1、中国中国“十三五十三五”能源发展展望能源发展展望China Energy Development Outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period中国澳门中国澳门 Macao,China 26 November,2014韩文科韩文科国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所Han WenkeDirector General,Energy Research Institute,NDRC China第三届国际清洁能源论坛The 3rd International Forum for Clean Energy2014/11/22Outline一、当
2、前的中国能源经济形势1.The current situation of Chinas energy economy二、“十三五”能源政策框架和发展展望2.Energy policy framework and development outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period 2014/11/22Outline一、当前的中国能源经济形势1.The current situation of Chinas energy economy二、“十三五”能源政策框架和发展展望2.Energy policy framework and development ou
3、tlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period 2014/11/22经济经济发展处于发展处于“三期叠加三期叠加”进入新常态进入新常态Economic development is“three period superimposed”and enters the“new normal”伴随经济发展进入新常态，中国的能源供需形势也出现了重大的变化。2014年前三季度，能源消费增量、增速出现不同程度的下降，国内能源产量与去年基本相当，部分品种甚至出现负增长，能源供需总体宽裕，煤炭、电力、炼油能力出现不同程度的富余，能源价格稳中走降，预计2014年全年能源供应总体宽松，
4、能源产销保持低增长的态势。There have been significant changes in Chinas energy supply and demand pattern along with the“new normal”of Chinas economic growth pace.The incremental growth and growth rate of energy consumption declined in the first 3 quarters of 2014.Domestic energy production is at the similar leve
5、l as last year,with several products seeing negative growth.Energy market is overall loose,with different levels of excess supply capacity of coal,power and refinery.Energy prices are stable with downward trend.It is expected that the annual energy supply for 2014 will be loose and energy sales will
6、 maintain low growth.一次能源消费总量年增量由2003-2011年的平均2.1亿tce，降至2012-2013年的平均1.3亿tce。Annual incremental growth in primary energy consumption reduced to 130Mtce in 2012-13,from an annual average of 210Mtce during 2003-11.一次能源消费增量下降一次能源消费增量下降Increment declines in primary energy consumption 能源消费增速由2003-2011年平均
7、8.1%降至2012-2013年不到4%Annual growth rate of energy consumption reduced to less than 4%in 2012-13 from an annual average of 8.1%during 2003-11.一次能源消费增速下降一次能源消费增速下降Growth rate declines in primary energy consumption煤炭消费增速由2003-2011年平均8.5%降至2012-2013年的2.6%Annual growth rate of coal consumption reduced to
8、2.6%in 2012-13 from an annual average of 8.5%during 2003-11.煤炭消费增速下降煤炭消费增速下降Growth rate declines in coal consumption电力消费增速由2003-2011年的年均11.1%下降到2012-2013年的4.2%Annual growth rate of power consumption reduced to 4.2%in 2012-13 from an annual average of 11.1%during 2003-11.电力消费增速下降电力消费增速下降Growth rate d
9、eclines in power consumption 2013年，非化石能源发电装机占总装机容量的比例提高到了30.9%，非化石能源发电量占到了总发电量的21.6%。预计，2014年中国的非化石能源发电装机比重将会达到32.7%。The power installed capacity of non-fossil energy increased to 30.9%of the total installed capacity.The power generated by non-fossil energy was 21.6%of the annual total in 2013.It is
10、 expected that the power installed capacity of non-fossil energy will account for 32.7%in 2014.非化石能源增长情况非化石能源增长情况Growth in non-fossil energy sources2013年年中国各类非化石能源比重中国各类非化石能源比重Share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption in 2013NuclearHydropowerWind power PVBiomass2014/11/22Outline一、当前的中国能
11、源经济形势1.The current situation of Chinas energy economy二、“十三五”能源政策框架和发展展望2.Energy policy framework and development outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period 总体战略和主要任务总体战略和主要任务Overall strategy and major tasks节能优先立足国内绿色低碳驱动创新 增强自主保障能力 推进能源消费革命 优化能源结构 深化国际合作 推进科技创新Giving priority to energy conservationRe
12、lying on domestic sourcesGreen and low carbon developmentPromoting innovation Enhancing domestic energy supply capability and security Pushing forward energy consumption revolution Optimisation of the energy structure Deepening international cooperation Promoting technology innovation“十三五十三五”能源发展目标（
13、能源发展目标（1 1）Goals of energy development in 13th Five-Year Plan period(1)1.节约节约优先，控制能源消费总量优先，控制能源消费总量 单位GDP能耗进一步降低（比2005下降42%）严格控制能源消费总量（48亿tce以内）严格控制煤炭消费（42亿吨）2.进一步进一步增强国内供应能力增强国内供应能力 进一步提升国内生产能力（42亿tce）保持合理的能源自给率（85%左右）1.Giving priority to conservation and control total energy consumption Energy int
14、ensity reduction(energy consumption per unit of GDP drop by 42%from 2005)Strict control of total energy consumption(4.8Btce)Strict control of coal consumption(4.2 Billion tons)2.Further enhancing domestic supply capability Further increase of domestic production(4.2Btce)Maintain a reasonable energy
15、self-sufficiency rate(85%)3.进一步进一步推进绿色低碳发展推进绿色低碳发展 继续大力发展非化石能源（实现15%的目标）进一扩大天然气利用（力争10%目标）进一步降低煤炭比重（62%以下）高标准实现CO2减排目标4.大力大力发展替代能源和扩大进口发展替代能源和扩大进口 发展煤基替代石油等 扩大天然气进口能力3.Further promoting green and low carbon development Vigorously developing non-fossil energy(realise the goal of 15%)Expanding natural
16、 gas use(aim for 10%)Reducing weight of coal in energy mix(40GW by 2015,18GW in construction.Installed capacity in operation 58GW by 2020,30GW in construction.Major policy initiatives on nuclear power Implementing“Nuclear Safety Plan”,keeping safety the top priority Reviewing“China nuclear power dev
17、elopment plan Medium long term-optimising the layout and insisting on quality first深化国际合作的主要举措深化国际合作的主要举措Measures on deepening international cooperation 实施全球化的能源战略 提升国际竞争力 增强国际话语权 统筹深化国际合作 Implementation of globalised energy strategy Improving international competitiveness Enhancing international voice Co-ordination and deepening international cooperation 谢谢 Thank you
