1、阿姆斯阿姆斯特特丹丹（荷）（荷）布雷斯特布雷斯特（法）（法）毫米毫米毫米毫米毫米毫米年年希维诺乌伊希切（波）希维诺乌伊希切（波）Sea-Level Rise at New York City1850 to 2100Sea-level index points from Peninsular Malaysia-8-404802000400060008000Altitude to MSL (m)14C years BPEast Coast of Peninsular MalaysiaWest Coast of Peninsular MalaysiaData points from Kamaludi
2、n (2001)-25.0-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.00200040006000800010000Sea-level index points from East Guangdong of China20 N to 22 NAround 7000 cal. yr BP, sea level reached the present-day height.A higher highstand of 0.5m is recorded for 6000-4000 cal. yr BP.氧同位素氧同位素18每变每变0.1，全球海平面，全球海平面相应升降相应升降10m现在查明，第四纪
3、有将近现在查明，第四纪有将近三十次冰期，早期四万年一次，三十次冰期，早期四万年一次，晚期十万年一次，而阿尔卑斯晚期十万年一次，而阿尔卑斯“四大冰期四大冰期”只是其中的最强者。只是其中的最强者。南沙南沙1143站氧同位素剖面站氧同位素剖面上上: 浮游浮游 下：下： 底栖底栖里斯里斯明德明德群智群智中更新世革命中更新世革命玉玉木木相对海平面上升的组成要素相对海平面上升的组成要素 No.PeriodGround subsidence rate (mm/a)AverageMax. 11921-194824.042.021949-195640.096.031957-1961110.0287.041962
4、-196559.0164.051966-19922.519.361993-199810.0-15.0 SRES: Sea-Level Rise ScenariosHadCM3 Model - Climate Sensitivity Constant我国海平面上升趋势明显我国海平面上升趋势明显近五十年海平面明显上升，平均上升速率为每年近五十年海平面明显上升，平均上升速率为每年2.6毫米。近毫米。近几年上升速率加快几年上升速率加快未来还将继续升高。预测未来未来还将继续升高。预测未来100年上升幅度年上升幅度28-68厘米厘米SENSITIVE SYSTEMSPopulated deltasSmal
5、l islands, especially atollsCoastal ecosystemswetland degradation; coastal erosionIncreasing storm activitySaltwater intrusionCoastal Megacities (8 million people) Forecast for 2010Coastal Ecosystems角滦滦河洲三河D05km图 例1998年海岸线1965年海岸线1980年海岸线Coastal Wetland LossesOnly considers sea-level riseVulnerable
6、RegionsMid estimate in the 2080sPeople at risk (million)在海平面上升在海平面上升30cm、65cm 和和100cm情况下，情况下，中国主要脆弱区被淹没的面积（杜碧兰，中国主要脆弱区被淹没的面积（杜碧兰，1997）Concluding RemarksSea-level rise could be a serious problem in coastal zones, but the uncertainties are large;Impacts are strongly influenced by human activities and
7、choices;Reducing greenhouse gas emissions could avoid some sea-level rise impacts, but only delay others;An unquantified benefit of mitigation is to reduce the risk of large/abrupt sea-level rises;Much of the benefits of mitigation for coastal zones lie in the 22nd Century and beyond but how to eval
8、uate and communicate?Coastal zones need adaptation, within the context of wider coastal management;Small islands have special adaptation needs;Some useful further research: Full assessment of the range of possible impacts, including low probability/high impact events; Improved top-down tools to quantify and explore and map vulnerable hotspots; The adaptation process in coastal zones as this remains a major gap in our understanding; other climate change, particularly changing storm conditions.The Co-Evolving Coastal System
