1、罗斯公司理财原书第七版全册罗斯公司理财原书第七版全册 配套教学课件配套教学课件 (2) Increase revenue growth to 5% per annum Increase operating margin from 10% to 15% by 2004 Deliver an incremental 2.7billion in operating profit by 2004 Path to Growth identifies what we will do to deliver on our promises to shareholders: Provide Unilever w
2、ith the platform to deliver sustainable growth Unilever Note: Figures do not include Bestfoods 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q4 97Q1 98Q2 98Q3 98Q4 98Q1 99Q2 99Q3 99Q4 99Q1 00Q2 00Q3 00 Unilever Peer Group Unilever Share Price Performance v Peer Group Shadow (Based on Quarterly Average Share prices) Why d
3、o we need the Path to Growth? The Market is concerned about our ability to execute our strategy Peer Group: Beiersdorf,Avon, Cadbury, Clorox, Coca Cola, Colgate, Danone, Eridania, Gillette, Heinz, Kao, Lion, LOreal, Nestle, P they are intrinsically satisfying and rewarding e.g. achievement The Icebe
4、rg Model Necessary but not sufficient Distinguish effective performance Skill Knowledge Values Self-Image Traits Motives Acquired capability Deeper seated traits and motives A competency: any characteristic of a person that differentiates outstanding from more typical performance in a given job, rol
5、e, organization or culture. Competencies are: observable and measurable behavioural characteristics that can be developed based on the business needs of today and tomorrow factors which drive superior performance in a given job How was the LGP developed? Step 1: Was developed by a rigorous research
6、process: Assessment of Unilevers business context, the challenges facing leaders and the capabilities needed to achieve growth In-depth research of 39 Unilever growth leaders Interviews and feedback from colleagues Comparison of the Unilever growth leadership characteristics to a world-class benchma
7、rk sample Large international organisations Achieved substantial growth in own sectors Result: LGP was rolled out to WL6 and 5 in 2000 How was the LGP developed? Step 2: Focus groups and interviews with WL2, 3 and 4 in 14 countries around the world Tested relevance and made relevant adjustments Resu
8、lt: Now rolling out to all WL2+ managers across Unilever How were the Criteria Established? Original Research Compared and Contrasted Two Groups Current Superior Leaders Current Outstanding Leaders Baseline Competencies Both groups show Distinguishing Competencies Only outstanding show How were the
9、External Benchmarks used? Compared both groups to competencies required to meet the future strategy and against the external benchmark population External benchmark of world class leaders Current Superior Leaders Baseline Competencies Distinguishing Competencies Potential Vulnerabilities Even the be
10、st need to show more Current Outstanding Leaders What makes a world-class leader of growth? World-class leaders of growth: Driven by bigger ambition and drive for step change Generate and encourage big thinking Are highly street smart and savvy Think and act over a longer term perspective Energise o
11、thers for significant change Demonstrate a greater focus on individuals - developing, empowering and holding them accountable Use highly effective influencing strategies to gain support: they know how to orchestrate the organisation - colleagues, bosses, their teams How does Unilever measure up? Alt
12、hough the best of the Unilever sample demonstrates these behaviours and creates growth orientated climates, we are often still more controllers than enablers in our leadership style. We are good, but we know we can be better How is the LGP different? Directly related to our current business agenda -
13、 Growth Externally benchmarked against the best One set of competencies for all levels Creates a focus on development of outstanding leaders at every level It is easily modified to support future new business goals As a result, LGP will replace the Effective Unilever Manager competencies Achieves th
14、rough integrity, teamwork and learning Self Confident Integrity Team Commitment Learning from Experience Possesses the intellectual power to determine direction Ensures that direction is market driven Delivers through people Acts decisively to improve performance Clarity of Purpose Practical Creativ
15、ity Objective Analytical Power Market Orientation Leading Others Developing Others Influencing Others Entrepreneurial Drive Builds Commitment to Growth Strategic Influencing Team Commitment Team Leadership Drives for Growth Seizing the Future Change Catalyst Developing Self limited partners may have
16、 some voting rights. Taxation Double Partners pay taxes on distributions. Reinvestment and dividend payout Broad latitude All net cash flow is distributed to partners. Liability Limited liability General partners may have unlimited liability. Limited partners enjoy limited liability. Continuity Perp
17、etual life Limited life 1-67 1.4 Goals of the Corporate Firm The traditional answer is that the managers of the corporation are obliged to make efforts to maximize shareholder wealth. 1-68 The Set-of-Contracts Perspective The firm can be viewed as a set of contracts. One of these contracts is betwee
18、n shareholders and managers. The managers will usually act in the shareholders interests. The shareholders can devise contracts that align the incentives of the managers with the goals of the shareholders. The shareholders can monitor the managers behavior. This contracting and monitoring is costly.
19、 1-69 Managerial Goals Managerial goals may be different from shareholder goals Expensive perquisites Survival Independence Increased growth and size are not necessarily the same thing as increased shareholder wealth. 1-70 Separation of Ownership and Control Board of Directors Management Assets Debt
20、 Equity Shareholders Debtholders 1-71 Do Shareholders Control Managerial Behavior? Shareholders vote for the board of directors, who in turn hire the management team. Contracts can be carefully constructed to be incentive compatible. There is a market for managerial talentthis may provide market dis
21、cipline to the managersthey can be replaced. If the managers fail to maximize share price, they may be replaced in a hostile takeover. 1-72 1.5 Financial Markets Primary Market When a corporation issues securities, cash flows from investors to the firm. Usually an underwriter is involved Secondary M
22、arkets Involve the sale of used securities from one investor to another. Securities may be exchange traded or trade over-the-counter in a dealer market. 1-73 Financial Markets Firms Investors Secondary Market money securities Sue Bob Stocks and Bonds Money Primary Market 1-74 Exchange Trading of Lis
23、ted Stocks Auction markets are different from dealer markets in two ways: Trading in a given auction exchange takes place at a single site on the floor of the exchange. Transaction prices of shares are communicated almost immediately to the public. 1-75 1.6 Outline of the Text I.Overview II.Value an
24、d Capital Budgeting III.Risk IV. Capital Structure and Dividend Policy V.Long-Term Financing VI. Options, Futures and Corporate Finance VII. Financial Planning and Short-Term Finance VIII. Special Topics 2-76 CHAPTER 2 Accounting Statements and Cash Flow 2-77 Chapter Outline 2.1 The Balance Sheet 2.
25、2 The Income Statement 2.3 Net Working Capital 2.4 Financial Cash Flow 2.5 The Statement of Cash Flows 2.6 Summary and Conclusions 2-78 Sources of Information Annual reports Wall Street Journal Internet NYSE () Nasdaq () Text () SEC EDGAR 10K usually taken to be a two- year to five-year period. 2. A
26、 Level of Aggregation Each division and operational unit should have a plan. As the capital-budgeting analyses of each of the firms divisions are added up, the firm aggregates these small projects as a big project. 3-114 3.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning? Scenario Analysis Each division might
27、 be asked to prepare three different plans for the near term future: A Worst Case A Normal Case A Best Case 3-115 What Will the Planning Process Accomplish? Interactions The plan must make explicit the linkages between investment proposals and the firms financing choices. Options The plan provides a
28、n opportunity for the firm to weigh its various options. Feasibility Avoiding Surprises Nobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan. 3-116 3.2 A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients 1.Sales forecast 2.Pro forma statements 3.Asset requirements 4.Financial requirements 5.Plug 6.Economic assumptio
29、ns 3-117 Sales Forecast All financial plans require a sales forecast. Perfect foreknowledge is impossible since sales depend on the uncertain future state of the economy. Businesses that specialize in macroeconomic and industry projects can be help in estimating sales. 3-118 Pro Forma Statements The
30、 financial plan will have a forecast balance sheet, a forecast income statement, and a forecast sources-and- uses-of-cash statement. These are called pro forma statements or pro formas. 3-119 Asset Requirements The financial plan will describe projected capital spending. In addition it will the disc
31、uss the proposed uses of net working capital. 3-120 Financial Requirements The plan will include a section on financing arrangements. Dividend policy and capital structure policy should be addressed. If new funds are to be raised, the plan should consider what kinds of securities must be sold and wh
32、at methods of issuance are most appropriate. 3-121 Plug Compatibility across various growth targets will usually require adjustment in a third variable. Suppose a financial planner assumes that sales, costs, and net income will rise at g1. Further, suppose that the planner desires assets and liabili
33、ties to grow at a different rate, g2. These two rates may be incompatible unless a third variable is adjusted. For example, compatibility may only be reached is outstanding stock grows at a third rate, g3. 3-122 Economic Assumptions The plan must explicitly state the economic environment in which th
34、e firm expects to reside over the life of the plan. Interest rate forecasts are part of the plan. 3-123 The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet: 1.Express balance-sheet items that vary with sales as a percentage of sales. 2.Multiply the percentages determine in step 1 by projected sales t
35、o obtain the amount for the future period. 3.When no percentage applies, simply insert the previous balance-sheet figure into the future period. 3-124 The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet: (continued) Present retained earnings + Projected net income Cash dividends Projected retained ea
36、rnings 5. Add the asset accounts to determine projected assets. Next, add the liabilities and equity accounts to determine the total financing; any difference is the shortfall. This equals the external funds needed. 6. Use the plug to fill EFN. 4. Computer Projected retained earnings as 3-125 A Brie
37、f Example The Rosengarten Corporation is think of acquiring a new machine. The machine will increase sales from $20 million to $22 million 10% growth. The firm believes that its assets and liabilities grow directly with its level of sales. Its profit margin on sales is 10%, and its dividend-payout r
38、atio is 50%. Will the firm be able to finance growth in sales with retained earnings and forecast increases in debt? 3-126 A Brief Example Current Balance Sheet Pro forma Balance Sheet (millions) Explanation Current assets $6 $6.6 30% of sales Fixed assets $24 $26.4 120% of sales Total assets $30 $3
39、3 150% of sales Short-term debt $10 $11 50% of sales Long-term debt $6 $6.6 30% of sales Common stock $4 $4 Constant Retained Earnings $10 $11.1 Net Income Total financing $30 $32.7 $300,000 Funds needed (millions) 3-127 The Percentage Sales Method: EFN The external funds needed for a 10% growth in
40、sales: p = Net profit margin = 0.10 d = Dividend payout ratio = 0.5 DSales = Projected change in sales = $2 million 3-128 The Percentage Sales Method: EFN The external funds needed 3-129 3.4 What Determines Growth? Firms frequently make growth forecasts on explicit part of financial planning. On the
41、 other hand, the focus of this course has been on shareholder wealth maximization, often expressed through the NPV criterion. One way to reconcile the two is to think of growth as an intermediate goal that leads to higher value. Alternatively, if the firm is willing to accept negative NPV projects j
42、ust to grow in size, the shareholders (but not necessarily the mangers) will be worse off. 3-130 3.3 What Determines Growth? There is a linkage between the ability of a firm to grow and its financial policy when the firm does not issue equity. The Sustainable Growth Rate in Sales is given by: 3-131
43、The Sustainable Growth Rate in Sales T = ratio of total assets to sales p = net profit margin on sales d = dividend payout ratio A good use of the sustainable growth rate is to compare a firms sustainable growth rate with their actual growth rate to determine if there is a balance between growth and
44、 profitability. 3-132 Uses of the Sustainable Growth Rate A commercial lender would want to compare a potential borrowers actual growth rate with their sustainable growth rate. If the actual growth rate is much higher than the sustainable growth rate, the borrower runs the risk of growing broke and
45、any lending must be viewed as a down payment on a much more comprehensive lending arrangement than just one round of financing. 3-133 Increasing the Sustainable Growth Rate A firm can do several things to increase its sustainable growth rate: Sell new shares of stock Increase its reliance on debt Re
46、duce its dividend-payout ratio Increase profit margins Decrease its asset-requirement ratio 3-134 3.5 Some Caveats of Financial Planning Models Financial planning models do not indicate which financial polices are the best. They are often simplifications of realityand the world can change in unexpec
47、ted ways. Without some sort of plan, the firm may find itself adrift in a sea of change without a rudder for guidance. 3-135 Summary I/YR; PV; PMT; FV Use this menu to value things with level cash flows, like annuities e.g. student loans. It can even be used to value growing annuities. The cash flow
48、 menu CFj et cetera Use the cash flow menu to value lumpy cash flow streams. 4-189 Problems You have $30,000 in student loans that call for monthly payments over 10 years. $15,000 is financed at seven percent APR $8,000 is financed at eight percent APR and $7,000 at 15 percent APR What is the interest rate on your portfolio of debt? 15,000 + = 30,000 7% 8,000 30,000 8% + 7,000 30,000 15% Hint: dont even think about doing this:
