2 I 0.6 I V 0.3 I I I 0311.2Germanys competitiveness is excellentTop10 countries by competitiveness,2019Source:WEF Economic reformsand state intervention during the crisis were effectiveand companies,unions and workers alike made a responsib
47、le contributionRANK1 Switzerland2 Sweden3 Singapore4 USA5 Germany6 Japan7 FinlandCHANGEON 2009+2-2+2+2-1RANK8 Netherlands9 Denmark10 Canada12 UnitedKingdom27 China51 India58 BrazilCHANGEON 2009+2-4-1+1+2+2-23 1 1.2 S o u r c e:WE F R A N K C H A N G E321.3Business climate in Germany is on all-time h
48、igh,consumerconfidence is on the ascent,but below pre-crisis levelSource:Ifo Institute ,GfK Strongsignals for trust in the futuredevelopment102.083.0LowestvalueMar2009valueFeb2019103.582.3107.9Jan2019Jan2019Jan2019Jan2009Jan2019Jan201995.9111.2Highest5.54.04.58.6LowestvalueSep2019HighestvalueNov2019
49、2.29.11.53.4110.3Feb20195.8Jan2019 Jan2019 Jan2019Jan2009Jan2019Jan2019Ifo Business Climate,Germanyindex value,2000=100Consumer Confidence Index,Germanyindex value3 2 1.3 S o u r c e:I f o I n s t i t u t e ,33393521161.4Even the German stock market is on the up Stronger than the markets of other na
50、tionsInternational stock markets,increase since January 20091)%54NikkeiEuroStoxx Dow Jones ShanghaiDAXComposite1)As of March 18,2019Source:Bloomberg Although we have not yet reached the highs of the past!3 3 3 9 3 5 2 1 1.4 N i k k e i E u r o S t o x x D o1234567342The German economic model:Seven p
