1、Slides prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview 2-2 Preview The largest trading partners of the U.S. Gravity model（引力模型）: influence of an economys size on trade distance and other factors that influent trade Borders and t
2、rade agreements(边界和贸易协定) Globalization(全球化): then and now Changing composition of trade(正在演变的贸易模式) Service outsourcing(服务外包) 2-3 Who Trades with Whom(谁和谁贸易)? The largest trading partners of the U.S. The 5 largest trading partners with the U.S. in 2006 were Canada, China, Mexico, Japan and Germany. T
3、he total value imports from and exports to Canada in 2006 was about $500 billion dollars. The largest(top) 10 trading partners with the U.S. accounted for 68% of the value of U.S. trade in 2006. 2-4 Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. trademe
4、asured as the sum of imports and exportsis mostly with 10 major partners. These 10 economies(top 10 trading partners) accounted for 68 percent of the value of U.S. trade in 2006. 2-5 Size Matters: The Gravity Model (规模问题：引力模型) The top 3 trading partners with the U.S. are Canada, China, Mexico. 3 of
5、the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2006 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, UK, and France. Why does the U.S. trade most with these European countries and not other European countries? These countries have the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe(they are the thr
6、ee largest European Economies). 2-6 Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission The scatter of points clustered around the dotted 45-degree line, which means that, each countrys share of U.S. t
7、rade with Europe was roughly equal to that countrys share of European GDP. That is, the value of trade between any two countries is proportional to the two countries GDPs. 分布在45度线周围的散点 表明，美国与欧洲某一国家 之间的贸易规模与两国的经 济规模成正比。 2-7 Size Matters: The Gravity Model (cont.) In fact, the size of an economy is di
8、rectly related to the volume of imports and exports. (贸易规模与经济规模直接相关) The trade between any two economies is larger, the larger is either economy. Larger economies produce more goods and services, so they have more to sell in the export market. Larger economies generate more income from the goods and
9、 services sold, so people are able to buy more imports. 2-8 The Gravity Model In its basic form, the gravity model assumes that only size and distance(经济规模和距离) are important for trade in the following way: Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij Where Tij is the value of trade between country i and country j， A is a
10、 constant，Yi the GDP of country i，Yj is the GDP of country j，Dij is the distance between country i and country j. The value of trade between any two countries is proportional to the two countries GDPs, and diminishes with the distance between the two countries. 两国之间的贸易规模与经济规模成正比，与两国之间的 距离成反比。 2-9 Th
11、e Gravity Model (cont.) In a slightly more general form, the gravity model that is commonly estimated is Tij = A x Yia x Yjb /Dijc where a, b, and c are allowed to differ from 1. This equation says that the three things determine the volume of trade between two countries are the size of the two coun
12、tries GDPs and the distance between the countries, without specifically as assuming that（放松 了假设） trade is proportional to the two GDPs and inversely proportional to distance. 2-10 The Gravity Model (cont.) u Distance(距离) between markets increases costs of transportation and services, and therefore t
13、he cost of imports and exports. There is a strong negative effect of distance on international trade. Distance may also influence personal contact and communication, which may influence trade. Ex. The United States North American neighbors trade so much with U.S. than its European partners. 2-11 The
14、 Gravity Model (cont.) Other things besides size of economy and distance matter for trade: 1. Cultural affinity(文化相似度): if two countries have cultural ties, it is likely that they also have strong economic ties. uBecause of cultural affinity, Ireland trade considerably more with the U.S. than a grav
15、ity model predicted. 2. Geography(地理位置): ocean harbors and a lack of mountain barriers make transportation and trade easier. uRotterdam in Netherlands, Antwerp in Belgium are the famous ports in Europe). 2-12 The Gravity Model (cont.) 3. Borders(边界): crossing borders involves formalities (手续) that t
16、ake time and perhaps monetary costs like tariffs. 4. Trade Agreement(贸易协定): if a trade agreement is effective, it should lead to significantly more trade among its partners given their GDPs and distance from one another. 5. Multinational corporations (跨国公司) :corporations spread across different nati
17、ons import and export many goods between their divisions. 2-13 Distance,Barriers(壁垒),and Borders Why do the United States North American neighbors trade so much more with the United States than its European partners? Estimates of the effect of distance from the gravity model predict that a 1% increa
18、se in the distance between countries is associated with a decrease in the volume of trade of 0.7% to 1%. Besides distance, borders increase the cost and time needed to trade. 2-14 Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, European Commission The Uni
19、ted States does markedly more trade with its neighbors than it does with European economies of the same size. 美国与其邻国的贸易 量明显大于其和相同 大小的欧洲经济体的 贸易量。 2-15 Distance,Barriers,and Borders(cont.) Trade agreements between countries are intended to reduce the formalities and tariffs needed to cross borders, an
20、d therefore to increase trade. The U.S. signed a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada in 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA，北美自由贸易协定). Because of NAFTA and because Mexico and Canada are close to the U.S., the amount of trade between the U.S. and its northern neighbors as a f
21、raction of GDP is larger than between the U.S. and European countries. 2-16 Distance,Barriers,and Borders(cont.) Yet even with a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada, which use a common language, the border between these countries still seems to be associated with a reduction in trade. E
22、x. The trade between British Columbia and a Canadian province is much larger than trade with an equally distant U.S. state. That is, borders have large negative effect on trade(边 界对贸易具有负面效应). 2-17 Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia 2-18 Table 2-3: Trade wit
23、h British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996 加拿大其他省与英属哥伦比亚省之间的贸易额随着距离的增加而减少； 美国各州与加拿大哥伦比亚省之间的贸易额也随着距离的增加而减少； 加拿大英属哥伦比亚省与国内各省之间的贸易都远大于它同美国距离 相当的州的贸易（WHY?）。 2-19 Has the World Become “Smaller”? The negative effect of distance on trade according to the gravity models is significant, but it has grown sma
24、ller (距离对贸易的影响越来越小)over time due to modern transportation and communication. For example, the internet makes instant and almost free communication possible between people thousands of miles distant, while jet transport allows quick physical access to all parts of the globe. Progress in technologies
25、have increased trade. But history has shown that political factors, such as wars, can change trade patterns much more than innovations in transportation and communication. (战争等政治因素制约着贸易的发展) 2-20 Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of International Trade Since 1830 Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phill
26、ipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999). 2-21 Has the World Become “Smaller”? (cont.) Two world wars and the Great Depression of the 1930s did a great deal to depress world trad
27、e. Only in the last few decades has international trade become more important to the British economy than it was in 1910. Even today, international trade is less important to the U.S. than it was to the UK before 1910. The world got smaller between 1830 and 1914, but it got bigger again for much of
28、the 20th century. 2-22 The Changing Composition of Trade (正在演变的贸易模式) What kinds of products do nations currently trade, and how does this composition compare to trade in the past? Today, most of the volume of trade is in manufactured products(制造品) such as automobiles, computers, clothing and machine
29、ry. Services(服务) such as shipping, insurance, legal fees, and spending by tourists account for 20% of the volume of trade. Mineral products (矿产品)(ex., petroleum, coal, copper) and agricultural products are a relatively small part of trade. 2-23 Fig. 2-6: The Composition of World Trade, 2005 Source:
30、World Trade Organization Most world trade is in manufactured goods, but minerals mainly oilremain important. Services of various kinds are widely expected to become more important in the future. 2-24 Changing Composition of Trade (cont.) In the past, a large fraction of the volume of trade came from
31、 agricultural and mineral products. In 1910, Britain mainly imported agricultural and mineral products, although manufactured products still represented most of the volume of exports. In 1910, the U.S. mainly imported and exported agricultural products and mineral products. In 2002, manufactured pro
32、ducts made up most of the volume of imports and exports for both countries. 2-25 Table 2-4: Manufactured Goods as a Percent of Merchandise Trade 2-26 Changing Composition of Trade (cont.) Low and middle-income countries have also changed the composition of their trade. In 2001, about 65% of exports
33、from low and middle-income countries were manufactured products, and only 10% of exports were agricultural products. In 1960, about 58% of exports from low and middle-income countries were agricultural products and only 12% of exports were manufactured products. 2-27 Fig. 2-7: The Changing Compositi
34、on of Developing-Country Exports Source: United Nations Council on Trade and Development Over the past 40 years, the exports of developing countries have shifted toward manufactures. 2-28 Service Outsourcing(服务外包) Service outsourcing occurs when a firm that provides services within a country moves i
35、ts operations to a foreign location.(服务外包是指 一个企业将原本由自己提供的服务转移给国外 供应商。) Service outsourcing can occur for services that can be performed and transmitted electronically. For example, a firm may move its customer service centers whose telephone calls can be transmitted electronically to foreign locatio
36、n. 2-29 Service Outsourcing (cont.) Service outsourcing is currently not a significant part of trade, but about 19% of service jobs are “tradable” and thus have the potential to be outsourced. In comparison, about 12% of manufacturing jobs are “tradable(可贸易)” and thus have the potential to be outsou
37、rced. Most jobs, however, are non-tradable(不可贸易) because they need to be done close to the customer, example haircut. 2-30 Fig. 2-8: Tradable Industries Share of Employment Source: J. Bradford Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, “Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing,
38、” Peterson Institute of Economics Working Paper 5-09, May 2005 Estimated based on trade with the United States suggests that in long run, trade in services may become the most important component of world trade. 根据美国国内的贸易统计， 服务业贸易有可能最终超 过制造业贸易。 2-31 Summary 1. The gravity model predicts that the vol
39、ume of trade is directly related to the GDP of each trading partner and is inversely related to the distance between them. 2. Besides the size of economy and distance, culture, geography, free trade agreement, multinational corporations, and the existence of borders influence trade. 2-32 Summary (co
40、nt.) 3. Modern transportation and communication have increased trade, but political factors have depressed trade more in history. 4.Today, most trade is in manufactured goods, while agricultural and mineral products made up most of trade in history. 5.In recent years, services in trade played an important role in world trade, and in long run, trade in services may become the most important part of world trade. Homework Problem 4 in p.25. 2-33
