1、1Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingDr.David Jacobs 雅各布斯雅各布斯 大卫大卫IET国际能源转型国际能源转型Integrating high share of renewables into the power grid -The German experience 高比例可再生能源并网高比例可再生能源并网德国经验德国经验International Workshop on Power Transformation国际变电研讨会国际变电研讨会China National Re
2、newable Energy Center中国国家可再生能源中心中国国家可再生能源中心Beijing,15 September 20192019年年9月月15日，北京日，北京 2Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingTargets and objectives of the German energy transition德国能源转型的目标 Options for integrating high shares of wind and solar PV into the German mark
3、et将更多的风能和太阳能光伏融入德国市场的选择Grid expansion/integration 电网扩大/融合Dispatch from conventional(and renewable)power plants 从传统（和可再生能源）发电厂调度Demand response需求响应Storage 贮存Lessons learned for China中国得出的经验Agenda议程3Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition(Ener
4、giewende)Targets and objectives 德国能源转型目标4Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition in a Nutshell德国能源转型概况A long history 拥有一段很长的历史The concept“Energiewende”was first coined in 1980(ko-Institut)“能源转型”这一概念于1980年首次提出（应用生态研究所）Two main elements:exit f
5、rom nuclear power,entry into renewable energies两个主要元素：退出核能领域，进入可再生能源领域A feed-in tariff system for renewables first introduced in 19911991年首次为可再生能源引进上网电价系统Government decisions in 2000-2019:nuclear phase-out extending into the 2020s and introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act(EEG)20002019年政府决
6、定：到21世纪20年代逐步淘汰核电，引入可再生能源法案（EEG）New energy concept under the current government in September 2019:extension of nuclear operating times combined with ambitious goals for emission reduction,share of renewables and energy efficiency当前政府2019年9月的新能源概念：延长核电运营时间，确立了在减排和可再生能源共享以及能源效率的宏伟目标5Dr.David Jacobs-In
7、ternational Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition in a Nutshell德国能源转型概述 and a recent shock最近的一次事故Immediate shutdown of the oldest nuclear power plants and appointment of an Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply after the Fukushima shock in March 2019在2019年3月的福岛事故发
8、生后，立即关闭了最旧的几家核电站，并指定了负责安全能源供应的道德委员会Final report of the Ethics Commission in May 2019,government decision on“The Energiewende”in June 2019:nuclear exit by 20222019年5月道德委员会的最终报告，2019年6月政府对“能源转型”的决定：到2022年淘汰核电Other targets of the 2019 energy concept remain,e.g.share of renewables by 2050:60%of energy c
9、onsumed,80%of electricity produced.2019年能源概念的其他目标仍然保留，如，到2050年能源比例：占消耗能源的60%，占发电能源的 80%。6Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingLong-term targets of the Energiewende能源转型的长期目标The Energiewende is more than just a nuclear exit:a complete transformation of the energy syste
10、m of a highly industrialized country能源转型不仅仅是淘汰核能：而是高度工业化国家的能源系统的完全转型Source:BMUB 2019来源：BMUB 2019气候可再生能源效率GHGs(与1990相比)电力所占比例总比例一次能源电力运输能源生产率建筑升级每年增长2.1%比例翻了一番7Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingRenewable energy growth in the electricity sector电力部门的可再生能源的增长 Source:B
11、MUB 2019来源：BMUB 2019基于可再生能源的总电量StromEinspG下的付费上网电量EEG下的付费上网电量总付费截至1991年1月1日截至2000年4月1日截至2019年8月1日截至2009年1月1日截至2019年1月1日百万欧元百万欧元8Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingTotal production:about 550 TWh总产量：约550太瓦时Installed capacity incl.renewables:160 GW 装机容量，包括可再生能源：160 GW
12、 Maximum load occurs in the winter and is around 80 GW 最大负荷出现在冬季，约为80 GW German Energy System Facts德国能源系统实际情况Source:Monitoringbericht BNetzA来源：Monitoringbericht BNetzA9Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe electricity mix in 20192019年电力结构Natural Gas天然气Hard Coal硬煤N
13、uclear核能Lignite褐煤Others其他Solar PV太阳能光伏Hydro水力Biomass生物质Wind,mainly onshore风力，主要为陆上风力Renewable Energies in Total总可再生能源10Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingPhase out until 2022 到2022年逐步淘汰80%of renewables until 2050 到2050年可再生能源占80%From 20/80 to 80/20 (electricity)从20/
14、80到80/20（电力）From nuclear phase out to energy transition 从淘汰核能到能源转型Fossil/nuclear,80%化石能源/核能，80%Renewable,20%可再生能源，20%Fossil/nuclear,20%化石能源/核能，20%Renewable,80%可再生能源,80%11Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe EEG amendment of 2019:Continuation of the Energiewende a
15、t a slower pace2019年可再生能源修正案：以较慢的步伐继续实施能源转型The Energy Transition in the electricity sector will continue将会继续进行电力部门的能源转型but at a slightly reduced speed due to costs and grid infrastructure.但是由于成本和电网基础设施的原因，速度会稍微减慢。Proposed annual growth rates for different technologies:针对不同技术推荐的年增长率：2.5 GW of solar P
16、V annually 太阳能光伏每年2.5 GW 2.5 GW of wind onshore annually 陆上风能每年2.5 GW 800 MW of wind offshore annually 海上风能每年800 MW 100 MW of new biomass/biogas annually 新生物质/生物气每年100 MW Proposed mid-term targets for renewables in the electricity sector:2025203540-45%55-60%(35%by 2020,50%by 2030,65%by 2040)（到2020年增
17、长35%，到2030年增长50%，到2040年增长65%）12Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German electricity system design Alongside the features of wind and solar PV德国电力系统设计以及风力和太阳能光伏的特征13Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingHigh upfront investment(ca
18、pital costs)较高的前期投资（资本成本）Almost zero marginal costs边际成本几乎为零 Fluctuating supply(depending on the weather)功能波动较大（取决于天气状况）Important features of wind and solar风力和太阳能发电的特征0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%CCGTCoalNuclearWindPVCAPEXOPEXShare of fixed versus variable costs of selected power generation techn
19、ologies 所选发电技术的固定成本和可变成本的相应比例所选发电技术的固定成本和可变成本的相应比例联合循环燃气发电运营支出资本支出光伏煤炭核能风能14Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingElectricity demand and renewable power generation in 20222022年电力需求和可再生能源发电The electricity market is determined by wind and solar PV电力市场由风能和太阳能光伏决定Source:A
20、gora Energiewende 2019来源：Agora Energiewende 2019二月初（第6日历周）电力需求光电水力发电化石燃料发电站陆上/海上风力生物质15Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingElectricity demand and renewable power generation in 20222022年电力需求和可再生能源发电The electricity market is determined by wind and solar PV电力市场由风能和太阳能光
21、伏决定Source:Agora Energiewende 2019来源：Agora Energiewende 2019八月中旬（第33日历周）电力需求光电水力发电化石燃料发电站陆上/海上风力生物质16Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingElectricity demand and renewable power generation in 20222022年电力需求和可再生能源发电The electricity market is determined by wind and solar P
22、V电力市场由风能和太阳能光伏决定Source:Agora Energiewende 2019来源：Agora Energiewende 2019十一月下旬（第47日历周）电力需求光电水力发电化石燃料发电站陆上/海上风力生物质17Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition(Energiewende)Grid expansion and European integration德国能源转型 电网扩大和欧洲一体化18Dr.David Jacobs-
23、International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingGrid extension plans in Germany德国电网扩大计划Transport renewable electricity from the North(onshore and offshore wind)to the load centers in the South将可再生能源电力从北部（陆上和海上风能）输送至南部负荷中心Avoid grid congestions and loop flows避免电网拥堵和回流NIMBY and public consultati
24、on邻避和公共协商Distribution grid upgrade:配电网升级：Most renewable energy projects in Germany are connected to the distribution grid德国的大多数可再生能源项目连接至配电网High shares of renewables(PV)in Bavarian distribution grids巴伐利亚配电网中可再生能源（光伏）占有很高比例Bi-directional transformer stations 双向变电站NEP 2019,Stand:Juli 2019 netzentwickl
25、ungsplan.de 19Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,Beijing10-year network development plan from ENTSO-e欧洲输电网运营商联盟十年发展规划The latest report pinpoints about 100 spots on the European grid where bottlenecks exist or may develop in the future最新报告准确地描述了欧洲电网中约100个位置，仍然存在瓶颈或将来继续发展Tr
26、ansmission adequacy by 2030?到2030年输电能力充足？Full market coupling with European neigbours(e.g.one merit order for Germany and Austria).与欧洲邻国创造一个完整市场（如，德国和澳大利亚的优先顺序）The expansion of the European transmission grid欧洲输电网的扩大Source:ENTSO-e 2019来源：ENTSO-e 201920Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power T
27、ransformation,BeijingDecentralised Production needs smart grids分散式生产需要智能电网Source:unendlich-viel-energie.de来源：unendlich-viel-energie.de21Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition(Energiewende)Dispatch of conventional(and renewable)power plants
28、德国能源转型传统（和可再生能源）发电站的调度22Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingWeather forecasting systems have improved dramatically 天气预报系统已经得到了很大的改进Remaining problem:cloud casting in the case of solar PV仍然存在的问题：太阳能光伏方面存在一些疑问Gate-closure times in wholesale marked were move closer to
29、the time of operation(15 minute before operation on intraday market).电闸关闭时间更加接近运行时间（当日市场运行前15分钟）Integrating variable renewables:Improved weather forecasting and renewables friendly market design 整合波动性可再生能源：改进预测和可再生能源友好市场设计Source:IEA 2019来源：IEA 2019净负荷系统操作员对现货市场和次级市场提供的弹性资源的承诺和调度的滚动更新T+30分钟（电闸关闭）分钟（电
30、闸关闭）T+3小时小时T+1天天T：运行时间（当发电并消耗电力时，运行时间为瞬间）T时净负荷的不确定性（MW）弹性资源和T时净负荷的不确定性（MW）T时净负荷23Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingIncentives for regional distribution of renewable energy sources 可再生能源区域分配的刺激因素Onshore wind“Referenzertragsmodell”陆上风能“Referenzertragsmodell”Remote-c
31、ontrol of renewable energy power plants(dispatchability)可再生能源发电站的远程控制（可调度性）Additional system services of renewables in the German power system德国电力系统中的可再生能源的其他系统服务 Support voltage dips支持电压骤降Grid ride-through capability(previously support by additional tariff payment now state-of-the-art)电网穿越能力（之前通过额外
32、的电费支持现在达到最高水平）Additional measures for integrating volatile renewables(wind and solar)整合不稳定可再生能源的其他措施（风能和太阳能）24Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingTypical German Merit Order典型的德国优先顺序法Power plants are dispatched according to their short-term marginal costs(fuel costs
33、and CO2 costs)按照发电站的短期边际成本对其进行调度（燃料成本和CO2 成本）Wind and solar are only dispatched at times of negative prices on the spot market 仅在现货市场价格消极时调度风能和太阳能Economic dispatch in liberalized electricity markets 自由化电力市场的经济调度价格需求供应边际收益可再生能源核电站褐煤电站火电厂燃气石油边际成本电量25Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Tran
34、sformation,BeijingReduce must-run requirements of conventional power plants减少传统发电站的一些强制性要求Reduced full-load hours for coal and gas-fired power plants 减少燃煤和燃气发电站的全负荷小时数changing economics and additional revenue requirements via capacity markets?通过容量市场改变经济和额外的收入要求？Operation of combined heat-and-power a
35、nd biomass plants according to electricity demand(and not according to heat demand)根据电力需求（而不是根据热需求）运营热电和生物质发电站Upgrade existing power plant in order to allow for better ramping capabilities升级现有发电站提高产能Conventional power plants need to become more flexible 传统发电站应当变得更加灵活26Dr.David Jacobs-International W
36、orkshop on Power Transformation,BeijingSource:IEA 2019来源：IEA2019Technical ramping capabilities of different power generation technologies(Nordic power market)不同发电技术的滑坡功能（北欧电力市场）一定时限内能够回应的装机容量比例煤电核电蒸气轮机发电水力发电热电联产 15分钟 1小时 6小时 36小时其他高峰发电封闭式循环燃气轮机发电开式循环燃气轮机发电27Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on
37、Power Transformation,BeijingModified finance mechanism for dispatchable renewables(biomass):可调度可再生能源（生物质）的融资机制修订版：Combination of payment for capacity(MW installed)and electricity(MWh fed into the grid)既要支付装机容量（兆瓦）费用，也要支付电力（流入电网的兆瓦/小时）费用Reasoning:reduce operating hours of biogas plants and use them a
38、s back-up for wind and solar PV原因：减少生物质发电厂的运行时间，以补充风电和太阳能发电的不足Renewable power plants need to become more flexible可持续能源发电厂需增强灵活性 28Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingPreviously:Priority dispatch due to fixed FIT regime过去：因FIT制度固定而进行优先调度Now:Move to premium FIT model(
39、spot market sales plus additional,ex-post defined premium payment also planned in the UK)现在：转移到优质FIT模式（现货市场销售加上事后确定的额外缴费英国也有此计划）Priority dispatch for renewables(FIT)可再生能源的优先调度（FIT）Economic dispatch(Premium FIT)经济调度（优质FIT）(Adapted from Planning our electric future:a white paper for secure,affordable
40、and low-carbon electricity(Department of Energy and Climate Change,2019).（从“规划我们的电力未来：安全、实惠、低碳电力白皮书”改编而来（能源和气候变化部门，2019）电价（英镑/兆瓦时）成交价发电机运作上下浮动，达到成交价时间市场份额（/MWh）FIT CID付款（/MWh）月用电量价格29Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingNegative prices occur during periods of high re
41、newables shares可持续能源份额较高期间会出现消极价格IN COMBINATION with inflexible conventional power plants (“must run”)与灵活传统的发电厂（“必须运行着”）联合起来Dispatch of renewables in times of negative spot market prices 现货市场价格处于消极时可持续能源的调度现货交易30Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy
42、Transition(Energiewende)Demand response policies 德国能源过渡计划（Energiewende）-需求响应政策31Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingGermany is an international“laggard”regarding demand response and flexible demand德国在需求响应和灵活需求方面落后于国际上其他国家Ordinance governing interruptible loads(AbLaV
43、)for large industrial loads管理大型工业负荷中的可中断负荷（AbLaV）条例 requires transmission system operators to tender 1.5 GW of immediately interruptible loads(SOL)and 1.5 GW of quickly interruptible loads(SNL)要求转型系统操作人员提供150万千瓦立即可中断负荷（SOL）和150万快速可中断负荷（SNL）Demand response and the German energy transition 需求响应和德国能源过渡
44、计划Immediatelyinterruptibleloads立即可中断负荷立即可中断负荷Quicklyinterruptibleloads快速可中断负荷快速可中断负荷Responsetime响应时间响应时间1 second 1秒15 minutes 15分钟Maximumlengthofinterruptioninsuccession连续中断最长时间连续中断最长时间1 h1小时4 h4小时8 h8小时1 h1小时4 h4小时8 h8小时PRODUCT GROUPS FOR ORDINANCE GOVERNING INTERRUPTIBLE LOADS管理可中断负荷条例产品组管理可中断负荷条例
45、产品组Source:IASS Potsdam来源：波茨坦可持续发展高等研究院（IASS）32Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingSource:IASS Potsdam on the basis of Gobmaier and von Roon 2019INCENTIVE MECHANISMS FOR FLEXIBLE LOADS ON DAY-AHEAD AND INTRADAY MARKETS前日和即日市场灵活负荷的激励机制前日和即日市场灵活负荷的激励机制Demand response E
46、xamples of flexible load需求响应灵活响应范例Type类型类型Incentivesvia激励方式激励方式Loadshifting转换负荷转换负荷Regular price spreads(e.g.EUR 50/MWh)常规价差（例如，50欧元/MWh）Loadshedding分流负荷分流负荷Occasional,very high prices(e.g.EUR 1,000/MWh)偶尔高价（例如，1000欧元/MWh）Loadincrease增加负荷增加负荷Regular low prices(e.g.EUR 10/MWh)常规低价（例如，10欧元/MWh）33Dr.Da
47、vid Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition(Energiewende)Large requirements for electricity storage?德国能源过渡计划（Energiewende）-电力储存要求很严格？34Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingCommon myth:renewable energy sources need sto
48、rage!共同的困惑：可持续能源需要储存！Reality:Existing electricity systems can offer flexibility via grid expansion(smart grids),the flexibility of power plans and demand response现实：现有电力系统通过电网扩张（智能电网）、增强电力规划灵活性和需求响应，可增强灵活性Studies show that electricity storage(except for large hydro)is today the most expansive flexib
49、ility option研究标明从灵活性角度而言，电力储存（大型水电除外）是当今最昂贵的选择Storage requirements depends on the acceptance of curtailment of wind and solar PV and reduction of“must run”from conventional power plants储存要求取决于是否能够接受风电和太阳能发电规模的缩减和传统发电厂“必须运行”（数量）的减少Energiewende and storage requirementsEnergiewende和电力储存要求35Dr.David Jac
50、obs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingThe German Energy Transition(Energiewende)Lessons learned for the integration of high shares of renewables 德国能源过渡计划（Energiewende）-高份额可持续能源整合中的可学经验36Dr.David Jacobs-International Workshop on Power Transformation,BeijingGermany:Stable/declining
