1、宏观经济学曼昆版PPTIn this chapter,we are going to study1.The concept of present value and its calculation2.Ways of managing risks3.Diversification of idiosyncratic risk4.Fundamental analysis5.Efficient markets hypothesis Finance is the field that studies how people make decisions regarding the allocation o
2、f resources over time and the handling of risk.PRESENT VALUE:MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY Present value refers to the amount of money today that would be needed to produce,using prevailing interest rates,a given future amount of money.PRESENT VALUE:MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY The concept
3、of present value demonstrates the following:Receiving a given sum of money in the present is preferred to receiving the same sun in the future.In order to compare values at different points in time,compare their present values.Firms undertake investment projects if the present value of the project e
4、xceeds the cost.PRESENT VALUE:MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY If r is the interest rate,then an amount X to be received in N years has present value of:X/(1+r)NPRESENT VALUE:MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY The amount of money in the future that an amount of money today will yield,given prevailin
5、g interest rates,is called the future value.FYI:Rule of 70 According to the,if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year,then that variable doubles in approximately.MANAGING RISK A person is said to be risk averse if she exhibits a dislike of uncertainty.MANAGING RISK Individuals can reduc
6、e risk choosing any of the following:Buy insurance Diversify Accept a lower return on their investmentsFigure 1 Risk AversionWealth0UtilityCurrentwealth$1,000gain$1,000lossUtility lossfrom losing$1,000Utility gainfrom winning$1,000Copyright2004 South-WesternThe Markets for Insurance One way to deal
7、with risk is to buy.The general feature of insurance contracts is that a person facing a risk pays a fee to an insurance company,which in return agrees to accept all or part of the risk.Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk Diversification refers to the reduction of risk achieved by replacing a sing
8、le risk with a large number of smaller unrelated risks.Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects only a single person.The uncertainty associated with specific companies.Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk Aggregate risk is the risk that affects all economic
9、actors at once,the uncertainty associated with the entire economy.Diversification cannot remove aggregate risk.Figure 2 DiversificationNumber ofStocks inPortfolio49(More risk)(Less risk)20014 6 8102040Risk(standarddeviation ofportfolio return)AggregateriskIdiosyncraticrisk30Copyright2004 South-Weste
10、rnDiversification of Idiosyncratic Risk People can reduce risk by accepting a lower rate of return.Figure 3 The Tradeoff between Risk and ReturnRisk(standarddeviation)051015208.33.1Return(percentper year)50%stocks25%stocksNostocks100%stocks75%stocksCopyright2004 South-WesternASSET VALUATION Fundamen
11、tal analysis is the study of a companys accounting statements and future prospects to determine its value.ASSET VALUATION People can employ fundamental analysis to try to determine if a stock is undervalued,overvalued,or fairly valued.The goal is to buy undervalued stock.Efficient Markets Hypothesis
12、 The efficient markets hypothesis is the theory that asset prices reflect all publicly available information about the value of an asset.Efficient Markets Hypothesis A market is informationally efficient when it reflects all available information in a rational way.If markets are efficient,the only t
13、hing an investor can do is buy a diversified portfolioCASE STUDY:Random Walks and Index Funds Random walk refers to the path of a variable whose changes are impossible to predict.If markets are efficient,all stocks are fairly valued and no stock is more likely to appreciate than another.Thus stock p
14、rices follow a random walk.Summary Because savings can earn interest,a sum of money today is more valuable than the same sum of money in the future.A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.The present value of any future sum is the amount that would be needed
15、 today,given prevailing interest rates,to produce the future sum.Summary Because of diminishing marginal utility,most people are risk averse.Risk-averse people can reduce risk using insurance,through diversification,and by choosing a portfolio with lower risk and lower returns.The value of an asset,
16、such as a share of stock,equals the present value of the cash flows the owner of the share will receive,including the stream of dividends and the final sale price.Summary According to the efficient markets hypothesis,financial markets process available information rationally,so a stock price always
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