1、漫谈金融全球化漫谈金融全球化魏尚进纯属个人观点,言责自负 文献小结:金融全球化金融全球化,理论上好处一条接一条理论上好处一条接一条;费尽吃奶尽费尽吃奶尽,实证的效果不妙也不巧实证的效果不妙也不巧.综述文章综述文章:Prasad,Rogoff,Wei,and Kose,IMF,2003 Kose,Prasad,Rogoff,and Wei,2005(JEL?)TurkeyIndiaU.S.A.ChinaBenefits of Financial Integration:TheoryDirect Channels Efficient international allocation of capi
2、tal For capital-poor economieslower cost of capital,higher investment Spillovers of technological and managerial expertiseBenefits of Financial Integration:TheoryIndirect Channels Domestic financial sector development Specialization Disciplining device for macro policiesBenefits of Financial Integra
3、tion:TheoryEffects on Volatility No strong implication for output volatility Consumption smoothing via international risk sharing=Lower consumption volatilityGrowth Benefits of Financial Integration:EvidenceAbout 20 studies of growth effectsNo effect:4Mixed:12Positive:4 閾值效应(Threshold Effect):政府缺良治,
4、金融开放则危机增发百姓更吃苦;政府有良治,金融开放则投资增加生活有出路.例子:新加坡,香港阿根廷,刚果 文献:Wei,2000;Alfaro,Kalemli-Ozcan and Volosovych,2003;Klein,2005;Chinn and Ito,2005.组合效应(Composition Effect):国际银行贷款两刃刀,危机增加效率也难保;国际直接投资效果好,资本增加风险又减少.例子:中国 vs.阿根廷 文献:Frankel and Rose;Kose,Prasad,Rogoff,and Wei;Frankel and Wei.The composition hypothes
5、is Not all capital flows are equal FDI and maybe portfolio inflow are more beneficial to growth than debt Desoto and Reisen 2001;Bekaert,Harvey,and Lundblad,2005,JFE FDI is also less volatile than international bank loans-More reliance on bank loans increases vulnerability to currency crashes Franke
6、l and Rose,1996;Frankel and Wei,2005Volatility of(FDI/GDP)and(Loan/GDP)(1980-2003,Measured by Standard Deviation)0.02.04.06.08Standard Deviation.FDI/GDP Loan/GDPVolatility of(FDI/GDP)and(Loan/GDP)(1980-2003,Measured by Coefficient of Variation).511.522.53Coefficient of Variation.FDI/GDP Loan/GDP 閾值效
7、应 与组合效应:文献中提出为两个独立的解释 两者是否可能是同一硬币的两面?魏尚进(2000,2001);魏尚进与武屹(2002)Corruption is linked to a composition of capital inflows away from FDI and towards bank loans.Feira and Mauro(2005):Higher institutional quality-higher share of“equity-like”capital flows in total foreign liabilities.反对意见:Albuqurque(2004
8、 JIE):worse credit rating related to more(not less)FDI/total inflows.即使成立,怎么知道是因果关系?迎击挑战:金融体制与其他政府良治指标 对外来资本组合的影响可能不一.寻找工具变量 来确认因果关系.金融体制与其他政府良治指标 对外来资本组合的影响可能不一.鞠建东 与 魏尚进(2005),Caballero,Farhi,and Gourinchas(2005):Low financial development+Low K/L ratio-inward FDI+capital outflow 寻找工具变量 来确认因果关系.需要
9、IV for corruption IV for financial institution 腐败的工具变量:殖民成本 initial mortality of European colonizers 殖民过程代价高,政权掠夺又残暴;殖民容易象过桥,民众财产有担保.谁先想出?Acemoglu,Johnson&Robinson 例子:非洲 与 澳洲 墨西哥 与 加拿大 金融体制的工具变量:法律体系的渊源(legal origin)英美式的法律体系更多保护股权人债权人利益 英美common law,制约百姓也限当权;法西civil law,表面公平实偏特权.谁先想出?La Porta,De-sil
10、anes,Shleifer&Vishny 例子:美国 与 法国 墨西哥 与 加拿大 注意:Settler mortality and legal origin are not highly correlated.实证结果实证结果:腐败越高腐败越高,FDI 的比重就越低的比重就越低(外国银行贷外国银行贷款的比重就越高款的比重就越高).我我2000的假说的确反映的的假说的确反映的是因果关系是因果关系.金融体制优劣与外国银行贷款的比重无关金融体制优劣与外国银行贷款的比重无关系系;但金融体制质量越低但金融体制质量越低,FDI 的比重可能的比重可能更高更高.今后的研究工作 刚才讨论了政府的良治程度怎么通过影响金融全球化金融全球化的的閾值效应 来影响金融全球化金融全球化的的组合效应.也需知道金融全球化金融全球化怎么影响政府的行为,包括向良治转变的改革.欲知结果,且听下回分解
