1、Chapter ThreeResearch Design 研究设计教学目的定义研究设计，对各种研究设计进行分类，并且解释探索性研究与结论性研究的区别。比较基本的研究设计-探索性研究设计、描述性研究设计和因果研究设计。描述性研究设计中的主要误差来源。讨论协调研究项目时面临的管理问题，特别是预算与进度安排。描述营销研究计划的组成部分，并说明他是如何指导营销研究过程的。理解在进行研究设计过程中所产生的伦理问题与冲突。2011/2/122Chapter Outline章节提纲1)Overview2)Research Design:Definition3)Research Design:Classifi
2、cation4)Exploratory Research5)Descriptive Researchi.Cross-Sectional Designii.Longitudinal Designiii.Advantages and Disadvantages of Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Designs6)Causal Research7)Relationships Among Exploratory,Descriptive and Causal Research概要研究设计：定义研究设计：分类探索性研究描述性研究横截面设计纵向设计相对优缺点因果研究探索
3、性、描述性和因果研究的关系2011/2/123Chapter Outline8)Potential Sources of Errori.Random Sampling Errorii.Non-sampling Errora.Non-response Errorb.Response Error 9)Budgeting and Scheduling10)Marketing Research Proposal11)International Marketing Research12)Ethics in Marketing Research13)Summary潜在的误差源随机抽样误差非抽样误差无响应误
4、差响应误差项目预算和进度安排营销研究计划书国际市场营销研究市场营销研究道德总结2011/2/124Research Design:Definition研究设计：定义 is a framework or blueprint for conducting the marketing research project.It details the procedures necessary for obtaining the information needed to structure or solve marketing research problems.A research design 是开
5、展某一营销研究项目时所要遵循的一个框架计划，他详细描述获取分析和解决营销研究问题所需信息的必要程序。研究设计2011/2/125Components of a Research Design研究设计的组成部分Define the information needed(Chapter 2)Design the exploratory,descriptive,and/or causal phases of the research(Chapters 3-7)Specify the measurement and scaling procedures(Chapters 8 and 9)Constru
6、ct and pretest a questionnaire(interviewing form)or an appropriate form for data collection(Chapter 10)Specify the sampling process and sample size(Chapters 11 and 12)Develop a plan of data analysis(Chapter 14)定义所需信息（第二章）设计研究的探索性阶段、描述性阶段或因果阶段（第3-7章）详细说明测量与设计量表的程序（第8-9章）设计调查问卷（访谈表）或者合适的数据收集表格，并进行预调查（
7、第10章）确定抽样过程和样本量（第11-12章）制定数据分析计划（第14章）2011/2/126A Classification of Marketing Research Designs营销研究设计分类Single Cross-Sectional Design一次性横截面设计Multiple Cross-Sectional Design重复性横截面设计Fig.3.1Research Design 研究设计Conclusive Research Design结论性研究设计Exploratory Research Design探索性研究设计Descriptive Research描述性研究Cau
8、sal Research因果研究Cross-Sectional Design横截面设计Longitudinal Design纵向设计2011/2/127Exploratory&Conclusive Research Differences探索性研究与结论性研究的区别探索性研究与结论性研究的区别Objective:Character-istics:Findings/Results:Outcome:To provide insights and understandingInformation needed is defined only loosely.Research process is f
9、lexible and unstructured.Sample is small and non-representative.Analysis of primary data is qualitativeTentativeGenerally followed by further exploratory or conclusive researchTo test specific hypotheses and examine relationshipsInformation needed is clearly defined.Research process is formal and st
10、ructured.Sample is large and representative.Data analysis is quantitativeConclusiveFindings used as input into decision makingExploratoryConclusiveTable 3.12011/2/128Exploratory&Conclusive Research Differences探索性研究与结论性研究的区别比较项目比较项目探索性研究探索性研究结论性研究结论性研究目标提供对问题的看法与理解检验特定的假设，并验证特定的相互关系特征只是大体定义出所需要的信息研究过
11、程灵活、非结构化样本小、不具代表性定性的原始数据分析清楚定义所需要的信息研究过程正式且结构化样本大、有代表性定量的数据分析结论尝试性结论性结果进一步的探索性研究或结论性研究紧随其后结果用作管理决策的依据2011/2/129A Comparison of Basic Research Designs基本研究设计的比较 Table 3.2比较项目比较项目Exploratory探索性研究探索性研究Descriptive描述性研究描述性研究Causal因果研究因果研究Objective:目标Discovery of ideas and insights发现新想法与新观点Describe market
12、characteristics or functions描述市场的特征或功能Determine cause and effect relationships确定因果关系Characteristics:特征Flexible,versatile灵活多变Often the front end of total research design通常是整个研究设计的起始Marked by the prior formulation of specific hypotheses预先提出特定的假设Preplanned and structured design预先设计好的结构化的设计Manipulation
13、of independent variables,effect on dependent variables操纵一个或多个变量Control mediating variables控制调节变量Methods:方法Expert surveys专家调查Pilot surveys预调查Case studiesSecondary data:qualitative analysisqualitative researchSecondary data:quantitative analysisSurveysPanelsObservation and other dataExperiments实验法2011
14、/2/1210Uses of Exploratory Research探索性研究的使用Formulate a problem or define a problem more preciselyIdentify alternative courses of actionDevelop hypothesesIsolate key variables and relationships for further examinationGain insights for developing an approach to the problemEstablish priorities for furt
15、her research阐明或更准确地定义一个问题确定备选的行动方案提出假设将主要变量及其相互关系分离以便进一步验证得到解决问题的思路确定进一步研究的重点2011/2/1211Methods of Exploratory Research探索性研究的方法Survey of experts(discussed in Chapter 2)Pilot surveys(discussed in Chapter 2)Secondary data analyzed in a qualitative way(discussed in Chapter 4)Qualitative research(discus
16、sed in Chapter 5)专家调查（第二章）预调查（第二章）二手数据的定性分析（第四章）定性研究（第5章）2011/2/1212Department Store Project百货商店项目实际应用回顾学术文献和行业文献，以确定影响消费者关顾百货商场的相关的人口统计因素与心理因素访问零售专家以便确认发展趋势，如新的零售形式以及消费者新的购物模式对同一连锁店的3家最好、3家最差的店面进行对比分析，从而得到影响 商店业绩的因素进行专题组座谈来确认消费者认为那些因素是选择商场时考虑的重要因素2011/2/1213Use of Descriptive Research描述性研究的使用To des
17、cribe the characteristics of relevant groups,such as consumers,salespeople,organizations,or market areas To estimate the percentage of units in a specified population exhibiting a certain behavior To determine the perceptions of product characteristicsTo determine the degree to which marketing varia
18、bles are associatedTo make specific predictions描述相关群体如消费者、销售人员、组织、市场区域的特征。例如描述经常在豪华商店购物的人的特征估计在特定群体中由某一行为的人的比例经常在豪华商场购物的消费者中也经常关顾折扣店的比例判断对产品特征的感知针对选择商场的标准中的重要因素，消费者是如何看待各个商场的确定与营销变量相关的程度逛商场与在外面吃饭有多大关系进行特定的预测在某个地区（成都）某个商店（仁和春天）时尚服装（特定的产品种类）的零售额是多少2011/2/1214Department Store Project百货商店项目 6 WWHO 谁：谁是某
19、一商店的顾客？有如下几种可能的定义：凡是到商店的人，无论他（她）是否购物在商店买任何东西的人至少每月到商店购物一次的人 家中负责到商店购物的人WHAT 什么：从调查对象哪里应该获取那些信息？可以得到的信息包括：为特定的产品种类而光顾不同商店的频率在选择商店的标准上，消费者对各个商店的评价与所要验证的特定假设相关的信息心理特征、生活方式、媒体消费习惯以及人口统计特征WHEN 何时：应当何时从调查对象哪里获取信息？可能的选择是：购物前购物时购物后立即购物后一段时间，让消费者有时间来评价其购物的经历2011/2/1215Department Store Project百货商店项目 5 W1HWHER
20、E 何地：应在何处与调查对象接触来获取信息？与调查对象接触的可能地点如下：商店里购物中心内，商店外。停车场家里WHY 为什么：为什么要从调查对象哪里获取信息？为什么要执行市场调查项目？可能的原因如下：改善客户形象增加消费者的光顾和市场份额改变产品组合开展合适的促销活动为新店选址HOW 如何：如何从调查对象哪里获取信息？可能的途径有：观察调查对象的行为人员访谈电话访谈邮件访谈电子调查（电子邮件或因特网）2011/2/1216Methods of Descriptive Research描述性研究的方法Secondary data analyzed in a quantitative,as opp
21、osed to a qualitative,manner(discussed in Chapter 4)Surveys(Chapter 6)Panels(Chapters 4 and 6)Observational and other data(Chapter 6)二手收据的定量研究（第4章）调查法（第6章）固定样本组（第4章、第6章）观察数据和其他数据（第6章）2011/2/1217Cross-Sectional Designs横截面设计Involve the collection of information from any given sample of population elem
22、ents only once In single cross-sectional designs,there is only one sample of respondents and information is obtained from this sample only once.指一次性地从特定的样本总体中收集信息。一次性横截面设计，是指在目标总体中仅抽取一个调查对象样本，从这一样本中收集一次信息，也叫抽样调查研究设计。2011/2/1218Cross-Sectional Designs横截面设计In multiple cross-sectional designs,there are
23、 two or more samples of respondents,and information from each sample is obtained only once.Often,information from different samples is obtained at different times.Cohort analysis consists of a series of surveys conducted at appropriate time intervals,where the cohort serves as the basic unit of anal
24、ysis.A cohort is a group of respondents who experience the same event within the same time interval.重复性横截面设计，是指有2个或以上的调查对象样本，并且只能从每一样本中收集一次信息，不同样本的信息通常在间隔很长一段的不同时期获取。在群体水平而不是在个体水平上进行比较。队列分析是指以恰当的时间间隔所进行的一系列调查，其中队列是分析的基本单位。一个队列是指相同的时期经历同一时间的一组调查对象。2011/2/1219Consumption of Various Soft Drinks by Vari
25、ous Age Cohorts不同年龄队列软饮料的消费量8-1920-2930-3940-4950+Age196019691979195052.945.233.923.218.162.660.746.640.828.8C173.276.067.758.650.0C281.075.871.467.851.9C3C8C7C6C5C4C1:cohort born prior to 1900C2:cohort born 1901-10C3:cohort born 1911-20C4:cohort born 1921-30C5:cohort born 1931-40C6:cohort born 1940
26、-49C7:cohort born 1950-59C8:cohort born 1960-69Table 3.3Percentage consuming on a typical day日消费百分比2011/2/1220Longitudinal Designs纵向设计 A fixed sample(or samples)of population elements is measured repeatedly on the same variablesA longitudinal design differs from a cross-sectional design in that the
27、sample or samples remain the same over time是指对目标总体中的固定样本组的同一组变量进行重复测量。纵向设计与横截面设计不同，因为纵向设计中样本或样本组随时间保持不变。2011/2/1221Cross-Sectional vs.Longitudinal横截面与纵向对比Sample Surveyed at T1Sample Surveyed at T1Same Sample also Surveyed at T2T1T2Cross-Sectional DesignLongitudinal DesignTime2011/2/1222Relative Adva
28、ntages and Disadvantages of Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional DesignsEvaluation CriteriaCross-Sectional DesignLongitudinal DesignDetecting Change洞察变化Large amount of data collection收集大量数据Accuracy 准确性Representative Sampling样本代表性Response bias 回答偏差-+-Note:A“+”indicates a relative advantage over the other
29、 design,whereas a“-”indicates a relative disadvantage.注：+表示相对于另一种研究设计的优势，-表示相对劣势Table 3.42011/2/1223Cross-Sectional Data May Not Show Change横截面数据不能反映变化横截面数据不能反映变化Brand Purchased购买的品牌购买的品牌 Time Period时间段时间段Period 1 Period 2Survey调查时段调查时段1 Survey调查时段调查时段2 Brand A200 200Brand B300 300Brand C500 500Tota
30、l 1000 1000Table 3.52011/2/1224Longitudinal Data May Show Substantial Change纵向数据可以反映变化Brand Purchased in Period 1Brand Purchased in Period 2Brand ABrand BBrand C TotalBrand ABrand BBrand CTotal100 25 75200 50100150300 50175275500 200 300 5001000Table 3.62011/2/1225Uses of Causal Research因果研究的使用To un
31、derstand which variables are the cause(independent variables)and which variables are the effect(dependent variables)of a phenomenonTo determine the nature of the relationship between the causal variables and the effect to be predictedMETHOD:Experiments是用来获得一种现象那个变量是原因（自变量）和那个变量是结果（因变量）关系的证据。确定要预测的因果
32、关系变量之间的关系的性质方法：实验法2011/2/1226Alternative Research Designs2011/2/1227Exploratory ResearchSecondary Data AnalysisFocus GroupsConclusive ResearchDescriptive/CausalConclusive Research结论性研究结论性研究Descriptive/Causal Exploratory ResearchSecondary Data AnalysisFocus GroupsConclusive ResearchDescriptive/Causal
33、(a)(b)(c)A:当对问题的情形一无所知时，应该先使用探索性研究.探索性研究是整个研究设计框架的第一步，大多数情形，探索性研究之后应该是描述性或因果研究 B：每个研究设计没有必要都从探索性研究开始。C：虽然探索性研究是整个研究设计框架的第一步。但并不总是这样。Potential Sources of Error in Research Designs研究设计中的潜在的误差源Surrogate Information ErrorMeasurement ErrorPopulation Definition ErrorSampling Frame ErrorData Analysis Error
34、Respondent Selection ErrorQuestioning ErrorRecording ErrorCheating ErrorInability ErrorUnwillingness ErrorFig.3.2Total Error 总误差总误差Non-sampling Error非抽样误差非抽样误差Random Sampling Error随机抽样误差Response Error回答误差回答误差Interviewer Error访谈员误差访谈员误差Respondent Error调查对象误差调查对象误差Researcher Error研究人员误差研究人员误差Non-respo
35、nse Error拒答误差拒答误差2011/2/1228Errors in Marketing Research营销研究中的误差 is the variation between the true mean value in the population of the variable of interest and the observed mean value obtained in the marketing research project.The total error is the variation between the true mean value for the popu
36、lation and the true mean value for the original sample.Random sampling error 是指所感兴趣的变量在总体中的真实平均值与营销研究项目中得到的观察值之间的差异。总体误差 总体的真实平均值与样本真实平均值之间的差异。存在的原因是所选择的特定样本不能完全代表相应的总体。随机抽样误差2011/2/1229Errors in Marketing Research营销研究中的误差 can be attributed to sources other than sampling,and they may be random or no
37、nrandom:including errors in problem definition,approach,scales,questionnaire design,interviewing methods,and data preparation and analysis.Non-sampling errors consist of non-response errors and response errors.Non-sampling errors 不是由抽样导致的 他可以是随机的或者非随机的。包括问题定义、研究框架、测量侧度、问卷设计、访谈方法以及数据准备和分析等方面的误差/非抽样误差
38、2011/2/1230Errors in Marketing Research营销研究中的误差 arises when some of the respondents included in the sample do not respond.Non-response error arises when respondents give inaccurate answers or their answers are misrecorded or misanalyzed.Response error 当抽中的对象不予回答时，就产生了拒答误差。拒答误差 当调查对象的答案不准确或者被错误地记录或分析
39、时，就产生了回答误差。回答误差2011/2/1231Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal Research花旗银行集团的探索性、描述性和因果研究2011/2/1232Marketing Research at Citicorp is typical in that it is used to measure consumer awareness of products,monitor their satisfaction and attitudes associated with the product,track produ
40、ct usage and diagnose problems as they occur.To accomplish these tasks Citicorp makes extensive use of exploratory,descriptive,and causal research.Often it is advantageous to offer special financial packages to specific groups of customers.In this case,a financial package is being designed for senio
41、r citizens.The following seven-step process was taken by marketing research to help in the design.Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal Research2011/2/12331)A taskforce was created to better define the market parameters to include all the needs of the many Citicorp branches.A final de
42、cision was made to include Americans 55 years of age or older,retired,and in the upper half of the financial strata of that market.Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal Research2011/2/12342)Exploratory research in the form of secondary data analysis of the mature or older market was t
43、hen performed and a study of competitive products was conducted.Exploratory qualitative research involving focus groups was also carried out in order to determine the needs and desires of the market and the level of satisfaction with the current products.In the case of senior citizens,a great deal o
44、f diversity was found in the market.This was determined to be due to such factors as affluence,relative age,and the absence or presence of a spouse.Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal Research3)The next stage of research was brainstorming.This involved the formation of many differen
45、t financial packages aimed at the target market.In this case,a total of 10 ideas were generated.2011/2/1235Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal Research4)The feasibility of the 10 ideas generated in step 3 was then tested.The ideas were tested on the basis of whether they were possib
46、le in relation to the business.The following list of questions was used as a series of hurdles that the ideas had to pass to continue on to the next step.Can the idea be explained in a manner that the target market will easily understand?Does the idea fit into the overall strategy of Citicorp?2011/2
47、/1236Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal ResearchIs there an available description of a specific target market for the proposed product?Does the research conducted so far indicate a potential match for target market needs,and is the idea perceived to have appeal to this market?Is th
48、ere a feasible outline of the tactics and strategies for implementing the program?Have the financial impact and cost of the program been thoroughly evaluated and determined to be in line with company practices?In this study,only one idea generated from the brainstorming session made it past all the
49、listed hurdles and on to step 5.2011/2/1237Citicorp Banks on Exploratory,Descriptive,and Causal Research2011/2/12385)A creative work-plan was then generated.This plan was to emphasize the competitive advantage of the proposed product as well as better delineate the specific features of the product.6
50、)The previous exploratory research was now followed up with descriptive research in the form of mall intercept surveys of people in the target market range.The survey showed that the list of special features was too long and it was decided to drop the features more commonly offered by competitors.Ci
