1、区域贸易合作政策及东亚结构体系区域贸易合作政策及东亚结构体系Chia Siow Yue新加坡国际事务研究所新加坡国际事务研究所亚洲自由贸易协定论坛亚洲自由贸易协定论坛:未来的走向未来的走向中国大饭店中国大饭店 北京北京 2010年年12月月8日日9日日2区域经济结构区域经济结构1v 多边主义、区域主义、双边主义在贸易政策中共存 2001年12月开始的多哈谈判现在仍陷入僵局 事实上，世贸组织中超过150个成员国表示大多数的国家在开放市场及规范贸易流领域中更重视多变贸易。但是，区域主义冲击着东亚和其他地区。这表明很多国家正在寻求对多哈谈判失败的保险政策，或者追求世贸组织一体化。根据自由贸易协定可以
2、达到比世贸组织更深入的自由化和一体化的可能。但过大的分组缺乏“志同道合”，导致大扩展名单却只有不多的整合措施。志同道合的国家当中双边主义也在欣欣向荣的发展着，它更容易协商而且允许更深入更灵活的整合。但太多的双边自由贸易协定创造一碗面条的问题，除非有一个共同的协商模板。3东亚全区域合作一体化案例东亚全区域合作一体化案例v 区域政治论点：有用的区域合作与整合可以减少地区政治的紧张局势和冲突。例如东盟。在国际组织和论坛中更有凝聚性更具话语权 能够实现（兑现）区域公共福利，同时又能减轻对全球和区域公众的不利影响 v 经济论点：帮助国家通过区域专业化和规模经济应对全球竞争，通过降低贸易和投资壁垒，简化条
3、例以及国内有竞争力的商业环境来提高经济效率，帮助经济结构重整和提升附加价值和技术水平;推动区域生产网络和供应链发展。实现比双边自由贸易协定带来更大的利益和更低成本的全区域贸易。4东亚全区域合作一体化案例东亚全区域合作一体化案例2帮助国家克服欧美自由贸易协定中已存在的歧视。提高来自19971998年亚洲金融危机的财政复苏能力以及缓解全球金融危机蔓延促进经济增长的再平衡，以减少对美欧市场的依赖程度 此外，一个地区性的自由贸易协定将简化并协调东亚贸易规则，尽量减少“一碗面条”的负面影响-海关编码（HS系统）和海关手续;原产地规则条例，产品标准和一致性要求，相互承认专业资格 5关于努力加强全区域自由贸
4、易协定的挑战关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战1v 界定区域范围的挑战界定区域范围的挑战 多种多样的专业术语被应用-东亚，亚洲，泛亚洲，亚太地区 两个东亚集团已被提出。东亚自由贸易区包括东盟10国加上中国、日本和韩国。东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定包括东亚自由贸易区国家以及澳大利亚，新西兰和印度。这两个集团不包括香港，澳门，台湾及蒙古。亚太地区的两个建议同时被提出-跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系（TPP）和亚太自由贸易区（FTAAP）。关于地理位置、地区政策以及经济方面的分组标准？从经济方面讲，由于规模经济以及创造贸易比转移贸易带来更大的效益，区域集团越大越好。然而，在很大程度上取决于该自由贸易协定的设
5、计。6关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战2v 关于设计高品质自由贸易协定的挑战关于设计高品质自由贸易协定的挑战 世贸组织的一致性-符合关贸总协定第二十四条和服务贸易总协定第五条。因为东亚全区域自由贸易协定将包括发达国家和发展中国家的经济体，所以它不能遵循世贸组织只对发展中国家有利的条款。世贸组织附加特点-自由和便利的货物及服务贸易，投资的自由、便利和保护；知识产权的保护，竞争政策以及政府采购的界定问题，劳工流动性和环境标准；经济合作。v 来自广阔发展差距的挑战来自广阔发展差距的挑战 在自由化范围、深度、速度方面很难达到共识 对于欠发达的成员需要强调特殊和差
6、别待遇，促进和发展合作7关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战3v 是否有区域领导？是否有区域领导？哪个国家或者国家集团将出任领导位置?是否拥有一个共同的政治眼光?如何克服历史争端和现在的经济对抗?如何让一些国家在各种问题中愿意放弃国家主权和政治空间？也许区域领导会根据问题的不同而改变。v 加强区域外的经济相互依存性加强区域外的经济相互依存性 许多国家在经济上为了最终市场，技术转让，外国直接投资和官方发展援助等原因向美欧靠拢。随着当前全球经济危机，东亚经济的相互依存关系将上升。v 深度整合的不同意愿深度整合的不同意愿 成员国越多，深度整合越难达成共识。也许应该
7、有一个核心思想，所有成员必须遵从。而且其他的思想成员国应该明确表明何时能够去做（如“东盟减X”的公式）。是否也应该包括金融一体化？8关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战关于努力加强全区域自由贸易协定的挑战4v 对于已存在的众多次区域和双边自由贸易区来讲，全对于已存在的众多次区域和双边自由贸易区来讲，全区域自由贸易协定是否具有附加价值？区域自由贸易协定是否具有附加价值？给这些区域一个较大的发言权，并且使它们在商务谈判中比其他区域更具优势。对于小型经济体，减少它们对于排斥和边缘化的恐惧，减少因签署和实施许多的双边自由贸易协定中行政和财务的费用 9以东盟为中心的东亚经济区域主义以东盟为中心的东亚经济
8、区域主义1v 东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、AFAS，友邦保险和，友邦保险和AEC 东盟经济体具有经济多样性的特点。多种差异表现在：东盟经济体具有经济多样性的特点。多种差异表现在：经济发展水平 以人均收入和经济结构为证 国际贸易和投资的开放 易于做生意 经济竞争力 对国际贸易和投资开放的巨大差异 需要缩短东盟需要缩短东盟6国和柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸和越南之间的发展差国和柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸和越南之间的发展差距。距。特殊和差别待遇遵从自由贸易协定规程 在外国直接投资，国家发展，教育和培训方面提供经济和技术援助10以东盟为中心的东亚经济区域主义以东盟为中心的东亚经济区域主义2机构小但影响大机构小但影响
9、大有限功能的极小秘书处有限功能的极小秘书处。组织每年众多的关于许多政治领袖，政府官员，学者和其他专业人士对话和论坛。东盟的执行不力的纪录已被归因于东盟的执行不力的纪录已被归因于 缺乏“政治意愿”缺乏实施能力 最小公分母的运算以及护航队中最薄弱环节 11以东盟为中心的东亚经济区域主义以东盟为中心的东亚经济区域主义3v 东盟东盟+1作为东亚基石作为东亚基石 东盟+中国，东盟+日本，东盟+韩国，东盟+印度以及东盟+澳大利亚/新西兰。此外，在协商下还包括东盟+欧盟和东盟+海湾合作委员会 他们都在自由贸易协定外扩展货物贸易自由话，包括：服务、投资的自由化，便利化以及诸如竞争政策，知识产权，政府采购，以及
10、经济和功能性合作等边界问题 不幸的是这些协议并没有共同的模板，即在不同时间和不同的东盟成员之间的协商要采取不同的力度和敏感度。也没有一个单一的东盟立场。有完成交易期，时间线，排除清单，原产地规则，标准和一致性要求的差异。如何实现这些差异的衔接呢？12东亚自由贸易区东亚自由贸易区 和 东亚全面经济伙伴东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定关系协定 1v 关于东亚自由贸易区和东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定作关于东亚自由贸易区和东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定作为东亚自由贸易协定的竞争为东亚自由贸易协定的竞争 东亚自由贸易区或东盟+3成员：ASEAN10，中国，日本，韩国。东亚全面经济伙伴或东盟10成员：ASEAN10，中国，
11、日本，韩国以及澳大利亚，新西兰和印度（东亚峰会的成员）东亚自由贸易区是由东盟+3东亚展望小组于2001年提出的。东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定 是日本在2006年东亚峰会时提出的。两者都是在自由贸易协定基础上提出的，包括贸易和投资自由化和便利化，“新加坡议题”，并在广泛的领域实现区域合作和功能合作，也就是全面的经济伙伴关系协定。13东亚自由贸易区东亚自由贸易区和东亚全面经济伙伴东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定关系协定 2v东亚自由贸易区 东盟+3小组根据金融和货币合作的需要出现在亚洲金融危机之时。在东盟+3清迈倡议(CMI)、清迈倡议多边化(CMIM),、亚洲债券市场倡议（ABMI）和区域监测机制（AMRO
12、）中金融和货币的合作已经制度化。东亚自由贸易区可行性研究于2005年启动，那时有东盟+3部长。第一阶段和第二阶段的报告完成并提交。报告书建议的路线图联合东盟+1和中日韩以巩固东亚自由贸易区，随即巩固东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定 14东亚自由贸易区东亚自由贸易区和东亚全面经济伙伴东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定关系协定 3v 东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定 东亚峰会同意在2007年1月启动对东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定 的研究。第一阶段和第二阶段的东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定 报告分别在2008年12月和2009年8月提交。它的功劳包括超过30亿人口的最大的世界经济集团：中国和印度的崛起。经济模拟
13、结果表明，较大的东亚全面经济伙伴关系比小东亚自由贸易区拥有更多的经济效益。有些人还认为它也为在东亚地区平衡印度经济对抗中国经济做出了贡献。不过，也有人认为，印度经济并不像东盟+3集团那样自由化，而且其保护主义势力将会减缓区域贸易自由化和投资自由化的步伐。15东亚自由贸易区东亚自由贸易区和东亚全面经济伙伴东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定关系协定 4v如何去做呢？如何去做呢？2009年10月，在泰国华欣举行的东盟峰会没有达成任何明确的决定。相反，高级经济官员奉命考虑东亚自由贸易区和东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定这两个提议，并汇报给2010年10月的东盟首脑会议。普遍的看法似乎是：巩固东盟+1成为东亚自由贸易区然
14、后促成东亚全面经济伙伴关系协定。16 亚太一体化亚太一体化.1v 跨太平洋经济伙伴关系跨太平洋经济伙伴关系 跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系（TPP的或P4）协议在4个小型及开放的APEC成员：文莱，新加坡，新西兰和智利于2006年实施。它没有引起多少关注，直到美国表示有兴趣参加，引发了多米诺骨牌效应。加入TPP的洽谈协商如今在原P4的国家以及澳大利亚，马来西亚，越南和秘鲁中进行，而日本由于其强大的民众农业保护主义而犹豫不定。跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系是一种“高品质”的协议，许多人将它看成是更广泛的亚太经济合作组织自由贸易协定（亚太自由贸易区）的建设集团。随着新成员的进入这种“高品质”将如何被削弱仍有待
15、观察。17亚太一体化亚太一体化.2v 亚太自由贸易区亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)v 之前美国为亚太自由贸易区提供的建议迄今遭到了冷之前美国为亚太自由贸易区提供的建议迄今遭到了冷淡的回应，评论家们认为：淡的回应，评论家们认为：这将从根本上将亚太经合组织从一个自愿性质的组织改变成一个谈判论坛。在亚太经合组织21个经济体中，使其在高质量的自由贸易协定中达成共识几乎是不可能的。美国总统如果没有完全的追踪干涉权和美国国会的贸易保护主义是不可能批准亚太自由贸易区成立的。它会从多哈回合谈判中转移稀缺资源。然而，在2010年11月亚太经合组织首脑会议中，亚太自由贸易区的想法是重新复活。它充其量只能作为一个长远
16、目标，因为重大挑战依然存在。展示结束展示结束谢谢大家谢谢大家Regional Trade Policy Cooperation and Architecture in East Asia Chia Siow YueSingapore Institute of International AffairsAsian FTA Forum:The Way ForwardChina World Hotel,Beijing8-9 December 201020The Regional Economic Architecture1v Co-existence of multilateralism,regio
17、nalism and bilateralism in trade policy Doha Round launched in December 2001 and is still in stalemate.The fact that WTO has more than 150 members shows most countries value multilateralism in opening markets and disciplining trade flows.But regionalism is surging in East Asia and elsewhere.Which sh
18、ows that countries are seeking an insurance policy against Doha failure,or else are pursuing WTO-plus integration.FTAs could achieve deeper liberalization and integration than possible under the WTO.But too large a grouping lacks“like-mindedness”and results in shallow integration with large exclusio
19、n lists.Bilateralism is also thriving among like-minded pairs of countries.It is easier to negotiate and allows for deeper integration as well as flexibility.But too many bilateral FTAs create a noodle bowl problem unless there is a common negotiating template21Case for Region-Wide Cooperation and I
20、ntegration1v Geopolitical arguments:Usefulness of regional cooperation and integration in reducing geopolitical tensions and conflicts.Example of ASEAN.Cohesive and stronger voice in international organizations and fora Delivering on regional public goods and mitigating against global and regional p
21、ublic badsv Economic arguments:Help countries cope with global competition through regional specialization and economies of scale;improve economic efficiency through lowering of trade and investment barriers,simplifying regulations,a competitive domestic environment for business;help economies restr
22、ucture and move up the“value added”and technological ladder;facilitate regional production networks and supply chains.Larger benefits and lower costs of region-wide versus bilateral FTAs22Case for Region-Wide Cooperation and Integration in East Asia2 Help countries overcome discrimination from exist
23、ing FTAs in Europe and the Americas Develop financial resilience following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 and mitigating global financial contagion Facilitate rebalancing of growth to reduce dependence on US-EU markets Additionally,a region-wide FTA would streamline and harmonize the rules of
24、 doing business in East Asia and minimize the negative noodle bowl effect-customs codes(HS system)and customs procedures;rules of origin;product standards and conformance requirements;mutual recognition of professional qualifications 23Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA1v Challenge of defining
25、the“region”Various terminology in use-East Asia,Asia,Pan-Asia,Asia Pacific Two East Asian groupings have been proposed.EAFTA comprises ASEAN10 plus China,Japan and South Korea.CEPEA comprises EAFTA countries as well as Australia,New Zealand and India.Both groupings exclude Hong Kong-Macau,Taiwan and
26、 Mongolia Two Asia Pacific proposals also on the table TPP and FTAAP Geographical,geopolitical,or economic criteria for groupings?On economic criteria,the bigger the regional grouping the better,due to economies of scale and scope and more trade creating than diverting effects.However,much depends o
27、n the design of the FTA 24 Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA2v Challenge of designing a high quality FTA WTO consistency conforms to the GATT Article XXIV and GATS Article V.Since an East Asian region-wide FTA will comprise both developed and developing economies,it cannot be notified to the W
28、TO under the Enabling Clause for developing countries.WTO plus features liberalization and facilitation of trade in goods and services;investment liberalization,facilitation and protection;behind-the-border issues of intellectual property rights protection,competition policy,government procurement;l
29、abor mobility and environmental standards;economic cooperationv Challenge of wide development gaps Difficult to achieve consensus on scope,depth and speed of liberalization Need to emphasis S&D treatment,facilitation,and development cooperation for the less developed members25 Challenges of Forging
30、a Region-Wide FTA3v Is there regional leadership?Which country or group of countries is going to lead?Is there a common political vision?How to overcome historic mistrust and current economic rivalry?How willing are countries to surrender national sovereignty and policy space on various issues?Maybe
31、 regional leadership will vary according to issuesv Extra-regional economic interdependence stronger Many countries are economically closer to the US-Europe for final markets,technology transfer,FDI and ODA.With the current global crisis,economic interdependence in East Asia will risev Different wil
32、lingness for deep integration The larger the membership,the greater the difficulty in reaching consensus on deep integration.Maybe there should be a core that all members must commit to and other commitments that members can sign-on to as and when able(e.g.“ASEAN minus X”formula).Willingness to have
33、 financial integration as well?26 Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA4v Is there value added in a region-wide FTA,given the numerous sub-regional and bilateral FTAs already in existence?Gives the region a larger voice and bargaining leverage versus other regional groupings For small economies,re
34、duce fear of exclusion and marginalization,and reduce the administrative and financial costs of having to sign and implement so many bilateral FTAs27ASEAN-Centric Economic Regionalism in East Asia1v ASEANs AFTA,AFAS,AIA and AEC ASEAN economies characterize by tremendous economic diversity.Wide diffe
35、rences in:Levels of economic development-as evidenced by per capita income and economic structure Openness to international trade and investment Ease of doing business Economic competitiveness Wide differences in openness to international trade and investment Need to narrow development gap between A
36、SEAN6 and CLMV S&D treatment in meeting FTA obligations and schedules Financial and technical help in form of foreign direct investment,development assistance,education and training assistance28ASEAN-Centric Economic Regionalism in East Asia2 Institution-light but dialogue-heavy Very small secretari
37、at with limited functions.Numerous annual dialogues and forums among political leaders,bureaucrats,academics and other professionals,and civil society ASEANs weak implementation record have been attributed to Lack of“political will”Lack of capacity to implement Operation of lowest common denominator
38、 or weakest link in the convoy29 ASEAN-Centric Economic Regionalism in East Asia3v ASEAN+1 as building blocks in East Asia ASEAN+China,ASEAN+Japan,ASEAN+Korea,ASEAN+India and ASEAN+Australia/New Zealand.Also under negotiation are ASEAN+EU and ASEAN+Gulf Cooperation Council They are all FTA plus in t
39、hat they extend beyond trade liberalization in goods to include liberalization of trade in services and investment,facilitation,and behind-the-border issues such as competition policy,intellectual property rights,government procurement,and economic and functional cooperation.Unfortunately these agre
40、ements have no common template,being negotiated at different times and with different ASEAN partners with different negotiating strengths and sensitivities.There is also no single ASEAN position.There are differences in completion dates,time lines,exclusion lists,rules of origin,standards and confor
41、mance requirements.How to achieve convergence with these differences?30EAFTA and/or CEPEA 1v Contest between EAFTA and CEPEA as an East Asia FTA.EAFTA or ASEAN+3 membership:ASEAN10,China,Japan,South Korea.CEPEA or ASEAN+10 membership:ASEAN10,China,Japan,South Korea as well as Australia,New Zealand a
42、nd India(members of the East Asia Summit)EAFTA proposed by the ASEAN+3 East Asia Vision Group in 2001.CEPEA proposed by Japan in 2006 to the East Asia Summit.Both are FTA-plus proposals with inclusion of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation,“Singapore issues”,and regional cooperation
43、 and functional cooperation in wide areas,that is,comprehensive economic partnership agreements.31EAFTA and/or CEPEA 2v EAFTA ASEAN+3 grouping emerged in the Asian Financial Crisis and need for financial and monetary cooperation.Financial and monetary cooperation is already institutionalized in the
44、ASEAN+3 Chiang Mai Initiative(CMI),Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralized(CMIM),Asian Bond Market Initiative(ABMI)and the regional surveillance mechanism(AMRO)Feasibility study on EAFTA launched in 2005 by ASEAN+3 ministers.Phase I and Phase II of report completed and submitted.Report proposed road
45、map consolidation of ASEAN+1 and CJK to EAFTA and then CEPEA32EAFTA and/or CEPEA 3v CEPEA East Asia Summit in January 2007 agreed to launch study on CEPEA.Phase I and Phase II CEPEA Reports submitted in Dec 2008 and August 2009 respectively Merit of including both a rising China and a rising India,r
46、esulting in the largest economic bloc of over 3 billion population in the world.Economic modeling results show the larger CEPEA confers more economic benefits than the smaller EAFTA.Some also argue the merits of balancing the economic might of India against that of China in the East Asia region.Howe
47、ver,there is also the concern that the Indian economy is not as liberalized as the ASEAN+3 group and its protectionist forces will slow down the pace of regional trade and investment liberalization33EAFTA and/or CEPEA 4v Way Forward?At ASEAN Summits in Hua Hin in October 2009,no definite decision re
48、ached.Instead,senior economic officials were tasked to consider the recommendations of both the EAFTA and CEPEA reports and to report back to the ASEAN Summit in October 2010 The prevailing view seems to be:consolidate ASEAN+1 into EAFTA and then into CEPEA.34 Asia-Pacific Integration.1v Trans-Pacif
49、ic Economic Partnership The Trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership(TPP or P4)agreement was implemented in 2006 among 4 small and open APEC members,Brunei,Singapore,New Zealand and Chile.It attracted little attention until the US expressed interest in joining,triggering a domino effect.Negotiat
50、ions to join TPP are now underway between the original P4 countries and Australia,Malaysia,Vietnam and Peru,while Japan is still dithering because of its strong protectionist agricultural lobby.The TPP is a“high quality”agreement and many regard it as a building bloc for the wider APEC FTA(FTAAP).Ho
