1、Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LASales&Operations Planning Two Decades of Learning at BASF销售与运作计划管理BASF20年学习经验分享Alan L.Milliken CFPIM CIRM CSCPApril 14,2007Advancing Productivity,Innovation,and Competitive SuccessRegion IVRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAAlan L.Milliken CFPIM CIRM CSCP 20+years at maj
2、or manufacturing sites working in Production,Logistics,Process&Quality Control,Industrial Engineering,Training,and Scheduling20年以上专业制造场所从事生产，物流，流程和质量控制，工业工程，培训，和调度工作 11+years as a Supply Chain Consultant and APICS Instructor including two years in Mexico City helping BASF Mexicana improve their supp
3、ly chain11年以上供应链顾问和APICS讲师，包括在墨西哥巴斯夫的两年，帮助其提高供应链管理水平 Identified by an independent consulting firm as one of three APICS members who best answer the question,“What is a Supply Chain Manager?”由一个独立的咨询公司确定为三个APICS成员之一，并最好地回答了“供应链管理是什么？“这个问题。Served as an SME(Subject Matter Expert)on the team that develo
4、ped the new Certified Supply Chain Professional(CSCP)program.作为项目专家在团队中开发新的CSCP（认证供应链专家）项目。Served as an SME on the team that developed the new Certified Forecasting Professional(CFP)for the Institute of Business Forecasting(IBF)作为项目专家为商业预测研究所（IBF）开发了新的认证预测师（CFP）项目 Engineering Degree from Auburn Univ
5、ersity and MBA from Clemson UniversityAuburn大学工程学学位，Clemson大学MBARegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAObjectives of the Presentation目标 Define formal Sales&Operations Planning(S&OP)销售与运作计划定义 Describe the primary steps in the formal S&OP Process and explain the purpose of each描述标准S&OP的实施步骤，并对每个步骤进行解释说明 Rela
6、te the inputs and outputs of each step in the process每一步骤相关的输入与输出 Identify the participants in and responsibilities for each primary step为每个主要步骤识别主责和参与者 Discuss Key Performance Indicators(KPIs)for each step in the process讨论每个步骤的关键绩效指标（KPIs）Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAS&OP Process OverviewS&OP过程概
7、述Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAS&OP is the process with which we bring together all the plans for the business(customers,sales,marketing,development,manufacturing,sourcing,and financial)into one integrated set of plans.S&OP是将所有业务计划（客户、销售、市场、开发、生产、资源以及财务）集成在一起的是将所有业务计划（客户、销售、市场、开发、生产、资源以及财务）集成在一起的计
8、划集。计划集。The objective of Sales&Operations Planning is to arrive at a business“Game Plan”to help manage and allocate critical resources to meet the needs of the customer at the least cost to do so.S&OP的目标是帮助管理和分配关键资源，在成本最低的条件下满足客户的要求，是一套业的目标是帮助管理和分配关键资源，在成本最低的条件下满足客户的要求，是一套业务务“游戏计划游戏计划”。What is formal
9、 Sales&Operations Planning?什么是销售与运作计划？什么是销售与运作计划？Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LASource:APICS Illustrated DictionaryS&OP links Strategic Planning to OperationsS&OP as part of ERPRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LA业务计划S&OP需求管理主生产计划（MPS）粗能力需求计划（RCCP）最终装配计划（FAS）材料需求计划（MRP）能力需求计划（CPP）采购质量管理生产活动控制（PAC）仓储APS
10、MES数据收集财务通用总帐应收帐款应付帐款固定资产编制预算成本计算业务量成本法数据库BOM工艺路线库存余量未结订单历史数据供应商客户能力测量高层管理计划（长期）业务管理计划（中期）业务管理执行（短期）先进技术EDI电子商务Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LASales&OperationsPlanningMaster SchedulingDetailed Planning&SchedulingCAPACITYPLANNINGFORECASTING&DEMANDBusinessPlanningHigh Level Enterprise Resource Plannin
11、g ModelAnnuallyMonthlyWeeklyDailyStrategicPlanning2-10 YearsForecast OnlyForecast OnlyForecast OnlyForecast&OrdersOrders OnlyRough-cut Capacity PlanningCapacity Requirements PlanningResource PlanningRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAS&OP粗计划排期粗计划排期详细计划排期详细计划排期能力规划能力规划预测与需求预测与需求业务规划业务规划高级别企业资源计划模型高级别企业资
12、源计划模型年度年度月度月度周周日日战略计划战略计划2-10 年年仅预测仅预测仅预测预测+需求订单仅需求订单粗能力要粗能力要求计划求计划能力能力需求计划需求计划资源计划资源计划Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LASKU by Customer by LocationSKU by CustomerStock Keeping Unit(SKU)Package SizeModel/Brand Subfamily FamilyBusinessUnitTotalCompanyS&OP LevelsToo AggregatedToo DetailedForecasts are m
13、ore accurate higher in the hierarchyActual Demand is collected at the detailed level.S&OP in Product HierarchyS&OP is usually performed at an aggregated level(e.g.Product Family or Group)Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LA根据客户要求与存储地点确定的根据客户要求与存储地点确定的SKU按客户要求确定的按客户要求确定的SKU库存单位库存单位(SKU)包装尺寸包装尺寸型号型号/品牌品牌
14、产品子族产品子族 产品家族产品家族业务单元业务单元全公司全公司S&OP 级别级别过分聚集过分聚集过分详细过分详细预测数据愈发精确预测数据愈发精确收集来自于客户端的收集来自于客户端的详细信息详细信息.S&OP 在产品层级中的地位在产品层级中的地位S&OP 通常在聚集层面上执行(如产品门类或产品组合)Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAS&OP is a Five-Step Process：S&OP五步曲五步曲4-5步可以合并为一个会议历史数据生成需求规划需求规划检查销售预测与计划供应规划供应规划检查产能与效率满足程度、拟定生产计划，设置异常解决方案Pre-S&OP 需
15、求与供应平衡需求与供应平衡检查实际需求与计划的配合程度，回检财务情况与计划的配合度，回检例外情况的预案，验证以往各个步骤S&OP执行执行与Pre-S&OP会议的内容相类似，在执行中不断解决问题Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAThe Basic S&OP Grid(S&OP基本表格基本表格):从历史数据中可以得到计从历史数据中可以得到计划与实际达成结果的对照划与实际达成结果的对照Inventory Plan=Planned Opening Inventory+Planned Production-Planned SalesActual Inventory =Ope
16、ning Inventory+Actual Production-Actual SalesRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LA市场/销售产品定义产品需求资金主计划排期业务规划劳动力财务材料运营人力资源工程管理生产能力S&OP ProcessS&OP is a Cross-Functional ProcessS&OP是跨职能的过程是跨职能的过程Must champion the processRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LA improved customer service提高客户服务水平 reduced inventory降低库存
17、lower manufacturing&distribution costs降低生产和分销成本 better control of overall business performance很好地控制总体业务 increased team work within and across functions提高跨职能团队的工作效能Benefits of S&OPS&OP的益处的益处If implemented and used effectively,S&OP will yield major benefits to the firm有效实施或应用S&OP，将带来如下效果:Region IV Mee
18、ting New Orleans,LASteps in the S&OP ProcessS&OP实施步骤Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 1:Updating Input Data更新输入数据更新输入数据Results:High Inventory Low Service High Unit Cost Poor DecisionsRemember the GIGO Principle.It takes much effort to ensure accurate&timely data is driving the process.垃圾进，垃圾出。所有必
19、须确保导入系统的数据精确及时；S&OP Planning ProcessDataERRORRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAKey input data(e.g.inventory,sales,production,KPIs,etc.)should be updated as soon after month-end as feasible.关键数据（如库存、销量、生产量、KPI等）必须在当月结束后尽快更新；Typically,2-3 business days are allowed for this sub-process.Key Performance In
20、dicators(KPIs)for data gathering include:典型地，这一子过程仅可占用2-3个工作日。KPI包括：Accuracy of the data数据的精确性 Timeliness of sharing the data分享数据的时限 How well the data conforms to agreed upon formats数据格式与要求匹配的程度 Step 1:Updating Input Data(Continued)更新输入数更新输入数据（续）据（续）“Take care to get what you like or you will be for
21、ced to like what you get.千万要把你喜欢的东西弄到手千万要把你喜欢的东西弄到手,不然你不然你到头自食其果！到头自食其果！”George Bernard ShawRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 2:Demand Planning Process Overview需求计划需求计划过程概览过程概览Marketing&Sales are responsible for this step in the S&OP process.The output is used to drive supply planning.市场与销售与此步骤直接
22、相关。其输出将被用于驱动供应计划。The key performance measure for output is accuracy and for the process step is meeting timing commitments.本步骤绩效测量点：输出数据的精确性和过程步骤满足时限的要求程度。Review and update forecast回检与更新预测回检与更新预测(Marketing&Sales)Demand Plan制定需求计划制定需求计划InternalDemand内部需求内部需求MarketIntelligence市场调研市场调研Customer Orders客户
23、订单客户订单Sales Forecast销售预测销售预测Inputs输入输入Outputs输出输出Process处置过程处置过程Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 2:Demand Planning Activities需求计划需求计划相关活动相关活动 Generate new forecast(IT if automated)生成新的预测Marketing/Sales市场/销售:Review new forecast,revise if needed,and approve for updating of S&OP grid回检新的预测，批准S&OP构架
24、的更新 Review previous months forecasting performance and identify root causes for data outside tolerance回检以往月份的预测绩效，识别数据超出容差的根因 Provide status for new product introductions 提供新产品导入的情况说明 Document assumptions and risks associated with new forecast将新预测中的假设和风险文档化Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAManagement
25、Overrides Go Here产品系列产品系列Product Family or Group历史历史Step 2:Demand Planning Sample Plan需求计划需求计划计划样本计划样本The final plan is used to update the S&OP Grid and drive supply planning.最终计划用于更新S&OP构架并驱动供应计划Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAExample where only Bulk Product can be forecasted:Material(Prod-Pkg)PRD(
26、Bulk)Material_Descr.Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug20-Mth SUM20-Mth Avg.Std DevCoV110Packaged-4 -2 2 2 -2 -2 2 -2 -2 2 -2 2 -26 1 1 90%210Packaged-1 -5 -6 0 1 376%310Packaged-1 -1 -2 4 -8 0 1 249%410Packaged-3 2 -4 1 2 -1 -2 3 -2 20 1 1 130%510Packaged
27、-1 -1 -2 -1 -5 0 1 220%SUM10Bulk-7 3 3 8 3 2 2 6 2 3 2 4 3 4 6 -3 2 2 65 3 2 65%Example where Product-Package can be forecasted:Material(Prod-Pkg)PRD(Bulk)Material_Descr.Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug20-Mth SUM20-Mth Avg.Std DevCoV611 Packaged5 5 2 2
28、2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 5 6 2 5 2 2 2 5 68 3 1 40%Example of a Material(Prod-Pkg)that should be Made-to-Order:Material(Prod-Pkg)PRD(Bulk)Material_Descr.Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug20-Mth SUM20-Mth Avg.Std DevCoV711 Packaged2 -2 -1 2 -1 -2 -2 12 1 1 147%Step
29、 2:Demand Planning Forecastability需求计划需求计划可预测性可预测性The accuracy of the forecast depends heavily on whether or not the forecasting tool is applicable to the history data.One test to determine this is the Coefficient of Variation(COV).COV=Standard Deviation of Period-to-Period Sales/Average Period Sale
30、s.If COV 0.8,conventional forecasting such as moving average should not be used.预测的精度依赖于预测工具是否适应于历史数据。一个测试手段为波动系数（COV）。COV=Standard Deviation of Period-to-Period Sales/Average Period Sales.如果COV0.8，就不能使用移动平均这种的预测工具。Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 2:Demand Planning Symptoms You Need a Formal S&O
31、P Process需求计划需求计划整定整定S&OP过程过程Shareholder or Owner股东Board of Directors董事会ProfitsRevenue ForecastSales Manager3-Year PlanSales RepresentativeStuff Flows This DirectionActual SalesTop-Down Directives Conflict Significantly with Current Market Conditions自上自上而下的指令与当前市场状况的冲突显著程度而下的指令与当前市场状况的冲突显著程度:A forma
32、l S&OP Process will ensure alignment across organization&planning levels.一个正式的S&OP过程应该确保分配跨组织或计划层级Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAMarketing/Sales Suffer with the“Field of Dreams”Syndrome市场市场/销售充斥着销售充斥着“白日梦白日梦”症状症状“If we make it,they will come!造出来，就能卖出去！造出来，就能卖出去！”Well guess what,in many cases we mad
33、e it and they did not come.OutputForecastManufacturingInventoryStep 2:Demand Planning Symptoms You Need a Formal S&OP ProcessA formal S&OP process will ensure cross-functional review of forecasting performance.一个正式的一个正式的S&OP过程必须对预测绩效进行跨职能的评估。过程必须对预测绩效进行跨职能的评估。Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LASupply C
34、hain ManagerBill,this is Jim.I want to make an appointment with you to discuss our Demand Planning process?InventoryThe Supply Chain Manager contacts the Marketing Manager.Forecast+10%Oh,Hi Jim.Actually we dont have a formal Demand Planning process.However,Im updating the latest forecast at this ver
35、y moment.The Marketing Manager responds.The Scope of Marketing/Sales Participation is Limited市场市场/销售参与度有限销售参与度有限 Step 2:Demand Planning Symptoms You Need a Formal S&OP ProcessRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 2:Supply Planning Process Overview供应计划供应计划过程概览过程概览Demand Plan需求计划需求计划Integration of Supp
36、ly PlanningInputsOutputsProcessInventories库存库存Manufacturing operations and purchasing are responsible for the Supply Planning step of the S&OP process.本步骤主要涉及生产运营控制和采购；The key KPI for the process output is the deviation between planned and actual supply.For the process itself,timely&accurate data to
37、 drive the next step is most important.关键控制要素：计划与实际的偏离；过程数据的及时性与准确性，这对于驱动下一个步骤至关重要Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 2:Supply Planning Activities有关活动有关活动 Develop the preliminary supply plan based on the demand plan 根据需求计划制定基本供应计划 Perform Resource Planning(Capacity Planning)for key resources为关键资源执行
38、资源计划（容量计划）Identify and resolve imbalances in demand&supply as feasible尽可能识别和解析需求和供应中的不平衡问题 Identify imbalances to be reviewed by management通过管理评审识别不平衡Key activities for the Supply Planning sub-process include:供应计划相关活动包括：Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 2:Supply Planning Sample Plan计划样本计划样本Machin
39、e Hours&No.of Batches are Key Resources机器运行时数、机器运行时数、批次数量是关键批次数量是关键资源资源Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LASupply Chain ManagerJim,what is going on in Production.Fred did not make the rate decrease we had in the S&OP Plan and Inventory is out-of-control.ProductionSalesInventoryStep 3:Supply Planning Sym
40、ptoms You Need a Formal S&OP Process问题问题Manufacturing&Business Goals are not Aligned生产与业务目标不一致生产与业务目标不一致Congratulations Fred,your unit cost in production was below plan last month and Ive been authorized to give you a bonus.Plant ManagerJIMRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 4:Demand-Supply Balanci
41、ng Process Overview供需平衡供需平衡过程概述过程概述The Master Scheduler will typically facilitate the balancing of demands with supply once the preliminary S&OP plans are developed.一旦初步的S&OP计划发布，主调度程序通常会促进供需平衡；The primary objective is to resolve any imbalances at the least cost to do so.主要目标是用最小代价解决不平衡问题Demand Plan
42、Supply PlanSupplyPlanDemandPlanInputsOutputsProcessRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 4:Demand-Supply Balancing Activities相相关活动关活动 Make decisions regarding demand-supply balancing按供需平衡的要求进行决策 Resolve issues and formulate recommendations解决问题提出建议 Document the issues that could not be resolved and th
43、e alternatives for each记录每个未解决的问题，逐个提供替代解决方案 Convert the plans to financial units for management review将计划转换为财务单元以便进行评审 Develop the agenda for the executive S&OP为S&OP的执行设定时间表Note:Depending on the size and complexity of the business,this step may require a formal meeting or may be done leveraging com
44、munications technology(e.g.shared files).注：根据业务的工作量及复杂程度，这一步骤可能需要一次正式的会议或借助沟通技术（如共享文件等）；Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 5:Executive S&OP Meeting召开会议召开会议The purpose of this meeting is to approve recommendations,make decisions,and issue the firms“game plan.”会议的目的是批准建议，作出决策，发布计划。Sample Agenda Exec
45、utive S&OP Meeting会议日程示例 Review of Overall Business Performance回顾总体业务绩效 Review&Discussion of Key Performance Indicators回顾和讨论KPI Discuss Status of New Product Introductions讨论新产品的引入情况 Family-by-Family Review and Decisions逐个产品线回检与决策 Approve Production/Supplier Rate Changes批准生产/供应变化率 Collective Impact o
46、n the Business Plan收集对业务计划的影响 Review of Decisions Made&Action Items Assigned决策并分配任务 Critique of the Meeting对会议进行评论和总结Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 5:Outputs&Objectives of Executive S&OP Meeting会议的输出与执行对象会议的输出与执行对象The outputs of the meeting are the Meeting Minutes,modifications to the Business
47、 Plans,and the finalized S&OP Plan.Collectively,these are referred to as the“Game Plan.”Objectives for the meeting include:会议的输出有：业务计划的修正，最终确定S&OP计划；会议的对象包括：Make final decisions for issues raised during the S&OP process对问题确最终解决方案 accept or change proposals接收或改变动议choose from alternatives provided选择替代
48、方案 Compare the financial numbers from the S&OP Plan to the current Business Plan and reconcile the two.Finalize the S&OP Plan.将计划与当前业务的财务数据进行比较，确定最终的S&OP计划；Review current performance for Customer Service,Inventory,etc.,and make any necessary changes to plans or targets.回检当前的客户服务、库存等绩效指标，并据此对计划或目标作出必
49、要的修正 Review New Product Issues,Special Projects,and Business Level Issues and make the necessary decisions.回检新产品、特殊项目以及业务层面的问题，并对相关问题作出适当的决策。Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 5:Sample S&OP Plan in SAP样例样例DEMANDSUPPLYRESOURCE PLANNINGINVENTORYNote:Most ERP Systems provide a platform to enable S&OP
50、Region IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 5:Sample S&OP Plan in EXCEL样例样例Historical PerformancePlanRegion IV Meeting New Orleans,LAStep 5:Sample S&OP Business Scorecard业务计分卡示例业务计分卡示例Period Ending:December,2006KPI ScoreCardTRENDDECSTATUSROLLING 12 MONTHTotal Sales($M)J.DoeContribution Margin($OK J.DoeTota
