1、1管 理 學Planning Tools and Techniques 任維廉You can trust a crystal ball about as far as you throw it. Faith Popcorn, US futurologist 預測未來 趨勢專家 If Japan can, why cant we? Benchmarking23綱綱 要要9.1 評估環境之技術9.2 分配資源的技術9.3 其他規劃工具 49.1 評估環境之技術評估環境之技術Assessing the Environment1. 環境掃瞄 (scanning)2. 預測 (forecasting)3
2、. 標竿競爭 (benchmarking)討論：討論：績效評估矩陣圖與競爭形勢分析圖績效評估矩陣圖與競爭形勢分析圖5Environmental Scanning The screening of large amounts of information to anticipate and interpret change in the environment. Competitor Intelligence 知己知彼 May involve reverse engineering (p.269) of competing products to discover technical innov
3、ations. legal and ethical Global Scanning 6Exhibit 91 Forecasting Techniques Quantitative Time series analysis Regression models Econometric models Economic indicators Substitution effect Qualitative Jury of opinion Sales force composition Customer evaluation7Making Forecasting More Effective1.Use s
4、imple forecasting methods.2.Compare each forecast with its corresponding “no change” forecast.3.Dont rely on a single forecasting method.4.Dont assume that the turning points in a trend can be accurately identified.5.Shorten the time period covered by a forecast. 6.CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Fore
5、casting, and Replenishment) Software (p.271). A standardized way for organizations to use the Internet to exchange data.89.2 分配資源之技術分配資源之技術Allocating Resources1. 預算：收入，費用，利潤，現金2. 排程：Gantt圖，PERT網路分析圖3. 損益平衡分析4. 線性規劃討論：若只能在McDonald (7-eleven) 用餐，則在支出最少，且滿足最基本營養的前提下，應如何選購餐點之種類數量。9Exhibit 94 Suggestions
6、 for Improving Budgeting Collaborate and communicate. Be flexible. Goals should drive budgetsbudgets should not determine goals. Coordinate budgeting throughout the organization. Use budgeting/planning software when appropriate. Remember that budgets are tools. Remember that profits result from smar
7、t management, not because you budgeted for them.109.3 其他規劃工具其他規劃工具1.專案管理 軟體: Project 20002. 劇本為基礎之規劃3. 為未預期事件作準備 討論：1. 豐田汽車管理模式 2. TOC制約法 11補充：補充：Team work 1.Case study: a managers dilemma (p.267) 2.Thinking critically about ethics (p.270) 3.Internet-based exercise (p.284) 4.Team-based exercise (p.2
8、98) *5.Ethical Dilemma Exercise (p.288)12作業一作業一 上網作業上網作業進入未來世界學會（The World Future Society），看它的雜誌未來家（The Futurist），將會有助於你做環境預測及策略性思考，試著寫出你的心得。13回回 顧顧1. Competitive strategy VS. Benchmarking2. Budget: planning, controllingTerms to Know environmental scanning competitor intelligence forecasts quantitat
9、ive forecasting qualitative forecasting benchmarking resources budget scheduling Gantt chart load chart PERT network events activities slack time critical path breakeven analysis linear programming project project management scenario14Benchmarking The search for the best practices among competitors
10、and noncompetitors that lead to their superior performance. By analyzing and copying these practices, firms can improve their performance.15Exhibit 92 Steps in BenchmarkingSource: Based on Y.K. Shetty, “Aiming High: Competitive Benchmarking for Superior Performance,” Long Range Planning. February 19
11、93, p. 42.1617績效評估矩陣績效評估矩陣18競爭形勢分析圖競爭形勢分析圖19範例分析範例分析績效評估矩陣績效評估矩陣A2B2D1B5B1B4 D5B3 C2 C4 C5A5C1A1A4 C3A3D3 D4D203. 36. 69. 9033. 366. 699. 9總得分總得分權重權重20範例分析範例分析競爭形勢分析圖競爭形勢分析圖 Scheduling: Gantt ChartMonthActivityEdit ManuscriptDesign Sample PagesDraw ArtworkPrint Galley ProofsPrint Page ProofsDesign C
12、over1432Reporting DateGoalsActual Progress215A Load ChartMonthEditorsAnneAntonioKimMauriceDavePenny1Work scheduled234622Constructing an Office Building23Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Events: endpoints for completion. Activities: time required for each activity. Critical path: the pa
13、th (ordering) of activities that allows all tasks to be completed with the least slack time.2425A PERT NetworkAEBDFCHIGJKStart106146335553431526A PERT Network For Constructing An Office BuildingAEBDFCHIGJKStart1061463355534315 Breakeven = FC / P-avc$90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 2
14、0,000 10,000Revenue/Cost($)100200300400500600Output (in thousands)Breakeven PointTotal RevenueTotal CostsLossAreaProfitAreaVariableCostsFixedCosts Prentice Hall, 200227Production Data: Cinnamon Scented Products Prentice Hall, 20022829Graphical Solution to LP Problem100200300400500600Quantity of Potp
15、ourri Bags100200300400500600700Quantity of Selected CandlesDFBEACFeasibilityRegionProject Management ProcessDefineobjectivesEstablishsequencesIdentify activitiesand resourcesCompare withobjectivesEstimate timefor activitiesDetermineprojectcompletion dateDetermineadditionalresourcerequirements3031Exh
16、ibit 914Preparing for Unexpected Events Identify potential unexpected events. Determine if any of these events would have early indicators. Set up an information gathering system to identify early indicators. Have appropriate responses (plans) in place if these unexpected events occur. The Black Swan, 大眾運輸工具。大眾運輸工具。Source: S. Caudron, “Frontview Mirror,” Business Finance, December 1999, pp. 2430.32Theory of Constraint Goldratt, E. M, The Goal, 19841. 找出系統的制約因素2. 充分開拓這項制約因素的潛能3. 所有其他環節全力配合4. 減輕制約因素的負擔5. 若已打破制約因素，則回到步驟一* Its not luck. Critical chain, Necessary but not sufficient.
