1、Text Can bad luck be explained?Can bad luck be explained?1 Toast always lands butter side down.It always rains on bank holidays.You never win the lottery,but other people you know seem to.Do you ever get the impression that you were born unlucky?Even the most rational person can be convinced at time
2、s that there is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time.We all like to believe that Murphys Law is true(“if it can go wrong,it will”).Text 2 Part of the explanation for bad luck is mathematical,but part is psychological.Indeed there is a very close connection between people
3、s perception of bad luck and interesting coincidences.3 For example,take the belief that“bad things always happen in threes”(just like buses.!)This popular notion would be unlikely to stand the scrutiny of any scientific study,but it must have some basis in experience,otherwise the phrase would neve
4、r have arisen in the first place.What might be the rational explanation?Text 4 The first question is“what is bad?”5 Some things are only marginally bad,for example the train arriving five minutes late.Some are extremely bad,such as failing an exam or being sacked.So badness is much better represente
5、d as being on a spectrum rather than something which is there or not there.Text 6 A particular event may only be a misfortune because of the circumstances around it.The train arriving five minutes late is a neutral event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article while you w
6、ait.It is bad if you are late for an important meeting.Text 7 When it comes to bad things happening in threes,what may be most important of all is the duration and memorability of the first event.Take a burst pipe while you are away on holiday,for example.It may take less than an hour to flood the h
7、ouse,but this one bad event can remain alive and kicking for many months,with the cleaning up operation and the debate with your insurers acting as constant reminders of the original event.Text 8 The longer the first bad event sticks in the front of your mind,the more opportunities you will have to
8、experience two more bad events.A month later someone bumps the back of your car and a week after that you lose your wedding ring.The mind which is already on a low from the first event will quickly leap to connect the subsequent misfortunes as part of the series.Text It wouldnt matter that there cou
9、ld be a two-month timescale over which everything happened.By the time you have recovered from the water damage you are actively looking out for the next disaster.The timescale has been extended as long as is necessary to confirm the original prophecy.Text 9 As with coincidences,in bad luck there is
10、 a tendency to look for the examples which confirm the theory,and ignore those which dont(because they are less interesting).Single bad events happen all the time.That alone should be enough to disprove the theory.Bad things also come in twos.But it is more likely that a friend will tell you“three b
11、ad things have happened to me,isnt that typical”than“only two bad things have happened to me,which just proves that the theory doesnt work”.After all,the latter is tempting fate!Text 10 There is,however,at least one rational reason why bad events might cluster together.It is related to probability a
12、nd independence.Unlucky events are not always independent of each other.Anybody who is made redundant is bound to suffer some depression.That will lower the bodys defences,making the person vulnerable to illness,and also making them less alert and responsive(so they may be more likely to drop a prec
13、ious vase,for example).Text So while the probability of being made redundant on any particular day and the probability of being sick may both be small,the chance of both occurring is almost certainly higher than the product of the two probabilities.Map reading misfortunes11 So much for the general i
14、ncidents of bad luck which crop up in life.Lets get on to a specific one that everyone has encountered.Text 12 You are off to visit a friend who lives at the other end of the city.You look up the road in the street atlas,and discover that it is right on the edge of the page.This means that finding t
15、he precise route becomes a chore of flicking backwards and forwards from one page to the next.Either the road is half on one page and half on the other,or its spread across the fold in the middle of the book.And if its an ordnance survey map,then your destination is at just the point where you folde
16、d the map over.Text 13 It doesnt seem fair.After all a map only has a tiny bit of“edge”but plenty of“middle”in which your destination could be situated.Or has it?In fact the chance of picking a destination which is close to the edge of the map is a lot higher than you might expect.Text 14 Take a loo
17、k at the map in the diagram.You will have a problem if your destination is anywhere in the shaded area marked on the map.This shaded area is just 1 cm into the page all the way around.It looks insignificant.However,the shaded area adds up to 56 cm2.Text That represents 28 per cent of the area of the
18、 whole page of the map,which means that any specific point that you are seeking on this map has a 28 per cent chance(thats nearly one in three)of being in an awkward position within 1 cm of the edge of the page.And if you regard being within 2 cm of the edge of the page as being awkward,the chance o
19、f ill-fortune climbs to 52 per cent.In other words,you might expect this misfortune to occur on almost every other journey.Text 15 As in most bad luck stories,you forget about the number of times the road doesnt land awkwardly and remember the times it does,and in this case the chance of a bad resul
20、t is so high that before long you are bound to be cursing your misfortune,or the maps printer,or both.This,incidentally,is why many modern road maps allow significant overlaps between adjacent map pages.In a good road atlas,at least 30 per cent of the page is duplicated elsewhere.Text The lights are
21、 always red when Im in a hurry16 One of the best examples of selective memory where an unfair comparison is made between good and bad is in the relative frequency of red and green lights on a journey.For once,the perception of“I always seem to get red lights when Im in a hurry”is true and verifiable
22、.Text To simplify the situation,think of a traffic light as being like tossing a coin,with a 50 per cent chance of being red,and 50 per cent of being green.(In fact most traffic lights spend more time on red).If you encounter six traffic lights on a journey,then you are no more likely to escape a re
23、d light than you are to toss six consecutive heads,the chance of which is 1 in 64.Text 17 Red lights come up just as often when the driver is not in a hurry;its just that the disadvantage of the red light is considerably less if time is not critical.The false part of the perception is that red light
24、s happen more than green lights.Text The reason for this is simply that a driver has more time to think about a red light than a green light,because while the latter is gone in seconds and indeed is an experience no different from just driving along the open road the red light forces a change of beh
25、aviour,a moment of exertion and stress,and then a deprivation of freedom for a minute or so.Red lights stick in the mind,while green lights are instantly forgotten.Text 生活中的倒霉事能解释吗？生活中的倒霉事能解释吗？1 每次吐司掉到地上总是抹了黄油的那一面贴地。每逢公假日必定下雨。你买彩票从来没中过大奖,但是你认识的人里似乎有人你有没有觉得自己生来就是个倒霉蛋？即使是最理智的人有时候也会对此深信不疑，认为冥冥之中有一种力量让他
26、们在最糟糕的时期里灾祸连连。我们都愿意相信墨菲定律是对的（“该出错的，终将出错”）。Text 2 人之所以走背运，部分是概率的问题,部分是心理上的问题。的确，人们对背运的感知和一些有意思的巧合之间有着紧密的联系。3 就拿“坏事成三”这种想法来说吧（就像等公交车一样，要么不来，要么一下来三辆！）。这种流传甚广的观念可能根本经不起科学的检验，但是它必定有一些现实的依据,不然的话也不会有这么个说法了。那么，什么样的解释才是合理的呢？Text 4 我们要考虑的第一个问题是“什么是坏事？”5 有些事情只是稍稍有点不好，比如火车要晚点五分钟。有些事情则是糟糕透顶，比如考试不及格，或是被炒鱿鱼了。所以我们更
27、应该把事情的好坏看成是一个程度的问题，而不是非好即坏。Text 6 某件事情有可能因为相关的一些因素而变成了不幸的事。火车要晚点五分钟，如果你边读着报纸上一篇有趣的文章边等车，并不赶时间，那么这就是一件无关紧要的事。但是如果你要去参加一个重要会议，而且马上要迟到了，那火车晚点就变成坏事了。Text 7 谈到坏事成三的问题，其中最关键的因素是第一件倒霉事持续的时间有多长以及给人的印象深不深。比如说，你外出度假期间家里的水管爆裂了。也许不到一个小时你的家就变成了一片汪洋，而在接下来的几个月中你的脑子会不停地想起这桩倒霉事，因为你要把房子清理干净，还要和保险公司就赔偿问题讨价还价，这些都会让你不断地
28、想起这件事。Text 8 第一件倒霉事困扰你的时间越长，你再遇到两件倒霉事的机率就越大。说不定一个月之后，有人开车追尾撞了你的车。又过了一个星期，你的结婚戒指不见了。出了第一件倒霉事，你的情绪本来就很低落，这时你会很快地把后来发生的事情联系到一起，把它们看作是有关联的一连串事件。Text 即使这几件事情的时间跨度可能长达两个月之久，那也不会改变你的看法。等你从浸水事件中平复过来的时候，你已经在积极地等待下一个灾难的发生了。这个时间跨度已经被拉长了，直至能够证明你之前的预言是对的。Text 9 人们碰上倒霉事的时候会像遇到巧合的时候一样，去寻找一些事例来验证他们先入为主的想法，而忽略掉与这种想法
29、有出入的事情（因为那些事情不是那么有趣）。孤立的倒霉事每时每刻都在发生。光凭这一点就可以推翻“坏事成三”的理论了。坏事也可以是成双的。但是你的朋友很可能会对你说：“我一连碰到了三件倒霉事，可真是应了那句俗话！”，而不是说：“我只碰上了两件倒霉事，这不正好证明了坏事成三这个说法不成立吗？”毕竟，说后一种话是要冒风险的！Text 10 但是，至少有一个合理的解释可以说明为什么坏事会扎堆。这涉及到概率和独立性的问题。并不是所有的倒霉事都互无关联。任何一个人在被解雇之后都会心情抑郁，这会降低他们身体的抵抗力，使他们更容易得病，而身体反应也不像以前那么警觉敏感（所以他们就更有可能遇上打碎贵重的花瓶这样的
30、事）。Text 因此，虽然人们在某一天被裁员和在某一天生病的概率都很小，但是这两件事同时发生的概率肯定要高于它们分别发生的概率。看地图时碰到的倒霉事看地图时碰到的倒霉事11 关于日常生活中突发的普通倒霉事我们就说到这里。下面让我们来看一个每个人都会碰到的事情。Text 12 你要去拜访一个朋友，他住在城市的另一头。你在街道地图册上寻找去他家的路线，结果发现这条路恰恰就在这页地图的边上。这意味着要找到一条精确的路线，你就必须从这一页翻到下一页，不停地翻来翻去，很是麻烦。这条路线不是一半在这一页一半在下一页，就是被地图中间的书脊夹着。如果你手里拿的是全国地形测量局的地图，那么你的目的地可能正好就在
31、地图册的折合处。Text 13 这似乎很不公平。毕竟一个地图的“边缘”只有那么一点儿，而“中间”的地方那么大，你要去的地方完全可以在中间啊！事实果真如此吗？实际上，你随便挑一个地方，它出现在靠近地图边缘的机率比你想象的要大得多。Text 14 看一看下面的地图。如果你的目的地在地图上标出的那个阴影区域里，你就遇到麻烦了。这个阴影区域离地图四周的边缘处只有一厘米的距离，这似乎微不足道。但是这些阴影区域的面积加起来有56平方厘米。Text 差不多占了整页地图面积的28%，这意味着任何一个你要找的地方都有28%（差不多是三分之一）的机率出现在离页边不到一厘米的尴尬的地方。假如你设定离页边两厘米为阅读
32、不便的话，那你遇上坏运气的机率就攀升到了52%。换句话说，差不多每隔一次你就会碰到这样的倒霉事。Text 15 在大多数有关倒霉事的故事中，你会忘掉路线好找的次数，只记得路线不好找的次数，在这种情况下，你倒霉的机率肯定会很高，以致于过不了多久你就又会诅咒自己的运气，诅咒地图的出版商，或者两个一起诅咒。顺便说一下，这正是现在许多地图允许相邻的两页有很大重合部分的原因。一份制作精良的地图册，每页至少有30%的部分会在其他页上重复出现。Text 我赶时间的时候总是碰上红灯我赶时间的时候总是碰上红灯16 关于选择性记忆，即人们对好运气和坏运气所做的不公正的比较，最好的一个例子就是路上红绿灯的相对频率的
33、问题。有那么一次，“我赶时间的时候，总是碰上红灯”这种说法是真实可靠的。Text 为了便于理解，我们可以把红绿灯看作是投掷一枚硬币，出现红灯和绿灯的机率各为50%。（事实上大多数红绿灯，红灯的时间更长一点。）如果在路上碰上六个红绿灯，全部是绿灯就和扔硬币连续六次都是人头朝上的概率是一样的，为六十四分之一。Text 17 司机不赶时间的时候碰到的红灯其实和赶时间的时候一样多；只是如果时间不紧急，红灯带来的不便要小得多。认为红灯出现的次数比绿灯多其实是一种错觉。Text 产生这种错觉的原因很简单，因为司机有更多的时间去想红灯，而绿灯的时候，车子几秒钟之内就疾驰而过了这其实和在畅通的公路上开车没有任
34、何区别而红灯却迫使司机改变行为，一小会儿的时间里要强迫自己努力一下，承受点压力，还要失去一两分钟的自由。所以红灯会深深地印在司机的脑海里，而绿灯转瞬间就被抛到脑后了。Text Words&Phrasesbank holidayunluckymathematicalcoincidencescrutinymarginallysacktimescalesubsequentreminderinsurermemorabilitydurationneutralatlasproductvaseresponsivevulnerableredundantprobabilitybadnessspectrummis
35、fortuneclusterdisproveprophecyflickchorerouteWords&Phrasesordnanceordnance survey mapsituateinsignificantawkwardlyprinterexertionconsiderablyconsecutiveverifiablefrequencyselectiveduplicateincidentallyoverlapadjacentdeprivationWords&Phrasesalive and kickingbe bound tocrop upMurphys Law 墨菲定律bank holi
36、day n.C(BrE)a public holiday when shops,businesses,and banks are officially closed,kept as a public holiday（商店、企业、银行均关门的）银行假日，法定假日，公众假日 A bank holiday is a public holiday in the UK,so called as the banks are always closed.They change slightly between England,Wales,and Scotland,but they usually inclu
37、de Christmas Day,the day after Christmas,New Years Day,Good Friday,the May Bank Holiday and one at the end of August.e.g.Easter Monday is a bank holiday.复活节是银行停业日。The American version is national holiday.Words&Phrasesunlucky a.1)if you are unlucky,sth.bad happens to you,or sth.good does not happen,e
38、specially by chance（尤指偶然发生的情形）不幸的，倒霉的，运气不好的e.g.She was unlucky to catch a cold on the first day of her holiday.她太倒霉了，休假第一天就感冒了。2)used for describing sth.that is believed to make bad things happen 不吉利的e.g.13 is supposed to be an unlucky number.13是个大家认为不吉利的数字。Antonym:luckySynonym:unfortunateWords&Phra
39、sesmathematical a.relating to or involving mathematics 数学的e.g.1.Einstein was a mathematical genius.爱因斯坦是数学天才。2.Mathematical laws govern the universe.数学规律统治着整个宇宙。Word family:mathematics n.mathematician n.Words&Phrasescoincidence n.1)C,U a situation in which separate things happen by chance at the sam
40、e time or in the same way 巧合e.g.By an unfortunate coincidence,their house was burgled on the day he lost his job.不幸的是，在他丢了工作的那天，他们家又偏巧遭人偷窃。2)sing,U(fml)a situation in which ideas or opinions are the same（想法或意见的）一致，相符e.g.Is there any coincidence between his opinions and your own?他的意见与你自己的意见有没有一致之处?Wo
41、rds&Phrasesscrutiny n.U careful examination of someone or something 仔细检查e.g.1.A close scrutiny will reveal the lines at the corners of her eyes.仔细端详会发现她眼角的皱纹。2.It is safe assumption that the quality of products will be under severe scrutiny by governments in the years to come.完全可以肯定，在今后数年中，产品质量将会受到政
42、府的严格检查。Words&PhrasesWord family:scrutinize vt.examine someone or something very carefully 仔细检查，认真查看，详审e.g.1.She leaned forward to scrutinize their faces.她身子前倾，仔细查看他们的脸。2.To maintain a low sodium diet,you need to scrutinize the Nutritional Information boxes on food cartons.要保持低钠饮食，你需要仔细查看食品包装盒上“营养信息”
43、的内容。Words&Phrasesmarginally ad.by only a very small amount 少量地e.g.1.This years profits were marginally higher than last years.今年的利润比去年稍微高些。2.The team that is marginally ahead is more afraid to make mistakes,and less willing to take risks.稍微领先的球队更怕犯错，更不愿冒险。Word family:margin n.marginal a.Words&Phrase
44、ssack vt.&n.1)vt.(BrE)(infml.)tell someone that they can no longer work at their job 解雇；开除e.g.1.He was sacked for petty thieving.他因小偷小摸遭到了解雇。2.He sacked his solicitor after an argument over cost.在发生关于费用的争论后，他解雇了律师。2)n.(the)a situation in which the management of a company ends someones job 解雇；开除e.g.T
45、heyve never actually given anyone the sack.他们从未真的辞退过什么人。Words&Phrasesbadness n.U the quality of being bad 坏；恶；不良e.g.With the high prices and the badness of the times,we find it hard to get along.因为物价高涨，时机不好，生活真是愈来愈难过了。Antonym:goodness n.the quality of being good 善良,美德,精华 e.g.She has the desire to se
46、e goodness and justice in the world 她渴望看到世界上的美好与公正。Words&Phrasesspectrum n.(sing.)the whole range of ideas,qualities,situations etc that are possible 系列；范围；幅度e.g.1.Theres a wide spectrum of opinions on this problem.对这个问题的说法众说纷纭，莫衷一是。2.He has a wide spectrum of interests.他有广泛的兴趣爱好。3.The courses cover
47、 the full spectrum of levels.这些课程从初级到高级，各个水平的都有。Words&Phrasesmisfortune n.C bad luck 厄运；不幸的事e.g.1.The hurricane was a great misfortune for many people in the area.飓风给这一地区许多人带来很大灾难。2.He had the misfortune to break his left arm.他不幸把左胳臂折断了。Antonym:fortuneWords&Phrasesneutral a.1)a country that is neutr
48、al does not get involved in a war between other countries 中立的e.g.Neutral nations in the area have tried to bring an end to the war.该地区的中立国为结束战争作出了努力。2)not supporting any of the people or groups involved in an argument or disagreement 中立的，不偏不倚的e.g.She explained it all in a matter of fact,offhand,neut
49、ral way.她以就事论事、即席、不偏不倚的口气做了解释。Words&Phrases3)having no strongly marked characteristics or features;indistinct;vague 没有明显特征的；模糊的e.g.1.He has a rather neutral character.他品性平平。2.The train arriving five minutes late is a neutral event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article w
50、hile you wait.火车要晚点五分钟，如果你边读着报纸上一篇有趣的文章边等车，并不赶时间，那么这就是一件无关紧要的事。（即：算不上好，也算不上坏的事。）Word family:neutrality n.Words&Phrasesduration n.C,U(fml.)the period of time during which something continues to happen or exist 持续期间e.g.1.The duration of the examination is three hours.考试时间为三个小时。2.We took four trains,an
