1、1(1)345678910111213151617Forrester,who invented random-access magnetic-core Forrester,who invented random-access magnetic-core memory during the first wave of modern digital memory during the first wave of modern digital computers,also pioneered the field of system computers,also pioneered the field
2、 of system dynamics-analysis of the behavior of systems.dynamics-analysis of the behavior of systems.He pursues three main interests based on system He pursues three main interests based on system dynamics:dynamics:the System Dynamics National Model,the System Dynamics National Model,which generates
3、 the major observed modes of which generates the major observed modes of economic behavior;economic behavior;a new management education a new management education based on the inherent,dynamic complexity of all based on the inherent,dynamic complexity of all the related parts of a corporation and br
4、ings them the related parts of a corporation and brings them into a unified system;into a unified system;system dynamics as a system dynamics as a methodology for giving cohesion,meaning,and methodology for giving cohesion,meaning,and motivation to pre-college education.motivation to pre-college edu
5、cation.Germeshausen Professor Emeritus of Management Senior Lecturer University of Nebraska,BS 39,Electrical Engineering MIT,MS 45,Electrical Engineering 18192021222325262728库存订货控制系统库存订货控制系统2930库存订货控制系统库存订货控制系统3132正反馈回路举例正反馈回路举例33负反馈回路举例负反馈回路举例343536全国社会经济模型框图全国社会经济模型框图37因果图因果图383940错误的因果环画法：错误的因果环画
6、法：令人费解令人费解41未闭合的回路未闭合的回路424344454647484950正负反馈环作用下的物种模型正负反馈环作用下的物种模型51产品销售模型产品销售模型52产品销售模型产品销售模型53产品销售模型产品销售模型54产品销售模型产品销售模型55SOURCE源源SINK漏漏LEV状态状态IN输入率输入率OUT输出率输出率流图及其基本表达形式流图及其基本表达形式56离退率培训速度雇佣率工作人员培训人员57流图中的反馈回路 就系统整体来说，反就系统整体来说，反馈回路事实上就是联馈回路事实上就是联系决策、行动、系统系决策、行动、系统水平变量水平变量(系统的状系统的状态态)以及信息再回到以及信息再回到决策点的整个闭合回决策点的整个闭合回路。路。从图中可以看到，决从图中可以看到，决策控制行动，行动影策控制行动，行动影响系统状况，系统状响系统状况，系统状态的新信息又将决策态的新信息又将决策修改，如此不断进行修改，如此不断进行。所以，系统的动态。所以，系统的动态现象是由反馈回路的现象是由反馈回路的决策过程所形成的。决策过程所形成的。5859606162636465
