1、2023-8-13资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd资产发展与财务资产发展与财务-深圳深圳-davidwangxd资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdPart 1INTRODUCTION资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdCHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION TO THE PROPERTY DEVELPOMENT PROCESS对房地产开发过程的介绍对房地产开发过程的介绍 Section 1.Introduction（介绍）Section 2.The economic context of property development （房地产业发展的经济背景）资
2、产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSection 1.Introduction DefinitionProperty development is the process by which buildings are erected for occupation or for sale/investment.房地产开发是一个从建设到处置的过程 Essential pointProperty development is much like any other economic activity,it acts to satisfy wants with the application
3、of scarce resources.房地产开发像其它商业活动一样是一个在无限需求中分配有限资源的过程。资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd The development process开发过程开发过程 choosing a location位置选择;identifying a site and carrying out a detailed site survey地点选择与勘察;providing an outline scheme and appraisal制定开发计划和可研;negotiating for site acquisition土地谈判;Design初设;plann
4、ing consent规划审批;Finance融资;site acquisition获取土地;detailed plans详细设计;tender documents招投标;Construction建设;occupation or marketing and management处置.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Basic Formulasvalue cost=profit GDV (building costs+site value)=profitthe gross development value(GDV开发总值)GDV (building costs+profit)=E
5、UV(existing use value剩余使用价值)资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Some Concepts Value of the site:which depends on location,use(under planning law),topography,legal constraints,ground conditions,services and access.土地价值取决于位置、用途、地形、法律限制、地况和基础设施。Value of the proposed development:which depends on use,density,design,l
6、ayout and infrastructure.预计的开发价值取决于用途、容积率、设计、布局和基础设施。Cost of construction:which depends on size,design,type of buildings,planning constraints on buildings,landscaping and provision of services and access.建设成本取决于规模、设计、建筑类型、规划约束、景观及基础设施。资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Approaches to valuing the development prop
7、erty the investment method投资法（重置成本法）;the comparative method比较法;the contractors test 成本加成法(a cost based method)the profits method收益法;and,the residual valuation余值法.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Parties in the development process 地产开发的参与者 The professional advisors专家 The clients客户 The planning authority规划部门 Th
8、e contractor施工方 The community社区 The funders资金方资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 2:THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT OF PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT房地产业发展的经济背景房地产业发展的经济背景 Historic trace Keynesian approach to demand management 凯恩斯主义与需求管理 The supply side of macroeconomics 供给学派 Development property房地产业的发展资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd
9、Two views两种观点From economists aspect宏观政府方面 Economists are basically interested in the influence of property on economic growth and efficiency and the effect of location on firms and jobs.经济增长和就业From property developers aspect 微观企业方面 Property developers tend to approach property from a different view
10、from economists.They are likely to focus on a narrow band of the property market,more concerned with the marketability and profitability of potential developments.盈利资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Optimal size of building 最优开发规模Units of accommodationSite valueMCMRXPQYV资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd MR边际收入=the extra
11、revenue to be earned from the addition of each successive unit of accommodation to a fixed area of land.The extra accommodation is at higher,less accessible levels and thus value falls(decreasing marginal productivity).MC 边际成本=the additional costs of each extra unit of accommodation.Initially this f
12、alls(ie in building a second storey)but then it increases(extra lifts,expensive foundations,project period lengthens).PQY=the profit the developer will make from the site(the difference between the total revenue and cost).资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdPart 2FINANCIAL APPRAISAL财务评价财务评价资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdC
13、HAPTER 2:THE DEVELOPMENT APPRAISAL开发评价开发评价 Section 1.Introduction Section 2.Site finding寻找土地 Section 3.Site appraisal土地评价 Section 4.Planning considerations规划安排 Section 5.Market research市场调研资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSection 1.Introduction The selection of a site fundamentally affects the nature and succe
14、ss of a development.No amount of careful design or promotion can totally overcome the disadvantage of poor location.土地的重要性就在于它决定了开发的性质和成功与否。这些往往不是后期的设计和促销工作能替代的。资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSection 2.Site finding土地寻找的影响因素土地寻找的影响因素 The developer may have a business strategy which restricts the operations to
15、 a geographic location or restricts activity to particular types of development 公司的发展战略 资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Distance to development sites may be a problem in effectively managing sites.开发距离 The developers skill and knowledge is important in identifying areas of potential growth开发商的专业知识.The releas
16、e of local authority land will have regard to market conditions but will also be influenced by the provisions of their development plans 政府规划资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Site disposals土地的处置方式土地的处置方式 Informal tender and invitations to offer邀标.The developer will have the ability to renegotiate the price bef
17、ore exchange of contracts Formal tenders投标 Developers do not like formal tenders as it reduces their flexibility and increases their risk.Competitions竞标 These competitions are used when financial considerations are not the only criteria for the disposal of the site.Auctions.拍卖资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdS
18、ection 3.Site appraisal土地评价土地评价 Access通道通道 Access is important from a legal point of view.You have to ascertain if access is provided from a site to a public right of way such as a road or highway adopted by the local authority.If the road has been adopted,then research into the deeds to discover th
19、e extent of rights over access roads will need to be carried out.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Ground Conditions土地状况土地状况 The ground conditions of a site will be extremely important whether the site has been an agricultural site,wasteland or a previously used site.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Surface Landscape an
20、d Boundaries地地面景观和边界面景观和边界The existing surface landscape may be treasured on a local or national level.These aspects may relate to planning law.Ownership of the boundaries should also be noted from the deeds but there can be disagreement where boundaries have been replaced or where one party has mai
21、ntained the fence as opposed to another.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Services基础设施基础设施 Services may go over or under the land.Those running over are usually cables,probably electricity or telephone cables.Those running below the ground may be cables or drain runs.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Contamination污染污染 Co
22、ntamination is a key problem and can render land valueless.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Government assistance优惠政策优惠政策 Government assistance is available to developers to assist in developing sites in certain locations under certain criteria.The loans available include money for city grants and allowances
23、in enterprise zones and urban development corporation areas.Assistance is also provided through the simplified planning zones.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 4:PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS规划阶段规划阶段 The planning system规划系统规划系统 Anyone wishing to carry out development for which planning consent is required mus
24、t apply to the local planning authority which is normally the local district council.任何需要做开发的项目都要到当地政府的规划部门申报审批。资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd The planning process申报流程申报流程ApplyPlanning authorityFormal decisionEight weeksFees payableAppeal to the Secretary of StateGrantedRefusedBeyond the time资产发展与财务-深圳-davi
25、dwangxd Planning constraints规划约束规划约束 There are a number of planning constraints which will affect redevelopment proposals.These can be summarised as greenbelts,national parks,areas of outstanding national beauty,areas of landscape value,strategic gaps,urban open space,scheduled ancient monuments and
26、 agricultural land.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Development plans开发规划开发规划 Structure plans（框架性规划）set the broad framework for planning at local level and they provide the strategic policy framework for planning and ensure that the development coincides with national policy.Local plans（具体规划）set out detailed
27、policies and specific proposals for the development and use of land.Unitary development plans（综合性规划）combine the structure plan and the local plan.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Development Control The density 容积率which is based on plot ratio FSI楼层系数(floor space index,where half the width of adjoining streets
28、 is added to the site in determining site area for density purposes).The residential density居住密度 is based on dwellings per hectare,houses per hectare Conservation area预留面积 or conservation of a particular building or tree 资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 5:MARKET RESEARCH市场调研市场调研 The formula for the est
29、imate(Chain method)M=N x Q x P where M is the total market potential,N is the number of buyers in the specific market,Q is the quantity purchased by an average buyer and P is the price of the average product.For instance,if there are two hundred hi-technology companies who wish to buy a new producti
30、on facility every five years and the average price of the facility is say 200,000 for an average floor space of 500 square metres,then the total market potential is approximately 40,000,000 over a five year period.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Research into a new shopping centre development(3 steps)新建购新建购物
31、中心项目的市场调研步骤物中心项目的市场调研步骤 Firstly,background analysis背景分析背景分析 Secondly,market analysis市场分析市场分析 Thirdly,an estimation of the size of the project建设状况预测建设状况预测资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdCHAPTER 3:THE RESIDUAL VALUATION AND GROUND RENTS余值法与地租余值法与地租 Section 1.The residual valuation余值法 Section 2.Calculation of th
32、e development profit开发利润的计算 Section 3.Calculation of ground rents 地租的计算 Section 4.Partnership schemes and equity sharing合伙计划资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 1:THE RESIDUAL VALUATION 余值法 Simplified Residual Calculation Case study(p36)The costs in a residual valuation which have to be deducted from the G
33、ross Development Value include余值法中，需要从总开发价值中扣减的成本包括:Building costs and fees建筑成本和费用.Fees on letting and advertising租赁费和广告费.Interest on costs利息.Contingencies不可预见费.Purchase costs of land 土地购置费(not the land value as this is the residual).Purchase costs would include fees on purchase and compensation for
34、 tenants to obtain vacant possession.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdFigure 3.1:S curve of building costs建设成本曲线建设成本曲线资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdDevelopment period:p39)figure开发周期图Planning Building Void InvestmentPeriodContract Periodsold orrefinanced0-6 -15-18 monthsInterest Charges:-Land Purchase 18 months -1/2 Bu
35、ilding cost 9 months Total cost 2/3 Fees and fees 3 months -Advertising,contingency,and agents fees 3 months资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdDevelopers Profit:p40)formula开发成本的转化公式This is a percentage based on the Gross Development Value or total cost.Say 20%total cost or say 17%Gross Development Value.These tw
36、o figures are inter-related,ie:GDV-Total Cost(TC)=Profit,if Profit=0.2 TC,then TC=P/0.2GDV-P/0.2=P,GDV=P+P/0.2 =0.2P+P =1.2P 0.2 0.2 thus P=GDV/6=16.5%GDVCASE STUDY :DEVELOPMENT VALUATION:p41-44)资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 3:CALCULATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT PROFIT开发利润计算开发利润计算(1)Capital profit on com
37、pletion(profit method)Expected capital value9,826,947Expected total costs:Building cost,fees and finance ontotal6,091,824Land cost 1,550,000Finance on land cost 15%over 1 years 429,488*8,071,312Residual profit 1,755,635*This is calculated by compound interest,ie 1,550,000 x(1+0.15)1.75-1,550,000.GDV
38、-(BC+LC)=P From the calculation:Profit as a percentage of total cost=1,755,635=21.8%8,071,312Profit as a percentage of capital value=1,755,635=17.9%9,826,947资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdAnnual profit if scheme is retained as an investment.年投资利润率的计算年投资利润率的计算Expected annual income687,680paExpected total cost
39、s:Building cost,fees and finance ontotal6,091,824Land cost1,550,000Finance on land cost 15%over 1 years 429,4888,071,312Development yield =687,680 =8.52%8,071,312Thus any return greater than 7%(6876809826947)could be the developers profit=1.52%.(1.52%.*100/7=21.8%)So,in the residual valuation approa
40、ch:Value-Cost=Profit on a capital basis and,Development yield-Investment yield=Developers profit on an annual basis.资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Alternative Approaches余值法和现金流量法余值法和现金流量法 The traditional residual technique is not adequate to deal with a more complex development situation where expenditure a
41、nd income are being incurred and received at different times over a long time scale传统的余值法无法解决收入和支出在不同期间发生的准确计算问题。.A residual valuation is very sensitive to slight variations in its different elements such as rent,initial yields,construction costs,finance rate and building period传统的余值法敏感性过高。Greater a
42、ccuracy can be achieved by using cash flow approaches;现金流量法是一种更为精确的方法。1.a cash flow method,using period by period cash flows on which interest can be charged;现今流量法使用逐期计算的方法解决利息的计算问题。2.a discounted cash flow method,as above except that the flows are discounted back to the present;折现的现金流量法解决折现问题。3.A D
43、CF approach,building inflation into costs and growth into rents.现金流量法可以把同伙膨胀因素考虑在内。资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxd Sensitivity and Risk敏感性（风险）分析要素敏感性（风险）分析要素1 Land Costs土地成本2 Ancillary Costs of Acquisition获取成本3 Pre-Building Contract Period建筑前期间4 Short Term Rate of Interest 短期利率5 Area of Building建设面积6 Buildin
44、g Costs建筑成本7 Professional Fees专业费用8 Building and Letting Period建设和租赁期9 Agents Fees代理费10 Advertising Costs广告费11 Rental Income租金12 Investors Yield投资回报资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSensitivity testing敏感性测试敏感性测试DevelopmentDevelopmentOn prime siteOn cheap site(land cost high in proportion (land cost low in to ot
45、her costs).proportion to other costs).GDV1,000,0001,000,000Total Costs(inc.finance)700,000 900,000Land Value 300,000 100,000Assume three scenarios for the above appraisals:i)Value and cost increase in the same proportion.In this case land value will increase in the same proportion.ii)Value increases
46、 by 30%,cost by 10%.Prime Development Site Other 1,300,0001,300,000 770,000 990,000Land Value 530,000 310,000 +77%+210%Thus,if value increases by more than cost,it affects land value more if the land value is small in proportion to the total value of the development.iii)Value increases 10%:Cost 20%G
47、DV1,100,0001,100,000Total Cost 840,000 1,080,000Land Value 260,000 20,000 -13%-80%资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 4:CALCULATION OF GROUND RENTS地租地租的计算的计算 This calculation is useful where developers or landowners do not dispose of completed developments but retain a proportion of income arising from th
48、e development.这种计算比较适合部分出售，部分出租的情况。资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdExample of ground rent calculationAssume the calculation of a ground rent on a 125 year lease with 5 year rent reviews.Estimated Income:500,000paYield:7%freehold:for a long lease,say 7.5%Finance costs:15%Estimated costs:5,000,000(all costs exc
49、ept land)Profit:20%costsCalculation:Income500,000paActual cost5,000,000Yield 7.5%,decapitalise by.075Return for risk and profit(20%of 7.5%say).015Total development yield.09Developers costs and profit450,000paGround rent available 50,000paFuture rent growth:If the future rent is divided up on the ori
50、ginal proportions agreed,it is called a proportional arrangement,as opposed to a geared arrangement.Thus:Future growth apportioned 50,000pa to local authority/landowner =ground rent 500,000pa total income=10%Developers return=450,000pa 500,000pa=90%资产发展与财务-深圳-davidwangxdSECTION 5PARTNERSHIP SCHEMES
