1、Hydrogen seems destined to play a part in tomorrows energy plan. How should your company prepare? By Aaron Denman, Mark Porter, Peter Parry, and Peter Meijer Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future Copyright 2021 Bain SMR=steam methane reforming; CCUS=carbon capture, utilization and storage.
2、 Gray hydrogen is hydrogen made from fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, or oil. Blue hydrogen is also made from fossil fuels, but uses carbon capture and storage as mitigation. Green hydrogen is made from renewable sources. Sources: IEA; IRENA; Bain BNEF; IRENA 2020 115 2030 120 135 150 2050 185 3
3、00 335 2020 baseline Focused uptake Integrated industry uptake Accelerated uptake Hydrogen demand (Million metric tons) Scenarios: We could also see an accelerated uptake scenario in which, for example, hydrogen plays a role as fuel for power production or energy storage for renewables, depending on
4、 the decarbonization plans of major power utilities. However, given the uncertainties in the uptake of technologies and relative competitiveness of hydrogen, adoption could be much slower, which would result in something closer to our focused uptake scenario with an estimate of 185 Mtons by 2050. Bo
5、th blue and green hydrogen (that is, hydrogen from low-carbon and zero-carbon sources) make up less than 1% of total hydrogen production today. Signifi cant advances in technology and experience will have to occur to make these competitive, along with more renewable energy, infrastructure for the tr
6、ansport and storage of hydrogen, and a large installed base of industrial applications to nurture growth. Public investments will be required to create the right initial opportunities and catalyze market growth until hydrogen, blue or green, can be competitive at scale on its own. Winning in the hyd
7、rogen value chain All this may look very far away, and many companies have pressing priorities in 2021. Still, given the potential for hydrogen to play a meaningful role in the energy transition, companies should get started now to defi ne how they will participate and take advantage of this massive
8、 opportunity. Here are fi ve ways to get started. Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future 4 Think future-back to understand hydrogens potential. For every participant in the market, the fi rst step is understanding which applications across sectors have the greatest potential to adopt hydrog
9、en, and recognizing the underlying drivers. This involves looking not only at costs, but also at competi- tive alternatives, sources of supply, enabling technologies and regulatory policy, both international, federal, and local. Across applications, demand will be driven in two ways: In some cases,
10、hydrogen could be the single best solution to reduce emissions, where customers are willing to pay for itfor example, blast furnace-based steelmaking or cement production. Adoption is predictable, but depends on the business case, ease of transitioning, and asset replacement schedules. In other case
11、s, hydrogen will need to be cost competitive against other low- or zero-carbon solutions. Here, adoption speed will depend on factors like the availability of low-cost renewable energy to make green hydrogen and the availability of alternative supply chain infrastructure for hydrogen (see Figure 3).
12、 Long-term competitiveness needs to be based on market forces, but in the near term policymakers can help shape the development of the hydrogen economy by encouraging investment or direct funding that may allow hydrogen to move quicker along the experience curve. The development of renewable power g
13、eneration offers an analogy. Direct subsidies from federal governments (for example, wind and solar tax credits in the US) helped accelerate adoption of renew- able technologies down a steep learning curve such that they are competitive today, without subsidies, with fossil generation in many market
14、s around the world. The creation and maturation of the hydrogen market will require similar support, and we are already seeing budding examples in the European Union and specifi c European countries, including the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, and Poland. Choose your focus and participation
15、 model. As the hydrogen markets value chain develops, so too will supply, production, and logistics chokepoints that infl uence the pace of adoption. To gain a sustainable competitive advantage, companies need to understand these chokepoints and how they infl uence the relative attractiveness of par
16、ticipation models. Effective participation models start with strong positions that capitalize on existing capabilities and expertise, while setting a trajectory toward future profi t pools. Lead times to positive cash fl ow can be long, so companies need to choose carefully and commit to staying the
17、 course as the market develops, avoiding the temptation to respond to business cycles and short-term priorities. Industry partners will be important, not only to spread risk but also to share knowledge, avoid high learning costs, and build positions in adjacent fi elds. Some partnerships are already
18、 underway, and four main models are taking shape: Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future 5 Figure 3: Hydrogen could be cost competitive with some low-carbon substitutes by 2030 Regional trains Trucks Urban delivery vans Coaches and buses Ferries Taxis, light-duty trucks Midsize vehicles Com
19、pact urban cars Synfuel for aviation Forklifts Blending hydrogen into existing gas networks New networks Combined heat and power Simple cycle turbine Combined cycle turbine Backup generation Remote generation Mid-grade heating (250600 F) High-grade heating (above 600 F) Steel Ammonia, methanol, refi
20、ning Cost competitiveness of hydrogen applications 2020202520302035204020452050 Transport Cost competitive in .Optimal conditionsAverage conditions Industrial feedstock Note: In some cases, hydrogen may be the only realistic alternative, e.g., for long-range heavy-duty transport and industrial zones
21、 without access to CCS Source: Bain & Company analysis ks Heat and power for buildings Heat and power for industry Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future 6 Project consortia. Players across the value chain team up to accomplish specifi c projects. For example, a consortium of 10 private and
22、 public sector partners are collaborating on the North-C- Methanol project in Belgium. This project brings together a full range of expertise required to capitalize on the hydrogen opportunity and demonstrate how hydrogen can contribute to building a circular, more sustainable economy. The raw mater
23、ials (water, renewable energy) are extracted locally while the fi nished products (green methanol) and derivative fl ows are all used locally (for example, by customers such as ArcelorMittal, Alco Bio Fuel, and Yara). Securing production and system integration. Engineering and construction fi rms, o
24、il companies, and hydrogen companies invest in hydrogen production facilities and offer system integration services across the value chain. JVs and minority share investments. Suppliers and end users take minority shares or team up to offer production or other services at other key points of the val
25、ue chain. New business expansion. Value chain players, including renewables developers, engineering fi rms, and logistics companies, move into adjacent businesses. Defi ne a robust yet fl exible execution plan and monitor signposts. With a clear view of the potential for hydrogen applications in the
26、ir industry, companies can begin to form an action plan with no-regrets moves and low-risk options for capital investment. As with any strategy under uncertainty, executives will want to monitor critical signposts to identify market changes early, allowing them to shift directions and make bets more
27、 confi dentlyall while balancing risk profi les and investment intensity with the expected longer-term rewards (see Figure 4). Given the uncertainties in the hydrogen market, strategic plans should remain fl exible and resilient, with options to scale or pivot if signposts are triggered. Leading pla
28、yers in the development of the global battery materials market adopted a similar strategy when they realized that growth in battery materials would be driven by automotive electrifi cation. Robust market scenarios were tracked and linked to signposts such as specifi c battery technology and cost dev
29、elopment, cell maker investments and focus, and automakers platform developments. These insights informed their investment decisions to create leading positions early on and pathways to sustained long-term profi ts. Choose the best opportunities and launch fi rst projects. As with any developing mar
30、ket, hydrogen growth is likely to concentrate around clusters of demand and supply potential, and we expect to see several waves of opportunity. Initial sweet spots are already emerging where existing hydrogen demand can be met with competitively priced supply. These can be areas with a supply of lo
31、w-cost hydrogen (as in Chile, the Middle East, and Australia) or areas where alternatives are expensive (for example, steel production in remote areas in Scandinavia), or where government incentives compensate for incremental cost, as in industrial clusters in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.
32、Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future 7 Figure 4: Companies can track development of hydrogen markets by monitoring signposts Source: Bain & Company Broader and more aggressive carbon taxes Explicit policies, pledges, and investments to create incentives to use hydrogen Policy shift on rol
33、e of next-generation nuclear Increasing restrictions on water consumption Movement on the cost and experience curves for key hydrogen technologies (electrolyzers, fuel cells) and substitutes (wind, solar, batteries, nuclear, carbon capture and storage) Movement on the cost and experience curve for e
34、lectrification (heat pumps, EVs) Technical progress on storage, including safety More investment in distribution, including hydrogen tankers and refueling systems Formation of a hydrogen market, including marketing, trading, and storage Elimination of bottlenecks, such as dry dock capacity for conve
35、rting ships to hydrogen power More customers committing to use hydrogen and products that rely on hydrogen, including transportation, steel, and synfuels Viable projects running at scale Customers more willing to pay higher price for low-carbon products TechnologyInfrastructureCustomerPolicy For lon
36、ger term opportunities, companies can adopt a test-and-learn approach, leveraging early sweet spots to gain a head start. These opportunities will center around applications where hydrogen helps meet decarbonization ambitions (as with most industrial applications), or where hydrogen uptake may be mo
37、st signifi cant despite uncertainties (for example, specifi c niches of heavy-duty, fuel-cell vehicles). LNG markets developed in a similar way over the past decade, as producers sought out low-cost supply and built up shipping, export facilities, and other necessary infrastructure to deliver to kno
38、wn pockets of demand. Where hydrogen costs are competitive, adoption is likely to occur more quickly, allowing those players to develop deep experience with their applications, and possibly to prepare their capabilities and infrastructure for broader markets. Governments will play an important role
39、as catalysts, stimu- lating demand through emissions rules and pushing down costs with investments and incentives. Defi ne the right operating model to align hydrogen within business priorities. New initiatives often struggle to fi nd their place within existing operating models, particularly when t
40、hese new opportunities threaten to cannibalize the current business or promise to upend traditional processes. In some com- panies, hydrogen efforts will be extensions of the core business, while for others they will represent second engines of growth (for more, see the Bain Brief “The Engine 2 Impe
41、rative: New Business Innovation and Profi table Growth under Turbulence”). Depending on the strategy, participation Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future 8 model, and distance from the core business, hydrogen may need support to ensure its progress. Three areas of focus can help ensure hyd
42、rogens place in the organizations business priorities. Ownership and accountability. Decide who manages the long-term hydrogen roadmap, including collaboration with external partners, and helping the organization monitor the critical signposts and associated decisionsfor example, new minimum viable
43、projects and targeted M&A. Long-term investment. Ensure suffi cient and sustainable funding to mobilize around the opportunity, nurture hydrogens progress, and avoid becoming contingent on other business priorities with shorter payoff. This is more about mobilization than traditional deployment of c
44、apital. Relationship to core. Determine how the hydrogen effort will work with the rest of the company to ensure its success, including tapping talent and capabilities, mobilizing rapidly, and scaling to achieve effi ciencies. Start today While the path of the hydrogen market is uncertain, its uncer
45、tain for everyone alike. Companies can begin to build and extend a strategic advantage in hydrogen by developing a greater understanding of market factors and the underlying constraints and opportunities of their specifi c place in the hydrogen value chain. Leaders will train their focus on the cust
46、omer and avoid getting distracted by technology. Collaborations with key partners, selective M&A activity, and subsidized pilot projects can help companies build market position as prices decline. The fi ve imperatives outlined here shouldnt be approached sequentially: Executives should move on all
47、fi ve to speed their progress along the experience curve and gain a stronger competitive position. As with any strategy under uncertainty, they should move ahead with optionality and continue to adjust as some opportunities lose their luster and as others present themselves. Bold ideas. Bold teams.
48、Extraordinary results. Bain & Company is a global consultancy that helps the worlds most ambitious change makers define the future. Across 59 offices in 37 countries, we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results, outperform the competition, and re
49、define industries. We complement our tailored, integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better, faster, and more enduring outcomes. Our 10-year commitment to invest more than $1 billion in pro bono services brings our talent, expertise, and insight to organizati
50、ons tackling todays urgent challenges in education, racial equity, social justice, economic development, and the environment. Since our founding in 1973, we have measured our success by the success of our clients, and we proudly maintain the highest level of client advocacy in the industry. For more
