1、 杨万荣 2005年3月lDay1 AM：项目管理概论：知识领域、生命周期、项目环境lDay1 PM：项目决策：决策依据项目建议书、项目申请书、项目可行性研究报告项目拟定：分组、拟定项目lDay2 Am：计划：WBS,WBS Dictionary，Gantt Chart，Network（ADM，PDM），CPM；成本管理：AC,BC,CV,CPIlDay2 Pm：Microsoft Project and other softwaresApplication:elements of Project lDay 3 Am：项目人力资源管理：项目经理、项目团队、项目冲突、项目组织案例：lDay 3
2、Pm：项目沟通管理：沟通计划、沟通技术lDay 4 Am：项目风险管理、项目质量管理lDay 4 Pm：项目质量管理综合案例：悉尼小木屋案例、国民保险公司案例内容的复习，课堂测试。l成功的项目管理 （美国）J.Guido 机械工业l有效的项目管理(第二版）罗伯特K 威索基l项目管理（英）M.Field L.Keller东北财大l项目管理丛书 清华大学l项目管理知识体系指南 A Guide to the Project Management body of knowledge(PMBOK)PMI 2000 Version根据2000版PMBOK所定义l项目整体管理(Integrity)l项目范围
3、管理(Scope)l项目时间管理(Time)l项目成本管理(Cost)l项目质量管理(Quality)l项目人力资源管理(Human Resource)）l项目沟通管理(Communication)l项目风险管理(Risk)l项目采购管理(Procurement）1.项目的涵义和特征项目的涵义和特征2.在项目管理中的关键约束条件在项目管理中的关键约束条件3.一个项目是怎样诞生的一个项目是怎样诞生的4.项目生命周期项目生命周期5.项目管理过程所涉及的步骤项目管理过程所涉及的步骤6.项目管理的益处项目管理的益处以一套独特而相互联系的任务为前提,有效地利用资源,在一定的期限内为实现一个特定的目标所做
4、的努力.l项目有一个明确界定的目标（Objectives）l项目的执行要通过完成一系列相互关联的任务（Tasks）l项目需要运用各种资源来执行任务（Resources）l项目有具体的时间计划或有限的寿命（life cycle）l项目可能是独一无二的、一次性的努力（effort）l每个项目都有客户（customers，clients）l项目包含一定的不确定性（uncertainties）l安排一个演出活动l开发和介绍一种新产品l设计和执行一个计算机系统l使一个工厂现代化l组织一次培训活动l组织某产品的促销活动l组织一次市场调查l保安巡逻是否为项目l项目管理中的问题列举l项目干系人l项目来源l项目
5、和战略规划的关系l可行性研究l项目章程l个人和组织，他们或者积极参与项目，或者其利益在项目执行中或者成功后收到积极或消极影响。l项目经理负责项目的个人l发起人（Sponsor）执行组织内部或外部的个人获团体，他们以现金和实物的形式为项目提供资金资源l拥护者（Supporters)l顾客Customer 或委托人Client使用项目产品的个人或组织。顾客可能是多层次的。l项目成员l其他l中海油中石化里海项目中海油中石化里海项目(新浪网报道）新浪网报道）l理工大学体育馆理工大学体育馆l中国居民新身份证项目中国居民新身份证项目l组织政府企业团体l个人l来源：组织使命（Mission Statemen
6、t）来自上层的变革来自下层的变革外部变革（环境）l目标识别方法：l头脑风暴法（Brainstorming）l名义团体法（Nominal Group Technique）l关系图l最终益处:拥有满意的客户l个人获益:满足感,知名度,扩展知识,提高能力QualityScopeScheduleResource 工作范围即为使客户满意而必须做的所有工作成本即客户同意为一个可接受的项目交付物所付的款项进度计划是使每项活动开始及结束时间具体化的进度计划客户满意度CostTimeQualitylThroughout the project,you will need to determine on what
7、 basis to make decision.Determining the flexibility of a project is crucial to this process.lProject flexibility is lA PRIORITIED ordering of the three elements of a projectl LeastMODERATmostlProject 1)scopeschedule resourcelProject2)schedule scope resourcelProject3)resourceschedule scopeI.P.E.C.C.(
8、PMI 所定义）l发起 Initiationl计划 Planningl执行 Executingl控制 Controllingl结束 ClosingInitiatingprocessesPlanningProcessesExecutingProcessesControllingProcessesClosing Processes时 间识别需 求提 出解 决方 案执 行 项 目结束项目项 目 生 命 周 期投 入 力 量需求建议书合同项目目标识别需求:l识别需求和精选项目l制定需求建议书l征求申请过程l研究RFP，产生可行性方案l国家发展与改革委员会(www.spec.go.can)l参见相关文件
9、范围（Scope definition）目标成本时间约束经济、技术可行性l定性社会、生态、政治因素、技术l定量财务（成本）l 产生可行性或可以接受的方案l技术的成熟度(maturity)、正确度(accuracy)、可用度(availability)l技术的其他方面在建设或安装阶段的混乱程度技术的应用系统的可用性现有基础设施的使用和该改善，或新基础设施的建设市场销路l生态和社会因素：生态（玻璃瓶的回收利用）l社会因素l项目是否值得投入？如何获得回报l如果有几种备选的机会，哪种最佳？l成本收益分析（cost-benefit analysis)l现金流量表l投资回收期l净现值和内部受益率l是项目周
10、期的最初阶段，开始于识别需求、问题或机会，结束于需求建议书的发布l搜集有关问题的资料，清晰的定义问题和需求l估计收益和改善的大小，确定为改善情况所需的项目预算l目的:从客户的角度全面、详细的论述为了达成确定的需求应需要做什么准备l在许多情况下不用准备正式的RFPl国家计委(www.spec.go.can)规范的项目建议书的格式l合同类型l付款方式l进度计划l申请书的格式和内容指示l希望潜在承约商提交申请书的最后期限l评价标准：经验，技术方法，进度计划，成本lS.Specific（量化）lM.Measurable（可测量）lA.Achievable （可达到）lR.Relevant （合适）lT
11、.Timely,Traceable （及时、可跟踪）l一个企业认为某个制造过程的废品率或一个企业认为某个制造过程的废品率或次品率太高了，它可能需要搜集有关实次品率太高了，它可能需要搜集有关实际产品废品率的资料，以及废品率对成际产品废品率的资料，以及废品率对成本和周期循环次数影响的资料，确定问本和周期循环次数影响的资料，确定问题的数量，以决定是否执行解决方案。题的数量，以决定是否执行解决方案。确定预期收益是否大于执行项目的成本，确定预期收益是否大于执行项目的成本，如果大于，大多少。如果企业估计把废如果大于，大多少。如果企业估计把废品率从品率从5%降到降到1%，每年能节约，每年能节约10万元，万元
12、，他可能愿意为一件新的自动生产设备一他可能愿意为一件新的自动生产设备一次性投资次性投资20万元，但他可能不愿意花万元，但他可能不愿意花50万元。万元。lJennifer应如何处理这US$200,000.00lRole Play:Jennifer,Julie,Tyler,Jeff,Joel向提前选出的承约商下发RFPl向所有的承约商提供相同的信息,保证公平竞争l并非所有项目生命周期都包括书面需求建议书的准备和承约商的申请l设计市场策略以及是否投标决策l制定能中标的申请书l申请准备过程和申请书可能会包括的要素l定价理由l评价申请书l客户和承约商之间的合同类型在潜在的客户准备提出需求建议书前不久在潜
13、在的客户准备提出需求建议书前不久,就与客户建立联系就与客户建立联系承约商应当经常与老客户、当前客户保持承约商应当经常与老客户、当前客户保持密切的联系，并且开创与潜在的客户的密切的联系，并且开创与潜在的客户的联系联系l竞争l风险l任务l能力扩展服务l声誉l客户资金l申请书所需资源l项目所需资源 理解客户的要求理解客户的要求能执行申请的项目能执行申请的项目是最佳承约商是最佳承约商相关项目的成功经验相关项目的成功经验将在预算内和进度计划约束下完成项目将在预算内和进度计划约束下完成项目能使客户满意能使客户满意l承约商必须突出不同于竞争者的因素l申请书应当简明扼要lS.M.A.R.Tl简单项目:一个人l
14、复杂项目:小组的工作l任命一名申请书经理,l组织一个申请小组l建立一份进度计划各项人员起草他们被指派的申请书部分的完成日期执行审议的日期申请书拍板定型的日期打印、复印时间邮寄时间l技术部分使客户意识到承约商理解需求或问题使客户意识到承约商理解需求或问题,并且能够提供并且能够提供风险最低且收益最大的解决方案风险最低且收益最大的解决方案l管理部分 使客户确信使客户确信,承约商能做好项目所提出的工作承约商能做好项目所提出的工作,并且并且收到预期效果收到预期效果l成本部分使客户确信使客户确信,承约商申请项目所提出的价格是现实的、承约商申请项目所提出的价格是现实的、合理的合理的.l理解问题承约商应当用自
15、己的话来表明他对客户的问题或需求的理解l提出方法或解决方案描述承约商将如何搜集、分析和评价有关问题的资料信息将被承约商用来评估几个备选方案或进一步提出解决方案的方法提出方案或方法的基本原理l确认提出的方案或解决方法，将能够满足RFP要求l客户的收益l工作任务描述l交付物l项目进度计划l项目组织l相关经验l设备和工具l直接成本（Direct Cost)劳动力：等级，工时，小时工资率原材料分包商和顾问设备和设施租金差旅费文件l企业一般管理费（indirect Cost）l物价上涨(动态成本）l意外开支准备金(contingence)或管理储备金（management reserve)l利润 l成本
16、预算的可信度l风险l项目对承约商的重要性l客户预算l竞争l评估方式 排除式评估,记分式评估l评估标准遵从客户在需求建议书中提到的要求和工作表述承约商对客户问题与需求的理解承约商提出的解决问题方法的合理性与可行性承约商具有的有关类似项目的经验与成功经验管理能力承约商进度计划的现实性价格l固定价格合同(fixed-price contract)客户与承约商就所申请的项目价格达成一致,保持不变,除非双方均同意改变l成本补偿合同(cost compensation contract)客户同意付给承约商所有实际花费的成本,加上一定的协商利润,而不规定数额l不同的合同对于客户与承约商来说风险不同 客户承约
17、商Fixed-price contractCost Compensation Contractl谎报成本(illegal)l成本超支或进度计划延迟通知l分包商的支持l专利l专有信息的透露l国际化考虑l终止理由l付款方式奖金/罚款l变更制定基准计划 项目开始执行在每个报告期内收集有关实际绩效的资 料(进度计划、成本）把变更内容修订进项目计划中（工作范围、进度计划、预算）测估近期的项目进度计划、预算和预测分析目前状况，并与基准计划做比较（进度计划、预算）需要采取纠正措施吗？确定纠正措施并制定相关的纠正内容等到下一个报告期l项目经理应当仔细斟酌，确定一个合适的开会时间l请客户协助填写项目评估调查表l
18、项目成功的可能性和开发时间l资金短缺l客户不满意 计划是为完成一个目标而进行的系统的任务安排。计划上实际进度比较的基准。l明确项目目标l制定工作分析结构l制作网络图l对于信息系统开发项目,使用一种叫做系统发展生命周期的项目管理方法lPM Processes can be organized into five groups of one or more processes each:Initiating processes-authorizing the project or phasePlanning processes-defining and refining objectives an
19、d selecting the best of the alternative courses of action to attain the objectives that the project was undertaken to addressExecuting processes-coordination people and other resources to carry out the planControlling processes-ensuring that project objectives are met by monitoring and measuring pro
20、gress regularly to identify variances from plan so that corrective action can be taken when necessary.Closing processes-formalizing acceptance of the project or phase and bringing it to an orderly endScopeScope PlanningTimeActivity DefinitionTimeActivity SequencingTimeSchedule DevelopmentScopeScope
21、definitionCostResource PlanningTimeActivity DurationEstimatingCostCost EstimatingRiskRisk Management PlanningCostCost BudgetingQualityQuality PlanningQualityQuality PlanningHROrganizational PlanningHRStaffAcquisitionProcurementProcurementPlanningProcurementSolicitation PlanningRiskRisk Identificatio
22、nRiskQualitative AnalysisRiskQuantitative AnalysisRiskresponse PlanningInputsTools&TechniquesOutputs1.Product description2.Project Charter3.Constraints4.Assumptions1.Product analysis2.Benefit/Cost analysis3.Alternatives identification4.Expert judgment1.Scope statement2.Supporting detail3.Scope mgmt
23、planInputsTools&TechniquesOutputs1.Scope statement2.Constraints3.Assumptions4.Other planning outputs5.Historical info.1.Work breakdown Structure templates2.Decomposition1.WBS2.Scope statement updateslThe Basis for making future project decisions and for confirming or developing common understanding
24、of project scope among the stakeholderslA documented description of the projects output and/or deliverableslScope statement should includeProject justificationlThe business need.The basis for evaluating future tradeoffsProjects productlA Summary of the product descriptionProject deliverablesQuantifi
25、ed Project ObjectiveslCost,Schedule,and MetricslUsability metrics Example:Measured relative to users performance on a given set of test tasks.The most basic measures are the time a task requires,the error rate,and users subjective satisfaction.l学员45人分为一组（5分钟）l每个小组拟定一个项目（25分钟）l要求 在项目中指明项目时间、项目成本、项目可交
26、付物。l讨论（20分钟）lCoffeehouse:lProject statementlProject deliverableslProject objectiveslScope definitionSubdividing the major project deliverables into smaller,more manageable components Scope definition is critical to project success.Subdivision to:lImprove the accuracy of cost,duration,and resource es
27、timateslDefine a baseline for performance measurement and controllFacilitate clear responsibility assignmentslWork Breakdown Structure(WBS)A Deliverable-oriented grouping of project elements that organizes and defines the total scope of the projectlWork not in the WBS is outside the scope of the pro
28、jectlEach descending level represents an increasingly detailed definition of the project objectivelIdentifies all taskslFoundation on which the project is builtlHow to develop WBSWho has the key role?lProject manager,assisted by project team,is responsible for the development of WBSlTeam must be inv
29、olved in the developmentlWith all involved functional managers are forced to think through all aspects of the project.The process of WBS developmentA democratic process agreed by alll80-hour Rule(or Two-Weeks-Rule):Work packages require no more than eighty hours of work for completionAt the end of e
30、ach 80-hour-or-less period,the work package is reported simply as either completed or not completed.By means of such periodic check-ins,drifting of a project can be controlled early.lWork PackageA deliverable at the lowest level of the WBSDeliverable may be assigned to another project manager(a Subp
31、roject)May be further decomposed into activitieslWork PackageA task or set or tasks performed within a control account(Dodd)The unit of work required to complete a specific job such as a report,a design,a drawing,a piece of hardware,or a service which is within the responsibility of one operating un
32、it in the performing organization.Usually the lowest element shown in a work breakdown structure.lWBS DictionaryA publication that describes in detailed narrative form each element of a WBS,the elements products,work content,unique master code identifier and other pertinent informationlThere are man
33、y ways to do a WBSlNote that the example uses graphics and textlNote that a WBS may be text only,but probably not graphics onlylNote that the WBS usually covers many pageslConsumes timelMust be measurable(a deliverable)lSingle accountabilitylMust be able to be perceivedlStops decomposition of the WB
34、SlActivity definition is used to identify and document the specific activities that must be performed in order to produce the deliverables and sub-deliverables identified in the WBSSpecified accomplishmentPoint in timeDoes not consume time or resourcesExpresses a state(tested)Communications tool to
35、show digital progressAlso called milestoneslIn teams,discuss activities common to your projects.Each of these activities can gave a Deliverable and an Event.The activities are performed by members of your team,and sometimes these team members are in another city.lActivity sequencing is performed to
36、identify and document interactivity dependenciesl活动排序：验证和记录活动之间的依赖关系强关系：Mandatory/HardRelationship cannot be altered弱关系：Discretionary/SoftPersonal preferenceApproach,best practiceAlso called soft or preferred dependency外部关系：ExternalDeliveries/supplies to projectUsually also a hard dependencyTreated
37、as a constraintCommon,Default dependencyFS-Finish to Start 完成开始Special circumstanceSF-Start to Finish 开始完成FF-Finish to Finish 完成完成SS-Start to Start 开始开始Precedence Diagramming method(PDM)前导图Also Called Activity on Node(AON)Arrows can show lag/Lead timeMilestones are shown as activities with no timeSu
38、pported by softwareDefine ProductDevelop Project planBuild Product用结点表示活动（activity in the box,AIB)洗 车擦 车34活动框活动描述活动序号表示活动的顺序Arrow Diagramming Method(ADM)箭线图Also called activity on Arrow(AOA)Constraints shown as dummy activitiesShows all milestonesUsed when planning“back”in timeDefine Product Develop
39、Project planBuildProduct收集数据活动描述活动结束活动开始123洗车擦车事件用箭头表示活动l紧前事件、紧随事件l闭路 ABC123123lADMlDummy ActivitylTwo rules:Each Event has only one number,it does not exist two same number of eventEach activity is composed of the only one group of predecessor and successor events 三个房间粉刷的项目粉刷每一个房间都要求：准备房间以备粉刷粉刷屋顶和墙
40、漆贴面 假设有三个熟练工：一个做准备，一个粉刷屋顶和墙，一个漆贴面准备房间1粉刷房间1漆房间贴面1准备房间2粉刷房间2漆房间贴面2准备房间3粉刷房间3漆房间 贴面3124357689Flow Charts（流程图）Used for short term solutionsProblem solvingShows Servers,where to get informationHas decision pointsPurchaseSoftwareStartSelectSoftwareTestSoftwareENDSelecthardwarePurchasehardwareOrphaned Act
41、ivitiesBurstsSinks?l针对小组所拟项目：lWBS（25 minutes）lNETWORK（25 minutes）lDuration Evaluation（25 Minutes）lCPM（5minutes）lPlanning Review（10 minutes）lCommentarylReveals inter-dependencies of teamlDemonstrates end to end flowlFacilitates”What if”scenarioslDetermines projected completion timelDetermine crucial
42、elementslHelps to evaluate(team)performancelHi-lights Project Managers concernslSophisticated data made simplelCan be time consuming to set uplLarge overhead on small projectslFunctional ownership blurredlParallel activities tough to seelHard to envision resource conflictslEstimating GuidelineslEval
43、uate Each independentlylAssumenormal level of laborlAssumenormal Work weeklDisregard predetermined dates on first cutlUse consistent time unitslUse past actual datalLevel of effort activitiesDuration*Resource Loading=EffortlEstablish size of task/activityMeasures tasks in units,usually is difficult
44、to assesslEstimate amount of effort.Actual hands-on time in staff hourslEstimate actual availability as based on,Percent availability,Personal calendarOther factorslEstimate actual task duration.Account for availability factorsExpressed in days(or weeks)(Rough)order or magnitudelNo detailed engineer
45、ing datalAccuracy of+/-35%Approximate(top Down)EstimatelAnalogous EstimateslUses previous project datalAccuracy of+/-15%Definitive(Detailed Estimate）lFrom well defined engineering datalNormally Bottom uplAccuracy of+/-5%lThe accuracy/confidence of the estimates is inconsistent across the project pha
46、ses.lFor current phases/activities,there is detailed information,better estimates(and higher confidence)lFor activities later in the life cycle,there is limited information,thus the estimates are less accurate(approximate,ROM)lAs phases are completed,project information becomes clearer and some esti
47、mates can be revisitedlPrior to the requirement analysis phase there is limited information for estimating the design phase activities(there are approximate from previous projects).lWhen the requirements document is signed off,the projects scope is well defined,and estimates for the design phase bec
48、ome clearer(definitive).lAs engineering information becomes available,estimates should be revisitedlAs a minimum,estimates should be revisited at the end of each project phaselThis will provide an increase in the overall confidence of the plan by the team,and provide better targets/measurement for c
49、ompletion of the activitieslCPM Definition The longest duration path of sequential tasks or activities from the start of the project through the endlRemember:Anything which changes the duration of the task or activity on the CP changes the end date of the project.Any activity not on the critical pat
50、h is defined as non-critical and has lag or slack timelKeep high-risk,long,or research tasks off the critical path.lABC Office DesignslFrom our one programmer we ask:lWhat is your best Case(optimistic)Estimate-To:最乐观时间lWhat is your worst Case(pessimistic)Estimate-Top：最悲观时间lWhat is your most possible
