1、Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 国际经济学英文国际经济学英文 完整教学课件完整教学课件 Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 1 Introduction Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-3
2、 Preview What is international economics about? Gains from trade Explaining patterns of trade The effects of government policies on trade International finance topics International trade versus international finance Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-4 What Is Internationa
3、l Economics About? International economics is about how nations interact through trade of goods and services, through flows of money and through investment. International economics is an old subject, but it continues to grow in importance as countries become tied to the international economy. Nation
4、s are more closely linked through trade in goods and services, through flows of money, and through investment than ever before. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-5 What Is International Economics About? (cont.) International trade as a fraction of the national economy has
5、 tripled for the U.S. in the past 40 years. Compared to the U.S., other countries are even more tied to international trade. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-6 Fig. 1-1: Exports and Imports as a Percentage of U.S. National Income Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
6、Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-7 Fig. 1-2: Exports and Imports as Percentage of National Income in 2005 Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-8 Gains from Trade Several ideas underlie
7、 the gains from trade 1. When a buyer and a seller engage in a voluntary transaction, both receive something that they want and both can be made better off. Norwegian consumers could buy oranges through international trade that they otherwise would have a difficult time producing. The producer of th
8、e oranges receives income that it can use to buy the things that it desires. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-9 Gains from Trade (cont.) 2.How could a country that is the most (least) efficient producer of everything gain from trade? With a finite amount of resources, co
9、untries can use those resources to produce what they are most productive at (compared to their other production choices), then trade those products for goods and services that they want to consume. Countries can specialize in production, while consuming many goods and services through trade. Copyrig
10、ht 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-10 Gains from Trade (cont.) 3.Trade is predicted to benefit a country by making it more efficient when it exports goods which use abundant resources and imports goods which use scarce resources. 4.When countries specialize, they may also be more
11、 efficient due to large scale production. 5.Countries may also gain by trading current resources for future resources (lending and borrowing). Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-11 Gains from Trade (cont.) Trade is predicted to benefit countries as a whole in several ways,
12、 but trade may harm particular groups within a country. International trade can adversely affect the owners of resources that are used intensively in industries that compete with imports. Trade may therefore have effects on the distribution of income within a country. Conflicts about trade should oc
13、cur between groups within countries rather than between countries. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-12 Patterns of Trade Differences in climate and resources can explain why Brazil exports coffee and Australia exports iron ore. But why does Japan export automobiles, whil
14、e the U.S. exports aircraft? Differences in labor productivity may explain why some countries export certain products. How relative supplies of capital, labor and land are used in the production of different goods and services may also explain why some countries export certain products. Copyright 20
15、09 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-13 The Effects of Government Policies on Trade Policy makers affect the amount of trade through tariffs: a tax on imports or exports, quotas: a quantity restriction on imports or exports, export subsidies: a payment to producers that export, or throu
16、gh other regulations (ex., product specifications) that exclude foreign products from the market, but still allow domestic products. What are the costs and benefits of these policies? Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-14 The Effects of Government Policies on Trade (cont.)
17、 Economists design models that try to measure the effects of different trade policies. If a government must restrict trade, which policy should it use? If a government must restrict trade, how much should it restrict trade? If a government restricts trade, what are the costs if foreign governments r
18、espond likewise? Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-15 International Finance Topics Governments measure the value of exports and imports, as well as the value of financial assets that flow into and out of their countries. Related to these two measures is the measure of off
19、icial settlements balance, or the balance of payments: the balance of funds that central banks use for official international payments. All three values are measured in the governments national income accounts. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-16 International Finance To
20、pics (cont.) Besides financial asset flows and the official settlements balance, exchange rates are also an important financial issue for most governments. Exchange rates measure how much domestic currency can be exchanged for foreign currency. They also affect how much goods that are denominated in
21、 foreign currency (imports) cost. And they affect how much goods denominated in domestic currency (exports) cost in foreign markets. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-17 International Trade Versus International Finance International trade focuses on transactions of goods
22、and services across nations. These transactions usually involve a physical movement of goods or a commitment of tangible resources like labor services. International finance focuses on financial or monetary transactions across nations. For example, purchases of U.S. dollars or financial assets by Eu
23、ropeans. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-18 A Road Map International trade topics International trade theory (chapters 27) International trade policy (chapters 811) International finance topics Exchange rates and open economy macroeconomics (chapters 1217) International
24、 macroeconomic policy (chapters 1822) Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-20 Preview The largest trading partners of the U.S. Gravity model: influ
25、ence of an economys size on trade distance and other factors that influence trade Borders and trade agreements Globalization: then and now Changing composition of trade Service outsourcing Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-21 Who Trades with Whom? The 5 largest trading pa
26、rtners with the U.S. in 2005 were Canada, China, Mexico Japan and Germany. The total value imports from and exports to Canada in 2005 was about $500 billion dollars. The largest 10 trading partners with the U.S. accounted for 56% of the value of U.S. trade in 2005. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wes
27、ley. All rights reserved. 2-22 Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-23 Size Matters: The Gravity Model 3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2005 were also the 3 largest Euro
28、pean economies: Germany, UK, and France. These countries have the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe. GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy. Why does the U.S. trade most with these European countries and not other European countries? Copyright 2009 Pearson A
29、ddison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-24 Size Matters: The Gravity Model (cont.) In fact, the size of an economy is directly related to the volume of imports and exports. Larger economies produce more goods and services, so they have more to sell in the export market. Larger economies generate more
30、income from the goods and services sold, so people are able to buy more imports. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-25 Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission Cop
31、yright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-26 The Gravity Model Other things besides size matter for trade: 1.Distance between markets influences transportation costs and therefore the cost of imports and exports. Distance may also influence personal contact and communication, which
32、may influence trade. 2.Cultural affinity: if two countries have cultural ties, it is likely that they also have strong economic ties. 3.Geography: ocean harbors and a lack of mountain barriers make transportation and trade easier. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-27 The
33、Gravity Model (cont.) 4.Multinational corporations: corporations spread across different nations import and export many goods between their divisions. 5.Borders: crossing borders involves formalities that take time and perhaps monetary costs like tariffs. These implicit and explicit costs reduce tra
34、de. The existence of borders may also indicate the existence of different languages (see 2) or different currencies, either of which may impede trade more. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-28 The Gravity Model (cont.) In its basic form, the gravity model assumes that onl
35、y size and distance are important for trade in the following way: Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij where Tij is the value of trade between country i and country j A is a constant Yi the GDP of country i Yj is the GDP of country j Dij is the distance between country i and country j Copyright 2009 Pearson Addis
36、on-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-29 The Gravity Model (cont.) In a slightly more general form, the gravity model that is commonly estimated is Tij = A x Yia x Yjb /Dijc where a, b, and c are allowed to differ from 1. Perhaps surprisingly, the gravity model works fairly well in predicting actual tra
37、de flows, as the figure above representing U.S.EU trade flows suggested. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-30 Distance and Borders Estimates of the effect of distance from the gravity model predict that a 1% increase in the distance between countries is associated with a
38、decrease in the volume of trade of 0.7% to 1%. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-31 Distance and Borders (cont.) Besides distance, borders increase the cost and time needed to trade. Trade agreements between countries are intended to reduce the formalities and tariffs nee
39、ded to cross borders, and therefore to increase trade. The gravity model can assess the effect of trade agreements on trade: does a trade agreement lead to significantly more trade among its partners than one would otherwise predict given their GDPs and distances from one another? Copyright 2009 Pea
40、rson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-32 Distance and Borders (cont.) The U.S. signed a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada in 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Because of NAFTA and because Mexico and Canada are close to the U.S., the amount of trade between the U.
41、S. and its northern and southern neighbors as a fraction of GDP is larger than between the U.S. and European countries. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-33 Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, European Commission Co
42、pyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-34 Distance and Borders (cont.) Yet even with a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada, which use a common language, the border between these countries still seems to be associated with a reduction in trade. Copyright 2009 Pearson
43、 Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-35 Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-36 Table 2-3: Trade with British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996 Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights
44、reserved. 2-37 Has the World Become Smaller? The negative effect of distance on trade according to the gravity models is significant, but it has grown smaller over time due to modern transportation and communication. Wheels, sails, compasses, railroads, telegraph, steam power, automobiles, telephone
45、s, airplanes, computers, fax machines, internet, fiber optics, personal digital assistants, GPS satellites are technologies that have increased trade. But history has shown that political factors, such as wars, can change trade patterns much more than innovations in transportation and communication.
46、 Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-38 Has the World Become Smaller? (cont.) There were two waves of globalization. 18401914: economies relied on steam power, railroads, telegraph, telephones. Globalization was interrupted and reversed by wars and depression. 1945present:
47、economies rely on telephones, airplanes, computers, internet, fiber optics, PDAs, GPS satellites Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-39 Has the World Become Smaller? (cont.) Only in the last few decades has international trade become more important to the British economy th
48、an it was in 1910. Even today, international trade is less important for the U.S. than it was to the UK before 1910. Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-40 Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of International Trade Since 1830 Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999). Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-41 Changing C
