1、OECD Economic OutlookDecember 2020PRELIMINARY VERSIONOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK108DECEMBER 2020PRELIMINARY VERSIONThis work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OEC
2、D member countries.This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.The statistical data for Israel are su
3、pplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Note by TurkeyThe information in this doc
4、ument with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the con
5、text of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this
6、document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Please cite this publication as:OECD (2020), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 2: Preliminary version, No. 108, OECD Publishing, Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/39a88ab1-en.ISBN 978-92-64-68013-5
7、 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-86175-6 (pdf)OECD Economic Outlook ISSN 0474-5574 (print)ISSN 1609-7408 (online)Photo credits: Cover Alliance Images/Shutterstock.Corrigenda to publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. OECD 2020The use of this work, whether digital or
8、 print, is governed by the Terms and Conditions to be found at http:/www.oecd.org/termsandconditions. 3OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020Table of contentsEditorial Turning hope into reality1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situationIntroductionThe glob
9、al recovery remains partial and uneven A gradual recovery amidst persisting uncertaintyPolicy requirements BibliographyAnnex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections7111214293955585960732. Issues notes on current policy challengesIssue Note 1. The OECD Weekly Tracker of activity
10、based on Google TrendsIssue Note 2. Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responsesIssue Note 3. Post-financial-crisis changes to monetary policy frameworks: Driving factors and remaining challengesIssue Note 4. Walking the tightrope: Avoiding a
11、 lockdown while containing the virus86983 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economiesArgentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Colombia Costa RicaCzech RepublicDenmark Estonia Euro area Finland France Germany Greece Hungary11111211511812112412813113
12、51381421451481511541571611641681721754 Iceland178India181Indonesia185Ireland189Israel192Italy195Japan199Korea203Latvia206Lithuania209Luxembourg212Mexico215Netherlands218New Zealand221Norway224Poland227Portugal230Romania233Slovak Republic236Slovenia239South Africa242Spain245Sweden248Switzerland251Tur
13、key254United Kingdom257United States261OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020FIGURESFigure 1.1. Output rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 after the sharp contraction in the first half of the year 14 Figure 1.2. Growth outcomes in the second quarter of 2020 are
14、associated with differences in national containment measures and mobilityFigure 1.3. The pace of the recovery has slowedFigure 1.4. The impact of the pandemic on activity remains severe in some service sectors Figure 1.5. There are signs of financial fragilities in some service sectorsFigure 1.6. Un
15、certainty about the pandemic is expected to persist for some timeFigure 1.7. Global trade is slowly recovering, but international travel remains at very low levels Figure 1.8. Selected indicators about bank depositsFigure 1.9. The resurgence of the virus is hitting activity in affected countries Fig
16、ure 1.10. Labour market conditions are recovering slowlyFigure 1.11. Lower-skilled and low-wage workers have been particularly affected Figure 1.12. Financial market conditions have partly normalisedFigure 1.13. Growth is projected to remain moderate with long-lasting costsFigure 1.14. Labour market
17、 conditions are expected to remain subdued Figure 1.15. Inflation is projected to remain lowFigure 1.16. There is considerable uncertainty around the baseline projection Figure 1.17. Non-COVID-19-related import-restrictive measures continue to riseFigure 1.18. The global monetary policy stance was e
18、ased substantially in the first half of 2020 Figure 1.19. Changes in the discretionary fiscal stance vary across countriesFigure 1.20. Fiscal policy is providing considerable support to growth Figure 1.21. Government budget deficits and debt will widenFigure 1.22. Vulnerabilities in emerging-market
19、economiesFigure 1.23. Many of the sectors heavily affected by the pandemic are employment-intensive16182021222224252627283032333639414445464750OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020 5Figure 1.24. Further reforms are required to help all workers acquire new skills52
20、Figure 1.25. Labour productivity gaps between frontier firms and others remain wide54 Figure 1.26. Changes in the composition of energy investment are need to meet environmental objectives 55 Figure 2.1. Quarterly model: out-of-sample simulations64Figure 2.2. The OECD Weekly Tracker: United States65
21、Figure 2.3. The OECD Weekly Tracker: selected advanced G20 economies in 202066Figure 2.4. The OECD Weekly Tracker: emerging G20 economies in 202067Figure 2.5. Most recent predictions of the OECD Weekly Tracker69Figure 2.6. Google search intensities per spending categories70 Figure 2.7. A substantial
22、 portion of otherwise viable firms is predicted to become distressed76 Figure 2.8. The impact of the shock is heterogeneous across types of sectors and firms77Figure 2.9. Firms leverage is expected to increase in the aftermath of the crisis78Figure 2.10. A large portion of otherwise viable firms wil
23、l find it hard to service their debt78Figure 2.11. High financial leverage decreases investment80 Figure 2.12. Household inflation expectations tend to exceed realised inflation and targets92 Figure 2.13. Persistent deflation has taken place for some categories of goods and services93 Figure 2.14. L
24、ink between mobility and GDP forecast revisions at a quarterly frequency for the first and second quarters of 2020 98 Figure 2.15. Percentage of countries at different stringency levels for containment policies100 Figure 2.16. The estimated effect of containment policies and natural caution on mobil
25、ity101Figure 2.17. Median and interquartile range for the effective reproduction rate (R)102Figure 2.18. Effect of containment policies and public health policies on (logged) R104 Figure 2.19. Percentage of countries at different stringency levels for testing and contact tracing105 Figure 2.20. Styl
26、ised scenarios: from the first outbreak of the virus, through lockdown and exit109TABLESTable 1.1. A gradual but uneven global recovery13Table 1.2. Asset purchases and lending/liquidity support measures by key central banks since early-2020 41 Table 1.3. The use of selected lending and liquidity sup
27、port programmes42Table 2.1. Standard indicators were outpaced by the crisis60Table 2.2. Monetary policy frameworks in selected economies87Table 2.3. Scoring of different stringency levels of containment policies99 Table 2.4. Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker: Scoring of testing and contact
28、 tracing variables 105 Table 2.5. OECD scoring of additional public health measures106Table 2.6. Scenario assumptions and outcomes for R and mobility1096 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020Conventional signs$US dollar.Decimal pointJapanese yenI, IICalendar half-
29、yearsPound sterlingQ1, Q4Calendar quartersEuroBillionThousand millionmb/dMillion barrels per dayTrillionThousand billion. .Data not availables.a.a.r.Seasonally adjusted at annual rates0Nil or negligiblen.s.a.Not seasonally adjustedIrrelevant 7OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY V
30、ERSION OECD 2020EditorialTurning hope into realityFor the first time since the pandemic began, there is now hope for a brighter future. Progress with vaccines and treatment have lifted expectations and uncertainty has receded. Thanks to unprecedented government and central bank action, global activi
31、ty has rapidly recovered in many sectors, though some service activities remain impaired by physical distancing. The collapse in employment has partially reversed, but large numbers of people remain underemployed. Most firms have survived, albeit financially weakened in many cases. Without massive p
32、olicy support, the economic and social situation would have been calamitous. The worst has been avoided, most of the economic fabric has been preserved and could revive quickly, but the situation remains precarious for many vulnerable people, firms and countries.The road ahead is brighter but challe
33、nging. At the time of writing, the global death toll has risen to 1 million, subsequent waves have hit many countries and the first one continues unabated in others. While waiting for effective vaccinations to be widely distributed or some breakthrough in treatment, hopefully in the course of 2021 f
34、or most, managing the pandemic will still impose strains on the economy. Economic activity will continue with fewer face-to-face interactions and partly-closed borders for a few more quarters. Some sectors will regain strength, others will be on standstill. Developing or emerging-market economies, w
35、here tourism is important, will continue to see their situation deteriorate and will require more international aid. Policies will have to continue to sustain economic activity forcefully, all the more so with the end of the health crisis in sight.The global economy will gain momentum over the comin
36、g two years, with global GDP at pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. After a sharp decline this year, global GDP is projected to rise by around 4 per cent in 2021 and a further 3 per cent in 2022. Scientific progress, pharmaceutical advances, more effective tracing and isolation, and adjustments
37、in the behaviour of people and firms will help keep the virus in check, allowing restrictions on mobility to be lifted progressively. Importantly, policies to support jobs and firms, in place since the beginning of the pandemic, will enable a faster rebound when restrictions are lifted. Together wit
38、h reduced uncertainty, these improvements should encourage the use of accumulated savings to fuel consumption and investment. The exceptional fiscal relief provided throughout 2020 - and needed beyond - will pay off handsomely. The rebound will be stronger and faster as more and more activities re-o
39、pen, limiting the aggregate income loss from the crisis.We project the recovery will be uneven across countries, potentially leading to lasting changes in the world economy. The countries and regions with effective test, track and isolate systems, where vaccination will be deployed rapidly, are like
40、ly to perform relatively well, though the overall weakness of global demand will hold them back. China, which started recovering earlier, is projected to grow strongly, accounting for over one-third of world economic growth in 2021. OECD economies will rebound, growing at 3.3% in 2021, but recoverin
41、g only partially from the deep 2020 recession. The contribution of Europe and North America to global growth will remain smaller than their weight in the world economy.OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 20208 The outlook continues to be exceptionally uncertain, with
42、 both upside and downside risks. On the upside, efficient vaccination campaigns and better co-operation between countries could accelerate the distribution of the vaccine worldwide. Conversely, the current resurgence of the virus in many places reminds us that governments may be forced again to tigh
43、ten restrictions on economic activity, especially if the distribution of effective vaccines progresses slowly. And confidence would take a hit if vaccine distribution or secondary effects proved disappointing. The toll on the economy could be severe, in turn raising the risk of financial turmoil fro
44、m fragile sovereigns and corporates, with global spillovers.Despite the huge policy band-aid, and even in an upside scenario, the pandemic will have damaged the socio-economic fabric of countries worldwide. Output is projected to remain around 5% below pre-crisis expectations in many countries in 20
45、22, raising the spectre of substantial permanent costs from the pandemic. The most vulnerable will continue to suffer disproportionately. Smaller firms and entrepreneurs are more likely to go out of business. Many low wage earners have lost their jobs and are only covered by unemployment insurance,
46、at best, with poor prospects of finding new jobs soon. People living in poverty and usually less well covered by social safety nets have seen their situation deteriorate even further. Children and youth from less well-off backgrounds, and less qualified adult workers have struggled to learn and work
47、 from home, with potentially long lasting damage.Governments will have to continue using their policy instruments actively, with better targeting to help those hardest hit by the pandemic. The fact that vaccines are in sight suggests that this is not the time to reduce support, as was done too early
48、 in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Rather it confirms health and economic policies must work hand in hand. Public health measures have to double down to limit the impact of renewed virus outbreaks and the associated restrictions. It is also crucial that policymakers ensure continuous
49、fiscal support to keep sectors, firms and the associated jobs alive. The lessons from the past nine months are that such policy action was and remains appropriate. Monetary and fiscal policies will need to continue working vigorously in the same direction, at least as long as the health crisis threa
50、tens otherwise viable economic activities and employment.Heightened policy activism need not be a concern if deployed to deliver higher and fairer growth. Extensive fiscal support is pushing public debt levels to record highs, but the cost of debt is at record lows. A striking feature of the outlook
