1、 宏观经济学发展史Classical Economics Dates back to the late 1700s.Rooted in the laissez faire writings of Adam Smith,David Ricardo,and Jean Baptiste Say.Classical Economics Unemployment is a natural part of the business cycle.The economy is self-correcting.Most important,there is no need for the government
2、to intervene.The Great Depression The stock market crashes in 1929.Gross Domestic Product fell by almost a third between 1929 and 1933.25%of the work force was unemployed.Business investment fell from about$16 billion in 1929 to$1 billion by 1933.The Birth of Keynesian EconomicsThe Keynesian View Jo
3、hn Maynard Keynes flatly rejected the Classical notion of a self-correcting economy and warned that patiently waiting for the eventual recovery was fruitless because“in the long run,were all dead.”The Keynesian View Keynes believed that under certain circumstances,the economy would not naturally reb
4、ound反弹 but simply stagnate淤塞 or,even worse,fall into a death spiral漩涡.The Keynesian Cure To Keynes,the only way to get the economy moving again was to prime注入 the economic pump 泵with increased government expenditures.Thus,fiscal policy was born and the Keynesian prescription became the underlying of
5、 Franklin Delano Roosevelts New Deal.The Kennedy Tax Cut In 1962,Heller recommended to Kennedy that the President advocate a large tax cut to stimulate the sluggish偷懒的缓慢的 economy.Congress eventually agreed,and this Keynesian tax cut helped make the 1960s one of the most prosperous 繁荣decades in Ameri
6、ca.The Foundation of Stagflation This fiscal stimulus laid the foundation for the emergence of stagflation simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment.The Roots of Stagflation The stagflation problem had it roots in President Lyndon Johnsons stubbornness顽固的.The Roots of Stagflation In the late
7、 1960s,against the strong advice of his economic advisors,Johnson increased expenditures on the Vietnam War but refused to cut spending on his Great Society social welfare programs.This refusal helped spawn a virulent 剧毒的种子“demand pull”inflation.Demand-Pull Inflation The essence of demand-pull infla
8、tion is“too much Money chasing too few goods,”and that exactly what happened when the U.S.tried to finance both“guns and butter”-both the Vietnam War and the Great Society.Demand-Pull InflationCost-Push Inflation Cost-push or supply side inflation occurs when factors such as rapid increases in raw m
9、aterial prices or wage increases drive up production costs.This can happen as a result of so-called“supply shocks”such as those experienced in the early 1970s.During this period such shocks included crop failures,a worldwide drought,and a quadrupling 四倍的of the world price of crude oil.Cost-Push Infl
10、ationA Budding Paradox悖论的萌芽 Prior to the 1970s,economists didnt believe you could even have both high inflation and high unemployment at the same time.If one went up,the other had to go down.But the 1970s proved economists wrong on this point and likewise exposed Keynesian economics as incapable of
11、solving the new stagnation problem.The Keynesian Dilemma Using expansionary policies to reduce unemployment simply created more inflation while using contractionary policies to curb制止 inflation only deepened the recession.That meant that the traditional Keynesian tools could solve only half of the s
12、tagflation problem at any one time-and only by making the other half worse.The Rise of Monetarism It was this inability of Keynesian economics to cope with应对 stagflation that set the stage for Professor Milton Friedmans Monetarist challenge to what had become the Keynesian orthodoxy正统学说.Friedmans Mo
13、netarist School The problems of both inflation and recession may be traced to one thing-the rate of growth of the money supply.Inflation happens when the government prints too much money and recessions happen when it prints too little.The Monetarist Perspective Stagflation is the inevitable 不可避免的res
14、ult of activist fiscal and monetary policies that try to push the economy beyond its so-called“natural rate”or,more technically,its“lowest sustainable unemployment rate.”This natural rate of unemployment is the lowest level of unemployment that can be attained without upward pressure on inflation.Ac
15、cording to the Monetarists,expansionary attempts to go beyond this lowest sustainable unemployment rate may result in short run spurts 迸发of growth.However,after each growth spurt,prices and wages rise and drag the economy back to its natural rate of unemployment.Some Bitter Medicine苦方 Over time,thes
16、e futile无意的无效的 attempts to push the economy beyond its natural rate lead to an upward inflationary spiral.In this situation,Monetarists believe that the only way to wring inflation and inflationary expectations out of the economy is to have the actual unemployment rate rise above the natural rate of
17、 unemployment and that means inducing a recession.Inducing a Recession This is at least one interpretation of what the Federal Reserve did beginning in 1979 under the Monetarist banner of setting monetary growth targets.Under Chairman Paul Volcker,the Fed adopted a sharply contractionary monetary po
18、licy and interest rates soared高扬提高 to over twenty percent.While the Feds bitter medicine worked,three years of hard economic times left a bitter taste in the mouths of the American people now hungry for a sweeter macroeconomic cure than either the Keynesians or Monetarists could offer.Enter stage ri
19、ght:supply side economics.A Sweeter Economic CureThe Coming of Ronald ReaganThe Supply Side Philosophy On the surface,the supply side approach looks very similar to the kind of Keynesian tax cut prescribed in the 1960s to stimulate a sluggish economy.However,the supply siders viewed such tax cuts fr
20、om a very different behavioral perspective.The Behavioral DifferenceThe Behavioral DifferenceA Lower Budget Deficit The loss in tax revenues from the tax cut would be less than offset by the increase in tax revenues from increased economic growth.Thus,under supply side economics,the budget deficit w
21、ould actually be reduced.The End Result Unfortunately,that didnt happen.While the economy boomed so,too,did Americas budget deficit.And as the budget deficit soared,Americas trade deficit soared with it.George Bushs Burden These so-called“twin deficits”deeply concerned Reagans successor George Bush,
22、particularly after the budget deficit jumped over$200 billion at the midpoint of his term in 1990,and the economy began to slide into recession.To Keynesians,this recession would have been a clear signal to engage in expansionary policy.However,in the Bush White House,Reagans Supply Side advisors ha
23、d been supplanted代替 by so-called“New Classicals.”New Classical Economics New Classical economics is based on the controversial有争议的 theory of“rational expectations.”This theory says that if you form your expectations“rationally,”you will take into account all available information including the futur
24、e effects of activist fiscal and monetary policies.Rational Expectations The idea behind rational expectations is that such activist policies might be able to fool people for a while.However,after a while,people will learn from their experiences,and then you cant fool them at all.The central policy
25、implication of this idea is profound:rational expectations render activist fiscal and monetary policies completely ineffective so they should be abandoned.理性预期使财政和货币政策完全失效Some Bad Politics Well talk more about whether this theory is good economics or not in a later lesson,but it was clearly bad poli
26、tics at least for President Bush.Indeed,Bushs New Classical advisors flatly rejected any Keynesian“quick fix”to the deepening recession.Instead,they called for more“stable and systematic”policies based on long term goals rather than a continued reliance on“short-sighted discretionary 随意的reactions.”T
27、he Economy StupidRestored Confidence What is perhaps most interesting about this transition of power is that Bill Clinton actually did very little to stimulate the economy.The mere fact,however,that Clinton promised a more activist approach helped restore business and consumer confidence.At the same
28、 time,Congressional passage of Clintons deficit reduction legislation in 1993 sent Wall Street a clear signal that his Administration was serious about budget balance.Together,these factors helped accelerate a recovery that had already begun by the end of Bushs term.These factors also set the stage
29、for Clintons remarkably easy re-election in 1996 as well as the longest economic recovery in peace time history.On the Bright Side As we enter a new millennium千年,the nations macroeconomic magicians appear to be able to keep the unemployment rate within a relatively narrow band of tolerance容忍.Macroec
30、onomics Big Questions Is there any way to simultaneously stimulate economic growth,boost real income,and balance both the budget and trade deficits using the traditional tools of macroeconomics?Or will macroeconomics have to once more evolve to successfully solve the increasingly complex problems be
31、fore us?Towards the 21st Century These are the major macroeconomic issues now faced by leaders around the globe.We will help you try to understand these important questions by teaching you the science-and art-of macroeconomics.Economics is not something to be memorized but rather something to conceptualize使概念化.So as you study it,think about it too.Your job and your business might just depend upon it.In The Meantime
