1、1PRODUCTION PLANNERTraining生產計劃員培訓ADM2Content內容nIntroduction介紹nOrganization組織nJob Description Quality品質工作內容說明nJob Description Cost成本工作內容說明nJob Description Delivery交期工作內容說明nJob Description Safety安全工作內容說明 nPerformance Measurement表現量度3Introduction介紹4Global Objective全球化目標 重組 ADM機構以支援未來發展和為 WCM的推行打下基礎.Re
2、structure ADM organization to support future growth and lay the foundation for WCM implementation5Training Objetive培訓Introduce the concepts,relationships and basic tools required to hold Production Planner position into a business unit organization 介紹概念,相互關係及基本所需的工具以支持商業單位架構中生產計劃員的地位6A World Class C
3、ompany世界級管理公司The term World Class Manufacturing Company is used to describe the best manufacturing companies in the world.世界級制造公司的條件是用於描述世界上最好的制造公司Generally includes:一般包含nA new approach to product quality.一個新的產品品質演進nJust in Time production techniques.即時生產技術nChange in the way the work force is manage
4、d.改變職工的管理方式nA flexible approach to customer requirements.靈活性的達成客的需求7World Class Manufacturing世界級製造商Education and TrainingERPTQMLPS 應用商業聚合系統來聯繫人員與制程.世界級製造商元素是:進行在職教育與培訓.持續改善公司的所有工作.通過革新產品及優質服務來開發公司的競爭優勢.8ERP(Enterprise Resources Planning)企業了資源計畫ERP排期實現排期實現成本成本品質品質數據構建數據構建每一個人用同樣信息方法方法策劃系統信息技術信息技術在線信息
5、交易ERPERPERPERPERPERPERPERP9Total Quality Management 全面品質管理TQM排期實現排期實現成本成本品質品質制程變異削減制程變異削減客戶為本客戶為本符合或超出用家的期望品質成本品質成本辨別所有有關品質的成本正在採取的行動正在採取的行動採用問題解決工具職工的參與持續改善制程TQMTQMTQMTQMTQMTQMTQMTQMTQMTQMTQM10LPS(Lean Production System)精簡生產系統LPS排期實現排期實現成本成本品質品質有系統地消除浪有系統地消除浪費費持續改善短周期製造短周期製造縮短周期全員參與全員參與授權LPSLPSLPSL
6、PSLPSLPSLPSLPS11CHANGE IS A CHALLENGE變更是一項挑戰 is a matter of common interest and survival.是關係到共同利益與生存的 12Our background and parameters have changed and we be ready to satisfy the demands of our customers.我們所處的時代與條件已改變，我們必須有充分的準備去滿足客戶的需求。13 STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS成功之策略nAll successfull Companies have si
7、mple lines of command that:所有成功的公司都有簡明的要求用於nPromote team work 促進團隊精神nDefine responsibilities and scopes 界定職責與範疇nAssign specific activities for the personnel.n委派明確的活動給予職員14nWe all know that it might be difficult to,because old habits and beliefs could hold us back,but.我們都知道變更是痛苦的，因為舊習慣和信仰令人們躊躇，但是.15O
8、rganization組織 162nd Level Organization第二階層的組織17Production SupervisorProgrammerQuality EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerManufacturing EnginneerDie CastingBU ManagerIndustrial Eng&Cont Improv MgrQualityManagerOperations DirectorEngineering DirectorMaterials DirectorHuman Resources DirectorFinance Directo
9、rManaging DirectorProduction SupervisorProgrammerQuality EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerManufacturing EnginneerPlasticsBU ManagerProduction SupervisorProgrammerQuality EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerManufacturing EnginneerPunch PressBU ManagerProduction SupervisorProgrammerQuality EnginneerProduct Eng
10、inneerCont Improv EnginneerManufacturing EnginneerGarment CareBU ManagerProduction SupervisorProgrammerQuality EnginneerProduct EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerManufacturing EnginneerFood PreparationBU ManagerProduction SupervisorProgrammerQuality EnginneerProduct EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerManufac
11、turing EnginneerToaster OvensBU ManagerOperations Organizations ChartQueretaro18Die CastingBU ManagerOperations DirectorMaterials DirectorManaging DirectorPlasticsBU ManagerPunch PressBU ManagerGarment CareBU ManagerFood PreparationBU ManagerToaster OvensBU ManagerSupporting Departments Functional S
12、tructureQueretaroCont Improv EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerCont Improv EnginneerProduct EnginneerProduct EnginneerProduct EnginneerQuality EnginneerProgrammerQuality EnginneerProgrammerQuality EnginneerProgrammerQuality EnginneerProgramm
13、erQuality EnginneerProgrammerQuality EnginneerProgrammerIndustrial Eng&Cont Improv MgrFinance DirectorHuman Resources DirectorQualityManagerEngineering DirectorPurchasing&Warehouse MgrMaterial Traffic ManagerMaster SchedulerDesign ManagerPlant Engineering MgrTool Room ManagerSQA ManagerLab Superviso
14、rProcess DocumentationProduct Audit ManagerLabor Relations ManagerPersonnel&Training MgrIndustrial Safety SupevisorEnvironment Control SupervisorMedical ServicesTreasury ManagerLaw&Tax ManagerAccounting ManagerCost Manager19The ERP System 企業資源計劃系統20The ERP System企業資源計劃系統nMaterials management物料管理nFor
15、ecasting訂單預測nMaster Planning總排期nMRP物料需求計劃nCapacity Management產能管理nInventory Management庫存管理nQuality Management&Purchasing 品質管理及採購nJIT Manufacturing即時生產製造nQuality品質21Forecasting定單預測nFactors influencing demand影響需求的因素nBasic demand patterns基本需求模式 nBasic principles of forecasting預測的基本原則nPrinciples of data
16、 collection資料收集原則nBasic forecasting techniques基本預測技巧nSeasonality季節性nSources and types of forecast error 預測誤差的來源及類型 22Planning and Control Hierarchy計劃及管理層次At each level,there are three questions:在每一個階段都有三個問題o What are the priorities?甚是優先o What capacity is available?有甚產能？o How can differences be resol
17、ved?如何解決差距產品計劃(PP)資源需求計劃(RRP)總生產排期(MPS)物料需 求計劃優先權管理技術產能管理技術生產進度控(PAC)輸入/輸出控制操作次序產能需求計劃(CRP)粗略產能計劃(RCCP)23Factors Influencing Demand 影響需求的因素nGeneral business and economic conditions一般商業及經濟條件nCompetitive factors競爭因素nMarket trends市場趨式nFirms own plans公司內部計劃n _n _24Sources of Demand需求的來源All sources of de
18、mand must be identified 所有需求的來源必須是確認的nCustomers客nSpare parts配件nPromotion推廣nIntracompany企業之間nOther其他25Characteristics of Demand 需求的特性26Demand Patterns需求型態Stable versus dynamic穩定對比動態nStable demand retains same general shape over time穩定的需求會逐漸行成一個趨勢nDynamic demand tends to be erratic 動態的需求往往是不穩定的27Deman
19、d Patterns需求形態Dependent versus independent非獨立對比與獨立nOnly independent demand needs to be forecast只有獨立需求需要去預測nDependent demand should never be forecast非獨立性需求不需要預測 28What Should Be Forecast?什麼需要預測Business plan:商業計劃 Market direction 市場趨勢 2 to 10 years 二到十年 Production plan:生產計劃 Product families 產品系列 1 to
20、3 years 一到三年 Master production schedule:總生產排期 Item detail 項目細節 Months 每月 29Principles of Forecasting預測的原則Forecasts預測nAre almost always wrong錯誤是經常發生的nShould include an estimate of error 應該包含預估的誤差nAre more accurate for groups of products對產品系列來說應該比較準確nAre more accurate for nearer periods of time時間越近應該也
21、越準確30Data Preparation and Collection數據準備及收集nRecord data in terms needed for the forecast記錄預測所需的資料nRecord circumstances relating to the data紀錄收集資料時的環境nRecord demand separately for different customer groups對不同的客戶分別記錄其需求31Qualitative Techniques量化方法nAre based on intuition and informed opinion是根據直覺及聽到的意見
22、nTend to be subjective趨向主觀nAre used for business planning and forecasting for new products 是用於商業計劃及新產品預測nAre used for medium-term to long-term forecasting是用於中期及長期預測32Quantitative Techniques量化方法nBased on historical data usually available in the company 是基於公司通常可利用的歷史資料nAssume future will repeat past 假
23、設未來也會再發生33Extrinsic Techniques外存方法nBased on external indicators是根據外在的指標nUseful in forecasting total company demand or demand for families of products用於預測公司的總需求和產品系列需求34Intrinsic Quantitative Techniques內存量化方法Month月份月份 Sales銷售額銷售額 January一月 92 February二月 83 March三月 66 April四月 74 May五月 75 June六月 84 Jul
24、y七月 84 August八月 81 September九月 75 October十月 63 November十一月 91 December十二月 84 January一月?35Moving Averages移動平均數Forecast sales as an average of past months 以過去數月的平均數當作是銷售預測An average of the past 3 months:前三個月的平均數If January sales are 90,forecast for February:如果一月份銷售額是90,二月的預測是:(91+84+90)3=January foreca
25、st=(63+91+84)3=36Moving Average Forecasting 移動平均數預測nIt can be used to filter out random variation用於過濾隨機的變化nLonger periods smooth out random variation長期消除隨機的變化nIf a trend exists,it is hard to detect 比較難偵測趨勢走向nCalculations can be cumbersome when dealing with more periods 當面對較多的時段,計算變得比較困難37Problem問題1.
26、Graph the demand using next slide data 利用下一頁資料將需求做成圖表2.What is your best guess for demand for month 7?七月最好的預測需求是什麼?週期需 求38Problem問題MonthDemandThree-MonthTotalNext MonthForecast11022 913 9541055 946101月份需求三個月合計下月預測39Problem(solution)問題(答案)月份 Month 需求 Demand Three-Month Total三個月合計 Next Month Forecast下
27、月預測 1 102 2 91 3 95 288 96 4 105 291 97 5 94 294 98 6 101 300 100 40Exponential Smoothing指數調平法nProvides a routine method of updating item forecasts提供定時更新預測的方法nWorks well for stable items對穩定的產品十分有效nIs satisfactory for short-range forecasts對短期的預測效果較好nDetects trends,but lags them 能夠偵測趨勢走向,但是會落後於趨勢41Sea
28、sonality季節性nMeasures the amount of seasonal variation of demand for a product對一個產品計算其季節性需求的數量nRelates the average demand in a particular period to the average demand for all periods 一個特別時段的平均需求和整個時段的平均需求比較Seasonal index=Period average salesAverage sales for all periods季節性指數季度平均銷售全部季度的平均銷售42Developin
29、g SeasonalSales Indexes草擬季節性銷售指數QuarterAverage Quarterly Sales/100Seasonal Index1128/100=1.282102/100=1.02375/100=0.75495/100=0.95 Total=4.00Average sales for all quarters=4004=100 unitsSales HistoryYearQuarterTotal123411221088190401213010073963993132 987199400Average1281027595400銷售資料年季度合計平均全部季度平均銷售
30、單位季節性指數平均每季銷售季43Seasonal Sales季節性銷售全部季度的平均銷售量季度銷量時間銷量44Tracking the Forecast預測跟蹤Forecasts are almost always wrong Why track the forecast?預測通常是錯誤的,為什麼要跟蹤預測nTo plan around the error in the futuren以現時誤差的幅度來調節預測nTo measure actual demand versus forecasts量度實際的需求對比於預測nTo improve our forecasting methods 改進我
31、們的預測方法45Forecasts Can Be Wrong in Two Ways預測誤差可由兩方面引起Bias:Cumulative sales may not be the same as forecast偏差:累計銷售額可能和預測並不相同Bias exists since the cumulative variation is not zero 偏差的存在是因為累計變化並非為零MonthForecastActualVariation1100 90102100125+253100120+204100125+255100120+206100110+10Total600690+90月份預測實
32、際變化46Forecasts Can Be Wrong in Two Ways預測誤差可由兩方面引起MonthForecastActualVariation11,0001,050+5021,000 9406031,000 9802041,0001,040+4051,0001,030+3061,000 96040Total6,0006,000 0Random variation:Sales will vary plus and minus about the average銷售一般在平均值的上或下變動There is no bias,but there is random variation e
33、ach month即使沒有偏差,每個月都會有隨機變化月份預測實際變化47The ERP System企業資源計劃系統nMaterials management物料管理nForecasting定單預測nMaster Planning總排期nMRP物料需求計畫nCapacity Management產能管理nInventory Management庫存管理nQuality Management&Purchasing 品質管理和採購nJIT Manufacturing即時生產製造nQuality品質48Master Planning總排期nLevel production plan for make
34、-to-stock products平衡按倉存生產的生產計劃nRelationship of resource requirements planning to production planning 資源需求計劃對生產計劃的相互關係nPurpose of a master production schedule(MPS)and relationship to the production plan總生產排期的作用以及和生產計劃的關係nMPS and rough-cut capacity plan 總生產排期和粗略產能計畫nRelationship of the MPS to sales an
35、d the ability to promise delivery 總生產排期和銷售以及承諾交貨期的能力之間的相互關係49Planning and Control計劃及控制At each level we must answer these questions:在每個層次我們必須回答這些問題oWhat are the demand priorities?什麼是需求優先順序?oWhat capacity is required?需要什麼樣的產能?oWhat capacity is available?有多少產能可以運用?商業計劃生產計劃總生產排期物料需求計劃生產控制活動與採購計劃執行50Maki
36、ng the Production Plan 擬定生產計畫Definition:定義.setting the overall levels of manufacturing output.決定整體的生產量.APICS Dictionary 字典Production planning is concerned with生產計劃是針對nPlanning for each product group每個產品系列的計畫nMeeting desired inventory levels符合庫存水平需求 nDetermining resources needed決定所需要的資源nComparing wit
37、h available resources和可利用的資源比較51Typical Characteristics典型的特徵n 12-month time horizonn 十二個月的時間圖n Fluctuating or seasonal demandn 變動和季節性需求n Plan made for product families n 以產品系列作計畫n Variety of management objectives n 管理目標的變化52Developing a Production Plan 發展生產計畫Three basic strategies can be used:有三個基本策
38、略可以運用nMatch/chase配合/追趕nLevel平均分配nCombination/hybrid結合/混合53Chase Strategy追趕策略生產銷售54Chase Strategy追趕策略Advantages:優點nStable inventory庫存穩定nVaried production to meet sales requirements 各樣的生產符合銷售需求Disadvantages:缺點nCosts of hiring,training,overtime,and extra shifts人工,培訓,加班,額外的班次工作成本nCosts of layoffs and im
39、pact on employee morale 解雇以及影響雇員士氣的成本nPossible unavailability of needed work skills 可能得不到所需要的工作技能nMaximum capacity needed需要最大的產能55Level Production Strategy 平均分佈生產策略56Level Production Strategy 平均分佈生產策略Advantage:優點nSmooth,level production avoids costs of demand matching 穩定平均的生產可避免需求匹配而產生的成本Disadvantag
40、e:缺點nBuildup of inventory增加庫存57Combination Strategy混合式策略58Combination Strategy混合式策略nProduces at or close to full capacity for some part of the cycle 部份零件在某個週期時段會以最大或接近最大產能生產nProduces at a lower rate(or does not produce)during the rest of the cycle 在其餘的時段生產量較低（或停產）nMakes use of available capacity,yet
41、 limits inventory buildup and inventory carrying costs 儘量利用產能,但限制庫存增長,庫存會帶來成本增加59Make-to-Stock Production Plan按庫存生產計劃Goods are put into inventory and sold from inventory將成品入庫存而後由庫存進行銷售Used when:在下述狀況下採用o Demand is constant and predictable 穩定且可預期的需求狀況o Only a few product options exist 只有幾種產品可以選擇o Del
42、ivery times are shorter than time needed to make the product 交貨期小於產品制造期60Make-to-Stock Production Plan按庫存計劃生產Information needed所需的資訊nForecast by time period for the planning horizon在計劃時間範圍內以時間階段做預測nOpening inventory開始庫存nDesired ending inventory最終所需庫存61Level Production Plan平均分佈生產Period12345TotalForec
43、ast demand5560656060ProductionEnding inventory例子:開始結存=50 單位最終結存 =40 單位每週期生產數量 =單位 第1週期之最後結存=開始倉存+生產數量-需求預測=_ +_ _=_ 單位5生產所需總數=總預測需求+最終結存-開始倉存 =_ +_ _ =_ 單位62Level Production Plan平均分佈生產(solution)(答案)例子:開始結存=50 單位最終結存 =40 單位每週期生產數量 =單位 第1週期之最後結存=開始倉存+生產數量-需求預測=50 +58 55=53 單位5週期 1 2 3 4 5 合計 需求預測 55 6
44、0 65 60 60 300 生產數量 58 58 58 58 58 290 最終結存 53 51 44 42 40 生產所需總數=總預測需求+最終結存-開始倉存 =300 +40 50 =290 單位290=5863Problem問題Opening inventory開始庫存 =400 unitsProduction生產量 =1,300 unitsDemand需求量 =1,100 unitsEnding inventory=opening inventory+production demand 最終庫存開始庫存生產量需求What will the ending inventory be?最終
45、庫存將會是多少？64Problem(solution)問題(答案)Opening inventory開始庫存 =400 unitsProduction生產量 =1,300 unitsDemand 需求量 =1,100 unitsEnding inventory=opening inventory+production demand 最終庫存開始庫存生產量需求量400+1,300 1,100=600 units65Problem問題Opening inventory 開始倉存=250 unitsMonth 月份 Jan一月 Feb二月 Mar三月 Apr四月 May五月 June六月 Forec
46、ast 預測量 400 450 600 750 500 400 Planned production 計劃生產 500 500 500 500 500 500 Planned inventory 計劃倉存 A production line is to run at 500 units per month.Opening inventoryIs 250 units,and sales are forecast as shown.Calculate the expectedPlanned inventory for each month.一條生產線每月可以生產500個單位產品，初始庫存量是250
47、,預測銷售在表格中己顯示出,請計算每一個月的計劃庫存數66Problem(solution)問題(答案)Opening inventory 開始倉存=250 unitsMonth 月份 Jan一月 Feb二月 Mar三月 Apr四月 May五月 June六月 Forecast 預測量 400 450 600 750 500 400 Planned production計劃生產 500 500 500 500 500 500 Planned inventory計劃庫存 350 400 300 50 50 150 67Problem問題 A company wants to develop a l
48、evel production plan for a family ofProducts.The opening inventory is 200 units,and an increase to 260Units is expected by the end of the plan.The demand for each periodIs given below.How much should the company produce each period,And what will be the ending inventory in each period?一間公司要對產品系列設立平均生
49、產計劃,初始庫存是200,計劃結束時會增加到260,每一個時段的需求己經列明,那麼每個週期應生產多少?每個週期的最終庫存又是多少?Total planned production 總計劃生產數Period production 週期生產數Period 週期 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Forecast 預測量 200 240 260 280 240 220 1440 Planned production 計劃生產 250 250 250 250 250 250 1500 Planned inventory計劃庫存 200 68Problem(solution)問題(答案)Total p
50、lanned production 總計劃生產量=1,440+260 200=1,500 unitsPeriod production 平均週期生產量=1,500/6=250 unitsPeriod 週期 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Forecast 預測量 200 240 260 280 240 220 1440 Planned production 計劃生產 250 250 250 250 250 250 1500 Planned inventory計劃庫存 200 250 260 250 220 230 260 69Chase Strategy追趕策略Period 週期 1 2
