1、资源配置、资源错配与生产率中国经济分析1目录 资源配置与资源错配：一个研究前沿？资源配置的基本概念 资源配置的基本原理 资源配置和错配的实证分析 可能的研究方向中国经济分析2资源配置：概念 有哪些资源？劳动力、资本（信贷、股权资本）、自然资源、知识（技术、技巧know how）、信息政府税收、公共品、。资源稀缺性 资源配置主体 企业、农民、消费者、劳动力（低技能、高技能劳动力）、资本所有者、政府、第三方中介组织，。资源配置的范围 企业层面、地区层面、国家层面、国际层面 静态、动态 资源配置的机制3中国经济分析资源配置：基本原理 计划经济 计划、共有产权、政府主导 市场经济 价格、竞争、私有产权
2、、市场协调、政府弥补市场失灵 米塞斯与兰格的争论：自由市场经济、社会主义、市场社会主义的效率 各种资源配置方式有效率的前提条件 充分信息、充分理性、。中国经济分析4资源配置和资源错配：实证分析 资源再配置(Reallocation)与经济增长：中国经济改革和发展的实践 农村改革 市场化和国有企业改革 资本市场、信贷市场与金融改革 劳动力市场 人力资本深化：教育、医疗 土地资源配置 市场开放、生产要素地区间流动、产业地区间分工和一体化 政府职能转变中国经济分析5资源配置与生产率 资源配置：生产函数中的投入、产出和全要素生产率 新古典经济学中资源配置有效率的含义 Individual produc
3、tion function Aggregate production function Key assumption behind the construction of the aggregate production function is that all factor markets are perfect Key properties:ownership of factors does not matter given that an aggregate production function exists and concavity中国经济分析6资源配置与生产率:Convergen
4、ce Production function constant returns/concave/increasing Assumption:Capital markets are perfect,people borrow and lend as much as they want at the common going rate,r,the marginal returns to capital must be the same for everybody in the economy Logic of convergence:Poor countries should grow faste
5、r as they have higher return on the capital stock,however the reality is different Failure of the convergence:Failure of the assumptions that underlie the construction of the aggregate production Suggestion:Alternative approach to growth theory that abandons the aggregate production.中国经济分析7资源错配:Phys
6、ical capital High interest rates in poor countries Share of default risk on the level of interest rate is not so huge suggest that people are willing to pay high interest rates for loans used for productive purpose,which suggests that the rates of return to capital are indeed high in developing coun
7、tries,at least for some people.Marginal product in some firms is 50%or 100%or even more does not imply that the average of the marginal products across all firms is nearly as high Average of the marginal rates of return across firms does not appear to be that high.This suggests a coexistence of very
8、 high and very low rates of return in the same economy.中国经济分析8资源错配:Human capital No evidence that returns to education are much higher when education is lower,although the relationship is indeed negative Teacher salary grows less fast than GDP,and the cost of education is thus not proportional to GD
9、P Teachers are relatively more expensive in poor countries(larger class size)Returns to one more year of education are therefore no higher in poor countries中国经济分析9资源错配:Human capital中国经济分析10Investment rates中国经济分析11 India:MPK 22%,(AU/AI)=2,(yU/yI)=6.35 Lucas argued,the actual rates of returns in India
10、 are much lower Lower investment-to-GDP ratio,when expressed in PPP,is explained by the low relative price of consumption,relative to investment Hsieh and Klenow(2003)No correlation between government expenditure on education as a fraction of GDP and rate of returns to education Banerjee and Duflo(2
11、005)Many instances where investments options with very high rates of returns do not seem to be taken advantage of Goldstein and Udry(1999)(Pineapple),Duflo et al.(2003)(Fertilizer)资源错配:Productivity gap and technology Low TFP in poor countries not because the wrong technology but because firms are to
12、o small to benefit from the best technologies,McKinsey Global Institute(2001)资源错配:Externalities in human capital Tend to limit the extent of diminishing returns with respect to human capital in the production function Investment in the education may have negative pecuniary externalities on other Duf
13、lo(2003)中国经济分析12 资源错配:Coordination failure Coordinated big push,where all industries start together,can place the country on a permanently higher level of investment and income 资源错配:Government failure Hypothesis that governments protect investors not enough or by protecting some of them excessively
14、Excessive intervention,Banerjee and Duflo(2004):Small firms subsidized by government but below optimal scale while for medium firms above the cut-off the investment would be extremely profitable Property rights and legal enforcement中国经济分析13资源错配:Other issues Role of credit constraints Problems in the
15、 insurance markets Local externalities(herd behavior and investment decisions of family)Behavioral issues(vouchers for fertilizers)中国经济分析14Effect of distortions on productivity Across-the-board inefficiency,because everyone could have chosen the wrong technology or the wrong product mix Misallocatio
16、n of capital across firms:Differences in productivity across firms,either because of differences in scale,or because of differences in technology or because some entrepreneurs are more skilled than others Goal:Set-up and calibrate a simple model,to investigate whether the misallocation of capital ac
17、ross firms within a country can explain the aggregate puzzles中国经济分析15Model with diminishing returns中国经济分析16Model with diminishing returns中国经济分析17Model with fixed costs中国经济分析18可能的研究方向 The lessons of development economics will be lost to growth if they are not brought together in an aggregate context.
18、In other words,it is not enough to use them to loosely motivate cross-sectional growth regression exercises a better empirical understanding of where the most important sources of inefficiency lie and better integration of this understanding when we assess the predictions of growth theory We have no
19、 models that,for example,incorporate reputation-building or learning into growth theory.The same can be said about the entire class of behavioral models of underinvestment.Finally,there is the open question of whether we gain anything by building grand models that incorporate all these different rea
20、sons for inefficiency in a single model.中国经济分析19中国经济分析20Hsieh,Klenow-2009-Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and IndiaPreferences and Technology中国经济分析21Preferences and Technology(continued)中国经济分析22中国经济分析23产出方面的扭曲资本投资方面的扭曲How to Measure TFP?中国经济分析24中国经济分析25Plant TFPs中国经济分析26The Different Be
21、havior of TFP Measures中国经济分析27Sectoral TFPs中国经济分析28Sectoral TFPs(continued)中国经济分析29Summary of Results中国经济分析30Summary of Results(continued)中国经济分析31Summary of Results(continued)中国经济分析32Summary of Results(continued)中国经济分析33中国经济分析34中国经济分析35中国经济分析36中国经济分析37中国经济分析38中国经济分析39中国经济分析40中国经济分析41中国经济分析42中国经济分析43
22、中国经济分析44main results are the following中国经济分析45 On average,the misallocation of factors across provinces and sectors resulted in a reduction of non-agricultural TFP of at least 20%,with the within-province distortions accounting for more than half of the total loss.TFP losses from between-province di
23、stortions were relatively constant over the entire period.Despite significant inter-provincial labour flows,the TFP loss from between-province labour market distortions remains high due to an increase in the cross-province dispersion in TFP.The measure of within-province distortions declined sharply
24、 between 1985 and 1997,contributing to 0.52%nonagricultural TFP growth per year,but then increased significantly in the last ten years,reducing the non-agricultural TFP growth rate by 0.5%a year.Almost all of the within-province distortions was due to the misallocation of capital between the state a
25、nd the non-state sectors,which increased sharply in recent years.A framework for measuring factor market distortions中国经济分析46an economy with m provinces,indexed by i=1,.,m,and two sectors,state and non-state,indexed by j=s,n,assume that provincial GDP is a CES aggregate of goods produced in the two s
26、ectors and the aggregate GDP is a CES aggregate of provincial GDPs Factor allocation and aggregate TFP中国经济分析47 Efficient allocation and TFP losses from distortions中国经济分析48中国经济分析49 For any given allocation and the associated aggregate and provincial TFP Aand Ai,we can then measure proportional TFP lo
27、sses due to distortions in the aggregate and in a province as follows:consider three distortions:province-specific output wedges and sector-province specific capital and labour wedges.empirical evidence on province-sector differences in returns to labour and capital and geographical differences in p
28、rices 中国经济分析50 Firms problem中国经济分析51Here is a wedge between marginal cost and marginal revenue of using Yiin aggregate production.We will simply call it the output wedge of province i.中国经济分析52中国经济分析53中国经济分析54 Identification of wedges中国经济分析55中国经济分析56中国经济分析57中国经济分析58 The evolution of factor market dis
29、tortions over time中国经济分析59中国经济分析60中国经济分析61中国经济分析62中国经济分析63 Conclusion Despite significant increases in factor mobility,our analysis suggests that China continues to suffer high TFP losses arising from factor market distortions.After declining during the first decade and a half of reform and contribu
30、ting positively to aggregate non-agricultural TFP growth,these distortions have increased significantly since 1997,reducing aggregate non-agricultural TFP growth by half a percent a year.By 2007,these distortions were lowering aggregate non-agricultural TFP by at least a quarter.Within province dist
31、ortions arising from the favoured treatment of the state-sector vis-a-vis the non-state sector are the most important source of these distortions.There is also a marked“regional”dimension to them,with the distortions and the consequent TFP losses more severe in the central and western provinces.中国经济
32、分析64 A case can be made that much of this is related to the central governments efforts to redistribute capital to these provinces through a highly inefficient state sector.Reversing this troubling trend in the misallocation of capital should be of high priority on the governments agenda of future economic reforms and could be an important potential source of Chinas aggregate productivity growth in the near future中国经济分析65future directions中国经济分析66课后作业 阅读中文关于资源配置错配文献，总结出中文文献的研究结果有哪些？有哪些方面可以进行进一步的研究？参考文献请见百度云。中国经济分析67
