1、Photovoltaic Solar EnergyFuturesPresented to the Minnesota Futurists16 May 2009 Dick Saunders and David KeenanBut first a word from our sponsorThe Futurist Toolof the dayTrend Analysis and ExtrapolationTrend Analysis&ExtrapolationA Method Everyone Uses Trend analysis involves the use of any of a var
2、iety of techniques based on historical data.Trend analysis involves several processes.One process is spotting an emerging trend,that is,identifying a change in the world around us.Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is and what its implications might be.You could fir
3、st look at historical data crab.rutgers.edu/goertzel/futuristmethods.htmTrend Analysis&ExtrapolationTrend Analysis&Extrapolation Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend forward.You have to ask,what is causing this trend,and will those causes continue indefinitely?A
4、re there upper limits to the trend?What other forces may affect the trend?At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than objective extrapolation of historical data.Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will continue in the same direction and
5、 rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to understand the future.It can not,however,be the end of our endeavors,or we would end up with absurd results.crab.rutgers.edu/goertzel/futuristmethods.htmTrends to Analyze in This Talk Solar Cells Market size Market share Sales Units Power produced
6、 Cost per power deliveredAgenda The Sun Solar Cells Background How they work Types Markets Costs Countries Companies QuestionsNow on with the showEnergy from the SunAbout half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earths surface.The Earth receives 174 petawatts(PW)(1015 watts)of incoming solar radia
7、tion at the upper atmosphere.Approximately 30%is reflected back to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds,oceans and land masses.Earths land surface,oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation,and this raises their temperature.Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land masses keeps the surface at
8、 an average temperature of 14 C.By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical energy,which produces food,wood and the biomass from which fossil fuels are derived.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energyBreakdown of incoming solar energy en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incom
9、ing_solar_energy.svgEnergy from the SunYearly Solar fluxes&Human Energy Consumption The total solar energy absorbed by Earths atmosphere,oceans and land masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules(EJ)(1018 joules)per year.(70%of incoming sunlight)(1 Joule=energy required to heat one gram of dry,cool
10、 air by 1 C)Primary energy use(2019)487 EJ (0.0126%)Electricity(2019)56.7 EJ (0.0015%)Therefore a good target 2019,more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet
11、is so vast that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all of the Earths non-renewable resources of coal,oil,natural gas,and mined uranium combined.As intermittent resources,solar and wind raise issues.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energySolar Cells Background1839-French p
12、hysicist A.E.Becquerel first recognized the photovoltaic effect.Photo+voltaic=convert light to electricity1883-first solar cell built,by Charles Fritts,coated semiconductor selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.1954 -Bell Laboratories,experimenting with semiconductors,a
13、ccidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very sensitive to light.Daryl Chapin,Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson,invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful electrical power.Resulted in the production of the first practical solar cells with a sunligh
14、t energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.1958-First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cellPV Solar for ElectricityPhotovoltaicsFor the 2 billion people without access to electricity,it would be cheaper to install solar panels than to extend the
15、electrical grid.(The Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing market for photovoltaics.The United Nations estimates that more than 2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply,refrigeration,lighting,and ot
16、her basic needs,and the cost of extending the utility grids is prohibitive,$23,000 to$46,000 per kilometer in 1988.A one kilowatt PV system*each month:prevents 150 lbs.of coal from being mined prevents 300 lbs.of CO2 from entering the atmosphere keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed keeps N
17、O and SO2 from being released into the environment*in Colorado,or an equivalent system that produces 150 kWh per monthsolarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.htmlHow Solar Cells Work en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svgPhotons in sunlight hit the solar panel and ar
18、e absorbed by semiconducting materials,such as silicon.Electrons(negatively charged)are knocked loose from their atoms,allowing them to flow through the material to produce electricity.An array of solar cells converts solar energy into a usable amount of direct current(DC)electricity.Solar Cells Bac
19、kgroundThree generations of solar cellsSolar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates the order of which each became important.At present there is concurrent research into all three generations while the first generation technologies are most highly represented in commercial produ
20、ction,accounting for 89.6%of 2019 production.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cellSolar Cells BackgroundFirst Generation Single Junction Silicon Cells89.6%of 2019 Production 45.2%Single Crystal Si 42.2%Multi-crystal SILarge-area,high quality and single junction devices.High energy and labor inputs which
21、limit significant progress in reducing production costs.Single junction silicon devices are approaching theoretical limit efficiency of 33%.Achieve cost parity with fossil fuel energy generation after a payback period of 57 years.(3.5 yr in Europe)Single crystal silicon-16-19%efficiencyMulti-crystal
22、 silicon-14-15%efficiencyen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08Silicon Cell Average EfficiencySolar Cells BackgroundSecond Generation Thin Film Cells CdTe 4.7%&CIGS 0.5%of 2019 ProductionNew materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost.As man
23、ufacturing techniques evolve,production costs will be dominated by constituent material requirements,whether this be a silicon substrate,or glass cover.Thin film cells use about 1%of the expensive semiconductors compared to First Generation cells.The most successful second generation materials have
24、been cadmium telluride(CdTe),copper indium gallium selenide(CIGS),amorphous silicon and micromorphous silicon.Trend toward second gen.,but commercialization has proven difficult.2019-First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar cells,5th largest producer in 2019 and the first to reach top 10 from of se
25、cond generation technologies alone.2019-Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS technology producing 15 MW.2019-Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2019 with a production .capacity of 430 MW for 2019 in the USA and Germany.2019-Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.CdTe 8
26、11%efficiency(18%demonstrated)CIGS 7-11%efficiency(20%demonstrated)Payback time 1 year in Europeen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08Solar Cells BackgroundThird Generation Multi-junction CellsThird generation technologies aim to enhance poor electrical perfo
27、rmance of second generation(thin-film technologies)while maintaining very low production costs.Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60%while retaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques.They can exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single
28、 energy threshold material,31%under 1 sun illumination and 40.8%under the maximal artificial concentration of sunlight(46,200 suns).Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use of multijunction photovoltaic cells,concentration of the incident spectrum,the use of thermal generati
29、on by UV light to enhance voltage or carrier collection,or the use of the infrared spectrum for night-time operation.Typically use fresnel lens(3M)or other concentrators,but cannot use diffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardwareMulti-junction cells 30%efficiency(40-43%demonstrated)en.wikipedi
30、a.org/wiki/Solar_cell and epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08Global Cumulative PV Powerepia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2019.pdfGlobal Annual PV Marketepia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2019.pdfSolar Cell Market
31、 Estimate-First Generation-Second Generation -Third Gen-SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source Yole Development Global Annual PV Market Outlookepia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2019.pdfSolar PV Market OutlookSEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Gener
32、ation V Sept 08 epia.orgby 2030 8.9%of Global Energy,1,864 GW Production Capacity,2,646 TWh Electricity Cost Projectionsepia.org EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept 08$1.35$1.07$0.81$0.54$0.27$0.13-$/kWh“Grid parity where PV cost are equal to residential electricity costs is expected to be achieved
33、first in southern European countries and then to move northCumulative installed solar electric power by 2019 1st Germany 3.8 GW 2nd Japan 1.9 GW 3rd US 814 MW 4th Spain 632 MWWorlds largest photovoltaic(PV)power plants(12 MW or larger)Name of PV power plant Country DCPeakPower(MW)GWh/year Notes Olme
34、dilla Photovoltaic ParkSpain6085Completed September 2019Puertollano Photovoltaic ParkSpain502019Moura photovoltaic power stationPortugal4693Completed December 2019Waldpolenz Solar ParkGermany4040550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe modules.Completed Dec 2019Arnedo Solar PlantSpain34Completed October 2
35、019Merida/Don Alvaro Solar ParkSpain30Completed September 201917 more 2 moreSpainKoreaAvg 20Avg 20KoethenGermany14.7513200,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe modules.Completed Dec 2019Nellis Solar Power PlantUSA14.023070,000 solar panelsPlanta Solar de Salamanca6 more Spain,1 US,1 GermanySpain13.8Avg 12
36、n.a.70,000 Kyocera panelsen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationsLarge systems in planning or under constructionName of Plant CountryDCPeakPower(MW)GWh/year Notes Rancho Cielo Solar FarmUSA600Thin film silicon from Signet Solar*Topaz Solar Farm USA5501,100Thin film silicon from OptiSolar*Hi
37、gh Plains Ranch USA250550Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with tracking*Mildura Solar concentrator power stationAustralia154270Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells from Spectrolab*KCRD Solar FarmUSA80Scheduled to be completed in 2019*DeSoto County,FloridaUSA25To be constructed by SunPower for
38、 FPL Energy,completion date 2009.*Davidson County solar farmUSA21.536 individual structures*Cdiz solar power plantSpain20.136*Kennedy Space Center,FloridaUSA10To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,completion date 2019.*Under construction;*Proposed en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stat
39、ionsSpainBlessed with almost year-round sunshine,Spains socialist government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource.In an effort to encourage private individuals and companies to install solar power,Spain introduced subsidies of 0.42 per kilowatt per hour($0.57/KWhr)(feed-in tariff and off
40、-grid subsidies)But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy in September,a move which is likely to face opposition from within the solar energy industry.2019:26,800 employees in Spanish solar companiesguardian.co.uk/environment/2019/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2019 e
41、pia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2019Olmedilla Solar Park60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol with modules from Silikinsiliken/clientes_proyectos/instalaciones/ficha?contentId=572Germany10,000 companies,including installers work in solar PV80 companies are cell and module makers42,000
42、employeesSales were$5.7 B including$2.5 B in exportsThe feed-in tariff 2019 German utilities pay$0.47 to$0.68/kWh depending on type and size of system for new solar systemsUtilities pass cost to consumers Germany average is$1.65/monthepia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2019Waldpolenz Solar ParkTh
43、e Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200 soccer fields,the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into the power grid when fully operational in 2009.In the start-up phase,the 130-million-euro($201 million)plant it will have a capacity of 24 megawatts,according
44、 to the Juwi group,which operates the installation.The facility,located east of Leipzig,uses state-of-the-art,thin-film technology.Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used,of which 350,000 have already been installed.The direct current produced in the PV solar modules will be converted into alter
45、nating current and fed completely into the power grid.After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energy needed to build it,according to the Juwi group.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.htmlWaldpolenz Solar Parkdw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.htmlWaldpolenz Solar
46、 Parklumbergusa/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpgUnited States2019-PV production grew in all areas of US marketUS leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearly half the global production2019 about 50,000 employeesCA dominates with 60%of installed capacityVarious st
47、ate Renewable Portfolio Standards(RPS)and Federal Investment Tax Credits(ITC)are incentives.Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV costs to grid parity by 2019epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2019Renewable Energy Consumption in the US Energy Supply,2019eia.doe.gov/cneaf/s
48、olar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.htmlChart Data Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nations Energy Supply,2019(Quadrillion Btu)ConsumptionShareTotal US101.545 Coal22.77622%Natural Gas23.63723%Petroleum39.77339%Nuclear Electric Power8.4158%Renewable Energy:6.8137%Of which
49、:Hydroelectric2.44636%Geothermal Energy0.3495%Biomass3.59653%Solar Energy0.0811%Wind Energy0.3415%eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xlsUS Solar Industry DataSize of U.S.Market2019-U.S.had about 8,800 megawatts(MW)of installed solar capacity.1,100 MW of photovoltaics(PV),418 MW
50、 of utility-scale concentrating solar power,485 MWTh(megawatts thermal equivalent)of solar water heating systems 7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.Ranking of U.S.Market:Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2019.1st Germany 3.8 GW,2nd Japan 1.9 GW,3rd US 814 MW,4th Spain 632 MWGrowth o
