1、READYFORINSPECTION THEAUTOMOTIVEAFTERMARKETIN2030June 20183Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030READYFORINSPECTION THEAUTOMOTIVEAFTERMARKETIN20305CONTENTSStaggering facts about changes in the aftermarket.6Executive summary.8Introduction.111.Key figures and characteristics of the af
2、termarket.132.Ten trends and their disruptive effect on the ecosystem.172.1 Changes in customer expectations and value generation.172.2 Emergence of next-generation vehicles.212.3 Shifts in competitive power.262.4 The compound effect of these trends on the aftermarket ecosystem.273.Recommendations f
3、or aftermarket players.353.1 OEMs to secure core business and strengthen their independentaftermarket position.363.2 Suppliers to explore alternative sales,branding,and pricing strategies.393.3 Parts distributors to intensify their digital service offerings.413.4 Workshops to build capabilities to c
4、ope with increasing complexity.444.Getting started on your aftermarket journey.47Authors.49Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030Contents6STAGGERINGFACTSABOUTCHANGESINTHEAFTERMARKETCars willrecommendlocation forservicing 58%of customer in the US,Germany,Brazil,and ChinawouldobeyOnli
5、ne B2C sales of auto-motive parts and accessoriesin North America and Europeare expected to account for10-15%of the overall aftermarketby 2020Modern high-end carsoftware has100millionlines of code andwill double to300millionlines by 2020,makingsoftware capabilitiesin the aftermarketincreasingly impo
6、rtantReady for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030The Chinese automotive aftermarketwill grow much faster than new-carsales,with8%CAGRuntil 2030 vs.4%CAGRfor new-car salesStaggering facts about changes in the aftermarket7on German aftermarketThe proliferation of electricvehicles will have
7、anegativegrowtheffectof2-11%revenues by 2025Over the last 5 years,the North Americanmarket saw more thanoftheM&AtransactionslargestEuropeanIAMdistributorshavebeen involvedinM&Aandconsolidationactivities during the past 5 yearsof aftermarket experts70%expect new digital players(e.g.,Google,Amazon,and
8、eBay)to gain a significantshare of revenues andprofits of the automotiveaftermarket by 2030Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030Staggering facts about changes in the aftermarket8EXECUTIVESUMMARYThe global automotive aftermarket has a current business value of approximatelyEUR 800 b
9、illion and is expected to grow 3 percent annually,to about EUR 1,200 billionby 2030.In the next few years,ten trends will fundamentally change the industry:Changes in customer expectations and value generation1.Digitization of channels and interfaces2.Big data and analytics becoming new sources of v
10、alue generation3.Increasing importance of professionally managed fleets4.Rise of emerging markets and a new service mindsetEmergence of next-generation vehicles5.Electrification shrinking the profit pool6.Increasing importance of software requiring new competencies7.Autonomous driving leading to few
11、er accidents but shorter maintenance intervals8.Connected vehicles enabling predictive maintenanceShifts in competitive power9.New players entering the market10.Further acceleration of industry consolidation and integration.These changes have three major effects:disruption along the value chain,a ch
12、ange in endcustomer access,and a shift in profit pools.Disruption along the value chain will not only be driven by existing industry players,butalso by new entrants.Software and electric vehicle(EV)component manufacturers willenter at the beginning of the chain.In addition,e-commerce and digital pla
13、yers will disruptthe traditional parts distributor business,and workshops will witness the proliferation ofspecialized players(e.g.,EV or fleet maintenance).Start-ups and incumbents will fulfill rolesas intermediaries,seizing opportunities to connect customers and services in new ways.The new value
14、chain design will translate into higher price transparency for the customeracross the entire value chain.New touch points will be created,giving new entrants accessto end customers and threatening to reduce end customer access for other players.Furthermore,customers will increasingly rely on automat
15、ed systems and recommendations.Lastly,there will be a shift from private to business needs due to the increased share ofprofessional fleet operators in the aftermarket.As a consequence,profit pools might shift significantly between whole value chain steps.Based on the estimated impact of trends such
16、 as EV,connected cars,and e-commerce,over EUR 100 billion,or 30 to 40 percent,of aftermarket profits could be subject toredistribution along the value chain in 2030.The shifts will be bidirectional for eachstakeholder group,and the new distribution will depend on how the respective stakeholdersmanag
17、e to position themselves in the new aftermarket ecosystem.Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030Executive summary9We believe these disruptive effects present each stakeholder with a clear mandate forchange.We suggest that all major players take pragmatic action to help them prepare
18、forthe new industry landscape and take full advantage of the opportunities.OEMs to secure core business and strengthen their independent aftermarket position.Inorder to protect market share and sales volume,OEMs need to become more customer-centric and enhance their approach to customer segmentation
19、 and experience.Additionally,the introduction of multichannel strategies will help defend the top line against entrants withdigital genes.Shifting focus to the aftermarket in emerging markets is another lever thatneeds to be pulled.As the share of older vehicles grows,OEMs need to look further beyon
20、dnew-car sales and become more involved in the traditional playing fields of the independentaftermarket.Suppliers to explore alternative sales,branding,and pricing strategies.Suppliers candevelop additional sales channels to increase direct customer access.Successful industryexamples include the int
21、roduction of a second price line with a differentiated brand,forward integration along the value chain,or providing garage concepts to a broad rangeof workshops.At the same time,suppliers should also actively respond to competitivepressure and consolidation through,for example,partnerships with the
22、strongestdistributors or digital players,or by following multibrand strategies.Parts distributors to intensify their digital service offerings.Embracing digital and analytics isone important commitment that will ensure incumbent parts distributors do not get edgedout by new players with digital gene
23、s.For distributors,a digital and analytics focus caninclude an optimization of their own online platforms,tapping into big data analyses,andparticipating in the platform game for customer data.Distributors are also advised to choosea suitable growth strategy:smaller players may occupy profitable nic
24、hes while large playersneed to focus on organic and inorganic growth to achieve the necessary scale and maintainhigh entry barriers.Workshops to professionalize to cope with increasing complexity.Investing in recruiting,training,and equipment will be key for workshops in developing their ability to
25、managethe increasing technological complexity of next-generation vehicles.On the customer-facing side,they should invest in enabling a digital customer journey and,at the same time,consider a brick-and-mortar makeover to build on a new customer service mindset.Finally,workshops should explore ways t
26、o clearly position themselves versus competing networks.*The impact from these trends will significantly affect the future landscape of the automotiveaftermarket industry.It is now time for all value chain players to take action to shape thefuture industry landscape,ensure their competitiveness,and
27、perhaps even expand intountapped profit pools.Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030Executive summary10Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 203011INTRODUCTIONDramatic changes are ahead for the automotive aftermarket,a segment that has been amajor and stable profit cont
28、ributor to the automotive industry in general.These includechanging customer expectations,accelerated adoption of new technologies,and shifts incompetitive power.Thus,value creation and business models in the automotive aftermarketwill also be fundamentally reshaped by these changes.In the mature ma
29、rkets of North America and Europe,the pace of consolidation willaccelerate,and competition will arise from unexpected players for instance,digital nativespursuing opportunities to move into the automotive aftermarket space.In emerging markets,whole new areas of consumer needs will arise and pressure
30、 aftermarket companies torespond.The advent of new technologies and the market shifts that accompany them are compellingaftermarket players to assess their positions and be strategic about maintaining positions ofstrength in a fast-changing environment.Learning from past disruptions in other industr
31、ies,we know that not having the requisite strategies to cope with these disruptions can lead todecline not just for individual,established corporations but for whole subindustries.But asmuch as experts agree that significant changes are ahead,a big picture of all trends andideas to face them still n
32、eeds to be developed.This McKinsey report aims to illuminate the changes and disruptive trends that theautomotive aftermarket is going to face in the coming years and provide answers to some ofthe key questions that these trends pose to all players:Which trends will impact the automotive aftermarket
33、 and how will the aftermarket valuechain be disrupted?How will customer involvement and the customer journey change?How will the profit pools shift along the value chain?What are the initial steps aftermarket players should take in order to be prepared?In discussing the current situation(Chapter 1),
34、the trends(Chapter 2),and recommendedpragmatic actions(Chapter 3),we rely on our various McKinsey project experience,analyses,industry expertise,and insights derived from interviews with more than 40 expertsand executives in the automotive aftermarket.Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket
35、in 2030Introduction12OEMnetworkIndependent aftermarket(IAM)131.KEYFIGURESANDCHARAC-TERISTICSOFTHEAFTERMARKETThe automotive aftermarket is facing major disruption in the coming years.Not having acomprehensive perspective or fully understanding the consequences of this disruption canlead to the declin
36、e of whole sub-businesses,as we have witnessed in other industries suchas print media,mobile phones,and cameras.This report aims at proving a comprehensiveperspective on the disruptive trends and giving initial action recommendations for the keystakeholders.For the purposes of this report,the afterm
37、arket is comprised of all postsalesbusinesses.The two segments of service(i.e.,maintenance and repair)on one side andthe retail and wholesale parts business on the other are pretty evenly split in terms of value.Beyond these basics,the aftermarket has a few other key characteristics:Market structure
38、At its most fundamental level,the set of aftermarket companies is split between twocategories the OEM network and the independent aftermarket(IAM).Within each ofthese categories,five distinct but interacting stakeholder groups are represented:partsmanufacturers,parts distributors,workshops,intermedi
39、aries,and end customers(Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1The automotive aftermarket comprises a diverse set of established and new playersExample GermanyParts manu-facturersOEMsVW,BMW,Daimler,etc.BuyinggroupsATR,CARAT,etc.SuppliersBosch,Hella,ZF,etc.Genericmanu-facturersWorkshopsOEM garagesand franchiseddealersP
40、arts distributorsOEM sales units andaffiliated distributorsIntermediariesEnd customersInsuranceAllianz,HUK,etc.PrivateBusinessFleetAuto centersand fast fitsA.T.U,Pitstop,etc.System chainsAutoCrew,Meisterhaft,etc.Small garagesAutomobileclubsADAC,etc.LeasingALD,etc.Routingportals Fair-Garage,etc.Indep
41、en-dent dist-ributorsLKQ,Wessels+Mller,Autodis,Alliance,etc.OnlinedistributorsAmazon,eBay,kfzteile24,etc.Ready for inspection the automotive aftermarket in 2030Key figures and characteristics of the aftermarket14Market sizeMcKinsey estimates the aftermarket value in 2017 to be approximately EUR 800
42、billion.Business in North America accounted for approximately 270 billion of global revenue,Europe was second at approximately EUR 240 billion,and business in China generatedapproximately EUR 90 billion(Exhibit 2).Exhibit 2McKinseys proprietary modeling of the automotive aftermarket imputes a total
43、valuefor 2017 of EUR 800 billionEUR billionsTodayTraditional autoaftermarket businessFutureAftermarket affectedby emerging marketsand new technologies(EVs,connectivity,AVs)North America and Europemake up the largest part of theglobal automotive aftermarket,but Asia will be the growthdriver going for
44、wardWe expect the aftermarket toincrease to EUR 1,200 billionby 2030However,this growth willlikely be tempered by severalautomotive industry trendsRest of worldRest of AsiaChinaEuropeNorth America8031107919124227220171,196113419723329533720303%p.a.CAGR,%1.86.17.51.51.7Ready for inspection the automo
45、tive aftermarket in 2030Key figures and characteristics of the aftermarketMarket developmentWe expect the overall automotive aftermarket to grow at roughly 3 percent p.a.,reachingapproximately EUR 1,200 billion by 2030.A few disruptive trends,however,will have strongand opposing influences on the de
46、velopment of this market and the distribution of valueacross players.Shared mobility will be one of the factors increasing the annual maintenancespend for shared vehicles due to a higher annual distance driven.On the other end limitingthe markets growth EVs will likely require lower maintenance effo
47、rts,and crash repair spendon autonomous vehicles(AV)is also expected to potentially decrease by up to 90 percentper vehicle by 2030.We expect these opposing trends to result in a net decrease in theaftermarket value per vehicle due to the dominance of EV and AV.1Inflation-adjusted,including all serv
48、ices and parts(e.g.,also tires)151Year end 20172 Annual growth 2010-25(expected)3 Based on expert interviews4 Western and Central Europe5 CIS states,Turkey,Oceania,Middle East,Africa,South AmericaRegional growthDifferences in aftermarket growth by region are largely a function of market maturity(Exh
49、ibit 3).Specifically,emerging markets will see growth rates that exceed those of consolidatedmarkets.It is the skyrocketing rate of car ownership in China that will increase Asias shareof the global automotive aftermarket to more than a third(EUR 430billion)as early as 2030.Between service and parts
50、,it is the service market that will exhibit stronger growth as the ageof the average vehicle in China increases.In mature markets,growth in the aftermarket was only in the 1 to 2 percent range over the lastdecade.This modest growth is expected to continue,leading to revenue of approximatelyEUR 340 b
