1、Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and BondsBrief Saying This paper identifies Five common risk factors in the return on stocks and bonds Two stock market factors, two bond market factors, one market factor. The five factors seems to explain all returns in stock market and bond market Exce
2、pt the Low-Grade BondsAgenda Introduction The Steps of the Experiment Data & Variables Main Result ConclusionIntroduction The market s of Sharpe-Litner, and Breedons consumption s show little relation of the Cross-Sectional average returns on U.S common stocks. Empirical variables determined average
3、 returns are: Size, Leverage, E/P, BE/ME Banz(1981), Bhandari(1988), Basu(1983), and Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein(1985) Introduction If the market is aggregated, there must be some common factors which can explain both the common stock market and bond market . But for bond market, the factors used
4、to explain common stock market may not appropriate. So, the new variables are introduced in this paper The Steps for the ExperimentChoose the Data from DatabaseSort the data by “Size” and “BE/ME” Test the bond factors on market excess returnTest the market factors on market excess returnTest the sto
5、ck factors on market excess returnTest the stock factors + market factors on market excess returnTest all factors on market excess returnTest the adjusted market factors on market excess returnTo be continuedData & Variables Data From 1963 to 1991 At least appeared on COMPUSTAT for two years Stock p
6、rice in December on t-1 year and June on t year in CRSP, and book equity in December on t-1 year on COMPUSTAT Data &VariablesLOWMEDIANHIGHSMALLS/LS/MS/HBIGB/LB/MB/HLowest 30%Medium 40%Highest 30%Divided by Median of NYSEBE/MESIZEData &Variables In experiment, the sample will separate into 25 portfol
7、ios First ranked by size, than by BE/MEData & Variables Why sorting data by SIZE & BE/ME into those number of groups? The test for these criteria are not sensitive in Fama&French(1992) After grouping the data, we can start to define the experimental variablesData & VariablesNAMEDescriptionRFOne-Mont
8、h T-bill rateRMAverage of all 25 Portfolios monthly returnSMBSmall-Minus-Big = AVG(S/L + S/M + S/H) AVG(B/L + B/M +B/H), in percentage, monthly.HMLHigh-Minus-Low=AVG(S/H + B/H) AVG(S/L + B/L ), in percentage, monthly.TERMLong-Term government bond RF, in percentage, monthly.DEFReturn of market portfo
9、lio of long-term corporate bonds Long-Term government bond, in percentage, monthlyMain Result Bond Market FactorMain Result Bond Market TestMain Result Market FactorMain Result Market FactorMain Result Stock Market FactorMain Result Stock Market FactorMain Result A short break Even though the market
10、 factor, , seems have explained most part of the variance of stock market, the result still leave room to improve. But ,indeed, it capture more common variation for both market. The bond market factors work well in capturing the common variation of bond market and stock market.Main Result A short br
11、eak The stock market factors, used alone, cannot explain the variation of bonds well. But they have some ability to explain the variation of stock market. How about mix the stock market factors with market factor?Main Result Stock Market Factors + Market FactorMain Result Stock Market Factors + Mark
12、et FactorMain Result Adding the stock market factors makes the market move closed to 1. Thats probably because the RM Rf have some correlation with HML and SMB. What if all five factors?Main Result All FactorsMain Result All FactorsMain Result All FactorsMain Result Five factors regression seems hav
13、e the contradicted result The ability of bond market factors for capturing common variation seems lost . Why? The market factor might be the killer.Adjusted Test If there are multiple factors in stock returns, they are all in RM. Break down the RM The sum of intercept and residuals in (1) , called R
14、MO, is the orthogonal market return, means it is uncorrelated with the other four factors We use it to re-exam the result have shown Adjusted TestAdjusted TestAdjusted TestTest for Avg. Premium In this part, we will test whether the five factors can explain the average premiums on bond and stock mar
15、kets. If the five factors are suffice to explain the average returns in market, the intercept should be indistinguishable from 0.Test for Avg. PremiumTest for Avg. PremiumTest for Avg. PremiumTest for Avg. Premium The intercept in regression on market factor shows the average premium is affected by
16、SIZE and BE/ME The market cannot explain this But, the market factor is needed to explain why average returns are higher then one-month T-bill rate In three factor regression, the intercept is closed to 0, this means RM-Rf, HML, SMB can explain the market return well This is a strong support for Thr
17、ee-Factor Model Test for Avg. Premium The TERM and DEF, have little effect on explaining the average premium, although they seem to works well on explaining stock return when used alone. That may because the average return for TERM and DEF are small, but their high volatility can absorb the common v
18、ariation well. So, they can explain the common variation well, but cannot do it as well in average premium The Bond Market Factors Do the low premiums of TERM and DEF mean that they are irrelevant with a well-specified asset-pricing model? Not really, the two factors are affected by business cycle,
19、so, even if the two factors are lack to explain the average premium, they still play a role in model. Conclusion The RMO, which is uncorrelated with the other four factors, slopes are all closed to 1 on 25 portfolios, and can be viewed as the premium for being a stock. The slope for RMO is similar t
20、o RM Rf, so the function of explaining the cross-sectional return are left to SMB and HML Slope for SMB (in Table 8)can explain why small stocks returns are much volatilieConclusion As above, the slope for HML can demonstrate the lowest BE/ME portfolio are volatile than the highest BE/ME portfolio BE/ME is negative correlated with Profitability The slope for HML can prove this Five factors do a good job on explaining the whole markets return But for evaluating the cross-sectional average stock returns, the three-factor model will be a good alternativeAppendix: Table2Appendix: Table 2
