1、A Brief Interpretation of Detection and Attribution of Climate A Brief Interpretation of Detection and Attribution of Climate ChangeChange from IPCC Fifth Assessment Reportfrom IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsBefore the TopicDetection Detection&AttributionAttribution1
2、IntroductionDetection and AttributionConception the attribution of climate change at a certain level Methods optimal fingerprinting、Bayesian methodsDriversDrivers of Climate Changeof Climate Change2Drivers of Climate ChangeVolcanic forcingGreenhouse GasSolar forcingAerosolSurface ConditionsClimate r
3、esponseNatural DriversVolcanic forcingNatural DriversVolcanic forcingHuman Activity Assessed likely ranges(whiskers)and their midpoints(bars)for warming trends over the 19512010 period due to well-mixed greenhouse gases(GHG),anthropogenic forcings(ANT)anthropogenic forcings other than well-mixed gre
4、enhouse gases(OA),natural forcings(NAT)and internal variability.The trend in the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4(HadCRUT4)observations is shown in black with its 5 to 95%uncertainty range due only to observational uncertainty in this record.Human ActivitySurface temperatureDrivers of Climate ChangeMost Important One Human ActivitySurface TemperatureWater Cycle OceanClimate ExtremesCryosphereC Conclusiononclusion3
